Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXVII

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Agreed. A few games would be advantageous as a measuring stick for him, if nothing else.

 

[Roughing]

40-9-4

I mean, that doesn't even look right.

 

[strungout]

The teams they have lost to in order...

San Jose
Pittsburgh
Rangers
Detroit
Calgary (OT)
Dallas
Winnipeg (OT)
Florida
Carolina
Columbus (SO)
Buffalo
Philadelphia (OT)
Florida

That's it.

Nuts!

 

[Mothra]

I don't understand why people here are so willing to hand-wave away Orpik's shortcomings while nitpicking every single thing Orlov does wrong, or thinks he does wrong but turns out that he made the right play (looking at you txpd).

Orlov is already better than Orpik and it isn't close. You can use word like "heart, grit, snarl, sandpaper, etc" to describe Orpik but those are empty words that don't mean anything. It doesnt translate to a better goal differential. People downplay statistics but statistics show that the Kings and Blackhawks have been the best teams recently and what do you know, they have won 5 of 6 Cups (and before that, the Penguins and Wings were both advanced stats darlings and who won the Cup?)

Enforcers used to be thought of as important due to intangibles but now teams realize they are a liability. The same will happen with players like Orpik. Already teams are drafting puck moving defensemen as opposed to big lugs who can't handle the puck.

Start critically analyzing players and stop assuming what the media tells you about them are true.

Orlov isnt the better player and if the Caps lose a big playoff game on a players poor decision or just a dumb play....my money is on Orlov

He still needs time and in the right move I would absolutely move him. He is a young defenseman and it often shows.

 

[Ridley Simon]

using 7 defensemen in a playoffs isn't exactly rare, and I don't think can survive injuries like LA or Chicago who would just give Doughty or Keith 30 minutes a game.

Using 7 is expected. Heck, I think 8 is too. It's the 9+ that you hope doesn't happen.

8 is why some of us have been beating the "acquire D man asap please drum" for months. It's obvious that is the only real area of concern, and it's been obvious since Carlson got hurt (if not before).

GMBM has to find a way to improve on Carrick/Ness/Stanton. At least one. If not 2.

 

[Langway]

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/hocke...lk/friday-six-pack-will-caps-trade-defenseman

Actually, the Caps will have plenty of room under the cap once Orpik and Jay Beagle return. The reason is that a player’s salary counts against the cap only when he is on the active roster. That means three months of Orpik’s salary, or $30,054 for each day he is not on the active roster, will be added as a cap cushion once he returns to the lineup. The same goes for Beagle, who likely will be out a total of two months with a hand injury. So, the Caps should be able to fit both Orpik and Beagle under the cap while also having some space for another player if they choose to add at the deadline. That number changes every day, so the longer Orpik and Beagle are on the injured list, the more money the Caps will have to spend at the deadline, if they choose to make a move. By the way, the Caps are one player under the 50-man limit.

Everything in this paragraph is wrong. Gormley!

 

[Ridley Simon]

There are plenty of instances in the league where coaches don't have their depth chart correct. Easy example is Dan Girardi in NY. He gets more ice time than Klein, Yandle, and McIlrath and no sane person would say that is right.

While I think Trotz and co. have been very good, I think they have made a mistake using Orpik on the first pairing. The possession stats, shot suppression stats, and points all favor Orlov by a mile. Orpik takes way too many penalties (way more minors/60 than Orlov) and he gives up more goals/60 by a mile.

And while I concede Orpik faces competition I have already shown studies that QOC is a negligible factor in the long run. Also people who cling to the QOC argument fail to mention that Orpik also skates with better teammates than the third pairing. As an example, Orlov and Chorney skated most of their time with the third line tonight and far less time with the first line.

Unless someone can quantify why Orpik is better, it's not really a stretch to say Orlov should be higher than him on the depth chart.

And let's be real txpd you nitpicked the hell out of Orlov for scoring a beautiful goal against the Flyers and never fail to mention how risky he is despite the fact that there is no evidence to support that claim.

Before I comment on your argument re: Orlov vs Orpik, I need to understand something.

What "games sample" are you using for your argument, when comparing the 2?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/hocke...lk/friday-six-pack-will-caps-trade-defenseman

Everything in this paragraph is wrong. Gormley!

I was reading this and getting excited because after so many CBA's I have a tough time keeping things straight. Then I got to Gormley.

I wonder if they issue a correction or pull the article.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/hocke...lk/friday-six-pack-will-caps-trade-defenseman

Everything in this paragraph is wrong. Gormley!

Yeah, unfortunately that's not how the salary cap works. Orpik's $5.5M cap hit is not going anywhere, and the only way we could clear some cap space is by trading the other Brooks.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The teams they have lost to in order...

San Jose
Pittsburgh
Rangers
Detroit
Calgary (OT)
Dallas
Winnipeg (OT)
Florida
Carolina
Columbus (SO)
Buffalo
Philadelphia (OT)
Florida

That's it.

Nuts!

Florida! We are doomed if we play them!! Damn that Jagr!!!

 

[Ridley Simon]

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/hocke...lk/friday-six-pack-will-caps-trade-defenseman

Everything in this paragraph is wrong. Gormley!

That's Lol. I mean, how?

 

[g00n]

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/hocke...lk/friday-six-pack-will-caps-trade-defenseman

Everything in this paragraph is wrong. Gormley!

There's a comments section there, if anyone wants to give the Gorminator a few tips on the cap.

 

[Jedgi]

Why is there always so much vitriol for Gormley? Is there something he did I don't know about?

 

[stanleycaps18]

Why is there always so much vitriol for Gormley? Is there something he did I don't know about?

I think it is the fact that the dude has the gig and most of us on this board know more about the NHL, AHL and hockey, not to mention the Caps than this clown.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

There's a comments section there, if anyone wants to give the Gorminator a few tips on the cap.

Or, someone could tell him to read the CBA.

 

[g00n]

I think it is the fact that the dude has the gig and most of us on this board know more about the NHL, AHL and hockey, not to mention the Caps than this clown.

That and he's hard to listen to. He chokes on his words too much and has too many gaffes. I understand it's not an easy job, but on a local crew that's really on the ball he sticks out badly. That's not even counting the written stuff.

I will usually give professionals the benefit of the doubt for a certain amount of effort, learning curve, and unseen or unappreciated work...but Gormley really seems like someone off the street they just wedged into the position for some unknown reason. I don't see improvement and I don't see the potential that could justify the hire.

 

[Hivemind]

Why is there always so much vitriol for Gormley? Is there something he did I don't know about?

On TV, he can't spit out a single sentence without having to pause or correct himself.

In text, he gets stuff factually incorrect.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Could always take it to twitter s well.



Another reason to hate Chuck Gormley:

Big Flyers fan

 

[twabby]

Before I comment on your argument re: Orlov vs Orpik, I need to understand something.

What "games sample" are you using for your argument, when comparing the 2?

Basically since Orlov came into the league in 2011-12 he has outperformed Orpik in every major metric, offensively and defensively. You can choose to ignore or downplay the stats if you want. I've already linked to articles showing that over the long run QOC and Zone Starts basically don't matter unless a player only starts in the offensive or defensive zone or if a player only faces top competition.

Since 2011-12 Orlov has started 28.1% of the time in the defensive zone, 37.5% of the time in the neutral zone, and 34.2% of the time in the offensive zone. Orpik's breakdown is 31.0% in the defensive zone, 40.5% in the neutral zone, and 28.4% in the offensive zone. So while Orpik has slightly more defensive zone starts, it's not as significant as people think.

With regards to quality of competition, Orpik's opponents have averaged 50.3% score-adjusted corsi over their careers, Orlov's opponents have averaged 49.8%. However with quality of teammates, Orpik's teammates have averaged 51.3% score-adjusted corsi (playing with Crosby, Letang, Malkin, Ovechkin, Backstrom) while Orlov's teammates have only averaged 49.8% (playing mostly without first line stars).

So basically the QOC is at BEST a wash and more likely actually favors Orlov because his teammates have been equal with the competition, whereas Orpik has played with teammates better than his competition on average.

So if you're saying Orpik playing slightly more zone-starts explains away his score-adjusted corsi being 8.2% worse than Orlov's (-3.8% vs. +4.4% since 2011-12), then I will disagree and point to the research showing that mild zone-start differences don't explain an 8% difference.

Ignoring stats for a second, Orpik doesn't pass the eye test either. Go back to Game 3 of the Islanders series. His inability to handle the puck near the crease cost the Capitals the game. He has been slower and slower recently and certainly won't be any faster when he returns from injury. How about all of the dumb penalties he takes in the name of "retribution"? How many times has he screened his own goalie? (I remember this happening all the time)

Orlov handled second pairing minutes when both Carlson and Orpik were injured and I'm pretty sure the Caps have kept on winning. He wasn't sheltered then because Ness and Chorney were sheltered.

Orlov deserves a chance to play top 4 minutes for an extended period to show what he has before Orpik does because Orlov has more recently shown he can handle those minutes, Orpik was a disaster early this season coming off injury and now he's coming off another injury. No reason to think a guy that old coming back from injury will be able to play at a high level, it's just not realistic.

 

[CapInSask]

Capitals Ideal Lineup

As we inch closer and closer to the post season and players are coming back from injury, what do you think is the best lineup configuration?

*Disclaimer* This is assuming that everyone is back healthy.

1st Line: Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Oshie

We are extremely lucky to have 2 1C's. That being said I don't think you can go wrong with 19/92 at 1C/2C. To me, looking back at how they played together at the start of the year, Kuznetsov brings an infusion of creativity without sacrificing defensively. That creativity could open things up for Ovie even more and could involve Oshie more.

2nd Line: Burakovsky - Backstrom - Williams

Again, it doesn't matter who centers this line. I think 19 and 92 are both great in puck possession but stylistically I think Backstrom and Williams would be a nightmare for 2nd pairing defensemen in the cycle. Burakovsky would have an unbelievable abundance of set ups to pile up the goals.

3rd Line: Chimera - Johansson - Wilson

DO NOT TOUCH THIS LINE. This should be pretty self explanatory. If you were to tell me at the start of the year that these three would form a better 3rd line than we had last year I would've probably thought you were crazy. To me they seem to be the least likely group to have chemistry, but Mojo's resurgance, Wilson's emergence, and Chimmer soaking in the fountain of youth on off days, these guys have become one of the most effective 3rd lines in the NHL. I can only see them getting better come playoff time.

4th Line: Laich - Richards - Beagle

This is the tough one. I'm sure a few combinations would work here but this is probably the best setup in terms of experience and faceoffs; two very important things in playoffs. Laich is overpaid, but is still a solid 4th liner and PK guy. Richards/Beagle is pretty much interchangeable. If one guy isn't getting it done at the dot, move him out to wing and bring the other in.

1st Pairing: Alzner - Niskanen

Similar to the 1C/2C debate, we really have two top 4 pairings, so this can go either way. These two have been solid enough in the wake of injuries to 44/74 to earn the top spot. They have been good in shut down and have decent offensive potential.

2nd Pairing: Orpik - Carlson

I really have no idea how tough it will be Orpik to get back to top form when he gets back from injury. That along with Carlson regaining form VERY slowly is the reason that they are the 2nd and not the 1st. If both can progress well before playoffs they could possibly regain top spot.

3rd Pairing: Orlov - Schmidt

These two have really proved their worth this year. I don't think their youth will be an issue come playoffs. I'm sure the majority of minutes will be dispersed among the top two pairings. Time will tell.

Goalies: Holtby/Grubauer

Do I have to explain this?

Press Box: Latta - Galiev - Chorney

Really any of these three could fill in wherever needed. If you need a two way fwd, Latta. More scoring touch, Galiev. If one of the young guys falter on the back end, throw Chorney in, or of course, in case of injury (Yes, I am currently knocking on wood).

Let me know what you guys think. Agree or disagree? Or just let me know what you think would be most effective.

 

[CapInSask]

Just to recap:

Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Oshie
Burakovsky - Backstrom - Williams
Chimera - Johansson - Wilson
Laich - Richards - Beagle

Alzner - Niskanen
Orpik - Carlson
Orlov - Schmidt

Holtby - Grubauer

Latta - Galiev - Chorney

 

[txpd]

this is going to end up folded back to the lineup, but Backstrom plays with Oshie and OV because Trotz very often likes to use them as the matchup line vs the opposing top line. Kuzy is not up to that as a center nor Burt as a winger.

Moving 19 kills that option

 

[trick9]

I don't see a match-up line there against the opposing top lines. As long as Trotz is here, we are likely to have one.

Either it's Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie/Williams or Johansson-Backstrom-Williams/Oshie.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Defensive formation:

8-19-77
65-92-14
25-90-43
21-83-10
Extra F: 49, 46

44-74
27-2
88-9
Extra D: 4

Offensive formation:
8-92-77
65-19-14
25-90-43
21-83-46
Extra F: 10, 49

88-74
27-2
44-9
Extra D: 4

Top two defensive pairs get equal ice time, 22 min each. Third pair gets 16 min.

 

[CapInSask]

Thanks for the input guys. Like I said, I don't think we can go wrong with either at Center. Also, I realize now that this all could have gone in the lineup thread. Duh.