Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXIII: The Return of Michael Jordan

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's a tough spot for Erskine. Ideally you need your guys to be able to play a pair higher than normal in at least spot duty to account for injuries. He's proven he really can't so far (with a decent amount of success) and that hurts a bit, but until someone makes the team who can push him aside, not worth worrying about IMO.

 

[Langway]

I think not wanting Erskine even on the 3rd pairing is pretty ridiculous...

I'm not suggesting Erskine isn't an adequate third pairing defenseman, I'm saying I don't really like the fit as-is. It's more about Oleksy/Kundratek and their ability to effectively, reliably move the puck. Hillen or Orlov at 3RD is likely a better fit for Erskine but it tests their handedness orthodoxy. Without that puck moving element from his partner they're bound to struggle territorially. I'm not of the belief that simply moving Erskine down the lineup and slotting him more correctly is the answer. There's a little more to it and that complimentary partner is only there if they're willing to go away from handedness IMO.

 

[brs03]

People having a mancrush on him during the regular season doesn't change that his play was troubling even then. His mistakes just didn't end up costly.

I can obviously live with him as a 6 on any roster. Given their respective performances last season, I'd still make that Hillen's job to lose, though (this presumes Orlov steps up to fill out the hole at 4, or they somehow fill it externally). Erskine as a regular 7 who gets brought in when you feel you absolutely can't live without his physicality or fighting skill or whatever is more comforting.

 

[txpd]

this is basically a repeat post but I think it bares repeating. Erskine by all appearances improved last season from a solid 7 to a solid 5-6. so long as his 3rd pair partner can skate well enough to cover for his lack of mobility, he's a good player at that level.

as a regular season 2nd pair defenseman he can be solid. certainly for shorter stints on a fill in basis. both Carlson and Green skate well enough to cover his skating. a main reason for this is that teams just don't game plan for teams in the regular season to isolate on a secondary player like they do in the playoffs.

come the post season Erskine is a target and is exposed. it seemed to me that Erskine choked this past playoffs. he had a distinct case of the yips with the puck and imo he needed to be scratched at that point.

this season it will be interesting to see if he has recovered the ability to possess and pass the puck without having to look at it like an nhl player. if he has, I am fine with him at 2LD for the first half or so of the season.

 

[sk84fun_dc]

Erskine has always had small blocks of games where his lack of speed/mobility is less of an issue and from my perspective giving him too much TOI catches up with him. It did in a shortened season, it will in a full season of games. It's one thing to slot him in on the bottom pairing or as a 7th dman, but I don't like a roster projection where he's slotted in as #4.

As to what happens next, I've always thought a forward was headed out; I've written before that I think Chimera is a candidate. The 8D issue is the other factor if Orlov makes the team, but even before I saw what Vogel wrote, I thought someone would be traded with Grabovski signed once Johansson was under contract; actually, I thought it was possible even without the Grabovski signing.

from Vogel’s piece:

With Johansson finally in the fold, and with rookie right wing Tom Wilson appearing to be a strong bet for an opening night roster spot, the Capitals have 14 forwards in camp who played NHL hockey last season in the regular season or playoffs. The Caps are also pushing up tight against the salary cap ceiling with the Johansson signing, so a deal involving a forward would not be a surprise.

 

[dillyboy93]

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Marcus Johansson ($2.000m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m)
Martin Erat ($4.500m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($3.000m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Brooks Laich ($4.500m) / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Eric Fehr ($1.500m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.575m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.800m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
John Erskine ($1.963m) / Steven Oleksy ($0.542m)
Jack Hillen ($0.700m) /
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($2.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,984,295; BONUSES: $160,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $475,705

 

[txpd]

Erskine has always had small blocks of games where his lack of speed/mobility is less of an issue and from my perspective giving him too much TOI catches up with him. It did in a shortened season, it will in a full season of games. It's one thing to slot him in on the bottom pairing or as a 7th dman, but I don't like a roster projection where he's slotted in as #4.

As to what happens next, I've always thought a forward was headed out; I've written before that I think Chimera is a candidate. The 8D issue is the other factor if Orlov makes the team, but even before I saw what Vogel wrote, I thought someone would be traded with Grabovski signed once Johansson was under contract; actually, I thought it was possible even without the Grabovski signing.

from Vogel’s piece:

vogel suggests a caps trade from their overstocked catagories regularly but the trade itself never seems to happen. its like vogel is saying it to keep attention up.

 

[sk84fun_dc]

vogel suggests a caps trade from their overstocked catagories regularly but the trade itself never seems to happen. its like vogel is saying it to keep attention up.

I don't read everything he writes, but this seemed like an unnecessary addition if there wasn't some context and I already believed they were going to attempt to move someone out. Does it materialize, wait and see, but it makes sense to me, especially with the cap situation and the current forwards under contract, plus the possible 8D situation.

 

[Ridley Simon]

this is basically a repeat post but I think it bares repeating. Erskine by all appearances improved last season from a solid 7 to a solid 5-6. so long as his 3rd pair partner can skate well enough to cover for his lack of mobility, he's a good player at that level.

as a regular season 2nd pair defenseman he can be solid. certainly for shorter stints on a fill in basis. both Carlson and Green skate well enough to cover his skating. a main reason for this is that teams just don't game plan for teams in the regular season to isolate on a secondary player like they do in the playoffs.

come the post season Erskine is a target and is exposed. it seemed to me that Erskine choked this past playoffs. he had a distinct case of the yips with the puck and imo he needed to be scratched at that point.

this season it will be interesting to see if he has recovered the ability to possess and pass the puck without having to look at it like an nhl player. if he has, I am fine with him at 2LD for the first half or so of the season.

There are 2 players to pair with Big John, on the bottom 2-some. Either Kundratek or Hillen can do it, depending on the whole "handed-ness" crap. Olesky is more a Big John type player (hitter vs passer), so he isn't the right guy. Caps have some redundancy within their last 4 dmen. Olesky/Erskine and Kundratek/Hillen.

Orlov is the wild card. If he can't take the top 4 roles with Green or Carlson, then the team still has that massive hole. If he can, then they have a lot of depth in the D core. I might even put Orlov with Green.

Orlov-Green
Alzner-Carlson
Erskine-Hillen
Olesky-Kundratek

 

[txpd]

I don't read everything he writes, but this seemed like an unnecessary addition if there wasn't some context and I already believed they were going to attempt to move someone out. Does it materialize, wait and see, but it makes sense to me, especially with the cap situation and the current forwards under contract, plus the possible 8D situation.

I think a lot depends on Wilson and what they want to do there. Vogel mentions him as a catalyst to trading a forward. Do they really want to keep Wilson for the 4th line? Is Oates willing to play Fehr at LW to find him some ice? I heard Oates comments about Johansson's speed being more valuable on the wing than at center "with how we like to play" and wonder why he wouldn't want to keep Chimera?

I think its possible that they trade a forward if they want to keep Wilson, but I see other scenarios that are more likely. Wilson back to junior rather than the 4th line as a for instance. That makes keeping Fehr work better. I have to think that Fehr is the odd man out if they trade someone

 

[txpd]

There are 2 players to pair with Big John, on the bottom 2-some. Either Kundratek or Hillen can do it, depending on the whole "handed-ness" crap. Olesky is more a Big John type player (hitter vs passer), so he isn't the right guy. Caps have some redundancy within their last 4 dmen. Olesky/Erskine and Kundratek/Hillen.

Orlov is the wild card. If he can't take the top 4 roles with Green or Carlson, then the team still has that massive hole. If he can, then they have a lot of depth in the D core. I might even put Orlov with Green.

Orlov-Green
Alzner-Carlson
Erskine-Hillen
Olesky-Kundratek

my view is that the caps start with Erskine on 2 and Orlov on 3 with the idea of moving Orlov up as the season progresses.

the thing I don't like about Orlov-Green is that Green has to pull off his game in order to watch the kid's back. That would also be true of Carlson, but John's offensive game is not as big a priority as Green's. And Carlson is used to watching Erskine's back for lack of speed and could be less effected for watching Orlov's back for lack of judgement based on lack of experience.

 

[sk84fun_dc]

I think a lot depends on Wilson and what they want to do there. Vogel mentions him as a catalyst to trading a forward. Do they really want to keep Wilson for the 4th line? Is Oates willing to play Fehr at LW to find him some ice? I heard Oates comments about Johansson's speed being more valuable on the wing than at center "with how we like to play" and wonder why he wouldn't want to keep Chimera?

I think its possible that they trade a forward if they want to keep Wilson, but I see other scenarios that are more likely. Wilson back to junior rather than the 4th line as a for instance. That makes keeping Fehr work better. I have to think that Fehr is the odd man out if they trade someone

Obviously, a lot depends on Wilson at forward and Orlov on D. I know what I prefer, Wilson back to Plymouth and Orlov winning that D spot, but I'm not a coach or team management, I'm a fan.

Even without Wilson, the Caps have 13F under contract counting someone like Volpatti as the extra skater, so I don't view it just about Wilson. Definitely a factor depending on what they are actually considering of course.

As to Chimera vs Johansson, not exactly the same player in the same situation. I haven't listened to the Oates interview. I've noted since end of last season that I thought Chimera could be odd man out for this season, not saying that's the team's view, it's my view looking at roster management - cap, lines, etc. I know some others I've spoken to view Ward as odd guy out. In terms of his contract and last year's performance (and health,) if that Fehr shows up, I don't see him as odd man out, but anything is possible.

 

[Liberati0n*]

Wilson should definitely be in the OHL this year. He'll probably be in the NHL though. You have to wonder if they'll move someone from an awfully crowded right side if Wilson does stay up (unless Oates is willing to play Fehr on the left).

Ideally/unrealistically, if he's in the NHL, they sell high on Brouwer and let Fehr and Ward compete for 2RW (or just give it to Ward for now).

90-19-8
10-84-42/16
21-85-16/42
25-83-43
24

 

[txpd]

this idea of selling high is only of value if the player is not going to come close to repeating his production. if brouwer is going to score 20-30 goals again this year, trading him is a mistake. its a particularl mistake if you are expecting fehr to replace that production.

 

[Ridley Simon]

my view is that the caps start with Erskine on 2 and Orlov on 3 with the idea of moving Orlov up as the season progresses.

the thing I don't like about Orlov-Green is that Green has to pull off his game in order to watch the kid's back. That would also be true of Carlson, but John's offensive game is not as big a priority as Green's. And Carlson is used to watching Erskine's back for lack of speed and could be less effected for watching Orlov's back for lack of judgement based on lack of experience.

I hear you. I guess I should quantify Orlov-Green.

I see Alzner-Carlson as becoming the top pair, playing the most ES minutes. I see Orlov-Green as the true 2nd pairing, from the ES standpoint, to shelter Orlov, and the also shelter Green's overall minutes. Green is the top PP QB, so he will have the most D PP minutes. Pairing him ES with Alzner will wear him out (read = injuries), so I'd like to see it balanced.

Hillen can also be PP, and Erskine can be PK.

With who the Caps have, the Top 6 should really be Alzner, Carlson, Green, Orlov, Erskine, and Hillen. IMO. I'd still like another top 4 dman.

But, whatever.

 

[txpd]

last season alzner and green when together didn't carry shutdown duty. Carlson was handling that. I think its important to separate shutdown duty from most minutes duty. green is going to play the most minutes and is going to play the most even strength minutes.

the caps are not going to shelter his minutes. if the caps put orlov with green they will severely cut down on what offense green can create at even strength. as he is the catalyst to launching the offense and as oates says that over and over again, I don't see oates signing up for your suggested lineup

 

[Ridley Simon]

last season alzner and green when together didn't carry shutdown duty. Carlson was handling that. I think its important to separate shutdown duty from most minutes duty. green is going to play the most minutes and is going to play the most even strength minutes.

the caps are not going to shelter his minutes. if the caps put orlov with green they will severely cut down on what offense green can create at even strength. as he is the catalyst to launching the offense and as oates says that over and over again, I don't see oates signing up for your suggested lineup

As you would say. "It's a Long Season"

 

[txpd]

it is. we will certainly see some diffenent things. we might even see orlov and green together. first, lets see if orlov makes the team.

 

[Hivemind]

I wouldn't mind giving Erskine-Oleksy a trial run at some point. The Erskine-Jurcina pairing, while an offensive black hole, wasn't half bad at preventing goals. Obviously the pairing would need to be sheltered, especially against faster teams/players, but it could be a useful pairing to have when the match-up suits. The fact that both of them treat the puck like a hand grenade is concerning, but Oleksy does a pretty good job at finding the open man with his quick passes (and did break out that amazing pass to Johansson for a breakaway goal in the playoffs).

 

[ChibiPooky]

I wouldn't mind giving Erskine-Oleksy a trial run at some point. The Erskine-Jurcina pairing, while an offensive black hole, wasn't half bad at preventing goals. Obviously the pairing would need to be sheltered, especially against faster teams/players, but it could be a useful pairing to have when the match-up suits. The fact that both of them treat the puck like a hand grenade is concerning, but Oleksy does a pretty good job at finding the open man with his quick passes (and did break out that amazing pass to Johansson for a breakaway goal in the playoffs).

We've seen Erskine and Oleksy together, and Hillen - Oleksy was better IMO.

 

[Halpysback*]

last season alzner and green when together didn't carry shutdown duty. Carlson was handling that. I think its important to separate shutdown duty from most minutes duty. green is going to play the most minutes and is going to play the most even strength minutes.

the caps are not going to shelter his minutes. if the caps put orlov with green they will severely cut down on what offense green can create at even strength. as he is the catalyst to launching the offense and as oates says that over and over again, I don't see oates signing up for your suggested lineup

The caps had no problem anchoring Green with Jeff Schultz for years. A paralyzed Orlov has more mobility than Jeff Schultz. His defense may not be refined but it's not bad, he just gets crucified for bad plays more than anyone else on the team, and there's a very good chance he takes a step forward. His mobility can make up for a lot of issues and he should easily be able to adapt to a more stay at home role with a cannon of a shot from the blue line. Orlov also has another quality you are neglecting that Alzner does not. He has a punishing physical game that can take the load off of Green. With Alzner Green is doing all the heavy hitting and getting pushed out of the play and injured because of it. Orlov could lighten that load better than anyone else we have since you sure as **** can't put Erskine there. Also having one pairing where both guys can lead a breakout could be a gamechanger, and having another guy capable of offense could both take the opposing pressure off of Green and give Green more offensive options. Most high end pairings have both guys capable of very good offensive games, even though yeah they're good defensively. But both guys being able to keep the puck in the other zone or quickly move it there plays a huge role in that.

Plus, you could have a true shutdown pairing with Alzner-Carlson. Honestly this is a very good idea and only fails if Orlov implodes, which is possible but far from certain.

 

[Stewie G]

The caps had no problem anchoring Green with Jeff Schultz for years. A paralyzed Orlov has more mobility than Jeff Schultz. His defense may not be refined but it's not bad, he just gets crucified for bad plays more than anyone else on the team, and there's a very good chance he takes a step forward. His mobility can make up for a lot of issues and he should easily be able to adapt to a more stay at home role with a cannon of a shot from the blue line. Orlov also has another quality you are neglecting that Alzner does not. He has a punishing physical game that can take the load off of Green. With Alzner Green is doing all the heavy hitting and getting pushed out of the play and injured because of it. Orlov could lighten that load better than anyone else we have since you sure as **** can't put Erskine there. Also having one pairing where both guys can lead a breakout could be a gamechanger, and having another guy capable of offense could both take the opposing pressure off of Green and give Green more offensive options. Most high end pairings have both guys capable of very good offensive games, even though yeah they're good defensively. But both guys being able to keep the puck in the other zone or quickly move it there plays a huge role in that.

Plus, you could have a true shutdown pairing with Alzner-Carlson. Honestly this is a very good idea and only fails if Orlov implodes, which is possible but far from certain.

I know the Alzner-Carlson pairing has worked in the past, but it sure seems like Carlson has gone backwards since then. I know playing with Erskine didn't help matters, but his decision making never was all that great in my eyes and it seems to be getting worse. His performance in the playoffs reminded me of Wideman more than a shutdown guy.

That said, I wouldn't mind giving the pairings you listed a chance and see how things go. You never know what you've got until you try it out.

 

[Xaroc]

Wilson should definitely be in the OHL this year. He'll probably be in the NHL though. You have to wonder if they'll move someone from an awfully crowded right side if Wilson does stay up (unless Oates is willing to play Fehr on the left).

Ideally/unrealistically, if he's in the NHL, they sell high on Brouwer and let Fehr and Ward compete for 2RW (or just give it to Ward for now).

90-19-8
10-84-42/16
21-85-16/42
25-83-43
24

This. Totally this. Ward can handle that spot with Grabo and Erat. That line would never give up the puck. Ward can dig pucks out for the more skill guys and he is super smart. I am not even sure there would be much of a production dropoff between Ward and regression to the mean Brouwer this year. Grabo is going to be the triggerman on that line anyway.

 

[txpd]

I am certainly not against alzner Carlson as a shutdown pair. they are elite at that job. the point you make on orlov is true but that cuts both ways.

orlov is a playmaker defenseman. he both steps up to hit and steps up offensively. he's a risk taker. two risk takers is risky in a manner of speaking. very likely the more experienced defenseman becomes the reliable player. that would mean green cutting back on his game to watch orlov's back.

I don't like that trade off. I much prefer to have Carlson limited than Green.

 

[Hivemind]

We've seen Erskine and Oleksy together, and Hillen - Oleksy was better IMO.

Poti-Schultz saw almost as much time as a pair as Erskine-Oleksy did.