2022 Offseason Discussion Thread

[hairylikebear]

We make simplifying assumptions due to lack of information. Also when dangling a player like Hintz it makes available players you wouldn't expect. Like when Eriksson was traded, it wasn't even apparent at the time that Seguin was being shopped. Not to the public anyway.

The options look pretty slim to me. We're talking about a guy like Hronek coming back with some futures in a trade that would probably need to involve a third team. If you're willing to scale back the RHD requirement, Bowen Byram is a pretty attractive option. The Avs have a ton of reason to overvalue the next low cap year of Hintz if they can't re-sign Kadri.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Scoring is a weakness today, but isn't going to be a weakness in the coming years. The Stars have drafted nothing but talented forwards who will make impacts in their early 20s. The sense of trading Hintz for a D is that Hintz is that his peak might have been this season/last season, and signing him to a long-term contract (like Benn and Seguin) could leave this team once again paying a player for their past performance, not their future performance.

RHD is also not an organizational strength. Hakanpaa is the only one in the organization with a meaningful NHL future.

First of all, do you remember when Nill miraculously got Seguin and Spezza? Miraculously, because it is said that no. 1 centers almost never are traded, and for good reason.....it's among the hardest and most important spots on a roster to fill. So the Stars finally draft one (the best option possible) and the am GM's want to trade him because he MIGHT NOT be as good down the line, or MIGHT get hurt, or MIGHT want a lot of money?

So, yeah there would be a line to get into to trade for him, and he might yield a haul. If it is like the Johansen for Seth Jones trade, yes, we could get a D. Would that guy take a low Klingberg contract? Would he possibly get injured or decline? The problem with your, and most fan scenarios is that the unnamed player we will surely get will be absolutely perfect in every respect, which rarely happens in any league, NHL included.

Or do we trade quality for quantity, i.e. a bunch of lesser players to make sure we don't have to pay a lot in contracts? And typically, the team that trades for the best player wins the trade, which isn't likely to happen with a bunch of average players. The Stars don't need any more of those, they need some top end scorers, and if they trade Hintz, they need to get two back os similar quality to improve, no?

Or we trade him for a bunch of picks, meaning that while Johnston, Harley, etc. could come up and perhaps catch the end of Hintz's top play period, we delay the onslaught of young talent either further until they get here in a scenario like the current Benn and Seguin, i.e. past their prime, scenario, being more likely to be mediocre longer, rather than taking advantage of the good players we do have. And typically, the team that trades for the best player wins the trade, which isn't likely to happen with a bunch of draft picks.

Obviously we won't be able to run the many hypotheticals, but based on history, I am confident that trading Hintz wouldn't work out too well for us.

And, true hockey trades are pretty few and far between these days, but are really based on cap and other needs. As Bob Gainey once told me, good players are only offered around if they are hurt (maybe on Hintz, but doubtful) or have contract or attitude problems. As an RFA, I doubt Hintz will be a huge contract problem, and we have no indications that he has attitude problems. So, I see no reason to shop Hintz for a hard to identify player who you have yet to name, because, well, fans never do.

By this logic, we should be trading Otter right now while his value is the highest, no?

 

[kabidjan18]

I greatly mind the notion of trading Hintz. He is an elite 2 way centerman. The likes of which are extremely hard to find, much less at his current rate. His defensive responsibility allows defensemen to jump up in the zone. And this past year he started producing offensively as well. He does get injured at unfortunate times and that has to be considered. But we will be anchored to the Benn, Seguin, and Suter contracts for another 3 years. Trading away your best forward because you're under the illusion that we're a one year rebuild away from contending is foolish. And even if we got the top draft pick, the track record of recent first picks does not suggest that the teams who get them, also get some immediate turnaround or move towards contending.

 

[hairylikebear]

By this logic, we should be trading Otter right now while his value is the highest, no?

No, the logic is that Hintz may be more likely than not to underperform his next contract. That doesn't apply to Otter at all.

 

[BG44]

Friedman/Marek also touched on the players:

Podcasts

Podcasts

podcast.sportsnet.ca

1) Future will be build around Otter, Heiskanen, Robertson, and Hintz (Marek)

2) Klingberg will not get the deal he wants (8 years), in Dallas.

3) Friedman again brought up Seattle with Klingberg.

4) Doesn't think Holtby or Radulov are here.

5) Gurianov's future could be tied to a new coach ... does that coach think he could use him/fix him.

6) Friedman thinks Dallas goes with a big deal now for Otter. They've had a plan and belief about him since drafting him in the 1st round. Thinks they should sign him for as long as they can.

7) Said the only logical move is to sign Robertson and Otter as long as they can.

 

[BfantZ]

I’d entertain the thought of trading hintz basically because he’s in his own window. Still a hard one to say ya for sure to.

 

[Kcb12345]

If Vegas hires Trotz, I wonder if there's a chance they circle back on Faksa

 

[hairylikebear]

If Vegas hires Trotz, I wonder if there's a chance they circle back on Faksa

Faksa has played below replacement level. He would need to demonstrate that he's useful before Vegas would consider adding him.

 

[LT]

Faksa has played below replacement level. He would need to demonstrate that he's useful before Vegas would consider adding him.

Faksa also is a coach's dream. Especially a coach like Trotz.

 

[Kipper 17]

The people that are arguing against trading Hintz need to stop oversimplifying the "trade Hintz" argument. Stop pretending it's simply "he won't be worth the entirety of his next contract" or "he gets injured". There are a lot of other factors that others have done a good job of explaining (so I am not going to bother reiterating what has been said). I'm not even sure how I feel about trading him but I understand the logic behind it.

 

[LT]

The people that are arguing against trading Hintz need to stop oversimplifying the "trade Hintz" argument. Stop pretending it's simply "he won't be worth the entirety of his next contract" or "he gets injured". There are a lot of other factors that others have done a good job of explaining (so I am not going to bother reiterating what has been said). I'm not even sure how I feel about trading him but I understand the logic behind it.

I still have yet to see one actual trade target from that contingent as well.

 

[eartotheground]

I still have yet to see one actual trade target from that contingent as well.

i think first row nailed it on the target talk, although he's on the 'don't trade hintz' side. we have no idea who might be available. just like spezza and seguin came out of nowhere, who knows who might actually be on the block.

edit: there are reasons to explore moving a player that you don't feel comfortable with long term and you don't need to identify a target for those reasons to be valid.

 

[LT]

i think first row nailed it on the target talk, although he's on the 'don't trade hintz' side. we have no idea who might be available. just like spezza and seguin came out of nowhere, who knows who might actually be on the block.

OTB or not, still not a single suggestion.

 

[hairylikebear]

I still have yet to see one actual trade target from that contingent as well.

I think it's pretty simple to look at the Eriksson trade and see the parallels. Nobody here wanted to trade Eriksson, he was a fan favorite and a great player. But once we saw the trade we were all happy about it. It's possible the same situation could be available with Hintz.

Nobody knows who the true targets are. We don't have the means to ask the GMs. I could tell you Makar is a target, and you'd say that's unrealistic. I could give you a lesser target like Hronek and you would say he's not good enough.

There's no way for the conversation to make progress if we focus on that.

 

[LT]

The only reasonable targets I can come up with are Rasmus Andersson and Noah Dobson.

 

[starsfan86]

The only reasonable targets I can come up with are Rasmus Andersson and Noah Dobson.

I was so mad Islanders drafted Dobson right before our pick. We ended up with Dellandrea lol

 

[BG44]

The reality is the way Dallas is handling 29-year-old John Klingberg right now clearly gives some insight into how they'll view negotiations with Hintz. Friedman just mentioned it again. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn have made the team, and I take that to mean the owner, is shy about giving guys long deals that take them significantly into their 30s'.

Even if they ultimately sign Hintz who will be turning 27 years as his new contract kicks in, they'll have seriously considered not giving him the big contract.

What I don't understand is there is very little logic in trading him right now. The risk that he's worse next year is very low. In fact, I would say the opportunity for his value to rise next season is higher than the risk. I see a valid argument that he could get traded at some point, but I saw see very little reason at all to trade him this summer. He's still an RFA next year. His value will not be reduced in any way by waiting unless God forbid, he has a major injury.

I think you're getting hyperfocused on a question that is a year too soon. I think there's a very plausible scenario that plays out where Dallas acquires more information about Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz next year before making a commitment. We also have no idea what type of term Hintz is going to be looking for. Dallas doesn't tend to negotiate early with RFAs. I don't think they're even going to have major or serious contract talks with him this summer. I'd actually be fairly surprised if they did. I just don't really see Hintz's long-term future being decided this summer.

 

[kabidjan18]

I think the theory that "oh we want to suck because if we suck, we'll win the lottery and then we'll get an elite scoring forward and become good. So we can just throw away Hintz and Pavelski and Lindell because we want to suck for a year." Right now we stand already as a first round playoff team. The second round would constitute an improvement. Here are all the forward draft picks since 2016. Let's isolate two variables. Guys who are top 6 forwards. And who've made the second round of the playoffs.

6 seasons since draft
Auston Matthews - never made it out of the first round
Patrik Laine - made it to round 3 once, on the second line. Eventually traded by his drafting team.
Pierre Luc Dubois - made the second round once in 2019.
Jesse Puljujarvi - made his first second round as a 3rd liner this year.
5 years since draft
Nico Hischier - never made it past the first round
Nolan Patrick - hasn't gotten his career started yet due to injury...it goes without saying that he's never made it past the first round
Elias Petterson - made it to the third round once.
4 years since draft
Andrei Svechnikov - made the second round 3 times, hasn't yet made it to the third round.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi - bottom 6 forward in every team he's on
Brady Tkachuk - never made the playoffs
Barrett Hayton - never made the playoffs
3. years since draft
Jack Hughes - never made the playoffs
Kaapo Kakko - just made the second round this year for the first time, as a 3rd line winger
Kirby Dach - first year playoffs as a bottom 6 guy, no playoffs in the last 2 years
Alex Turcotte - not yet in the NHL
2 years since draft
Alexis Lafreniere - 3rd liner on a team that just made the playoffs
Quinton Byfield - bottom 6 forward on a team eliminated in the first round
Tim Stutzle - never made the playoffs
Lucas Raymond - never made the playoffs
1 year since draft
Matty Beniers - not in the playoffs/10 NHL games
Mason McTavish - not in the playoffs/9 NHL games
Kent Johnson - not in the NHL/9 NHL games

So I'd say give up the idea of "let's blow such big structural holes in our club by trading Hintz and Lindell that we will guarantee ourselves a top 5 pick! Then we'll draft an elite forward and start winning." That's not what actually happens if we look at history. Teams that have huge structural holes such that they get top picks don't just suck just "one year", draft a forward who can play right away, then start winning. It's not "oh let's survive one tough year." When you commit to being bad, you will be bad for a very long time. Not one of the forwards drafted in the top 5 in the last 7 years has ever even won a conference final. Much less a Stanley Cup.

This theory of the Top 5 forward pick who would lead his team in his first year after being drafted to being a contender, to call it a fairy tale is generous.

And maybe some teams can get around that with free agency, like the Rangers signing Artemi Panarin, who is a real star and carrying bottom 6 former top 2 draft picks into the second round. But the Stars have 23m locked up in Benn, Suter and Seguin for the next 3 years. The team that signs Panarin for 11.5 million AAV and Jacob Trouba for 8 million AAV isn't going to be us.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I still have yet to see one actual trade target from that contingent as well.

Actually, there was a real one Nill turned down before Hintz was as good as he is now.....Hintz as the main piece to acquire Erik Karllsson as a D. Nill knew what he had, and tried to fleece Ottowa (again) by offering Honka. Even that GM knew the relative value of players.

We are pretty glad he had the vision to Not trade Rope then, I hope he does now. And, TBH, I think the biggest chance of Rope getting traded is as part of a new GM's first blockbuster, rather than with Nill at the reins.

I think of paying young stars in their prime sort of like paying taxes. I hate overpaying, but in reality, it is a privilege to be paying your own home grown draft picks like that.

 

[BG44]

I think it's pretty simple to look at the Eriksson trade and see the parallels. Nobody here wanted to trade Eriksson, he was a fan favorite and a great player. But once we saw the trade we were all happy about it. It's possible the same situation could be available with Hintz.

Nobody knows who the true targets are. We don't have the means to ask the GMs. I could tell you Makar is a target, and you'd say that's unrealistic. I could give you a lesser target like Hronek and you would say he's not good enough.

There's no way for the conversation to make progress if we focus on that.

That's a cop-out. They're more reasonable conversations though than we should trade a guy for a #1 or #2 defender. Even the Seguin example would have been something you could actually talk about. Yes, people would find it hard to believe (back before that trade) that he'd be available, but they'd also be able to see similar values in Eriksson for Seguin or debate that merit. Makar is a cop-out as well though because it's like saying let's go trade for Connor McDavid.

 

[Starry Knight]

I think you're assuming people want to trade Hintz just for the sake of it, but the vibe I get is people are expressing an openness to the idea of trading him, which is fine. For the right offer anyone is tradable. The long term concerns about Hintz are completely valid. IMO the odds that an offer for Hintz comes along that improves the way the team is positioned is unlikely. The same issues that cause fans to hesitate to commit are the ones that other GMs will use to justify low-ball offers.

Exactly. I am not saying that the Stars need to trade Hintz or are doomed for the future, I just want the Stars to actually plan for more than 1 year at a time. I see an organization that is extremely weak at defence and needs to address it if they want to contend. If Harley doesn't pan out (which he could very well top out as a bottom pairing defenceman), we could only have Heiskanen in 2-3 years as a top-4 D.

It doesn't necessarily have to be Hintz moved out either, I just think he's a tradeable player that could net an impact player.

Another option could be trying to strike gold with lower value options. LA has a logjam of RD and I'd be trying to push for a deal around Durzi for Gurianov.

 

[hairylikebear]

I think you're getting hyperfocused on a question that is a year too soon.

No, I couldn't disagree more with this. He's very likely to outperform his contract next year by a huge margin, barring injury. This upcoming year is what gives him greater value to other teams than to Dallas - given that Dallas is not in a position to sacrifice in order to contend, and that includes the sacrifice of opportunity. I understand that the Stars front office may differ and view them as an all-in type roster.

Trading him as an RFA makes no sense because no matter what, he is going to be paid for what he has produced, which is a lot. It's still possible someone overpays, but this offseason is the prime time to get the max return from Hintz and avoid the risk of committing to him when the window can only ever be half open for the next few years given the current cap situation. He'll be good when the team is bad and could be bad when the team is ready to be good.

All this is contingent on there existing some hypothetical 'untouchable' caliber piece being offered in return. If that's not out there, Hintz stays.

That's a cop-out. They're more reasonable conversations though than we should trade a guy for a #1 or #2 defender. Even the Seguin example would have been something you could actually talk about. Yes, people would find it hard to believe (back before that trade) that he'd be available, but they'd also be able to see similar values in Eriksson for Seguin or debate that merit. Makar is a cop-out as well though because it's like saying let's go trade for Connor McDavid.

It's asking us to produce evidence we cannot produce. If you're hung up on Makar, I can name you any top tier RHD in the league and you and I would never be able to say for sure that they are or are not an option.

Makar is viable, by the way. Not right this moment, but there does exist a set of circumstances that makes Makar available this offseason. Let's say MacKinnon decides he just doesn't want to play with this Makar kid anymore, like Lemieux and Zubov.

Unlikely, yes. Neither of us are in a position to say this can't happen.

 

[Rompane]

What Johnston has done as a draft +1 doesn't have many comparables. You could maybe point to Morgan Frost, but he's an undersized centre who's fairly one dimensional.

The best recent comparable for Wyatt Johnston's season that aligns with his play on both sides of the puck as a D+1 is Mitch Marner.

Marco Rossi had even before his draft better goal and point per game in OHL than Johnston and still has not got place in the NHL. Also on the junior national teams Johnston really does not have done anything big and still has not played in u20 team. Im not saying he is not going to be great player but sometimes it can be hard to move to NHL level from juniors and nothing is sure. Maybe when guy is Mcdavid/Matthews/Bedard? level.

 

[LT]

Marco Rossi had even before his draft better goal and point per game in OHL than Johnston and still has not got place in the NHL. Also on the junior national teams Johnston really does not have done anything big and still has not played in u20 team. Im not saying he is not going to be great player but sometimes it can be hard to move to NHL level from juniors and nothing is sure.

Marco Rossi is an awful comparison. He has extreme extenuating circumstances that have (temporarily) derailed his career. He lost an entire year of development and physical growth.

He’s also considerably smaller and weaker than Johnston.

 

[Rompane]

Marco Rossi is an awful comparison. He has extreme extenuating circumstances that have (temporarily) derailed his career.

He’s also considerably smaller and weaker than Johnston.

Just first name out of mind. I think there is lot of draft+1 guys that has had similar impact in junior leagues and has not really made it in NHL.