Post-Game Talk: #8 | Oilers 1 at FLYERS 2| Sat. Oct. 21, 1:00 pm ET

[Ghosts Beer]

Gudas looks way off, and I say that as one of his biggest fans since I first saw him as a Tampa rookie. But he's good enough that he still can adjust and get it done. I wouldn't be surprised if he's hurt.

Also, I wouldn't mess with that Hagg-Ghost pairing at all. Two smart players. Hagg knows how to play with him.

 

[baudib1]

The team still needs Morin pretty badly, IMO. If there's an area where the D corps struggles, it's playing against physical forwards in their own zone.

Ideally MacDonald would never see the ice again in O&B and the top pairing would actually function as a top pairing and be the preferred unit in basically all situations and especially needed vs. top lines. Provorov-Hagg would be ideal. Ghost-Morin complement each other perfectly and Ghost easily covers any puck-moving deficiencies Morin might have.

 

[hayen]

I don't expect him to be a dynamic force in his D-zone, he's always going to be limited by his size in tight spaces. That's part of the tradeoffs that come with his speed and agility and playmaking.

Ghost gets into trouble when he tries to do too much, that's part of learning your limitations. It's a problem for most talented young players, they're so used to dominating at lower levels they develop bad habits, and one thing they need to learn at the NHL level is the other guys are really talented, too.

It's not like he has to make major changes in his game, just cut back on dangerous turnovers, once or twice a game decide to play it safe when he doesn't have a clean entry and there's no one behind him.

You can see that with Sanheim, when the season started he was out of position too often, free lancing, trying to make things happen. Since he returned he's been more disciplined, still had a number of opportunitites to make plays, but wasn't forcing things. Over the course of a season, he'll have 3-4 chances a game to jump in, which means 250-300 opportunities over 80 games - hit on 10-15% of them and you're a 30 point ES D-man.

Keep a list of the plays next game that you attribute to a Ghost failure that allows a score for the opposition. Your example of blaming him for the result of a goal last game helps me understand your misguided insight. Their were plenty of touches between Ghost's and the goal and they failed to move the puck out of the zone when the opportunity arose. That example leads me to believe if ghost touches the puck during a series then all others no longer have a responsibility to clear of control. Hockey is a team sport last I looked.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think deadhead is right. Ghost does make more turnovers than you'd like to see. But considering how much good he does -- and he's been pretty good in defensive coverage this year, IMO, I'm not going to complain much.

 

[flyershockey]

Provorov had more giveaways than Ghost last year, and has more this year as well. Guess by Deadhead's standards, he's also too reckless with the puck.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Provorov had more giveaways than Ghost last year, and has more this year as well. Guess by Deadhead's standards, he's also too reckless with the puck.

By deadhead's standards, he's too small to be playing a sport that uses a puck, or possibly to be playing any sport, or possibly to function in polite society. Mass + bulk + velocity + height etc. That's the key. Chuck all that s**t in a blender and you might have something.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Hagg seems like the best fit with Ghost, and as he gets more experienced and the two work together, they may improve further as a pair.

Right now Provorov - MacDonald could be our best 'shut-down' pair as long as MacDonald keeps this up, though I'd wish he'd stop with the slapshots from the point that miss the net and fly back out. Whether MacDonald will keep up this level of play remains to be seen, but the last few games are the best he's looked as a Flyer.

Gudas and Sanheim is the shakiest pair right now, but Gudas seems to be getting his legs back and Sanheim is figuring it out, so there's a lot of upside between them.

There's something to be said for establishing some continuity.

FWIW, in the early going, Sanheim-Gudas have been a top 10 pair in the league by almost every notable metric.

Ghost-Hagg have a GF% of 86 (3rd best in the league). They have an xGF% of 43 (11th worst), so if things continue, we should expect heavy regression in that area.

 

[hayen]

I think deadhead is right. Ghost does make more turnovers than you'd like to see. But considering how much good he does -- and he's been pretty good in defensive coverage this year, IMO, I'm not going to complain much.

Ghost is not perfection but he is makes things happen and with that is some risk. Overall 95% + of the time it does not hurt but helps the play and then future plays because the choice of movement is less predictable by the opposing team. His +-ratio and point production this year supports that his game sense should be supported to a large extent until the choices he makes tip the scale in the wrong direction.
Shattenkirk -5
Letang -5
Just naming a few premieres that I've watched games of this year and I like Ghost's play within the Flyers plan better

 

[deadhead]

I think deadhead is right. Ghost does make more turnovers than you'd like to see. But considering how much good he does -- and he's been pretty good in defensive coverage this year, IMO, I'm not going to complain much.

Ghost just has to cut down on some of the reckless plays. Sometimes less is more.
A lot of player development is subtle, hockey is sort of a stochastic sport, because actual events (goals) are rare, what you're really trying to do is maximize your opportunities and limit your opponent's opportunities.
So little things can add up 0ver 82 games, take away a couple opponent scoring chances a game, for example.

Do not want to break up Ghost - Hagg, let them grow together, Hagg is perfect b/c he's physical and doesn't seem to need the puck, but isn't hapless when he has to skate with it or pass it. So it allows Ghost to be the dominant puck handler with someone who'll CYA for him.

With MacDonald out,
Provorov - Gudas
Morin - Sanheim are the best combinations, don't like moving Sanheim to the right side, but unless Myers is considered as ready as Morin, don't see much choice.

 

[Rebels57]

How is xGF% calculated?

 

[deadhead]

https://blackhawksbreakdown.com/2016/09/14/stats-explained-expected-goal-for-percentage-xgf/

SOunds like it's half of the calculation for Expected +/-

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yeah, it's basically just adding shot quality to totals. The problem is that the way quality is assessed is not standardized, so different sites will have different value outputs. The important part is that it's meant to be descriptive rather than predictive.

SOunds like it's half of the calculation for Expected +/-

You're trying to kill me, aren't you? I apologize for whatever I've done.

 

[Curufinwe]

Congrats, you've now surpassed jtown in the most ridiculous axe to grind section of this forum. Keep reaching, my friend.

Speaking of ridiculous axes, there's also that guy who hates Alex Lyon for no discernible reason.

 

[Striiker]

Why not direct hatred towards someone who actually deserves it?

Like Weal.

 

[Magua]

Ghost-Hagg have a GF% of 86 (3rd best in the league). They have an xGF% of 43 (11th worst), so if things continue, we should expect heavy regression in that area.

I find it fascinating that Ghost has the lowest on-ice expected goals for/60 on the team, according to Corsica. And Hagg has the highest expected goals against/60 on the team. Sure doesn't jibe with narratives of their respective offensive and defensive prowess. I've always been on Team Ambivalent with Hagg, but Ghost has looked fantastic to the eye. Obviously it's still early, but I didn't think they were THAT bad as a pair, even acknowledging the effect an 86% GF% can have on perception.

The top line+Weal does as well or better with Ghost in all the scoring chance stats as they do apart (again, small sample). So, the Ghost-Hagg pair certainly hasn't been a drag on them. But the pair has been getting ravaged apart from those 4, especially in high danger chance %. Everyone does significantly better apart from Ghost-Hagg in HDCF%, besides the mess that is the Patrick line. Is that the team, them, both, small sample? I'm having trouble parsing it out.

The 6th worst relative xGF% (11th worst xGF%) of any pair in hockey isn't terribly encouraging. But then you have Provorov-MacDonald grading out as a top 30 pair leaguewide. I'm just going to wait and see, I guess, because I can't make sense of why their underlying numbers are quite that poor and you see some odd names near the top and at the bottom right now in xGF% or relxGF%. But it's a real eye vs stats tester right now.

 

[deadhead]

SSS. Give up a few breakaways and good scoring chances in your D-zone and your numbers will skew, same way playing some teams that shoot a lot (Florida) can skew your Corsi numbers.

And it's early in other ways, Ghost and Hagg only have eight games, Hagg is still getting used to NHL speed. A lot of these numbers should make more sense by game 20.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Those aren't Corsi numbers.

 

[deadhead]

No they're not, if you actually read my post you'd realize that I was merely pointing out in a short sample that both expected scoring and Corsi can be skewed by an anomalous game or opponent.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

If anyone finds themself short of hate, I have extra and my rates are reasonable.

 

[FLYguy3911]

No they're not, if you actually read my post you'd realize that I was merely pointing out in a short sample that both expected scoring and Corsi can be skewed by an anomalous game or opponent.

There’s a difference between conceding low percentage shot attempts in a blowout win and giving up scoring chances and “a few breakaways”. Yes it’s a small sample but they are still getting outchanced more than any other pair. All that’s being pointed out is the on ice goal results probably aren’t sustainable and if they don’t have the on ice goal results, fans probably aren’t singing their praises as that is what fans remember- results.