2023 Draft Thread (Lottery Drawing 05/08/23 8PM)

[koteka]

5. Trade the pick for an established top-6 C or a high-end C prospect

My question is what is possible if we trade down. Arizona might be interesting. Because of their timeline and no arena issue, they might want Michkov. Right now they are 6 and 12 (from Ottawa). Let’s say we get jumped by two teams and Arizona‘s pick is jumped by one. Do we trade back the 4th pick for the 7th and 12th? Assuming the first five picks are Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, … Maybe that gets us Reinbacher/Dvorsky and Honzek.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

I think Davidsons interview this week made it very clear that Michkov is not going to be a pick.

“This is a particular draft where, yes, there’s a dimensional player at the top, but there’s a lot of very, very good players, and a number of them are center icemen,” Davidson said. “I would venture to say now that when we go through the draft in late June, we’re going to have a center iceman join our team and that’s something that we really need.”

“A lot of people do talk about Bedard as a generational player, number one, but when you go through the next number of players, these are very exciting players and very good players,” Davidson said. “As I said, a number of them are center icemen, which we need badly.”


Also he discusses what they are looking for in the next coach , and emphasizes again they will bring in someone that can develop young talent

One-on-one with Columbus Blue Jackets President of Hockey Operations John Davidson

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — The Columbus Blue Jackets are awaiting the NHL draft lottery, scheduled for Monday at 8 p.m. The Jackets finished second to last in the NHL for the 2022-23 season. Because o…

www.nbc4i.com

I finally got around to watching the actual video of this interview. You get a lot more color from the video than just the transcript. I thought JD was very open about the draft and the coaching search.

Agreed and reiterated- we are not drafting a winger with the top pick. He couldn't have been more clear, again.
Sounds to me like they definitely favor a developmental coach with some head coaching experience over a seasoned retread for the coach. To me that says we're not high on Laviolette, Boudrou, Sutter, Julien, etc.

 

[KJ Dangler]

I finally got around to watching the actual video of this interview. You get a lot more color from the video than just the transcript. I thought JD was very open about the draft and the coaching search.

Agreed and reiterated- we are not drafting a winger with the top pick. He couldn't have been more clear, again.
Sounds to me like they definitely favor a developmental coach with some head coaching experience over a seasoned retread for the coach. To me that says we're not high on Laviolette, Boudrou, Sutter, Julien, etc.

Yup.. and if you go back and watch Jarmos pc , what they are looking for in a head coach , he specifically said the same thing .. a coach that will develop the young talent . Of all the retreads , Gallant is probably the closest to that .. my guess is Carberry, Brunette, Vincent , Jay Leach , Velucci and Gallant if available , are your candidates ..

 

[BB88]

So if we take what JD said about exiting the draft with a new center at face value, what could be the odds for these possible options in a scenario where Jackets pick 4th and Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson goes in top-3?

1. Draft Smith at 4
2. Draft Dvorsky at 4
3. Draft another C at 4
4. Trade down to pick one of the above or another C
5. Trade the pick for an established top-6 C or a high-end C prospect

With those options the 1) is 100%

The pick is not getting moved, you don’t rebuild that way

My question is what is possible if we trade down. Arizona might be interesting. Because of their timeline and no arena issue, they might want Michkov. Right now they are 6 and 12 (from Ottawa). Let’s say we get jumped by two teams and Arizona‘s pick is jumped by one. Do we trade back the 4th pick for the 7th and 12th? Assuming the first five picks are Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, … Maybe that gets us Reinbacher/Dvorsky and Honzek.

They need a 1C.

This isn’t the draft to go for quantity over quality

 

[squashmaple]

How does the four-"digit" combination of numbers between 1 and 14 (which is not a digit, by the way) amount to 1 001 though? If you draw one ball at a time and don't put it back in, surely the number of possible combinations is 14 × 13 ×12 × 11 = 24 024?

Maybe the balls with numbers higher than 9 are worth two digits so that he is correct when describing it as a four-digit number? But then surely the same number can appear twice, such as 1489?

Either I misunderstand or Portzline does.

And, by the way, if they wanted exactly 1 000 combinations, why not just have ten balls numbered 0–9 and run it three times, putting the winning ball back in? Then you get a random number between 0 and 999...

You’re overthinking it. It’s sequences of four numbers, such as 1-6-9-11. They don’t scramble them, so there is only one combination with 1, 6, 9, and 11. And they draw four balls at a time to determine which sequences win. It’s not like the lottery for who won the placeholder pick in 2020, with literally one ball.

Someone posted the literal papers where the wrote down the sequences from 2022 on twitter recently. Like handwritten in the margins of lists of four-number sequences showing that Jersey won second and Montreal won first.

 

[koteka]

They need a 1C.

This isn’t the draft to go for quantity over quality

Agreed. But what if they rank the potential 1Cs something like Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Dvorak, Honzek, Danielson, Stenberg? If they are at 4 and the top 3 choices are gone, they could trade with Arizona and potentially draft Dvorak, Honzek, and Stenberg (with LA pick) - their 4th, 5th, and 7th ranked centers.

 

[tunnelvision]

My question is what is possible if we trade down. Arizona might be interesting. Because of their timeline and no arena issue, they might want Michkov. Right now they are 6 and 12 (from Ottawa). Let’s say we get jumped by two teams and Arizona‘s pick is jumped by one. Do we trade back the 4th pick for the 7th and 12th? Assuming the first five picks are Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, … Maybe that gets us Reinbacher/Dvorsky and Honzek.

Reinbacher and Honzek are not centers though. Would they use Kings pick to upgrade center ice then?

With those options the 1) is 100%

The pick is not getting moved, you don’t rebuild that way

To be frank I'm not impressed of your reasoning here. What if they think Dvorsky is the best center after Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli, and they're also informed that teams behind them like Smith, Leonard, Michkov, Benson etc more than Dvorsky. It wouldn't make sense from an asset management point of view to NOT move down a couple spots. And that's just one example.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

You’re overthinking it. It’s sequences of four numbers, such as 1-6-9-11. They don’t scramble them, so there is only one combination with 1, 6, 9, and 11. And they draw four balls at a time to determine which sequences win. It’s not like the lottery for who won the placeholder pick in 2020, with literally one ball.

Yes. Fourteen balls. Four are drawn. That gives 14 × 13 × 12 × 11 = 24 024 possible sequences, not 1 001.

 

[Xoggz22]

It’s alright.

But I just don’t see the poor comments anywhere.
Rather it’s not up to the level you want it for a smaller player

I guess I don't see 6' and 182 as a small player. I see under 6' maybe considered small. Then again when 5'9" most are bigger than me

 

[Xoggz22]

Reinbacher and Honzek are not centers though. Would they use Kings pick to upgrade center ice then?

I had read, or heard, that Honzek had been used, tried?, at center. Not advocating but that would be interesting with our 2nd if he's there. He's got some tools regardless of where he ends up

 

[koteka]

Reinbacher and Honzek are not centers though. Would they use Kings pick to upgrade center ice then?

In that scenario Reinbacher is the insurance policy in case Dvorsky is picked at 6. I would be ok with Reinbacher and another pick. Honzek might be an NHL center.

I don’t see the Kings pick getting us a potential top 6 center. Even in a package. Top 6 centers are too valuable to move. Which is why there are discussions about overpaid guys near the end of their careers as options such as Hayes and Johansen.

 

[squashmaple]

Yes. Fourteen balls. Four are drawn. That gives 14 × 13 × 12 × 11 = 24 024 possible sequences, not 1 001.

Again, you’re overthinking. It’s not the full array of possibilities.

 

[Longtime Local]

Yes. Fourteen balls. Four are drawn. That gives 14 × 13 × 12 × 11 = 24 024 possible sequences, not 1 001.

That would be true if the sequence in which the balls are drawn matters, but it does not. For example, if the balls were drawn and came out 1,2,3,4, that would not be the same sequence as 4,3,2,1, even though the numbers are the same. That would mean that there are 24,024 different sequences. But according to the nhl, the sequence does not matter, and therefore 1,2,3,4 is the same as 4,3,2,1. The order in which the balls come out of the machine does not matter so you need to divide 24,024 by 4! To find the number of possible number combinations where the sequence in which they are drawn does not matter. This is equal to (14x13x12x11)/(4x3x2x1)=24,024/24=1001.

 

[majormajor]

Look at the skating part, he's as good as Fantilli and Moore, scoring 9/10 in all categories. Better than Bedard as well. Don't you think there's something suspicious about his analysis?

9/10 in explosiveness for Michkov and for Smith. And I thought Pronman's skating grades were nonsensical.

I had a similar problem with Cosentino's player descriptions, which seemed like they got put in a blender.

It's a racket.

So if we take what JD said about exiting the draft with a new center at face value, what could be the odds for these possible options in a scenario where Jackets pick 4th and Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson goes in top-3?

1. Draft Smith at 4
2. Draft Dvorsky at 4
3. Draft another C at 4
4. Trade down to pick one of the above or another C
5. Trade the pick for an established top-6 C or a high-end C prospect

Could be any of them. For all we know they want Oliver Moore or they think Ryan Leonard would make a great center.

I was going along with the Jackets like Smith story but Porty said this week that he has no idea, he was just guessing because Smith looked good. It's still the most likely option but we don't know.

 

[majormajor]

This guys channel is quite good . He’s a former scout in whl for 5 years … Reminds me of Scouching….

Oh it's much better than Scouching. Very keen eye. The only quibble I'd have is with the player comps, that just went off the rails.

 

[majormajor]

Scout's Analysis: Ranking the top 60 prospects for the 2023 NHL Draft

Another one guy's opinion list. The thing that is interesting is how detailed his analysis is. Concerning is how he rates Smith defensively. Yikes. I'm not sure you want that from a 1C.

You really can see for yourself with Smith's off puck game. I don't think much expertise is needed to know that it is a pile of horse shit. He has games like this where he just doesn't seem to care at all. Imagine this effort in a Jackets uniform.

 

[BB88]

I guess I don't see 6' and 182 as a small player. I see under 6' maybe considered small. Then again when 5'9" most are bigger than me

I consider a 180cm with light frame a smaller player today

It doesn’t have to stay that way

Reinbacher and Honzek are not centers though. Would they use Kings pick to upgrade center ice then?


To be frank I'm not impressed of your reasoning here. What if they think Dvorsky is the best center after Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli, and they're also informed that teams behind them like Smith, Leonard, Michkov, Benson etc more than Dvorsky. It wouldn't make sense from an asset management point of view to NOT move down a couple spots. And that's just one example.

I just don’t see a realistic scenario where they’d be open to move down.

They clearly have 1 goal entering this draft and there’s a player with massive hype going to be available at #4.

I just can’t see it

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

You really can see for yourself with Smith's off puck game. I don't think much expertise is needed to know that it is a pile of horse shit. He has games like this where he just doesn't seem to care at all. Imagine this effort in a Jackets uniform.

Wow - his effort in that game looks a lot like PLD's last shift as a Blue Jacket. What a cherry-picking floater.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

That would be true if the sequence in which the balls are drawn matters, but it does not. For example, if the balls were drawn and came out 1,2,3,4, that would not be the same sequence as 4,3,2,1, even though the numbers are the same. That would mean that there are 24,024 different sequences. But according to the nhl, the sequence does not matter, and therefore 1,2,3,4 is the same as 4,3,2,1. The order in which the balls come out of the machine does not matter so you need to divide 24,024 by 4! To find the number of possible number combinations where the sequence in which they are drawn does not matter. This is equal to (14x13x12x11)/(4x3x2x1)=24,024/24=1001.

That makes sense, thanks!

 

[MoeBartoli]

In that scenario Reinbacher is the insurance policy in case Dvorsky is picked at 6. I would be ok with Reinbacher and another pick. Honzek might be an NHL center.

I don’t see the Kings pick getting us a potential top 6 center. Even in a package. Top 6 centers are too valuable to move. Which is why there are discussions about overpaid guys near the end of their careers as options such as Hayes and Johansen.

If Jarmo were to trade down, it’d be an example of Jarmo playing the role of “smartest person the room”, a role he’s comfortable playing. Any such inclination should prompt JD to lock him in the closet for the draft.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[ViD]

Are we doing a GDT tomorrow ?

 

[BB88]

The disrespect Aaron keeps throwing at Carlsson is getting tiresome.

For him this is a draft with Bedard& Fantilli.
Then a massive drop, in everything.
Talent, potential, NHL readiness.

He just can’t help himself and keep mention it about it 10x per podcast

 

[tunnelvision]

I had Simashev ahead of him and he might be there at #23. He also does transition with ease, also has no shot threat, but is much bigger and better defensively.

I just watched a few tapes of his shifts on youtube. Good transition skills in the sense that he has wheels and puck protection tools to carry pucks up ice but what do you think about his passing in breakouts and in OZ? He seems to prefer very obvious and safe plays, how much is he going to help on offense, other than immediately passing pucks from the point to the nearest teammate?

In this old KHL game video from September he does at least 2 plays that make me question his vision and passing (breakout pass to nobody at 1:15; instead of passing to the winger, does a successful but little risky clearing attempt at 4:00):


Defensively does he look relatively soft for his size? Isn't mean, doesn't deliver massive hits and positioning isn't always that great either. I wonder what was he thinking while defending the rush at 7:15 in the video, he isn't covering or boxing out anybody and as the puck is fired on net he's just standing alone at the far post.

Honzek might be an NHL center.

I had read, or heard, that Honzek had been used, tried?, at center. Not advocating but that would be interesting with our 2nd if he's there. He's got some tools regardless of where he ends up

What kind of NHL center are you seeing in him, is he fast enough to be a top-6 center?

According to whl.ca he took 60 faceoffs in 43 games this season, sounds like it was a very brief experiment.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Proof that even random number generators hate Columbus.