Basically since Orlov came into the league in 2011-12 he has outperformed Orpik in every major metric, offensively and defensively. You can choose to ignore or downplay the stats if you want. I've already linked to articles showing that over the long run QOC and Zone Starts basically don't matter unless a player only starts in the offensive or defensive zone or if a player only faces top competition.
Some may be generally interested in reading these articles that prove that like me, so please post again.
**Generally IMO cross comparing people with different teams and therefore different tactics, teammates, and roles is not generally a good idea.**
Since 2011-12 Orlov has started 28.1% of the time in the defensive zone, 37.5% of the time in the neutral zone, and 34.2% of the time in the offensive zone. Orpik's breakdown is 31.0% in the defensive zone, 40.5% in the neutral zone, and 28.4% in the offensive zone. So while Orpik has slightly more defensive zone starts, it's not as significant as people think.
I am just going to assume that your numbers are correct from here on out and comment on them.
The importance is not necessarily that Orlov and Orpik have similar defensive zone %s, its that Orlov gets more starts in the offensive zone (where it is reasonable to get shot attempts right away and almost impossible to get shots against right away) than himself in the defensive zone. And the opposite is true of Orpik.
In the raw data here, it looks like Orlov starts in ozone 6.1% more times than in the defensive zone. Meanwhile Orpik starts in the offensive zone -2.6% more times. That is a spread of 8.7%.
In actuality, Orlov starts in the offensive zone 54.9% of the time compared to defensive zone, which by itself is a spread of almost 10. Orpik, meanwhile, is at 47.8% offensive zone starts which is a difference of about 4. That is not insignificant, and especially when you re talking about 4 or 5 years of data, that is a lot of zone starts.
With regards to quality of competition, Orpik's opponents have averaged 50.3% score-adjusted corsi over their careers, Orlov's opponents have averaged 49.8%. However with quality of teammates, Orpik's teammates have averaged 51.3% score-adjusted corsi (playing with Crosby, Letang, Malkin, Ovechkin, Backstrom) while Orlov's teammates have only averaged 49.8% (playing mostly without first line stars).
Using the stat that needs context to provide the context for that exact same stat is...Some other quality of competition needs to be used TOI% or G%. Neither of them are fool proof which makes controlling for them tough. That's the rub.
Using a career corsi% is also somewhat strange considering it does not take into account anything about any current tactics or current usage. These current things effect the game, do they not.
So basically the QOC is at BEST a wash and more likely actually favors Orlov because his teammates have been equal with the competition, whereas Orpik has played with teammates better than his competition on average.
Despite your choice of QOC, Orpik still sports a half a percentage point difference which doesn't seem significant, but because as samples get larger, the sample means tend to gravitate toward the population mean, so half a percentage point could very well mean something.
QOT is interesting but you again used career Corsi which tells me nothing about those teams and players at the time the Orpik or Orlov data was gathered. Those Penguins teams were not very good shot attempt wise, but a large portion of the career data for guys like Malkin and Crosby (and for that matter Ovechkin and Backstrom) were from when they were much better in the regard (when Orpik was much better in that regard as well).
So if you're saying Orpik playing slightly more zone-starts explains away his score-adjusted corsi being 8.2% worse than Orlov's (-3.8% vs. +4.4% since 2011-12), then I will disagree and point to the research showing that mild zone-start differences don't explain an 8% difference.
Slightly meaning a lot. Defensive zone starts can tell someone much more than just where they were on the ice when a faceoff occurred and how that might change the stats.
Defensive zone starts is an indication of coaching tactics. A guy getting more defensive zone starts is being asked to play defensively. Sometimes in those zone starts, as it has been with Orlov a bunch this year, a player like Orpik could take the faceoff in the defensive zone, but change for someone like Orlov when the puck goes up the ice. This means he has zero chance for shot attempts for and only a chance for shots against, but it also says that Trotz may be telling Orpik, keep the puck out of the net, that is all I want from you. That simple. Get it out, in, and get off.
Ignoring stats for a second, Orpik doesn't pass the eye test either. Go back to Game 3 of the Islanders series. His inability to handle the puck near the crease cost the Capitals the game. He has been slower and slower recently and certainly won't be any faster when he returns from injury. How about all of the dumb penalties he takes in the name of "retribution"? How many times has he screened his own goalie? (I remember this happening all the time)
The only part of Orpik's game that is easily seen to be lacking is speed in the defensive zone and offensively. He is a great shot blocker (something Trotz asked of his defensemen, but sometimes makes them screen the goalie). He has a good pokecheck and stick. He is physical in the corners and in front of the net, and I know that means little to you, but it absolutely slows down the forecheck, and few players are willing to stand in front if they are going to crosschecked repeatedly. His pass isn't the best, but he usually ends up making smart simple plays instead of risking a long pass like putting the puck into his feet in the corner to allow for help, or going d-to-d behind the net, or playing it up the boards to a winger. When this happens Orpik is most likely going to be changing by the time the puck does get out not allowing for shot attempts for. These amazing skate outs and long exit passes by Orlov and Schmidt may happen once a game, if that. Though both are simply more willing to jump into the play, and therefore don't change when the puck goes up the ice and benefit from those rushes. The real difference between them is getting to rebounds and loose pucks which is where Orpik definitely struggles, but he makes up for it somewhat by plastering the opposing forward when he does get there, which slows him down for all of his teammates not just Orpik.
Orlov handled second pairing minutes when both Carlson and Orpik were injured and I'm pretty sure the Caps have kept on winning. He wasn't sheltered then because Ness and Chorney were sheltered.
He still received many more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts. While he played against better opposition, Alzner and Niskanen seemingly started over 50% of the Caps time in the defensive zone.
He also played basically no PK time during this time despite being on the second pairing. Trotz elected to use Chorney instead.
Orlov deserves a chance to play top 4 minutes for an extended period to show what he has before Orpik does because Orlov has more recently shown he can handle those minutes, Orpik was a disaster early this season coming off injury and now he's coming off another injury. No reason to think a guy that old coming back from injury will be able to play at a high level, it's just not realistic.
Trotz still won't trust Orlov in the defensive zone. The reasons really do escape me too. As I have said before, he doesn't really block many shots which could be part of the reason. His coverage is average, and he does have a propensity to be risky. I gues for Trotz the reward is not worth the risk, at least in the defensive zone.
