Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Green Snow Storm]

I’m all for trading back a few spots and obtaining another 2nd as well.

 

[HC7]

If 3 of Miller, Merkley, Wise, Dellandrea, Berggren are on the board you can take your chances trading back. I'd personally trade Gardiner + Brown + Carrick etc for a decent pick or RHD prospect

 

[firstemperor]

If the Leafs were picking, I'd probably take Kotkaniemi and perhaps Dobson ahead of Zadina. Been mulling about my rankings for a while and every year, there's always one major change at the top of my board (last year being when I subbed Nico over Nolan a few weeks prior to the draft....2016 when I dropped Juolevi out of my top 10, etc.).

Multiple teams hold multiple late first/second round picks. This is why I think the Leafs will trade down.

Options I'd look at:

- trade down from #25 to #30 with Detroit and pick up one of their early 2nd's (#33 or #36)
- trade down from #25 to #35 with Montreal and pick up two of their 2nd's (#38 and one of #56/#62)
- trade down from #25 to #28 with the Rangers and pick up their earlier 2nd (#39)

Basically the idea would be to try get an extra pick in the 30th-40th OA range via trading down. That would be my goal.

Hopefully that can occur if all goes well but frankly, this isn't the type of the draft to be trading up into the mid 20's IMO.

 

[kk87]

Multiple teams hold multiple late first/second round picks. This is why I think the Leafs will trade down.

Options I'd look at:

- trade down from #25 to #30 with Detroit and pick up one of their early 2nd's (#33 or #36)
- trade down from #25 to #35 with Montreal and pick up two of their 2nd's (#38 and one of #56/#62)
- trade down from #25 to #28 with the Rangers and pick up their earlier 2nd (#39)

Basically the idea would be to try get an extra pick in the 30th-40th OA range via trading down. That would be my goal.

These aren’t really equitable trades in terms of pick value. In 2015 we traded 24 for 29 and 61 so we would probably be looking at something similar. 25 for a package of 36 + 39 or 35 + 38 might be plausible if Detroit or Montreal see a player they like at 25.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I would even consider using #52 in a deal such as

25
52

For

28
39

Reason being, I think the difference between 25 and 28 is very small. But imo 39 to 52 there is a difference.

To me it feels like each year you have your surprise players ranked in the 20s who fall to the 2nd round. But they are usually scooped up by 50. At 28 and 39 we could theoritically get 2 1st rounders if things play out nicely, but by 52 the player is most likely to be what they should be at 52, a 2nd rounder.

 

[Martin Skoula]

These aren’t really equitable trades in terms of pick value. In 2015 we traded 24 for 29 and 61 so we would probably be looking at something similar. 25 for a package of 36 + 39 or 35 + 38 might be plausible if Detroit or Montreal see a player they like at 25.

To be fair we also traded 30+39 for 22 under Burke.

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Never trade up.

Draft Jonatan Berggren, Vitali Kravtsov, Grigori Denisenko or trade down.

 

[Kiwi]

We're picking 7 times with picks in the 1st 2nd and 3rd rounds and have a pool full of depth players we don't need to trade down

Pick the BPA at #25 and if we've got a burning desire to pick multiple times in the 2nd round stop trading the bloody things for 4th line Centers at the TDL instead

 

[Judas Tavares]

We're picking 7 times with picks in the 1st 2nd and 3rd rounds and have a pool full of depth players we don't need to trade down

Pick the BPA at #25 and if we've got a burning desire to pick multiple times in the 2nd round stop trading the bloody things for 4th line Centers at the TDL instead

I wouldn't say the depth is full. Its good but could use far more at centre and some more on the blue line. I certainly agree we are loaded up on wingers and I'm fine with Woll and Scott for goalie depth (drafting 1 every 2 years in combo with potential signings is more than enough at G).

But Gauthier, Aaltonen, Brooks and Lindholm just does not cut it, even with Matthews and Kadri at the NHL level.

At D, I understood the fridge approach, but they went a little overboard, I guess with the hope that at least 1 or 2 would pan out. I think we could use some more 2-way defenders in the system.

 

[Leaf Lander]

trade gardiner to edm for their top 10 pick this yr and a 2nd rnd pick next yr

 

[Kiwi]

I wouldn't say the depth is full. Its good but could use far more at centre and some more on the blue line. I certainly agree we are loaded up on wingers and I'm fine with Woll and Scott for goalie depth (drafting 1 every 2 years in combo with potential signings is more than enough at G).

But Gauthier, Aaltonen, Brooks and Lindholm just does not cut it, even with Matthews and Kadri at the NHL level.

At D, I understood the fridge approach, but they went a little overboard, I guess with the hope that at least 1 or 2 would pan out. I think we could use some more 2-way defenders in the system.

I can't say I particularly like the Centers in our range it looks like a winger or defenseman type situation

I think we've got depth what we need is to try to add another upper tier type talent to the pool and if we can get a Miller Denisenko or Berggern at #25 there's no way I'd trade down

I could understand the thinking behind drafting all those Moose's but it's looking like a lot of wasted picks right now (Gordeev looks interesting) so I wouldn't mind a change of strategy on that one

 

[hamzarocks]

Havent been as excited for a draft+f/a since the 15 offseason. We sent have high picks but I want to see dubas make moves and see how the league shakes out with some big name f/a potentially on market. Cant wait till friday

 

[67Cup]

There is a useful article on Pension Plan Puppets about trading picks.
What pick trades could the Leafs actually make?

The relative value of picks is much more established than in the past, the article claims. Basically, two early seconds are normally more valuable than a late first, such as 25. The Leafs aren’t likely to get two early seconds for 25 unless someone (Detroit or the Habs) is so eager for a particular player that they are willing to clearly overpay. As Burke was back in 2011!

What isn’t addressed is whether it would work to trade 25 plus a later pick, like the San Jose third rounder, for two early second round picks.

 

[Judas Tavares]

There is a useful article on Pension Plan Puppets about trading picks.
What pick trades could the Leafs actually make?

The relative value of picks is much more established than in the past, the article claims. Basically, two early seconds are normally more valuable than a late first, such as 25. The Leafs aren’t likely to get two early seconds for 25 unless someone (Detroit or the Habs) is so eager for a particular player that they are willing to clearly overpay. As Burke was back in 2011!

What isn’t addressed is whether it would work to trade 25 plus a later pick, like the San Jose third rounder, for two early second round picks.

I'm a fan of this article. I truly believe these valuations/models have some merit and Dubas might buy into these as well.

Where we are in the draft, if someone in the upper tiers falls to us, then yes we take them. But will they fall? And how many players are in this tier? Really we have no idea unless Dubas and the staff's list leaks to us. I see 17 players who I would quantify as "if they are at 25, you take them no questions asked."

Dahlin, Svech, Zadina, Dobson, Bouchard, Hughes, Kotkaniemi, Wahlstrom, Tkachuk, Boqvist, Smith, Kravtsov, Farabee, Hayton, Veleno, Denisenko, Kupari. If any of those guys are at 25, you take them. Will one of them be there? Maybe Denisenko cause of the Russian factor, or Kupari. Otherwise I don't think there is a shot. Now this list is obviously just my opinion, others may have more/less players, the only one's whose matter is Dubas'.

But after those 17, the next tier is full of players who I would call "in our range", even if, well, we can't get one because they get taken 18th. I would still consider these guys in our range. Lundestrom, Breggren, Thomas, Kaut, Bokk, Noel, Wise, Dellandrea, Miller, Samuelsson, Merkley, Sandin, Addison, McIsaac, Wilde, McLeod, Lundqvist, Tychonik, Olofsson.

I just listed 19 players who you could classify as "in our range". Would it be a surprise if any of those 19 went 18th overall? Yes, some more than others, but as a whole I don't think it's out the realm for any of those 19 to go 18th. With that said, if each of these 19 players went in order from 18, well the last one would go 36th. If these players are created equal enough as a tier on Dubas' list, why not trade down, still get one and pick up another asset?

Again this is just my take on it, but where we are positioned and the way this draft is, it seems like a good idea.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

There is a useful article on Pension Plan Puppets about trading picks.
What pick trades could the Leafs actually make?

The relative value of picks is much more established than in the past, the article claims. Basically, two early seconds are normally more valuable than a late first, such as 25. The Leafs aren’t likely to get two early seconds for 25 unless someone (Detroit or the Habs) is so eager for a particular player that they are willing to clearly overpay. As Burke was back in 2011!

What isn’t addressed is whether it would work to trade 25 plus a later pick, like the San Jose third rounder, for two early second round picks.

Most likely the Leafs will have to settle for two late 2nd/early 3rd round picks to go back around 10 spots, and then can use any combination of 52,83 and those two new picks to move up again.

Or just do 25+52 right away.

 

[Kiwi]

I think people are overestimating the value of what we got trading down in 2015 which was one of the best drafts in recent memory

#24 for #34+#61+#68

There's going to be a quality difference between #25 and #35ish and the late 2nd early 3rd isn't that exciting when I look at what's likely to be available

The talk of 2 high 30's picks for #25 seems a little presumptuous since it's predicated on a GM doing something moronic, they have before but I'll believe it when I see it

 

[Mikeyg]

Ole mikeyg wants to draft breggren!

 

[member 300185]

The sleeper here is Veleno. Anyone think there is a chance he slips to us? He was the first person from Quebec that was granted exceptional status. He may go top 10 but he would be a dream to get at 24. The guy is the next Tavares. 6'1 and almost 200 pound workhorse with skill. Some said he skates like Crosby and shoots like Ovechkin. I have only seen his highlights, but holy hell is he good. I believe firmly that in 5 years people will look back at this draft the and he was the steal for whoever gets him.

That said, I hope Dubas pulls something off to get him.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The sleeper here is Veleno. Anyone think there is a chance he slips to us? He was the first person from Quebec that was granted exceptional status. He may go top 10 but he would be a dream to get at 24. The guy is the next Tavares. 6'1 and almost 200 pound workhorse with skill. Some said he skates like Crosby and shoots like Ovechkin. I have only seen his highlights, but holy hell is he good. I believe firmly that in 5 years people will look back at this draft the and he was the steal for whoever gets him.

That said, I hope Dubas pulls something off to get him.

He's probably the 2nd best center in a draft that lacks centers. Even if he didn't deserve to go high he likely gets taken by a team that really wants a center. As much as teams preach BPA someone will reach for a center. And I don't think Veleno is a reach in the low teens anyway.

I'm expecting the Isles to take him at 11 or 12.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Ole mikeyg wants to draft breggren!

Yikes, I agree with Mikeyg! There's a first time for everything.

 

[Mikeyg]

Yikes, I agree with Mikeyg! There's a first time for everything.

New phone, who dis?

 

[67Cup]

Veleno might indeed slip. I’ve seen several recent rankings in which he has slipped into the Leafs’ range. And the Black Book, one of the most respected of all the services, drops him to 37!

 

[LeafChief]

If Veleno slips to 25, is he the obvious pick?

 

[AppsSyl]

If Veleno slips to 25, is he the obvious pick?

He would be for me.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

If Veleno slips to 25, is he the obvious pick?

Meh, he's like a slightly better McLeod for me. I don't like his offensive instincts, and his tools are better than his skills imo.