Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXVII

[artilector]

I don't think MacLellan is trying to replace Orlov, but if they add an NHL defenseman
he is going to have to earn his lineup slot. I've said this before, that he is behind Schmidt on the depth chart is on him. He should be better.

What is this "should be better" nonsense?
Schmidt broke through in a huge way, he is a gem, that's no slight on anybody else.
Orlov missed a year, it's pretty logical that it would take a while to recover to something resembling normal developmental track, anyway.

You keep being wrong on Orlov. You thought his injury would be potentially career-threatening, nope, here he is. You kept talking nonsense about how Trotz was maybe/probably/in your opinion dissatisfied with Orlov's game management, only for Trotz to say the opposite in his interviews. It's airball after airball. Just please don't start to praise him -- then I'll be worried for Orlov's future!

The really comical part is that you were Green's biggest fan, and Orlov looks well on the way to being a much more sensible choice (esp. in term of role/cap hit) for the "high risk, high reward" D role than Green was after the run-n-gun BB days were over.

 

[um]

Orpik is much better than Orlov, not to mention a third pairing of Schmidt and Orlov is small, weak, and inexperienced. Trotz also give Orpik much more ice time and responsibilities than Orlov, now I know Orlov is playing with Chorney but even before Orpiks injury Trotz wasn't giving Orlov tons of ice time.

Orlov is a good third pairing defensemen but if just one defensemen goes down we're stuck with Orlov-Chorney, which isn't god awful but it means we should add another defensemen if the price is right.

 

[artilector]

I don't care if Orlov wins 50 consecutive Norris Trophies in a Penguins jersey if Dan Hamhuis helps us win a Stanley Cup.

Well, if there was a way to guarantee that getting Hamhuis would bring the Cup to DC, we'd probably be willing to part with Orlov, and Vrana, and Bowey, and 1st, with a cherry on top.

It's a "populist" argument. The real question is not whether a Cup is worth trading away Orlov (of course it is), but whether raising your chances of winning from (let's say) 20% to 22% (or whatever the exact numbers are) is worth trading away Orlov or some other blue-chip young asset. Then the answer is much less obvious.

Specifically with Hamhuis/Orlov, the only way I'd consider it if the Caps made a firm determination that Orlov is the odd guy out in their long term plans. And even then... this is not an ideal kind of trade, because, while it supposedly adds quality, it does not help with depth -- where the desire for more defensive depth is the original inspiration for most of these trade propositions for the Caps.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I don't think anyone has said they are on board with an Orlov for Hamhuis swap. There was discussion in previous pages that acquiring Hamhuis could potentially drop Orlov out of the lineup.

 

[um]

using 7 defensemen in a playoffs isn't exactly rare, and I don't think can survive injuries like LA or Chicago who would just give Doughty or Keith 30 minutes a game.

 

[txpd]

What is this "should be better" nonsense?
Schmidt broke through in a huge way, he is a gem, that's no slight on anybody else.
Orlov missed a year, it's pretty logical that it would take a while to recover to something resembling normal developmental track, anyway.

You keep being wrong on Orlov. You thought his injury would be potentially career-threatening, nope, here he is. You kept talking nonsense about how Trotz was maybe/probably/in your opinion dissatisfied with Orlov's game management, only for Trotz to say the opposite in his interviews. It's airball after airball. Just please don't start to praise him -- then I'll be worried for Orlov's future!

The really comical part is that you were Green's biggest fan, and Orlov looks well on the way to being a much more sensible choice (esp. in term of role/cap hit) for the "high risk, high reward" D role than Green was after the run-n-gun BB days were over.

Orlov has more experience than Schmidt. His decision making should be better than Schmidt. He has better skills than Schmidt. If you don't agree with that, its fine with me.

I don't think the Caps need to or are looking to replace Orlov. Ive said several times that a solid defense first 5 that would likely be scratched would be great depth. I am even suggesting that Orlov would play ahead of Hamhuis.

What I am saying is that if the Caps trade for an NHL defenseman who is going to play, that Orlov is the odd man out. Not Orpik. Do you disagree with any of that?

 

[Devil Dancer]

Orpik is much better than Orlov, not to mention a third pairing of Schmidt and Orlov is small, weak, and inexperienced. Trotz also give Orpik much more ice time and responsibilities than Orlov, now I know Orlov is playing with Chorney but even before Orpiks injury Trotz wasn't giving Orlov tons of ice time.

Orlov is a good third pairing defensemen but if just one defensemen goes down we're stuck with Orlov-Chorney, which isn't god awful but it means we should add another defensemen if the price is right.

I don't think of Orlov as small or weak.

 

[Calicaps]

I don't think of Orlov as small or weak.

Totally agree. He's a bit short, but he's a brick.

 

[Raikkonen]

using 7 defensemen in a playoffs isn't exactly rare, and I don't think can survive injuries like LA or Chicago who would just give Doughty or Keith 30 minutes a game.

Bingo! Orlov goes to 4th line wing while everyone is healthy.

 

[artilector]

Orlov has more experience than Schmidt. His decision making should be better than Schmidt. He has better skills than Schmidt. If you don't agree with that, its fine with me.

I don't think the Caps need to or are looking to replace Orlov. Ive said several times that a solid defense first 5 that would likely be scratched would be great depth. I am even suggesting that Orlov would play ahead of Hamhuis.

What I am saying is that if the Caps trade for an NHL defenseman who is going to play, that Orlov is the odd man out. Not Orpik. Do you disagree with any of that?

It's nonsense. Players develop at different pace, and have different ceilings in terms of how well they can make decisions. Otherwise you could say that when Lidstrom played, every older defenseman with "more experience" should've had better decision-making than Lidstrom. Absurd.

There is another easy example of this on the Caps -- Carlson. I wouldn't be surprised if Carlson never quite gets to Norris-type level, because of the mental aspect. It's not a matter of "should" -- players have different capabilities. Also, for high-risk skilled players it usually takes longer to calm down and accept the need to make safe plays.. and let's face it, some never quite get the balance right.

I don't know if Orlov will be able to strike the right/acceptable balance between his offensive ability and defensive responsibility, but it has nothing to do with *should*.

 

[SpinningEdge]

If you drop your stick when you could of easily hung onto it..... couldn't that go down as kind of a same rule as embellishment/diving?

 

[twabby]

I don't understand why people here are so willing to hand-wave away Orpik's shortcomings while nitpicking every single thing Orlov does wrong, or thinks he does wrong but turns out that he made the right play (looking at you txpd).

Orlov is already better than Orpik and it isn't close. You can use word like "heart, grit, snarl, sandpaper, etc" to describe Orpik but those are empty words that don't mean anything. It doesnt translate to a better goal differential. People downplay statistics but statistics show that the Kings and Blackhawks have been the best teams recently and what do you know, they have won 5 of 6 Cups (and before that, the Penguins and Wings were both advanced stats darlings and who won the Cup?)

Enforcers used to be thought of as important due to intangibles but now teams realize they are a liability. The same will happen with players like Orpik. Already teams are drafting puck moving defensemen as opposed to big lugs who can't handle the puck.

Start critically analyzing players and stop assuming what the media tells you about them are true.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I don't understand why people here are so willing to hand-wave away Orpik's shortcomings while nitpicking every single thing Orlov does wrong, or thinks he does wrong but turns out that he made the right play (looking at you txpd).

Orlov is already better than Orpik and it isn't close. You can use word like "heart, grit, snarl, sandpaper, etc" to describe Orpik but those are empty words that don't mean anything. It doesnt translate to a better goal differential. People downplay statistics but statistics show that the Kings and Blackhawks have been the best teams recently and what do you know, they have won 5 of 6 Cups (and before that, the Penguins and Wings were both advanced stats darlings and who won the Cup?)

Enforcers used to be thought of as important due to intangibles but now teams realize they are a liability. The same will happen with players like Orpik. Already teams are drafting puck moving defensemen as opposed to big lugs who can't handle the puck.

Start critically analyzing players and stop assuming what the media tells you about them are true.

Every argument you make is based off of advanced stats and possession which is fine but calling Orlov better than Orpik AINEC is a bunch of crap. Orlov is sheltered, Orpik isn't when he plays. That helps Orlov a lot.

 

[txpd]

I don't understand why people here are so willing to hand-wave away Orpik's shortcomings while nitpicking every single thing Orlov does wrong, or thinks he does wrong but turns out that he made the right play (looking at you txpd).

Orlov is already better than Orpik and it isn't close. .

who's nitpiking? Orlov is 6 on the Caps depth chart. I am not making that up. If you think Orlov is significantly better than Orpik there's really no conversation to have.

 

[twabby]

There are plenty of instances in the league where coaches don't have their depth chart correct. Easy example is Dan Girardi in NY. He gets more ice time than Klein, Yandle, and McIlrath and no sane person would say that is right.

While I think Trotz and co. have been very good, I think they have made a mistake using Orpik on the first pairing. The possession stats, shot suppression stats, and points all favor Orlov by a mile. Orpik takes way too many penalties (way more minors/60 than Orlov) and he gives up more goals/60 by a mile.

And while I concede Orpik faces competition I have already shown studies that QOC is a negligible factor in the long run. Also people who cling to the QOC argument fail to mention that Orpik also skates with better teammates than the third pairing. As an example, Orlov and Chorney skated most of their time with the third line tonight and far less time with the first line.

Unless someone can quantify why Orpik is better, it's not really a stretch to say Orlov should be higher than him on the depth chart.

And let's be real txpd you nitpicked the hell out of Orlov for scoring a beautiful goal against the Flyers and never fail to mention how risky he is despite the fact that there is no evidence to support that claim.

 

[hb12xchamps]

And while I concede Orpik faces competition I have already shown studies that QOC is a negligible factor in the long run. Also people who cling to the QOC argument fail to mention that Orpik also skates with better teammates than the third pairing. As an example, Orlov and Chorney skated most of their time with the third line tonight and far less time with the first line.

Unless someone can quantify why Orpik is better, it's not really a stretch to say Orlov should be higher than him on the depth chart.

The third line is better defensively then the first line so I don't see where you are coming from? Unless you strictly are talking about points or plus/minus tonight with Ovi's hatty then the first line is better in that regard but there's no argument that the third line is better defensively. The first line also faces the top pairing, especially in a road game.

 

[Hivemind]

If Orpik* plays like he did last season**, it makes plenty of sense to put him back on the shutdown pairing.

Regardless of which pairing he's on, Orpik's pairing is not going to have great possession numbers. Similarly, regardless of who is the Capitals' shutdown pairing, they're not going to have great possession numbers. Alzner/Niskanen aren't exactly driving play forwards right now. Alzner/Carlson treaded water (at best) as a shutdown pairing in the past. It makes more sense to stem the bleeding, and allow Orpik to handle the tough minutes. That way the lower two pairings are both driving play forwards, while you're still getting a very similar performance from the shutdown pairing (Orpik is at his best in his own zone, anyway).

*And Carlson
**Obviously if he plays like he did at the beginning of this season, you don't put him anywhere near a shutdown match-up (or the ice in general)

 

[Hivemind]

And while I concede Orpik faces competition I have already shown studies that QOC is a negligible factor in the long run.

Link please.

Also people who cling to the QOC argument fail to mention that Orpik also skates with better teammates than the third pairing. As an example, Orlov and Chorney skated most of their time with the third line tonight and far less time with the first line.

Orlov and Chorney also see twice as many offensive zone starts as they see defensive zone starts. They have the most sheltered deployments on the team.

 

[HunterSThompson]

And while I concede Orpik faces competition I have already shown studies that QOC is a negligible factor in the long run. Also people who cling to the QOC argument fail to mention that Orpik also skates with better teammates than the third pairing. As an example, Orlov and Chorney skated most of their time with the third line tonight and far less time with the first line.

How long of a long run? Sure in long runs (greater sample size) people's quality of competition may approach the population mean. But Orlov literally plays sheltered minutes, it is not only QOC, but deployment. On Tuesday he started in the offensive zone 100% of the time. Tonight he started there 75% of the time. On the season he has taken 47% of the offensive zone starts of the Caps team when the Caps are leading (that is when they bleed shot attempts). When tied he has only taken 17% of the defensive zone starts.

Orpik played 14 games this year, hardly an adequate sample, either way.

And if you want to talk about who they skate with. Orlov's most frequent forward is Kuznetsov. Orpik's in his small sample size is also Kuznetsov.

And never fail to mention how risky he is despite the fact that there is no evidence to support that claim.

There isn't a measure of risk, but Orlov is second amongst the defensemen on the Caps in giveaways/60 in all situations. 1st is Carlson .07 ahead of Orlov, but he plays tougher minutes and actually plays on the PK unlike Orlov who gets less than Chorney at only 8 minutes.

 

[capitalsrock]

I don't understand why people here are so willing to hand-wave away Orpik's shortcomings while nitpicking every single thing Orlov does wrong, or thinks he does wrong but turns out that he made the right play (looking at you txpd).

Orlov is already better than Orpik and it isn't close. You can use word like "heart, grit, snarl, sandpaper, etc" to describe Orpik but those are empty words that don't mean anything. It doesnt translate to a better goal differential. People downplay statistics but statistics show that the Kings and Blackhawks have been the best teams recently and what do you know, they have won 5 of 6 Cups (and before that, the Penguins and Wings were both advanced stats darlings and who won the Cup?)

Enforcers used to be thought of as important due to intangibles but now teams realize they are a liability. The same will happen with players like Orpik. Already teams are drafting puck moving defensemen as opposed to big lugs who can't handle the puck.

Start critically analyzing players and stop assuming what the media tells you about them are true.

What are you even talking about? Stop assuming you know what everyone else is thinking because they don't stare at screens of advanced stats all day. Not everything is a media conspiracy. Some people have different views than you.

I watched every caps game last year and I thought Orpik was one of our best and most consistent players all season, and especially in the playoffs. Orlov is our worst defenseman defensively. I'll take Orpik's offensive shortcomings over Orlov's defensive shortcomings all day. Orlov is great entertainment value for people who enjoy flashy plays and dangles, but he gets walked almost every game.

I would love to hear the reactions of actual NHL players when they heard you say that words like "heart" and "grit" are meaningless, because they actually experience that part of the game unlike us. That's just ignorant.

Or ask players who have gone the length in the playoffs whether or not the grit and snarl of their pylon enforcers with bad possession stats were important. Not every part of the game can be calculated.

Anything that doesn't appear on the stat sheet is apparently nonexistent to you...

A great man once said "If you knew anything about the game, you'd be in it."

And I actually love Orlov, but you're just getting ridiculous with these rants.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Orlov is not a top pairing shut down guy, especially in the playoffs. That doesn't mean he's not a very good (and continuously improving) defenseman but please stop with the "just replace Orpik w/ Orlov" narrative. It shows a lack of understanding of both advanced statistics and the game of hockey.

 

[Sam Spade]

I kind of agree with this. "The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak" kind of applies to Orpik these days.

How do any of us know this?

When, if at all, this season would Vrana get a call-up for a look?

Playoff callup to be with the team/emergency purposes, but not during the regular season. Why burn any games off of his ELC.

 

[895]

How do any of us know this?



Playoff callup to be with the team/emergency purposes, but not during the regular season. Why burn any games off of his ELC.

Playing in Hershey burns his ELC same as the NHL.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Playing in Hershey burns his ELC same as the NHL.

Negative. It slides if he doesn't play > 9 NHL games.

 

[895]

Huh, you are right. For some reason I thought all pro games counted and it would only slide if someone was in juniors.

But, he's not going to get 9 games anyway.