2022 Draft Thread - July 7-8 (CBJ to pick 6th (via CHI) and 12th overall)

[EspenK]

10 Potential Steals

Written by Mark Scheig

 

[Youngguns80]

Google Podcasts

podcasts.google.com

17 minute discussion with Mark Edwards - Hockey Prospect (BlackBook) good listen and some insight into the draft.

 

[Cowumbus]

View attachment 564744

You can even do a 2023 draft if you want with their very preliminary list.

Traded 12OA for 15OA+80OA because one of Mateychuk and Mintyukov were probably going to be available.

(6) Cutter Gauthier, C
(15) Denton Mateychuk, LD
(44) Jagger Firkus, C (steal)
(80) Cruz Lucius, RW
(96) Mathew Ward, C
(109) Jack Devine, RW
(203) Cole Spicer, C

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Traded 12OA for 15OA+80OA because one of Mateychuk and Mintyukov were probably going to be available.

(6) Cutter Gauthier, C
(15) Denton Mateychuk, LD
(44) Jagger Firkus, C
(80) Cruz Lucius, RW
(96) Mathew Ward, C
(109) Jack Devine, RW
(203) Cole Spicer, C

Jagger Firkus and Cruz Lucius are two damned awesome names.

 

[VT]

im not worried about lost development time. Wright lost a year and a closer to home example is Tarasov. Id be concerned to draft him because of what Russia just did to Fedotov. Do you even get to see these kids anymore or has Russia finally snapped and threatening these kids to stay

It seems that in Fedotov's case it was because of the falsification of military cards for players on the soccer and hockey teams in Ufa by a former employee of the Main Directorate for Traffic Safety. At that time Fedotov was in the club system. Btw, this is the first example. I wonder how in the case of Tarasov, he was also in the system. Although it is a fact that he went to Finland for a while.

 

[Cowumbus]

What would we need to add onto pick 44 to get into the low 30s for Luca Del Bel Belluz or David Goyette (assuming we take D+F with the first two picks)

Jagger Firkus and Cruz Lucius are two damned awesome names.

You didn’t ask, but Cruz Lucius is being slept on. If he didn’t have the injury last year people probably are talking about him in the first two rounds.

 

[majormajor]

Because the others included Miroshnichenko I assume you don't see upside because of his illness and lack of playing time? The kid was a contender for the pre-season #1 OA.

I don't really know. I've barely seen him play and when I did I wasn't that enamored. Last year he looked like a Tarasenko type stylistically but I didn't see quite that level of talent.

 

[majormajor]

What would we need to add onto pick 44 to get into the low 30s for Luca Del Bel Belluz or David Goyette (assuming we take D+F with the first two picks)

I like both of those players but probably would try to sit tight and hope they make it to #44. Neither is ranked super high on Bob's list, so their warts might be just enough to keep them unclaimed. And we might even see Firkus or Beck slip, which would be even better.

 

[majormajor]

There are some very talented Russians that I hope we can nab. There's the comically large Dolzhenkov, who has skill and would make Voronkov look small. And Buchelnikov, who looks like he has elite Panarinesque skill. I didn't watch Perevalov or Koromyslov but they are also well liked and there are a few others like that. There might be a steal there around pick 96.

 

[Hello Johnny]

Honestly this could still change between now and Thursday but I feel alright about it. Anyway, here are my rankings right now:

1. Cooley
2. Wright
3. Slafkovsky
4. Jiricek
5. Mintyukov
6. Gauthier
7. Mateychuk
8. Savoie
9. Nemec
10. Nazar
11. Kasper
12. Ostlund
13. Ohgren
14. Lambert
15. Miroshnichenko
16. Lekkerimaki
17. Bichsel
18. Howard
19. Kemell
20. Yurov
21. Geekie
22. Korchinski
23. Beck
24. Kulich
25. Mesar
26. Snuggerud
27. Firkus
28. Hutson
29. McGroarty
30. Pickering
31. Trikozov
32. Chesley

HM: Goyette, Sykora, Zhilkin

– When making this list, I tried to hybridize my opinions with what professionals are saying. For instance, I'm not particularly higher on Slafkovsky than I am, say, Mintyukov or Jiricek. But I do see the massive potential in Slafkovsky and while I believe the draft overvalues size and tournament performances, it's hard for me to justify ranking anyone else at 3. I'll yield to the experts, but he's not in my top 2 like many in the industry.

– Few professionals are ranking Cooley at #1. I don't care, I think he's a safe player to pick with a massive ceiling. He's pretty easily my top pick.

– Those top 12 are my favorites and I'd prefer to come away with 2 of them.

– The next 10 players (13-22) could really be in any order. Pretty razor-thin margins there.

– I know I'm lower on Korchinski and Geekie than many, hence why I've ranked them at the bottom of this 10 player tier, but I do see the potential. To me Korchinski plays a really flashy and exciting game, but I hesitate to think will translate into higher levels. If he can polish his speed out of his famous cutbacks then I'd feel better about him. The cutbacks work in juniors but he's really sloppy coming out of his turns and NHL forecheckers won't be fooled and will close in on him if he doesn't clean it up. If he can fix some issues, he does have nice potential and I am positive someone in the top 10-15 will take him. Maybe even us.

– In general, I really like the NHL potential of a lot of players in this draft, and feel we will come away with some really good prospects. Even at 44 I think we'll get a good player. There might not be any superstars, but there are a lot of very projectable players.

– As always this is just for fun and mostly useful for a laugh in a few years. I don't take myself that seriously so feel free to comment

 

[LJ7]

There are some very talented Russians that I hope we can nab. There's the comically large Dolzhenkov, who has skill and would make Voronkov look small. And Buchelnikov, who looks like he has elite Panarinesque skill. I didn't watch Perevalov or Koromyslov but they are also well liked and there are a few others like that. There might be a steal there around pick 96.

Could be the next Russian 23 year old Calder winner. One of my favorite highlight reels of anyone in this class.

 

[LJ7]

Honestly this could still change between now and Thursday but I feel alright about it. Anyway, here are my rankings right now:

1. Cooley
2. Wright
3. Slafkovsky
4. Jiricek
5. Mintyukov
6. Gauthier
7. Mateychuk
8. Savoie
9. Nemec
10. Nazar
11. Kasper
12. Ostlund
13. Ohgren
14. Lambert
15. Miroshnichenko
16. Lekkerimaki
17. Bichsel
18. Howard
19. Kemell
20. Yurov
21. Geekie
22. Korchinski
23. Beck
24. Kulich
25. Mesar
26. Snuggerud
27. Firkus
28. Hutson
29. McGroarty
30. Pickering
31. Trikozov
32. Chesley

HM: Goyette, Sykora, Zhilkin

– When making this list, I tried to hybridize my opinions with what professionals are saying. For instance, I'm not particularly higher on Slafkovsky than I am, say, Mintyukov or Jiricek. But I do see the massive potential in Slafkovsky and while I believe the draft overvalues size and tournament performances, it's hard for me to justify ranking anyone else at 3. I'll yield to the experts, but he's not in my top 2 like many in the industry.

– Few professionals are ranking Cooley at #1. I don't care, I think he's a safe player to pick with a massive ceiling. He's pretty easily my top pick.

– Those top 12 are my favorites and I'd prefer to come away with 2 of them.

– The next 10 players (13-22) could really be in any order. Pretty razor-thin margins there.

– I know I'm lower on Korchinski and Geekie than many, hence why I've ranked them at the bottom of this 10 player tier, but I do see the potential. To me Korchinski plays a really flashy and exciting game, but I hesitate to think will translate into higher levels. If he can polish his speed out of his famous cutbacks then I'd feel better about him. The cutbacks work in juniors but he's really sloppy coming out of his turns and NHL forecheckers won't be fooled and will close in on him if he doesn't clean it up. If he can fix some issues, he does have nice potential and I am positive someone in the top 10-15 will take him. Maybe even us.

– In general, I really like the NHL potential of a lot of players in this draft, and feel we will come away with some really good prospects. Even at 44 I think we'll get a good player. There might not be any superstars, but there are a lot of very projectable players.

– As always this is just for fun and mostly useful for a laugh in a few years. I don't take myself that seriously so feel free to comment

I like this list. No fun in discussing all the stuff we agree on though so can you explain Savoie over Nazar? I had Nazar 7 and Savoie like 15 but I've felt I may have ended up a bit too low on Savoie. He was higher for me before and I do like his skill and speed. I still see him as a nice complimentary offensive winger with energy but do you think he could become more than that?

 

[Hello Johnny]

I like this list. No fun in discussing all the stuff we agree on though so can you explain Savoie over Nazar? I had Nazar 7 and Savoie like 15 but I've felt I may have ended up a bit too low on Savoie. He was higher for me before and I do like his skill and speed. I still see him as a nice complimentary offensive winger with energy but do you think he could become more than that?

Quite frankly Savoie is just a player I have a huge crush on. I see an elite skater and a player who can beat you in a multitude of ways, and I really don't see many deficiencies in his game. I also like his competitiveness. I think he has PPG+ potential even if it's not the most likely scenario. I had him as low as 16 at one point, but I just can't help but keep him higher up.

As for Nazar, he's another player I really like. Like the players I have 13-22, I think the guys I listed 7-12 could also be in basically any order. Nazar was as high as 7 for me at one point. He's another player with few deficiencies. Gun to my head, I just think Savoie pops off the page a little more. But the two are an interesting comparison.

 

[Hello Johnny]

@LJ7

Damn I didn't realize just how close our rankings are haha. We have 31/32 of the same players and a ton of guys ranked within a few spots of each other.

 

[VT]

There are some very talented Russians that I hope we can nab. There's the comically large Dolzhenkov, who has skill and would make Voronkov look small. And Buchelnikov, who looks like he has elite Panarinesque skill. I didn't watch Perevalov or Koromyslov but they are also well liked and there are a few others like that. There might be a steal there around pick 96.

You have to realize one thing. MHL is very weak. The junior leagues of Sweden and Finland are much better. So I'd be careful in player appreciation.

 

[majormajor]

You have to realize one thing. MHL is very weak. The junior leagues of Sweden and Finland are much better. So I'd be careful in player appreciation.

Yeah the statlines don't mean much to me. I'm mostly trying to evaluate talent (in a rudimentary way).

 

[tunnelvision]

I had Nazar 7 and Savoie like 15 but I've felt I may have ended up a bit too low on Savoie. He was higher for me before and I do like his skill and speed. I still see him as a nice complimentary offensive winger with energy but do you think he could become more than that?

Quite frankly Savoie is just a player I have a huge crush on. I see an elite skater and a player who can beat you in a multitude of ways, and I really don't see many deficiencies in his game. I also like his competitiveness. I think he has PPG+ potential even if it's not the most likely scenario. I had him as low as 16 at one point, but I just can't help but keep him higher up.

This was one of the better games I saw from Savoie in the WHL playoffs. Some good rushes, passes, shots and forechecking - but also fair amount of uninspiring puck decisions from a highly touted F prospect for my liking. Seeing performances like this led me to think he could be a effective top-6 forward at NHL level, but only with right kind of linemates who can compensate for Savoie's deficiencies and when he's in more of a supportive role. I don't think he has "it" to be the playdriver of his line.



There are also recent shift-by-shift uploads of Lekkerimaki, Kemell, Kasper and Mateychuk on that same youtube channel.

 

[Hello Johnny]

This was one of the better games I saw from Savoie in the WHL playoffs. Some good rushes, passes, shots and forechecking - but also fair amount of uninspiring puck decisions from a highly touted F prospect for my liking. Seeing performances like this led me to think he could be a effective top-6 forward at NHL level, but only with right kind of linemates who can compensate for Savoie's deficiencies and when he's in more of a supportive role. I don't think he has "it" to be the playdriver of his line.



There are also recent shift-by-shift uploads of Lekkerimaki, Kemell, Kasper and Mateychuk on that same youtube channel.

I definitely appreciate your point of view on Savoie. By no means is he perfect, and I concede that maybe I'm too I love with his tools that it fluffs up my expectations for him.

It's mostly a gut feeling. Same gut feeling I've had with players such as Kyle Connor, Robert Thomas, Josh Norris, Seth Jarvis, and last year, Matthew Coronato and Xavier Bourgault. Just have/had a good feeling.

 

[LJ7]

@LJ7

Damn I didn't realize just how close our rankings are haha. We have 31/32 of the same players and a ton of guys ranked within a few spots of each other.

Yeah it's wild especially when you consider how this draft has such little consensus. Even beyond us two we did kinda end up with a strange little echo chamber on this board If Mintyukov and Mateychuk don't end up as good players then we'll look pretty stupid

My theory is that a handful of us here that have followed this draft class ended up consuming and respecting the voices a few of the same public content sphere scouts/draft analysts. For me it was the Elite Prospects crew and Dylan Travers mostly with Chris Peters, Brad Allen and hockeyprospect's list. I imagine we all had a lot of crossover because we'd share our sources then consider those sources which was a stronger appeal than fellow message board hobbyists dropping their own takes.

It has been very fun discussing this draft on this board though. The blend of respect, seriousness, and humility exhibited here made for some great exchanges especially for online fan forum standards.

 

[Hello Johnny]

Yeah it's wild especially when you consider how this draft has such little consensus. Even beyond us two we did kinda end up with a strange little echo chamber on this board If Mintyukov and Mateychuk don't end up as good players then we'll look pretty stupid

My theory is that a handful of us here that have followed this draft class ended up consuming and respecting the voices a few of the same public content sphere scouts/draft analysts. For me it was the Elite Prospects crew and Dylan Travers mostly with Chris Peters, Brad Allen and hockeyprospect's list. I imagine we all had a lot of crossover because we'd share our sources then consider those sources which was a stronger appeal than fellow message board hobbyists dropping their own takes.

It has been very fun discussing this draft on this board though. The blend of respect, seriousness, and humility exhibited here made for some great exchanges especially for online fan forum standards.

Yeah, agreed. I think the fact that everyone here has been so thorough and unpretentious makes it easy to come to agreement.

But I think there's a nice amount of variance. I think you and others are perfectly reasonable to have Savoie ranked where you do, for example.

All in all, it's nice that no one is stirring the pot for the sake of it. It's hard to rank this draft because there are so many guys that could be in the same tiers, so I like that everyone has been hearing each other out and taking consideration of all opinions.

10/10 best draft thread I've participated in during my 15 years here.

 

[LJ7]

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Help me understand what I’m seeing. Is it weighted based on draft position? Because it’s easier to outperform your draft position if you were drafted lower.

 

[VT]

Yeah the statlines don't mean much to me. I'm mostly trying to evaluate talent (in a rudimentary way).

I understand. But there are often not very good defensemen in MHL, and not the fact that he could do it in Sweden and Finland. Besides, there are often big differences between teams.
Btw, the same applies in part to the young Europeans playing in WC. I think that most of the players who should be selected in the 1th round woul play very well in, for example, our national team, many of them could be leaders. But they don't play, so the scouts may have skewed information.

 

[stevo61]

Help me understand what I’m seeing. Is it weighted based on draft position? Because it’s easier to outperform your draft position if you were drafted lower.

And to piggyback off this comment, what does that chart look like in the playoffs vs regular season. Small players like Gaudreau and Marner for example have been slammed for years for racking up points in the regular season and then having much less of an impact in the playoffs

 

[majormajor]

I understand. But there are often not very good defensemen in MHL, and not the fact that he could do it in Sweden and Finland. Besides, there are often big differences between teams.

For sure, but if Buchelnikov walks an MHL defender better than a Canadian kid walks a pylon, then I feel comfortable assessing his talent level.

Btw, the same applies in part to the young Europeans playing in WC. I think that most of the players who should be selected in the 1th round woul play very well in, for example, our national team, many of them could be leaders. But they don't play, so the scouts may have skewed information.

A lot of prospects could have gotten big minutes for Slovakia. That might have some relevance with Nemec. What was special with Slafkovsky was that he took those minutes and then carried the team against NHL level defenders. Who does that?