Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part XXXVII

[Bananas]

Just move Green for a pick and a forward or a goalie. Start there and don't stop til we're playing contender or fail for nail type hockey...

Fielding an incomplete, middling team is beyond pointless...

 

[Capitlols]

Man this franchise is at a depressing point. Generational talent falls into your lap and your relegated to barely making the playoffs, if at all, and hoping for some miracle cup run.

 

[Bananas]

Man this franchise is at a depressing point. Generational talent falls into your lap and your relegated to barely making the playoffs, if at all, and hoping for some miracle cup run.

And strangely a bunch of posters who have lived through the recent years of floundering are still afraid to deal some of these players and still defend the marginal ones to the death. We need to revamp this roster. It shouldn't be very hard. We have plenty of guys who have value. Shuffle the ****ing deck already. If it blows up in your face at least we weren't just standing around with our ****s in our hands...

 

[Nuckles]

Canucks fan coming in peace...

I have some questions regarding Orlov.
1. Do you guys know when he might be fully recovered and playing again?
2. Would he be a moveable asset considering your depth on defense?
3. If he is moveable, what would you be looking for in return? A top 9 center, top 6 winger, goalie, prospect, pick, etc?

 

[Raikkonen]

Canucks fan coming in peace...

I have some questions regarding Orlov.
1. Do you guys know when he might be fully recovered and playing again?
2. Would he be a moveable asset considering your depth on defense?
3. If he is moveable, what would you be looking for in return? A top 9 center, top 6 winger, goalie, prospect, pick, etc?

Orpik is old, Alzner is conservative. Orlov potentially is best offensive LD Caps have and may become even more than that. Is cheap. Doubtly available for now after his freak injury, which is forgivable. Trotz didn't even had a chance to try him.

If Green is kept, then maybe.

 

[MrGone]

Canucks fan coming in peace...

I have some questions regarding Orlov.
1. Do you guys know when he might be fully recovered and playing again?
2. Would he be a moveable asset considering your depth on defense?
3. If he is moveable, what would you be looking for in return? A top 9 center, top 6 winger, goalie, prospect, pick, etc?

It really comes down to what they do with Mike Green. If they sign him long term we will have too many young D prospects and not enough room opening up. If they move mike Green or don't bring him back Orlov should have a spot on the bottom pair with Nate Schmidt.

Maybe Mike Green would be a good fit for you guys? How many more runs at a cup do the twins really have?

 

[Nuckles]

It really comes down to what they do with Mike Green. If they sign him long term we will have too many young D prospects and not enough room opening up. If they move mike Green or don't bring him back Orlov should have a spot on the bottom pair with Nate Schmidt.

Maybe Mike Green would be a good fit for you guys? How many more runs at a cup do the twins really have?

Green would be the type of d-man we need right now, but his contract status would prevent a deal from getting done IMO. The Canucks aren't in a position to move valuable young assets for upcoming UFAs (since they could walk away at the end of the season). There may also be a problem with affording Green next season (assuming he gets $4.5+M, which is a safe assumption) without moving out a big-ish contract.

 

[Langway]

And strangely a bunch of posters who have lived through the recent years of floundering are still afraid to deal some of these players and still defend the marginal ones to the death. We need to revamp this roster. It shouldn't be very hard. We have plenty of guys who have value. Shuffle the ****ing deck already. If it blows up in your face at least we weren't just standing around with our ****s in our hands...

There's been so much conditioning to not think about being Cup worthy but just playoff worthy in everything the organization has done lately that it's bound to impact portions of the fanbase. The threshold has been set way too low for years. This isn't a Cup worthy roster so prudence and long-term planning ought to be their operating foundation. Unlike McPhee's last years, there should be job security for those in power to not be ruled by desperation and short-term thinking. If ownership isn't comfortable selling taking a step back if needed it'll be very disappointing.

Trade Green, Chimera and maybe Ward when the time comes...assuming they're not looking at all for real. Explore deals involving Laich and Brouwer to further change over the forward group. They'd likely need an NHL-ready forward prospect or two in the event of that amount of change. Those are most of all of their PK forwards so they'd need some help there most likely (even if it's a short-term bridge). That they haven't really had any developing depth PKing sorts yet again goes to show how little versatility their amateur scouting group tends to bring in. Maybe Stephenson can be that sort or DiPauli down the line but for years not to have anyone developing those attributes goes to show how little emphasis they seem to place on all-around hockey sense and two-way play.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Vinny a healthy scratch tonight for Philly.

 

[txpd]

There's been so much conditioning to not think about being Cup worthy but just playoff worthy in everything the organization has done lately that it's bound to impact portions of the fanbase. The threshold has been set way too low for years. This isn't a Cup worthy roster so prudence and long-term planning ought to be their operating foundation. Unlike McPhee's last years, there should be job security for those in power to not be ruled by desperation and short-term thinking. If ownership isn't comfortable selling taking a step back if needed it'll be very disappointing.

Trade Green, Chimera and maybe Ward when the time comes...assuming they're not looking at all for real. Explore deals involving Laich and Brouwer to further change over the forward group. They'd likely need an NHL-ready forward prospect or two in the event of that amount of change. Those are most of all of their PK forwards so they'd need some help there most likely (even if it's a short-term bridge). That they haven't really had any developing depth PKing sorts yet again goes to show how little versatility their amateur scouting group tends to bring in. Maybe Stephenson can be that sort or DiPauli down the line but for years not to have anyone developing those attributes goes to show how little emphasis they seem to place on all-around hockey sense and two-way play.

I don't buy that you have to be the favorite going into the playoffs to go for it. how many teams have made it to the conference finals in recent years from the bottom half of the draw? so what is for real?

conversely if you are going for nhl ready prospects, then you are looking to get younger. adding rookies to the current 19 and 20 year olds already in place. how many Ov seasons til that young bunch is for real?

 

[KevinM]

I don't buy that you have to be the favorite going into the playoffs to go for it. how many teams have made it to the conference finals in recent years from the bottom half of the draw? so what is for real?

conversely if you are going for nhl ready prospects, then you are looking to get younger. adding rookies to the current 19 and 20 year olds already in place. how many Ov seasons til that young bunch is for real?

I agree you don't have to be the favorite, but do you believe this team as constructed stands a chance to challenge for a cup?

 

[um]

Man this franchise is at a depressing point. Generational talent falls into your lap and your relegated to barely making the playoffs, if at all, and hoping for some miracle cup run.

Ovie isn't a generational talent anymore, we wasted him between 2008-2010. Since than he's been just a very good forward

 

[Langway]

I don't buy that you have to be the favorite going into the playoffs to go for it. how many teams have made it to the conference finals in recent years from the bottom half of the draw? so what is for real?

conversely if you are going for nhl ready prospects, then you are looking to get younger. adding rookies to the current 19 and 20 year olds already in place. how many Ov seasons til that young bunch is for real?

The key is getting better however possible. If you're also getting younger in the process then so be it. What is the prime window for this team as-is? Aren't they already at a place where they're banking on Burakovsky & Kuznetsov to become go-to players to have any real chance? Sprinkling in another young disciplined player or two would not significantly push the window back if those young players replace any of 16/20/21/25/83/87. To me it's not really about age so much as consistency, hockey sense and team play. The surrounding cast Fs as-is all lack at least one dimension among the three.

This isn't LA. They don't have playoff level Quick. They don't have much of a legit top six with pace and cohesion (or overall pace). I don't see a real route for this team to become legit as-is. If they avoid pace all regular season long and manage to sneak in they'll just get bounced once they face an actual cohesive team like the Canadiens, Lightning or Penguins.

Of course, they probably will desperately look to sneak into the playoffs just to remain relevant here and now. Their overall scouting suggests they probably don't know how to go about restructuring the team properly anyway so even under "new" management it'll likely remain just as aimless.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Ovie isn't a generational talent anymore, we wasted him between 2008-2010. Since than he's been just a very good forward

I'm as big of a delusional Ovi fan as you'll find, but that's the truth of it.

I also think that some serious thought needs to be put into what life after Ovi is going to look like. This isn't sustainable.

 

[Calicaps]

I'm as big of a delusional Ovi fan as you'll find, but that's the truth of it.

I also think that some serious thought needs to be put into what life after Ovi is going to look like. This isn't sustainable.

It's all true.

 

[tycoonheart]

Ovi is still one of the few players in the league who can take over games and can will the team to wins. He did it two years ago when he took the team playoffs.

I think us Caps fans take him for granted.

 

[g00n]

I don't buy that you have to be the favorite going into the playoffs to go for it. how many teams have made it to the conference finals in recent years from the bottom half of the draw? so what is for real?

conversely if you are going for nhl ready prospects, then you are looking to get younger. adding rookies to the current 19 and 20 year olds already in place. how many Ov seasons til that young bunch is for real?

The problem with that is that other than maybe Montreal and Edmonton we haven't seen many teams go deep that were low seeds AND not really highly regarded at any time. Teams like the Kings, Flyers and Rangers in various years were underachievers during the regular season based on rosters and expectations. Then they hit the playoffs likely seeded lower than what they could have been.

Can we really say that about THIS Caps squad? That if they got in as a 6-8 seed they would truly be undervalued?

Plus, the team that wins the Cup is usually seeded 1 through 4. If the Caps make the finals as a low seed and lose, is it worth holding on to UFAs that could've been dealt?

 

[KevinM]

I also think that some serious thought needs to be put into what life after Ovi is going to look like. This isn't sustainable.

If he doesn't get traded for a King's ransom then probably a lot like the Devils after they lost Kovy and Parise. Hopefully with less Jagr.

 

[artilector]

I don't buy that you have to be the favorite going into the playoffs to go for it. how many teams have made it to the conference finals in recent years from the bottom half of the draw? so what is for real?

conversely if you are going for nhl ready prospects, then you are looking to get younger. adding rookies to the current 19 and 20 year olds already in place. how many Ov seasons til that young bunch is for real?

Who is the last Cup winner with Caps' level ES play, goaltending, and center depth?

Let's cut through the hand-wavy stuff. I see Las Vegas odds of Caps winning at 50/1, 20-23rd in the league. So that's 2%.

Chicago leads at 15/2, ~15%.
8 teams at ~10%.
4 teams at 4-7%.
6 teams at ~3%.
4 teams (including Caps) at ~2%.
5 teams at ~1%.
Sabres and Canes at <0.5%.

(Since it doesn't quite add up to 100%, actual probabilities in this sense should in fact be lower)

So the question is, what is each fan's threshold of "going for it" vs. positioning team for subsequent seasons, based on the team's chance of winning.

Looking at the distribution of these odds, if my team has less than 5%, which roughly corresponds to being one of the worst playoff teams, I'd focus on building the team. 2%? No question.

Consider this. If you have a 2% team, it would take an average of 50 seasons to win a cup. Or, if you focus on building and get yourself to the "contender" 10% level, it would take 10 seasons on average. The difference is 40 seasons, lol, I think one can build a top 10 team in that span.

This is a rough sketch, but illustrates the principle.

The stuff about Ovi is purely emotional. Yeah, they wasted him. But right now, even with him, they have very low odds of winning, what's the point of "throwing good money after bad".

No, IMO the vector has to be to get to a sustainable top-10 level. If it's with Ovi -- fantastic (and that's quite conceivable), if not.. say thanks to McPhee & Leonsis.

Anyway... sabotaging construction of contender by keeping Green in order to "go for it" when you might have 50/1 odds or whatever, well to me that's absurd.

 

[um]

Ovi is still one of the few players in the league who can take over games and can will the team to wins. He did it two years ago when he took the team playoffs.

I think us Caps fans take him for granted.

No doubt he's one of the best, but when people say we are wasting him i think its a little silly. He's not much more impressive than tavares, toews, kane, giroux, kessel, etc. he's just another one of the great forwards in the league. So your not super lucky to land one of those.

 

[trick9]

Not sure why people are expecting that Green would be traded for trash. Sure his contract situation drives his value down but he's still far and away the best D on the market currently. Yeah some could consider Yandle or guy like that being 'available' in a scenario where they get top-line forward back.

If the Caps want, they can get younger replacement along with additional assets back for Green without much trouble. Tons of teams are looking for PMD's (arguably every team in the league), and very few teams are willing to move those. Caps have all the advantage and they should use it.

 

[um]

i think a package of Green + Brouwer could land us a good 2nd line RW/C. agreed that green is being valued to low around here.

 

[tycoonheart]

He's not much more impressive than tavares, toews, kane, giroux, kessel, etc. he's just another one of the great forwards in the league. So your not super lucky to land one of those since they are quite common.

I don't know if I agree with this. I don't think any of those guys you listed here can do what Ovi did for the team just two years ago.

 

[Capitlols]

Ovie isn't a generational talent anymore, we wasted him between 2008-2010. Since than he's been just a very good forward

Agreed he isn't, most of it has to do with management's directionless vision and some falls on OV.

The reality now is that they still have an elite level scorer, but can't manage to do anything with him.

 

[txpd]

I agree you don't have to be the favorite, but do you believe this team as constructed stands a chance to challenge for a cup?

a chance. sure.

1. Holtby is proven to be capable of stealing a playoff series. He has battled toe to toe with Lundqvist twice and Tim Thomas. He remains capable of those things.

2. The Caps have offensive players that can steal a short series themselves. Ovechkin and Backstrom could perform at a Conn Smythe level. They have players like Ward and Chimera who have carried a team to playoff wins. Oprik is far more likely to be an impact playoff contributor now than two seasons from now.

Green and Carlson have already been big game playoff players.

I think a deadline get like a Vermette would strengthen the team so they are less reliant on Kuznetsov and Burakovsky. Wilson could easily be a playoff monster.

I would much rather keep the pending ufa's and be a 7 seed than trade them for futures and get younger and miss the playoffs.

All I can say is that the Caps best playoffs were as a forgettable 4 seed and their worst and a juggernaut 1 seed.

I think you can give up at mid season and reload for the future almost every season.
Kuznetsov and Burakovsky are not going to be playoff seasoned impact players for 3 or 4 seasons. etting them playoff experience now is more valuable than some of the futures these pendin ufa's will bring back. You can make a case that Mike Green and John Carlson are just getting there. Ward wasn't a playoff impact player til he was 30 or more.

Why not use Ward for the full impact of what he brings for the playoffs and then use the cap space to bring in a quality replacement than let him fight for a cup in LA while banking a 2nd around pick and a 2nd tier prospect?