Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part XXXVII

[txpd]

No doubt he's one of the best, but when people say we are wasting him i think its a little silly. He's not much more impressive than tavares, toews, kane, giroux, kessel, etc. he's just another one of the great forwards in the league. So your not super lucky to land one of those.

Ov scored 50 goals last season. You put him in the same class as Kessel?

 

[SimplySensational]

The discussions on this board get more inane by the day...

Seriously though, 0 discussion in this topic about the fact Dreger said the Oilers GM would love to trade Eberle.

 

[Ajax1995]

I agree you don't have to be the favorite, but do you believe this team as constructed stands a chance to challenge for a cup?

Of course not but my guess is 20 games into the season many of the fans of those teams that ended up going deep from the lower part of the draw didn't think they had a shot either.

 

[um]

Ov scored 50 goals last season. You put him in the same class as Kessel?

well i said Ovie is more impressive, but let's not act like they are in an entirely different class.

 

[Ajax1995]

This isn't sustainable.

What exactly isn't sustainable?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

What exactly isn't sustainable?

Changing coaches/systems every 18 months and peaking at round two, game 7 five years ago. The franchise has shown no progress in 5 years and a reasonable person will eventually ask to leave or just stay home.

 

[trick9]

The discussions on this board get more inane by the day...

Seriously though, 0 discussion in this topic about the fact Dreger said the Oilers GM would love to trade Eberle.

Of course he would. They have 4 players (all forwards !) that have value and the second he trades one of those 1st overall picks he is going to get the boot because their values are nowhere near you'd expect from recent 1st overall picks. Well to be fair Hall still has tons of value but he's the only elite player they have.

Oilers have good top line (well duh 2 1st overall picks and Eberle), Perron and some good 4th liners who are paid like 2nd line forwards. Their goaltending isn't going to carry them anywhere and that defense is worse than Caps had last season.

 

[Ajax1995]

Changing coaches/systems every 18 months and peaking at round two, game 7 five years ago. The franchise has shown no progress in 5 years and a reasonable person will eventually ask to leave or just stay home.

Ok but I don't think Trotz is here for an 18 month gig and I don't see him radically changing his system either. So I do think there will be some much needed stability over the next few years. Will that make a difference in the results? I guess we will see...

 

[Ajax1995]

Teams like the Kings, Flyers and Rangers in various years were underachievers during the regular season based on rosters and expectations.

Outside of the Rangers that is such revisionist garbage.

The Kings missed the playoffs 6 seasons in a row, went out in the 1st round twice, were out of a playoff spot 29 games into the season, canned their coach, were still out of a playoff spot b/c they couldn't score to save their lives, rolled the dice on Carter who helped their offense just enough to sneak in. 22 games into the season nobody was saying this team has a legit chance go deep.

The Flyers and their vaunted 3 headed monster goaltending crew of Boucher, Emery and Leighton were out of a playoff spot 26 games into the season, canned their coach, barely got into the playoffs on the last day b/c of a winner takes the 8th spot SO victory over the Rangers, watched the top seeded Caps and defending champ Pens get Halaked and then beat the not actually all that good Habs to get to the finals. Nobody saw that coming and definitely not 22 games into that season.

 

[txpd]

The discussions on this board get more inane by the day...

Seriously though, 0 discussion in this topic about the fact Dreger said the Oilers GM would love to trade Eberle.

Hadn't seen that. Any truth to it?

 

[Langway]

1. Holtby is proven to be capable of stealing a playoff series. He has battled toe to toe with Lundqvist twice and Tim Thomas. He remains capable of those things.

He remains capable yet he hasn't matured. That's a problem.

2. The Caps have offensive players that can steal a short series themselves. Ovechkin and Backstrom could perform at a Conn Smythe level. They have players like Ward and Chimera who have carried a team to playoff wins. Oprik is far more likely to be an impact playoff contributor now than two seasons from now.

Backstrom has never really shown a Conn Smythe type level and looks even less likely these days. It's one thing to win a round every year or two and another to have the fortitude to win multiple rounds and progressively improve. This team has never had that level of focus/stamina and the core is less impressive each year it seems.

I'm on board with Vermette but it would likely require Laich or Brouwer going the other way (plus) for cap reasons. That impacts the net upgrade and their overall depth a bit...but still ought to be done of course.

I would much rather keep the pending ufa's and be a 7 seed than trade them for futures and get younger and miss the playoffs.

Of course those aren't the only possibilities. They could also hope for the best and miss the playoffs once again. They could also move one or two of the pending UFAs, add other players while keeping more of a longer view and still make the playoffs.

I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting tanking and selling off right this moment. The Metro division ought to keep them at least competitive. The four teams below them aren't threats IMO. But are they better than Toronto? I don't think so at this point so finishing fourth in the Metro probably won't assure them anything.

 

[txpd]

Can we really say that about THIS Caps squad? That if they got in as a 6-8 seed they would truly be undervalued?

Plus, the team that wins the Cup is usually seeded 1 through 4. If the Caps make the finals as a low seed and lose, is it worth holding on to UFAs that could've been dealt?

1. This team has given up numerous points on underperforming Holtby play. If Holtby plays to career norms how much better do they look?

2. How much better a team are they in March with a full season of growth under the belts of Kuz, Bura and Wilson?

3. How much better is the team playing after a full season of playing under the new coach?

I have a hard time buying into this team at Thanksgiving being all there is there.

4. Lose in the Cup finals or miss the playoffs. as a fan....I would choose playing in the finals. Maybe that is just me.

Put all your eggs in one basket and OV takes a slap shot off the helmet in round one game one and they lose the series.

The way you win is putting yourself in a position to win as often as you can. That's how you win. Hunter put the team in a position to win and they had a legit shot. The Caps losing to Montreal wasn't a big issue til the team collapsed under the weight of the embarrassment. Had they been mentally strong like the Bruins after they blew a three games to none lead, they would have been right back in a position to win.

This core has advanced to the second round with a legit chance to win 3 times and come up short.

Would trade Ov today for one good shot at the cup. roll 7s or crap out?

 

[g00n]

Outside of the Rangers that is such revisionist garbage.

The Kings missed the playoffs 6 seasons in a row, went out in the 1st round twice, were out of a playoff spot 29 games into the season, canned their coach, were still out of a playoff spot b/c they couldn't score to save their lives, rolled the dice on Carter who helped their offense just enough to sneak in. 22 games into the season nobody was saying this team has a legit chance go deep.

The Flyers and their vaunted 3 headed monster goaltending crew of Boucher, Emery and Leighton were out of a playoff spot 26 games into the season, canned their coach, barely got into the playoffs on the last day b/c of a winner takes the 8th spot SO victory over the Rangers, watched the top seeded Caps and defending champ Pens get Halaked and then beat the not actually all that good Habs to get to the finals. Nobody saw that coming and definitely not 22 games into that season.

No it's not garbage, you just have a bad memory.

Everyone knows the Rags and Flyers were loading up and reloading all the time, and the Kings were preseason faves because of their big roster moves. You need to consider the preseason expectations, not the season performance. You can't cite bad records as proof that a team wasn't underachieving. Duh. That's the whole point.

Prior to the 2011-2012 season the Kings were in the top 5 in most power rankings I saw. Here's one where they were 4th in the NHL as late as September, right before the season started:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ng-all-30-nhl-teams-preseason-edition/page/28

Their 13th overall seed that year going in was due to their underperformance in the regular season, not their talent level or expectations. The Devils were actually more of an overachieving team that year than the Kings due to lower expectations.

Prior to the 2009-2010 season the Flyers were highly regarded. Here's BR again with them ranked 3rd in the East:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...tern-conference-standings-predictions/page/14

So again, are the Caps on that level and just underperforming? Is anyone ranking this team top 5 before the year starts??

 

[txpd]

He remains capable yet he hasn't matured. That's a problem.

Backstrom has never really shown a Conn Smythe type level and looks even less likely these days. It's one thing to win a round every year or two and another to have the fortitude to win multiple rounds and progressively improve. This team has never had that level of focus/stamina and the core is less impressive each year it seems.

I'm on board with Vermette but it would likely require Laich or Brouwer going the other way (plus) for cap reasons. That impacts the net upgrade and their overall depth a bit...but still ought to be done of course.

Of course those aren't the only possibilities. They could also hope for the best and miss the playoffs once again. They could also move one or two of the pending UFAs, add other players while keeping more of a longer view and still make the playoffs.

I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting tanking and selling off right this moment. The Metro division ought to keep them at least competitive. The four teams below them aren't threats IMO. But are they better than Toronto? I don't think so at this point so finishing fourth in the Metro probably won't assure them anything.

If that is how you feel about Backstrom, then maybe its time to trade Backstrom.

If the idea is to get younger, then maybe its time to trade both 19 and 8 and just start from scratch.

of course I am not sure why you sign Orpik and Niskanen if the idea is to reset with young players as your new core that need 3 seasons or more to mature to being the foundation of a quality team.

 

[txpd]

So again, are the Caps on that level and just underperforming? Is anyone ranking this team top 5 before the year starts??

The Flyers that season were a mess. Fired the coach. Lavy would get them going and they would fall into another losing streak. As I recall they limped into the playoffs. Not with a 9-1 run or something.

Are the Caps at that level and just underperforming? Friedmann seemed to sound like he thought there were a team to be make some noise as the season grows.

Friedmann said that the Caps look like they are working a program to be better for the playoffs. That Trotz is conditioning them not to win in the RS but be prepared for the playoffs. If that is the case, they must think something is there to compete with.

 

[Langway]

If that is how you feel about Backstrom, then maybe its time to trade Backstrom.

If the idea is to get younger, then maybe its time to trade both 19 and 8 and just start from scratch.

I think that's why you truly try to refresh the supporting cast up front first. If it's still stale then it will become clear that probably needs to happen. (I don't really have high hopes that their pro scouting is capable of finding the right fits up front but I'd at least give them the chance first. There's also coaching to wonder about too unfortunately.)

of course I am not sure why you sign Orpik and Niskanen if the idea is to reset with young players as your new core that need 3 seasons or more to mature to being the foundation of a quality team.

Because Trotz wanted to stem the history of neglecting the position by overcompensating. From there at least in theory there's defensive stability to the point where they can evaluate forward and goaltending better. What we're seeing is not a great deal of cohesion and not very many high motor or well-rounded forwards (no surprise). I don't think signing Orpik or Niskanen should have any bearing on an honest assessment of their forward makeup or their deadline plans. It's about truly understanding windows and potentially about restructuring further. Like I said, I don't really expect significant restructuring because if MacLellan is just a figurehead for Trotz then Trotz probably won't want to sell at the very least.

8, 19, 25, 42 & 74 are established players that can play better 5-on-5 than they have. Will they? No one can possible know if time is all that's needed. Thus far outside of 43, 88 & 90 there's been no improvement going on relative to the last year and quite arguably more players than that going in the wrong direction. Burakovsky & Kuznetsov could fade from a long physical year just as easily as figure it out. We don't know. That's what the next 40 games are for.

 

[txpd]

nobody can possibly know at this point. correct. either way.

 

[Ajax1995]

You need to consider the preseason expectations, not the season performance.

Decent preseason expectations means a team is a legit contender? Seriously...? Give me a ****ing break. You don't have to look any further than many a preseason expectation for the team who's board we are posting on to know that stuff means squat.

 

[g00n]

Decent preseason expectations means a team is a legit contender? Seriously...? Give me a ****ing break. You don't have to look any further than many a preseason expectation for the team who's board we are posting on to know that stuff means squat.

Are you missing the point on purpose now that you've been proven wrong in your statement? Teams with recognized talent are typically ranked higher going into a season. This is sports 101. Teams with a higher ceiling that underperform in the regular season and hit their stride for the playoffs aren't your typical low seeds just getting in where "anything can happen". And when the question is "buy or sell" regarding your UFA's, and people are looking at those successful low seeds for comparison, it's worth asking whether or not you're ANYTHING LIKE THEM.

 

[Ajax1995]

Blah blah blah...

Find me anything, even something from an authority like the Bleacher Report, roughly a quarter through either of those seasons that said those teams were going deep?

Neither had even gotten their coach fired yet.

The Kings hadn't traded for Carter yet and the Flyers hadn't traded for Ville 'you're not going to believe the contract I'm going to sign in a couple years' Leno, Michael 'sometimes confused for Ken Dryden' Leighton, and Krajicek yet. Leno put up over a point a game in those playoffs, Krajicek played every game but one, and Leighton became their number 1.

Firing your coach is a major in season change. Adding a Carter or 3 regulars are major in season changes. Those teams made major in season changes to just get into the playoffs and then go on a run.

Do I think the Caps are going deep if they stand pat? Nope but neither of those teams would have either if they had stood pat. Could the Caps change their fortunes with a couple major in season changes? Without a doubt IMO. Now do I think those kind of changes are likely to be made? What do you think...?

 

[g00n]

Find me anything, even something from an authority like the Bleacher Report, roughly a quarter through either of those seasons that said those teams were going deep?

Neither had even gotten their coach fired yet.

The Kings hadn't traded for Carter yet and the Flyers hadn't traded for Ville 'you're not going to believe the contract I'm going to sign in a couple years' Leno, Michael 'sometimes confused for Ken Dryden' Leighton, and Krajicek yet. Leno put up over a point a game in those playoffs, Krajicek played every game but one, and Leighton became their number 1.

Firing your coach is a major in season change. Adding a Carter or 3 regulars are major in season changes. Those teams made major in season changes to just get into the playoffs and then go on a run.

Do I think the Caps are going deep if they stand pat? Nope but neither of those teams would have either if they had stood pat. Could the Caps change their fortunes with a couple major in season changes? Without a doubt IMO. Now do I think those kind of changes are likely to be made? What do you think...?

Um, even though you're knocking down strawmen that have nothing to do with what I said, and I already explained my point to you with documented evidence, you're STILL proving my point for me. Which is that you can't judge those lower seeds that went deep based strictly on their seeding. There was more going on. And in the Caps case, with no other big changes likely to happen, then banking on a deep run with a borderline team and NOT looking to move Green for value seems like a bad gamble.

It's not that difficult. You're trying too hard.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Since you guys brought up the Carter trade, Carter was traded for Jack Johnson and a 1st. Maybe the Caps need a similar trade with shipping out Green for a scoring winger. There has to be someone out there that is available for the right price. Isn't Chicago rumored to be willing to move a forward for some cap relief, or is that more of an offseason plan? Obviously they wouldn't want Green but possibly want some youth

 

[Coldplay619]

Since you guys brought up the Carter trade, Carter was traded for Jack Johnson and a 1st. Maybe the Caps need a similar trade with shipping out Green for a scoring winger. There has to be someone out there that is available for the right price. Isn't Chicago rumored to be willing to move a forward for some cap relief, or is that more of an offseason plan? Obviously they wouldn't want Green but possibly want some youth

Alzner for Eberle?

 

[Ajax1995]

Um, even though you're knocking down strawmen that have nothing to do with what I said, and I already explained my point to you with documented evidence, you're STILL proving my point for me. Which is that you can't judge those lower seeds that went deep based strictly on their seeding. There was more going on. And in the Caps case, with no other big changes likely to happen, then banking on a deep run with a borderline team and NOT looking to move Green for value seems like a bad gamble.

It's not that difficult. You're trying too hard.

You are pretending the teams that went deep were the same ones that started the season. That just isn't the case. You are taking their final accomplishments those seasons and trying to use that to pretend those results were always in the cards. Without those major changes/additions neither of those teams even get into the playoffs, let alone goes to the finals or wins the cup.

Nobody was putting money on either of those teams at this stage in the season. Nobody. Using the miracle of 20/20 hindsight to make believe that wasn't the case is pure BS and you know it.

 

[g00n]

You are pretending the teams that went deep were the same ones that started the season. That just isn't the case. You are taking their final accomplishments those seasons and trying to use that to pretend those results were always in the cards. Without those major changes/additions neither of those teams even get into the playoffs, let alone goes to the finals or wins the cup.

Nobody was putting money on either of those teams at this stage in the season. Nobody. Using the miracle of 20/20 hindsight to make believe that wasn't the case is pure BS and you know it.

I'm sorry, but I just can't explain this to you anymore.