2023 Draft Thread (Lottery Drawing 05/08/23 8PM)

[CBJWerenski8]

That’s great and all but I would still take Carlsson personally

 

[BB88]

Just yesterday said on Carlsson is probably the most underrated prospect from the top5

He’s playing againts the toughest competition and just getting better and better.

Add the 6’3 frame and as a reward he’s dropping.

Every year we see how short tournaments get overrated

 

[Nanabijou]

Without having seen Carlsson or Smith much, I'm just happy that there is likely to be a very good player available (based on current scout consensus) even if CBJ pick 4. Seems like the drop off occurs after that or after 5 if a team is comfortable with the Russian issues (KHL contract, war, etc).

 

[GoJackets1]

Just yesterday said on Carlsson is probably the most underrated prospect from the top5

He’s playing againts the toughest competition and just getting better and better.

Add the 6’3 frame and as a reward he’s dropping.

Every year we see how short tournaments get overrated

Out of all of the guys at the top, Carlsson seems to be the one that is most noticeably improving. At least to my eye. I didn't like him much at all early on in the season, and now I am super excited about him. Picking top 3 remains a huge need for CBJ.

My only hope at 4 is that the Ducks or another team with a couple of young centers are picking at 3 and view Carlsson as redundant to a guy like McTavish, and take either Smith or Michkov.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Just yesterday said on Carlsson is probably the most underrated prospect from the top5

He’s playing againts the toughest competition and just getting better and better.

Add the 6’3 frame and as a reward he’s dropping.

Every year we see how short tournaments get overrated

It’s more that Carlsson played wing past 2 seasons , his skating and his shooting are a question mark . Is he a good enough skater, have the foot speed to be center in the NHL? Great passer , but even in the playoffs he had 1g and 8a.. yes I know , tougher competition… Also , Will Smith balled out .. people forget , he passed Matthews and Hughes in points, he’s 2nd all time behind Kucherov in U-18 tournament points .. Clear to see why Portzline was hearing Will Smith weeks ago . Carlsson is bigger no doubt , Will Smith is a better shooter , better skater , his question mark is lacks intensity away from the puck . What scouts have to figure out is , is it a system issue , conditioning perhaps, or maybe just bored with the competition.. This is 3 straight now that have Will Smith screeching up the draft boards .. Clearly the drop off isn’t at 3 , which is great for the CBJ. Who the CBJ feels will be the better center is who they draft .. once again .. a good problem to have

 

[BB88]

It’s more that Carlsson played wing past 2 seasons , his skating and his shooting are a question mark . Great passer , but even in the playoffs he had 1g and 8a… Also , Will Smith balled out .. people forget , he passed Matthews and Hughes in points, he’s 2nd all time behind Kucherov in U-18 tournament points .. Clear to see why Portzline was hearing Will Smith weeks ago . Carlsson is bigger no doubt , Will Smith is a better shooter , better skater , his question mark is lacks intensity away from the puck . What scouts have to figure out is , is it a system issue , conditioning perhaps, or maybe just bored with the competition.. This is 3 straight now that have Will Smith screeching up the order

Matthews played his draft season in Europe.

Carlsson is playing at worst in the 2nd toughest league a draft prospect can play, against men.

Now he’s getting reps as a 1C for Swe mens national team.

You understand the difference in competition the 2 have?

If you want to go at Carlsson skating you better think Smith skates in mud.
Carlsson is an impact player against grown men, his skating isn’t limiting him at all.

+ he’s a far more versatile player and has clear size/strenght advantage.

I’d want Jarmo fired on the spot if he goes Smith over Carlsson

 

[Monk]

Clearly the drop off isn’t at 3 , which is great for the CBJ. Who the CBJ feels will be the better center is who they draft .. once again .. a good problem to have

Details aside, I think this is really my main takeaway from your debate with BB88/MM coupled with the recently updated lists from the pros. Makes me feel less anxious about the ping pong balls.

 

[squashmaple]

I don't like the tone a lot of fan pre-draft player discussion takes of only focusing on these kids' flaws and what they're not. They're babies. Some of them are barely 18. None of them is finished, not even Bedard.

I will be delighted with either Smith (seems to be a very Jarmo type of kid, in the vein of KJ and Mateychuk) or Carlsson (who's been my favorite since even before it looked like we'd be likely top four). I am not letting myself even read about Bedard or Fantilli at this point; I can do that if we win the lottery.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Matthews played his draft season in Europe.

Carlsson is playing at worst in the 2nd toughest league a draft prospect can play, against men.

Now he’s getting reps as a 1C for Swe mens national team.

You understand the difference in competition the 2 have?

If you want to go at Carlsson skating you better think Smith skates in mud.
Carlsson is an impact player against grown men, his skating isn’t limiting him at all.

+ he’s a far more versatile player and has clear size/strenght advantage.

I’d want Jarmo fired on the spot if he goes Smith over Carlsson

I certainly do .. honestly I think you’re too personally invested .. that’s 3 straight publications in past week that have WS and Carlsson neck and neck , with TSN having WS now above Carlsson . I won’t pretend to know who the cbj should take , as we aren’t professional scouts . There are questions is Carlsson has the foot speed/ skating , as well as his shooting ability to be a top line center in the nhl. Smith is every bit the playmaker , much better goal scorer .. but not as good defensively , a little smaller .. if the cbj have Smith as the better center , I’m all In.. they did great getting KJ and Jiricek


Here’s quote from TSN /Mckenzie today…

One scout said he believes Fantilli is closer to Bedard than the other three top prospects — Smith, Carlsson and Michkov — are to Fantilli.
Nevertheless, each of that trio is viewed by some as a viable consideration at No. 2.
Smith is No. 3 on our Draft Lottery Edition ranking.
His strong offensive play in 2023 — most recently at the IIHF Under-18 World Championship, while centering right winger Ryan Leonard and left winger Gabriel Perreault on the most dominant line in hockey outside of the NHL — has seen Smith’s draft stock soar. Smith was No. 6 on TSN’s mid-season list.
One scout who ranked Smith at No. 2 said that, outside of Bedard, Smith has been most dominant in the second half of the season, and he plays and thinks the game at a pace that no one can keep up to.
Swedish two-way centre Carlsson was No. 3 on TSN’s mid-season list and is No. 4 on the Draft Lottery Edition after being displaced by Smith. But the margins amongst these top prospects are razor thin and Carlsson is still very much projected as a blue-chip NHL pivot.
One scout who has Carlson at No. 2 believes the Swede’s high hockey IQ, along with his size, skill and attention to detail in his two-way game, will make him the best centre, aside from Bedard, in this draft.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I just hope to god the ducks don’t win the pick. If that Pittsburgh win cost us bedard or Fantilli I think I’d go insane.

 

[stevo61]

I just hope to god the ducks don’t win the pick. If that Pittsburgh win cost us bedard or Fantilli I think I’d go insane.

besides us winning isnt Ducks winning the best case scenario?
I guess another team could win 1st and we can win 2nd

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I just hope to god the ducks don’t win the pick. If that Pittsburgh win cost us bedard or Fantilli I think I’d go insane.

ducks winning the pick ensures that the jackets pick no later than third, however.

the ideal scenario is cbj winning, but the second best scenario is the ducks, as painful as that'd make the pittsburgh game in hindsight.

 

[squashmaple]

I just hope to god the ducks don’t win the pick. If that Pittsburgh win cost us bedard or Fantilli I think I’d go insane.

At least Ducks fans are generally pretty cool. My worst case scenarios are Washington and Montreal.

 

[majormajor]

Well Bob's list is great news.

There is the possibility that the Jackets take Smith and he is just a one way winger and not super valuable, and that would suck. But I always have to weigh the chance that my evaluations are wrong, and if nhl scouts are putting Smith at 3rd then I'm more likely to have it wrong, and that would be great.

It also creates a legit chance that Carlsson will be there at #4. I still have a harder time imagining NHL GMs passing on the 6'3 center, but now there's a real world where trading up from #4 to #3 is possible. Even if you love Smith I'd still argue that there are some factors that would make Carlsson a better pick for the Jackets. We would want a big strong player who is relatively ready and plays like a traditional center.

 

[Xoggz22]

All that’s projections/guess work.

That doesn’t really say how he is a good 2way player or was at the u18’s.

What assets currently Smith possesses leads for the projection of a good 2way C?

He’s not the best skater
He lacks strenght
Show far he’s lacked the motor/engagement

He’s much much more like Kane than Barkov

Again, if we project who’ll end up as a good 2way player it’s Leonard from that line.
His compete level is much higher, skating, defensive awareness, physicality

Again.... I'll harp on the bold.... I have not seen anything written that indicates he's a poor skater. To the contrary I have seen multiple articles that indicate his skating rates from "acceptable" to "plus". Are we confusing skating with his "drive" as @majormajor has pointed out? And show me one hundred 18 year olds and I'll show you 95+ that "lack strength" to be NHL players.

Anyone watch Gretzky skate? Tell me coming out he was a good skater and had strength? And yeah... I know... here comes the "I can't believe you are comparing this guy to Gretzky... get bent" crowd. No, that's not what I'm saying. Point goes back to the earlier post that what they are now isn't/doesn't have to be what they are in 2, 5, 10 years. Everything I have seen about Smith for the "we don't want Smith" crowd is all physical traits that can be overcome. If he's a bad skater... check, improved. Lacks strength? yup, we can fix that. Lacks motor/engagement. Check, cover that too. Now this all is a function of how willing this kid (or any kid) is willing to go. Read the articles on him from the time he walked in the gym as a 15 year old to where he is today and tell me he has no drive.

Again, I'm not saying we go out and draft Smith but as I read these things I can see how disappointed so many of you will be if he is drafted at 3 or 4 because he isn't Fantilli or Bedard, not because he's Smith. You're entitled to your opinions and I accept that but I disagree with the fan views vs those that do this for a living. Add Michkov to this rant too.

 

[majormajor]

Again.... I'll harp on the bold.... I have not seen anything written that indicates he's a poor skater. To the contrary I have seen multiple articles that indicate his skating rates from "acceptable" to "plus". Are we confusing skating with his "drive" as @majormajor has pointed out? And show me one hundred 18 year olds and I'll show you 95+ that "lack strength" to be NHL players.

Anyone watch Gretzky skate? Tell me coming out he was a good skater and had strength? And yeah... I know... here comes the "I can't believe you are comparing this guy to Gretzky... get bent" crowd. No, that's not what I'm saying. Point goes back to the earlier post that what they are now isn't/doesn't have to be what they are in 2, 5, 10 years. Everything I have seen about Smith for the "we don't want Smith" crowd is all physical traits that can be overcome. If he's a bad skater... check, improved. Lacks strength? yup, we can fix that. Lacks motor/engagement. Check, cover that too. Now this all is a function of how willing this kid (or any kid) is willing to go. Read the articles on him from the time he walked in the gym as a 15 year old to where he is today and tell me he has no drive.

Again, I'm not saying we go out and draft Smith but as I read these things I can see how disappointed so many of you will be if he is drafted at 3 or 4 because he isn't Fantilli or Bedard, not because he's Smith. You're entitled to your opinions and I accept that but I disagree with the fan views vs those that do this for a living. Add Michkov to this rant too.

It could all end up improved for Smith, sure. We can't rule it out.

But you'd think from this post that every kid ends up fast, tireless, and strong if he just tries hard enough. There are obviously plenty of NHLers where it doesn't end up that way. Not everyone has the genetics for it.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Everything I have seen about Smith for the "we don't want Smith" crowd is all physical traits that can be overcome. If he's a bad skater... check, improved. Lacks strength? yup, we can fix that. Lacks motor/engagement. Check, cover that too. Now this all is a function of how willing this kid (or any kid) is willing to go. Read the articles on him from the time he walked in the gym as a 15 year old to where he is today and tell me he has no drive.

this quote from bob's board today about smith has me absolutely giddy about drafting him:

One scout who ranked Smith at No. 2 said that, outside of Bedard, Smith has been most dominant in the second half of the season, and he plays and thinks the game at a pace that no one can keep up to.

i'm not saying he skates like pavel bure or anything but the fact that an NHL scout has him at #2 behind bedard because no one in the class plays at the pace that he does. not just that he 'thinks' at a higher pace (which in itself can mitigate skating issues) but that he actually plays fast.

the jackets can't drop beyond #4 and this is ostensibly a five-player draft, with guys 2-5 separated by a razor-thin margin. they'll get their pick of smith/carlsson/michkov. even if they fall to 4 there's not much to complain about imo.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

ducks winning the pick ensures that the jackets pick no later than third, however.

the ideal scenario is cbj winning, but the second best scenario is the ducks, as painful as that'd make the pittsburgh game in hindsight.

Fair. I just don’t know how I will handle it.

 

[BB88]

I certainly do .. honestly I think you’re too personally invested .. that’s 3 straight publications in past week that have WS and Carlsson neck and neck , with TSN having WS now above Carlsson . I won’t pretend to know who the cbj should take , as we aren’t professional scouts . There are questions is Carlsson has the foot speed/ skating , as well as his shooting ability to be a top line center in the nhl. Smith is every bit the playmaker , much better goal scorer .. but not as good defensively , a little smaller .. if the cbj have Smith as the better center , I’m all In.. they did great getting KJ and Jiricek


Here’s quote from TSN /Mckenzie today…

One scout said he believes Fantilli is closer to Bedard than the other three top prospects — Smith, Carlsson and Michkov — are to Fantilli.
Nevertheless, each of that trio is viewed by some as a viable consideration at No. 2.
Smith is No. 3 on our Draft Lottery Edition ranking.
His strong offensive play in 2023 — most recently at the IIHF Under-18 World Championship, while centering right winger Ryan Leonard and left winger Gabriel Perreault on the most dominant line in hockey outside of the NHL — has seen Smith’s draft stock soar. Smith was No. 6 on TSN’s mid-season list.
One scout who ranked Smith at No. 2 said that, outside of Bedard, Smith has been most dominant in the second half of the season, and he plays and thinks the game at a pace that no one can keep up to.
Swedish two-way centre Carlsson was No. 3 on TSN’s mid-season list and is No. 4 on the Draft Lottery Edition after being displaced by Smith. But the margins amongst these top prospects are razor thin and Carlsson is still very much projected as a blue-chip NHL pivot.
One scout who has Carlson at No. 2 believes the Swede’s high hockey IQ, along with his size, skill and attention to detail in his two-way game, will make him the best centre, aside from Bedard, in this draft.

Of course they have because the u18’s just ended and none of the other top prospects were there.

Talking about Carlssons skating ”issue” is just being stuck in the past.
There’s nothing showing in his skating that it would be a limiting factor in his game, Smith has more skating concerns as a smaller, weaker player who’s not elite at skating

I can’t wait for the WC to start to people to see how silly all the talk is

I just hope to god the ducks don’t win the pick. If that Pittsburgh win cost us bedard or Fantilli I think I’d go insane.

It’s honestly tough to see a last place team win the #1 3 years in a row

 

[Viqsi]

At least Ducks fans are generally pretty cool. My worst case scenarios are Washington and Montreal.

Mine are Montreal, Chicago, a bit of a gap, and then either of Washington or Philadelphia and those two are just because of the whole "divisional rival jumps us" thing.

 

[BB88]

Again.... I'll harp on the bold.... I have not seen anything written that indicates he's a poor skater. To the contrary I have seen multiple articles that indicate his skating rates from "acceptable" to "plus". Are we confusing skating with his "drive" as @majormajor has pointed out? And show me one hundred 18 year olds and I'll show you 95+ that "lack strength" to be NHL players.

Anyone watch Gretzky skate? Tell me coming out he was a good skater and had strength? And yeah... I know... here comes the "I can't believe you are comparing this guy to Gretzky... get bent" crowd. No, that's not what I'm saying. Point goes back to the earlier post that what they are now isn't/doesn't have to be what they are in 2, 5, 10 years. Everything I have seen about Smith for the "we don't want Smith" crowd is all physical traits that can be overcome. If he's a bad skater... check, improved. Lacks strength? yup, we can fix that. Lacks motor/engagement. Check, cover that too. Now this all is a function of how willing this kid (or any kid) is willing to go. Read the articles on him from the time he walked in the gym as a 15 year old to where he is today and tell me he has no drive.

Again, I'm not saying we go out and draft Smith but as I read these things I can see how disappointed so many of you will be if he is drafted at 3 or 4 because he isn't Fantilli or Bedard, not because he's Smith. You're entitled to your opinions and I accept that but I disagree with the fan views vs those that do this for a living. Add Michkov to this rant too.

Nowhere have I said that he’s a bad skater.

But for smaller players skating becomes more important.
Being a smaller player with average skating raises the risk factor by a lot. Especially if one is looking at the franchise C you can build around

Carlsson just feels like the ideal franchise C prospect to build around, for what you can ever wish at getting at #3

I don ’t hate Smith, I just see him as the riskiesr pick& the goal is this draft to be a franchise changing draft

Edit

& if they pick Smith I’d never root against him, I’d of course want to him to max out his ceiling and become an unbeliavable offensive player

 

[CBJx614]

It’s honestly tough to see a last place team win the #1 3 years in a row

Don't worry, this will be the year that two teams outside the top 5 win.

 

[BB88]

Don't worry, this will be the year that two teams outside the top 5 win.

As long as it isn’t Montreal

 

[majormajor]

I can’t wait for the WC to start to people to see how silly all the talk is

I wouldn't mind if people slept on Carlsson a bit more, as long as it isn't our FO doing the sleeping.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

ducks winning the pick ensures that the jackets pick no later than third, however.

the ideal scenario is cbj winning, but the second best scenario is the ducks, as painful as that'd make the pittsburgh game in hindsight.

Not if Ottawa and then another team wins the lottery.