2023 Draft Thread (Lottery Drawing 05/08/23 8PM)

[majormajor]

Bedard is the "ecstatic, can't wait for next year" possibility. Either Fantilli or Carlsson would be a very nice consolation prize and I'd be OK with either. Just about anyone else would be a disappointment given the year we just had.

I've read some here and elsewhere about Carlsson and for whatever reason, what I take away from those is similar to what I remember people saying about Beniers. I could be way off base, but I'm just kind of hearing those echoes in what I've seen about Karlsson. There was an emphasis on Beniers' two way play, compete level and things like that, and I seem to catch that in anything I see about Karlsson, but there's the addition of skill. I can't be upset with getting an upskilled version of Beniers, given how he looked this year.

Fantilli gets a lot of attention for being kind of "gritty" or playing with some anger - not sure how to phrase it. Combined with what seems to be high skill.

Either of those sound like great fits given that the team is a bit undersized and less-than-stellar two way players and maybe a little "soft". There's a part of me that worries Bedard might be the best player but maybe not the right one for this team given the way it's currently composed. So I've really come around to anything in the top 3 will make me pretty happy.

I'd be ecstatic for Fantilli or Carlsson, I'd have both ahead of any draft prospect since 2018, maybe ahead of anyone since 2016.

Beniers was unusually complete as a prospect but wasn't seen as having elite offensive tools. Carlsson has elite offensive tools. He's spoken of as a highly complete player lately but that's largely because he's being compared to Smith and Michkov who are smaller, one way, and in my opinion, wingers. Carlsson's size and two way impacts are the big separator between him and Smith and Michkov. But he's not behind them in terms of offensive upside, he could become a 90 pt dominant #1C.

Columbus cap is in a great spot moving forward and Hanifin is not going to get a massive contract.

Eh, I'm not sure there won't be teams offering Hanifin an overpay (more than $6m). Big D with draft pedigree.

I certainly hope we give the Flames a call about him and see if we can talk to the player / his agent about an extension. They might ask for too much. We'll see.

Have you soured on Carlsson? I kid, i kid.

I think it's still a big 4 and will be happy with any of Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson or Michkov. All have the ability to be elite. Hell, I won't be crushed if it's Smith but you and I disagree completely on him.

One thing I'll say about Smith with all the rankings updates he seems to be more consistently placed at the top as opposed to some of the other high end talent. I just don't think we'll be disappointed with any of these players. And I'm a Reinbacher fan too. Just can't see him at 4 based on how I view the top 4.

I'm still considering Smith for #5, I see the talent. But he's a winger for me.

I went through Michkov video again and I found myself a lot more bullish on him with the video from before this year, and then down again with this year's video. He might be my #5 guy but I worry that he can't really work his magic vs grown men, he might not be able to get much stronger or much quicker.

 

[rarecanadianjacket]

Like it has been stated here multiple times the May 8th lottery drawing has a huge impact on the CBJ offseason acquisitions.

View attachment 693875

My draft order
1. Bedard - Start in the NHL
2. Carlson - Start in the AHL (Get use to NA ice)
3. Fantilli - Start in the AHL (get use to the grind) If he chooses to go pro.
4. Michkov - If chosen have to acquire someone like Lindholm and not Kevin Hayes. This will tighten our CAP numbers for the ‘24-‘25 season.

How do u take carlson over Fantilli?

 

[Youngguns80]

How do u take carlson over Fantilli?

He is already proving it in SHL. Been a pro for 2 seasons and getting better, showed well on the big stage tournaments, higher hockey IQ.

 

[BB88]

I'd be ecstatic for Fantilli or Carlsson, I'd have both ahead of any draft prospect since 2018, maybe ahead of anyone since 2016.

Beniers was unusually complete as a prospect but wasn't seen as having elite offensive tools. Carlsson has elite offensive tools. He's spoken of as a highly complete player lately but that's largely because he's being compared to Smith and Michkov who are smaller, one way, and in my opinion, wingers. Carlsson's size and two way impacts are the big separator between him and Smith and Michkov. But he's not behind them in terms of offensive upside, he could become a 90 pt dominant #1C.



Eh, I'm not sure there won't be teams offering Hanifin an overpay (more than $6m). Big D with draft pedigree.

I certainly hope we give the Flames a call about him and see if we can talk to the player / his agent about an extension. They might ask for too much. We'll see.



I'm still considering Smith for #5, I see the talent. But he's a winger for me.

I went through Michkov video again and I found myself a lot more bullish on him with the video from before this year, and then down again with this year's video. He might be my #5 guy but I worry that he can't really work his magic vs grown men, he might not be able to get much stronger or much quicker.

Given how the superstar tier is making 9-10M per day already I just don’t see locking up a 26y longterm at 6+ as a bad thing.

Chiarot/Gubranson type players got 4M, is it worth it to rather get a worse player at 5?

 

[NotCommitted]

Lundell was picked 12th OA, Carlsson is just a year ahead of him in the curve basically, so more talented / better at an earlier age. I was really impressed with Lundell's rookie year and he's doing very well for Florida in the playoffs now. Looking at some of the guys that were drafted before Lundell because of impressive junior production and supposed upside, if they did a redraft today, I think Lundell would go top5. And Carlsson is a better prospect, just looking at their respective production (SHL for Carlsson vs Liiga for Lundell & Barkov), I'd rate him somewhere between Lundell and Barkov, probably closer to Barkov. I know, not a very in-depth analysis

I think SHL / Liiga etc. sometimes go underrated simply because veteran players who get a chance later in their careers don't usually translate that well, or veteran career AHLers putting up great numbers there, but when talking about 17-18 year olds, they are playing in well coached, defensively tight pro leagues against men, that's a completely different game than what you see in juniors. They are learning the game in a way you just can't in the juniors, they lose in being unable to beast offensively, but they gain in rounding out their game.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Scott Wheeler article from this morning . Remember when I said Smith would make a push into possibly the top 3.. Tons of talent at the top of the draft .. Im not saying I prefer Smith to Carlsson or vice versa.. think it really comes down to is Carlsson a Center in the NHL.. there are questions on his foot speed , and his shot .. Smith seems to be no doubt a center at the NHL level. Smiths concerns , doesn't play overly physical..he can be good defensively , but definitely needs to work on this part of his game .



There were more questions about Will Smith than any other player, so I think this is the best place to start.

I think the simple answer to those first few questions is that yes, I think there’s a small-to-medium chance that Smith is drafted third or fourth, either because a team prefers him to Carlsson (my sense is that a minority of teams would take him over Carlsson, but I know there are some who like Smith better) and/or a team isn’t prepared to take the risk on Michkov in front of Smith

Pending the results of the draft lottery and the conversations I’m going to have with folks at the Scouting Combine, I think Bedard-into-Fantilli-into-Carlsson-into-Smith is the most likely of the possible outcomes at the top of the draft. When push comes to shove, I think teams are going to have a tough time taking Michkov in the top four because of the talent of those four other players (I don’t expect Michkov to fall out of the top 10 but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were picked No. 6-8 somewhere, either). And if they do, there’s no reason a bottom-feeding team should be upset about taking a player of Smith’s talent fifth

Smith does still have some detractors, though, in terms of that conversation, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that the team that drafts third or fourth likes him. Part of that is because of the questions about his play defensively, as alluded to in the final question. Smith certainly isn’t the most physically engaged player. He was often the third player back on that line and the first to flee the zone. You won’t see him below his own goal line battling for pucks all that consistently. But I do like the way he steals and lifts pucks coming back (he made major progress there) and I do believe in his first-line potential offensively. And if he reaches his ceiling offensively, I think a team will be prepared to live with him being a just-OK off-puck player. I don’t think he’ll be a liability out there

As far as the Fantilli vs. Michkov and Fantilli vs. Carlsson debates go:

• I think, even excluding all of the context around Michkov, that a consensus of scouts would favour Fantilli because of the clear advantages of his size, skating and position. I think Michkov is the more purely talented and gifted offensive player, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a better prospect on the whole.

• While a strong showing at men’s worlds could definitely help Carlsson’s stock (especially if he does it at centre after playing almost exclusively the wing in the SHL this season), I don’t anticipate him closing the gap with Fantilli, at least not for a strong majority of teams (I’m sure there’s the odd team that prefers Carlsson to Fantilli, or could, but that’s not a consensus belief and I don’t think it’ll get there even with the benefit of recency bias that would be afforded by a standout tournament with Team Sweden).

And being truthful to my notes and my projections of the two players, I had Eichel as a slightly better prospect than Fantilli at the same age. They are comparable in terms of tiers, though

 

[majormajor]

What roles on the ice define a center?

And what about that position has made the 1C position hard for the Jackets to fill over the years?

 

[Youngguns80]

Smith does still have some detractors, though, in terms of that conversation, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that the team that drafts third or fourth likes him. Part of that is because of the questions about his play defensively, as alluded to in the final question. Smith certainly isn’t the most physically engaged player. He was often the third player back on that line and the first to flee the zone. You won’t see him below his own goal line battling for pucks all that consistently. But I do like the way he steals and lifts pucks coming back (he made major progress there) and I do believe in his first-line potential offensively. And if he reaches his ceiling offensively, I think a team will be prepared to live with him being a just-OK off-puck player. I don’t think he’ll be a liability out there

Here has always been my major problem with Smith. He could be just-OK off-puck player. Are you prepared to settle for just ok. We have a lot of players who are just okay off the puck and that is our problem.

 

[Monk]

And what about that position has made the 1C position hard for the Jackets to fill over the years?

My take on this one is pretty simple: bad luck. Or perhaps: lack of good luck.

On a totally separate note, I'll be out to dinner the night of the draft lottery. I'll be a rather rude dinner guest methinks

 

[Cowumbus]

What roles on the ice define a center?

Win face offs, supporting the D on breakouts, transitioning the puck through the neutral zone, having the ability to play/check in both ends of the ice, win puck battles, and have solid on ice vision/hockey IQ to facilitate the puck (C should have the puck on their stick more than anyone), but also the ability to shoot/score goals. While not required, it is highly suggested that the C be an above average skater.

And what about that position has made the 1C position hard for the Jackets to fill over the years?

The fact that normally to have all those boxes checked, you need to draft those players (at the top of the draft). Very rarely do teams let those type of individuals leave.

You can get plenty of guys that check 2-3 of the boxes, but not many guys can check all of them.

Dubois pretty much checked all boxes.
Duchene missing only the two way ability.
Wennberg missing scoring/face off abilities.
Jenner missing skating/transition abilities.
Sillinger missing the skating/transition abilities.
Johnson missing the battle/face off abilities.

 

[majormajor]

Win face offs, supporting the D on breakouts, transitioning the puck through the neutral zone, having the ability to play/check in both ends of the ice, win puck battles, and have solid on ice vision/hockey IQ to facilitate the puck (C should have the puck on their stick more than anyone), but also the ability to shoot/score goals. While not required, it is highly suggested that the C be an above average skater.

The fact that normally to have all those boxes checked, you need to draft those players (at the top of the draft). Very rarely do teams let those type of individuals leave.

You can get plenty of guys that check 2-3 of the boxes, but not many guys can check all of them.

Dubois pretty much checked all boxes.
Duchene missing only the two way ability.
Wennberg missing scoring/face off abilities.
Jenner missing skating/transition abilities.
Sillinger missing the skating/transition abilities.
Johnson missing the battle/face off abilities.

And how many of the 5 or so boxes does Will Smith check? 2? If he's good enough to be our new top center, then we might as well put Gaudreau at center.

 

[GoJackets1]

Smith does still have some detractors, though, in terms of that conversation, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that the team that drafts third or fourth likes him. Part of that is because of the questions about his play defensively, as alluded to in the final question. Smith certainly isn’t the most physically engaged player. He was often the third player back on that line and the first to flee the zone. You won’t see him below his own goal line battling for pucks all that consistently. But I do like the way he steals and lifts pucks coming back (he made major progress there) and I do believe in his first-line potential offensively.

Smith seems to be no doubt a center at the NHL level. Smiths concerns , doesn't play overly physical..he can be good defensively , but definitely needs to work on this part of his game .

The first bolded part directly contradicts the second bolded part, at least in my mind. Same exact reason why some think Bedard will end up a wing at the NHL level.

Not to mention you say Carlsson has foot speed issues, but no mention of Smith's skating. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is not only his biggest question mark as a prospect, but also on his ability to play center at the NHL level.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

There’s a lot of good conversation about the pros and cons of smith at 4.

But other than Michkov. Who is someone we should take at 4 if it’s NOT smith or Michkov? There doesn’t seem to be many center options left. And almost no defensive. So, where to go ?

 

[GoJackets1]

There’s a lot of good conversation about the pros and cons of smith at 4.

But other than Michkov. Who is someone we should take at 4 if it’s NOT smith or Michkov? There doesn’t seem to be many center options left. And almost no defensive. So, where to go ?

I've not too sadly "resigned" myself to thinking it will be Smith at 4 for us. That said, if we're at 4, I'm going to pray someone takes Michkov in the top 3 and drops Carlsson to us.

Still have a weird feeling we'll be picking at 1 though.

 

[BB88]

Here has always been my major problem with Smith. He could be just-OK off-puck player. Are you prepared to settle for just ok. We have a lot of players who are just okay off the puck and that is our problem.

What I’d like to see is some evidence of Smith being a 2way C

Because I haven’t seen that, Leonard is the workhorseof and Smith very eager to cheat for offense

 

[Viqsi]

I don't know if you are suggesting Carlsson and Beniers are a comp but on The Athletic Hockey Show podcast they were comping Carlsson to Mikko Rantanen.

Leo would love it in Columbus...every night 18K fans would be cheering his name before the game even starts

Suddenly I badly want us to get Carlsson entirely for this reason alone. Because you just know cheering his name in the same fashion every time a goal or assist is announced will immediately become a thing.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

What I’d like to see is some evidence of Smith being a 2way C

Because I haven’t seen that, Leonard is the workhorseof and Smith very eager to cheat for offense

what i think some people miss is that these teams aren't drafting players for who they are but for who they could be -- their current game can certainly hint at the outcome but it's not a direct translation.

for example: in svozil's draft year, he was a defense-first guy who had questions about his offensive game. now he's a guy who activates a ton, because he went from a bit role in a men's league to a go-to role in junior.

with smith, his role at the NTDP is to be the go-to playmaker/points guy, so he cherry picks a lot. he'll likely (have to) prioritize different elements as he moves up the pro ranks. kent johnson had some similar question marks and i thought was very engaged/well-positioned in the d-zone once he got to the NHL.

 

[BB88]

what i think some people miss is that these teams aren't drafting players for who they are but for who they could be -- their current game can certainly hint at the outcome but it's not a direct translation.

for example: in svozil's draft year, he was a defense-first guy who had questions about his offensive game. now he's a guy who activates a ton, because he went from a bit role in a men's league to a go-to role in junior.

with smith, his role at the NTDP is to be the go-to playmaker/points guy, so he cherry picks a lot. he'll likely (have to) prioritize different elements as he moves up the pro ranks. kent johnson had some similar question marks and i thought was very engaged/well-positioned in the d-zone once he got to the NHL.

All that’s projections/guess work.

That doesn’t really say how he is a good 2way player or was at the u18’s.

What assets currently Smith possesses leads for the projection of a good 2way C?

He’s not the best skater
He lacks strenght
Show far he’s lacked the motor/engagement

He’s much much more like Kane than Barkov

Again, if we project who’ll end up as a good 2way player it’s Leonard from that line.
His compete level is much higher, skating, defensive awareness, physicality

 

[Cowumbus]

And how many of the 5 or so boxes does Will Smith check? 2? If he's good enough to be our new top center, then we might as well put Gaudreau at center.

I’m confused. I never made the argument that he was good enough to be our top C?

I thought you were just asking a question..

As for Smith, probably 2 ( transition, scoring threat) not sure how his face offs look. All the more reason to draft Yager at 23

Out of all the top prospects Fantilli checks the most boxes for what it takes to be a C.

I’m taking Michkov at 4 anyway.

 

[majormajor]

I’m confused. I never made the argument that he was good enough to be our top C?

I thought you were just asking a question..

As for Smith, probably 2 ( transition, scoring threat) not sure how his face offs look. All the more reason to draft Yager at 23

Out of all the top prospects Fantilli checks the most boxes for what it takes to be a C.

I’m taking Michkov at 4 anyway.

I wasn't disagreeing with you.

 

[BB88]

0+ 2 today centering Raymond and Eklund

 

[majormajor]

what i think some people miss is that these teams aren't drafting players for who they are but for who they could be -- their current game can certainly hint at the outcome but it's not a direct translation.

for example: in svozil's draft year, he was a defense-first guy who had questions about his offensive game. now he's a guy who activates a ton, because he went from a bit role in a men's league to a go-to role in junior.

with smith, his role at the NTDP is to be the go-to playmaker/points guy, so he cherry picks a lot. he'll likely (have to) prioritize different elements as he moves up the pro ranks. kent johnson had some similar question marks and i thought was very engaged/well-positioned in the d-zone once he got to the NHL.

I'm also trying to figure out who they'll be someday.

If the pros think Smith is going to massively improve his skating, stamina, and strength then go for it. They can find information that I can't. He'll be able to battle deep in his zone and launch breakouts from down there if he greatly improves along those attributes.

From here though it just feels unlikely, you're asking a guy to go from below average vs 17 year olds to at least average vs NHLers.

 

[Cowumbus]

For fun and ridicule I made a draft list.

1. Connor Bedard, 1C.
2. Leo Carlsson, 1C. So strong on the puck, perfect soft touch, great poise and decision making. There's some Barkov and some Sundin here. He has some minor mechanical issues in his skating which look like an easy fix.
3. Adamo Fantilli, 1C. I have him after Carlsson because his play selection isn't very good. His athleticism gets him so many chances, so it isn't a deal breaker for him to squander a lot of them. Reminds me of Tim Stutzle in that way. He'll be a great player regardless.
4. Zach Benson, 1/2F. There are some legit size concerns. Benson's skating has improved a lot so it seems he'll be elusive enough to still make a lot of plays against grown men. But he was also just injured after getting thrown into the boards. He'll offer all around ability at least. Brilliant player.
5. Oliver Moore, 2C. The fastest player and the player with the best workrate, Moore can tilt the ice. Good shot. Nothing special on playmaking but seems like he has enough for Dylan Larkin level upside.
6. David Reinbacher, Top 4RD. He has all the basics covered that made Jiricek a great pick last year. Better skater too. Very safe pick to be a top 4 guy and could be a #1D. Nothing is missing for him but also nothing super magical.
7. Matvei Michkov, 1W. There's a lot of red flags here. He looks different every time I see him. The talent is there. He should be able to score in the NHL. But I wonder if he'll put in consistent effort or if he'll be a good teammate. Could be a headache player for a variety of reasons. Or Kucherov.
8. Quentin Musty, 1/2W. Musty is another player with inconsistent efforts but he's trending very well. This is a big strong player with a very big talent level. Good skater, good shooter, great soft hands and playmaking ability. He has everything you can't teach, yet badly needs a teacher for the rest. Torts would be a perfect coach for him.
9. Samuel Honzek, 1/2W. A hulking winger that never misses an opportunity to take the puck to the net. Honzek is a bit slow and maybe a bit ungainly at this point but he's just filling out. Great hands and smarts.
10. Eduard Sale, 1/2W. Sale also loses ground because of inconsistent effort. He's underweight though so I can forgive him for not having the highest battle level at this point. He has a lot of skill for dangling and making plays. My uncertainty with him is how much stronger he'll get, because he isn't much of an athlete right now.
11. Ryan Leonard, 2F. A workhorse player that does Will Smith's defense for him. Leonard hits hard and plays with a terrific intensity. He has some quick hands in tight and a great shot.
12. Will Smith, 1/2W. Smith seems constitutionally disinclined to do the center duties supposedly given to him. Instead he waits like a Shark until the puck comes and then works his magic. Great playmaker but I think he'll be a maddening player for his coach.

Assume you soured on him quite a bit?

0+ 2 today centering Raymond and Eklund

Only thing that concerns me is his shot.

 

[majormajor]

Assume you soured on him quite a bit?


Only thing that concerns me is his shot.

I've been more impressed with Smith and Leonard in the last couple months. Moore is a half tier down for me. I wouldn't say I've soured, I still see him as a top six center that I'd love to have on my team.

Agreed on Carlsson's shot. But if there's one attribute a guy might completely change it's the shot. Sometimes guys try a different stick and it just pops.

 

[Cowumbus]

I've been more impressed with Smith and Leonard in the last couple months. Moore is a half tier down for me. I wouldn't say I've soured, I still see him as a top six center that I'd love to have on my team.

Agreed, seems like a Cirelli type where he doesn’t get the recognition he deserves.

Agreed on Carlsson's shot. But if there's one attribute a guy might completely change it's the shot. Sometimes guys try a different stick and it just pops.

I don’t disagree. I just would feel better seeing him show some ability to beat goalies from distance. Getting to the net is obviously a good thing though.