Update on Jarmo's mindset regarding the draft:
Who have been the Jackets' five best and worst recent draft picks? Is Columbus likely to trade up this year?
theathletic.com
Sounds like he's got his eye on a player that he thinks will still be there at pick #6.
My big guess for the draft: I think David Jiricek falls. past #7. My reasoning for this is that while he's a big bodied RHD who is a decent skater, his ceiling may not be as high as you would want with a top pick. Seems more like a Marc Methot or an Eric Gudbranson who, while solid, isn't top-5 worthy.
So we know that at least one of the presumptive top 6 is not in Jarmo's top tier of 4 or 5 players.
He also probably doesn't have any consensus top 15 player from outside that top 6 in his top tier (not like I have Mintyukov), or he would just take them at #6. There is a possibility that he has a player from much lower on consensus lists (like Ostlund, Firkus, etc..) ranked very high, and that's why he is talking about maybe trading down from 6.
Most likely Jarmo has a top tier that includes 4 or 5 of the presumptive top 6, and then there is a deeper tier after that where they expect they could get guys they really like maybe even late in the round. For example, in the simulator, I traded 6 for 10+22, and took Mintyukov at 10, Ostlund at 12, and Mateychuk at 22.
Good. although moving up for Wright if he slips to 2 is tempting, I think the smart choice is to stand pat and see what falls to you. Is there really that big of a difference between Cooley and Gauthier? Clearly, Cooley is the better prospect,but is it enough to sacrifice a Nazar, Mintyukov, Kochinski, Lekkerimakki, Kemmel etc? I don't think so.
My preference at 6 is still Nemec or Jiricek, but I am perfectly OK with Gauthier if that's not possible.
You can ask the same thing about Wright and Gauthier, or at least I can ask it. Personally if you ask me now, I expect Gauthier to have the better career but Wright has a chance to overcome his challenges and become an elite player. I would pick Wright but it's not an easy question for me.
I wouldnt be surprised if Gauthier is Jarmo's guy and I also wouldnt be surprised if he misses out on him again. Im pumped for Johnson but part of me believes McTavish was the pick last year before Anaheim kind of surprised everyone.
If Gauthier is gone and there is even an ounce of truth to the Jiricek take Id have absolutely 0 idea of what to expect with that pick
I've been saying since the lottery that Gauthier screams Jarmo's guy.
And it's already been reported at least once that McTavish was Jarmo's guy last year, higher on the list than KJ. Sorry, I don't remember where that was reported.
Jiricek is 6'3 190? Kid is going to play in the NHL within two years for sure at that size.
Seider and Makar took two years after the draft to develop and that seems appropriate for Jiricek too. But then again I'm the bozo that would send Sillinger down.
So yeah, I've pretty much made up my mind that I want a center/blueliner combo. If that ends up being Jiricek/Nazar (OMG PLS), or Gauther/Mintyukov (enh, okay), or Cooley/Matcheyuk (shiny), or Nemec/Savoie (enh sure), or whatever, pretty much any way it works I'm okay. I have preferences but I don't have enough info about the other possibilities for those preferences to be usefully informed ones, so, whatever.
That's the sort of thing that I don't think matters in the long view. Like if we look back five years from now, are we going to care that we took FF in one draft and then DD in the next and then FF again? Or if it was DF + DF + DF? It doesn't matter to me, I just take the players as they come.
