Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft - Shall We Begin?

[BigToe]

 

[Magua]

I've soured a bit on Noel, and would take him in the early 2nd round, but I'd rather not spend a mid-1st on him.

Yeah, I have no interest in Serron Noel at either of our likely picks. He's not uninteresting, but more in the range you described, as a toolsy, risky 1st/2nd round tweener. I’m not someone who goes gaga over big project forwards. I think deficiencies can be ignored or lazily called “rawness.” But I do see the upside and rawness of Noel where he’s worth a risk long-term.......at a certain point. One of the youngest in the draft too with his August b-day.

They don't get more toolsy than him at 6'5, 200+lbs and athletic as hell. As smooth a skater as Ratcliffe is, Noel might be smoother and faster in stride. And what sticks out most is how soft his hands are with the puck. A lot of big forwards struggle with puck feel. His ability to stickhandle himself out of trouble in tight, combined with his feet, is a scary skill-set. But he's a kid who can't bring it together consistently. I've seen shifts from him that are jaw-dropping. And way too many others where he borders on invisible.

My read at the Hlinka tournament was that I thought his hockey IQ was not ideal. But his reads on/off puck have been completely fine in my closer viewings for Oshawa. He’ll hold onto pucks through traffic, but he generally is trying to make plays and work space and is pretty successful at it, and he's not a bad passer (more pass first even). He’s good with the give and go's, not cheating on breakouts and supporting in the d-zone, making switches, reading off his linemates on the cycle, understanding spacing. He may be invisible offensively at times, but he's not mentally checked out or anything or his positioning out of whack. He can just be passive or reluctant. Shows up in the numbers.

Why? He's a perimeter player who doesn't use his size enough and often tries to finesse his way through. There's a lack of aggression or bite or even decisiveness on/off puck. He plays like someone who doesn't understand himself on the ice and how good he could be. I joked a while back that if you combined Ratcliffe and Noel, you'd get a Blake Wheeler-esque player. I don't think Ratcliffe has Noel's hands, but Isaac knows his game and has a much higher floor. Isaac drives the holy hell out of the net with a very advanced net-front game ES/PP, shoots like there's no tomorrow, and plays with faaaar more intensity. Noel does not shoot enough. He’s shooting 26% on 22 goals at 5v5; 27% all-situations with 28 goals. He shoots at a lower rate than virtually every draft eligible forward in the OHL (1.7 shots/game)! Is that an indication of his shooting talent? Maybe, he doesn't have a bad shot, but I like volume, especially out of a player like him, though he's not a bad passer. It's a bit of a red flag. Noel plays net-front on the PP, bouncing between PP1/2, because he's big, but I don't think his net front game is good either. And I'm not sure the Flyers would go for a lot of that.

 

[FLYguy3911]

But Tychonick is committed to North Dakota, which is basically a red flag. Bet Hakstol would never have recruited a d-man of that type though.

No chance. Watched him a good bit at the WJAC's and he was leading rushes any chance he got. He's interesting.

 

[pit]

Alright, here are my rankings. A couple of BIG caveats on it:

1) I have not had the time this year to curate it to the level I want, so for many of the names further down the list there aren't the secondary details like league, team, or even position.

2) I'm behind on updating this so consider it up to date to about mid-March. If/when I catch up I'll post the updated version for you guys but given that the mock draft is about to start I figured this was useful for a bunch of you.

3) If you're not familiar with my rankings and process - I am not a scout and do not watch games outside of the World Juniors and local WHL games. So these are not my personal rankings, rather, they are a sort of consensus ranking of EVERYTHING. I don't distinguish between professional rankings, personal rankings, HFBoard rankings, or mock drafts. They all get the same "weight" and I trust the process to balance out over the coarse of the year.

4) Again, for those not familiar - the colour blocks matter. They are an approximation of where I think a player will go. If you saw my rankings last year, you'll immediately notice that in general, the blocks are MUCH larger for 2018 than 2017. For the later rounds, this is because until May/June there isn't a lot of information on these players; but for the early rounds I believe it to be a factor of how deep this draft is.

5) I do not manipulate the process at all. Even though I have the big orange block from 2-20, I believe this to actually be two blocks (2-8 and 9-20). My ranking process is kinda failing here because there is little consensus on who is at the bottom of the 9-20 group such that they separate from the 2-8 group.

6) Again, because I am so far behind, I didn't bother fixing the text colour for some of the players. I know some are hard to read, so sorry for that, but it also shows players that are risers or fallers because they have the text colour from an block they were in previously (ie Serron Noel, Noah Dobson, etc were in the black group for a while).

7) I plan to upload this to googlesheets for anyone in the mock draft to use, or for search functionality, or for anyone else interested in manipulating the list.

With all that said, here's the big list of names:

Alas, we can't see them.

 

[daynus]

I am gonna hazard a guess for our 2 firsts, 15) Barret Hayton, c,w, Sault St. Marie our pick Denisenko lw, Russia
. Just more depth at Center, a guy that can play multi lines and roles. And a slight but fast highly skilled winger. Then maybe d or goalie in the second

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Kaut and Kotkaniemi should be right up there on our lists for the 14th/15th overall. I think both are going to be really good. Hope they can play wing though!

 

[Curufinwe]

As it stands we would have the 14th and 19th pick in the draft.

Tankathon | 2018 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

 

[Tripod]

As it stands we would have the 14th and 19th pick in the draft.

Tankathon | 2018 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

But if Florida loses in regulation, we get 15th.

 

[Alex91]

I finally have my top 10

Dahlin
Svenchnikov
Zadina
Boqvist
Tkachuk
Wahlstorm
Bouchard
Hayton
Hughes
Dobson

 

[deadhead]

#15 and #19 isn't bad, better than #15 and #25 or so, what we probably expected to end up with in September.

 

[Alex91]

#15 and #19 isn't bad, better than #15 and #25 or so, what we probably expected to end up with in September.

I expected 15-31 in September and now expect 31-15

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

There’s another one.

 

[Rebels57]

There’s another one.

Lame celebration. Bust.

 

[Magua]

“Luke”.

Clearly will be the worst one.

 

[Magua]

Lame celebration. Bust.

I’m at the point where every celebration that isn’t the Vulcan salute is a lame celebration.

Every celebration just feels boring and trite in the wake of the Vorobyev Revolution. Kid will usher in the next age of hockey celebrations and be hailed as one of the 21st century’s greatest sports figures. But I digress.

 

[BigToe]

What year? And is he supposed to go high too?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

What year? And is he supposed to go high too?

He won’t be eligible until 2021. He’ll be eligible to join the US Program &/or the OHL draft next year. So it’s really early as he hasn’t even began to play high level hockey yet. I’d imagine he goes the US Program route like his brothers which he’s probably going to be in the running for.

 

[BigToe]

He won’t be eligible until 2021. He’ll be eligible to join the US Program &/or the OHL draft next year. So it’s really early as he hasn’t even began to play high level hockey yet. I’d imagine he goes the US Program route like his brothers which he’s probably going to be in the running for.

Would be crazy if he ends up being a top 10 pick too.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Would be crazy if he ends up being a top 10 pick too.

Jack was really hyped up in the early going as there was talk of him applying for exceptional status in the OHL a year before. Then during his draft year for that he was considered the favorite to go #1 before he committed to the US Program.

Quinn wasn’t as hyped when joining the program. Max Gildon, David Farrance, Ryan Lindgren, & Chad Krys all probably had more hype at that point. But Hughes got better & ended being the best defensemen on that team by the end of last year & then took it to another level in college.

Their dad was the development coach for the Maple Leafs so that’s why they were living in Toronto for a bit there. But they’re back in Michigan now with Quinn at Ann Arbor with Michigan & Jack in Plymouth with the US Program. The youngest plays for Detroit Little Ceasers which is a powerhouse program for that level.

So perhaps the youngest can follow Quinn’s path. As it seems like their dad is really invested into the kids development there.

 

[Appleyard]

My "guys" at the moment are:

Kravtsov
Kotkaniemi
Lundeström
Hållander

I mean... I like a few other Euros as well, but getting 2/4 of them would be insane. I liked all four from the start of the year though so no real surprise there!

I also feel preeetty certain the Flyers will not be drafting Bokk. Take that for what it is worth.

 

[Psuhockey]

My "guys" at the moment are:

Kravtsov
Kotkaniemi
Lundeström
Hållander

I mean... I like a few other Euros as well, but getting 2/4 of them would be insane. I liked all four from the start of the year though so no real surprise there!

I also feel preeetty certain the Flyers will not be drafting Bokk. Take that for what it is worth.

What are your thoughts on Nils Lundkvist? He is a late birthday, late rising, right handed puck mover. The late riser and late birthday are some things it seems the Flyers tend to look at it.

 

[Appleyard]

What are your thoughts on Nils Lundkvist? He is a late birthday, late rising, right handed puck mover. The late riser and late birthday are some things it seems the Flyers tend to look at it.

Good player. Pretty high ceiling relative to a late round slot and if his defense can continue to improve he will be a real player.

Not 100% sure on how much his offensive potential will project at NHL level though. I am not sure he has more than solid ~35 point upside. But as a righty if he can be a good two-way guy with his skillset and hit 30+ points? That is a great 2nd pairing Dman.

 

[Magua]

I also feel preeetty certain the Flyers will not be drafting Bokk. Take that for what it is worth.

Can you elaborate?

I don’t have any opinion on Bokk.

 

[Jtown]

apparently Canes trying to get tougher. A simmer for Necas trade gets the canes much tougher.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

apparently Canes trying to get tougher. A simmer for Necas trade gets the canes much tougher.

I would jump for joy if we got Necas. Seriously, that kid is going to be f***ing good. Even though he's getting 3rd line minutes in the Extraliga playoffs, he's doing very very well. Kid has unreal speed and hands for his size.

This is why I have Necas in both of my fantasy leagues.