Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft - Shall We Begin?

[Flyerfan13]

It's going to be Samuelsson - pencil it in now.

The more I look at this draft the more I think he could be 1 of the targets. They may have traded for the blues pick thinking it would be in the 20's and that would be within the range of where Samuelson should go in this draft. Wonder if @Magua has any thoughts on him?

 

[Adam Warlock]

2016 is very similar to 2018.

Top franchise player at #1.
Top goal scorer at #2.
A Tkachuk brother picked in the top 10 both drafts.

2016 fell off around ~9, and it looks like 2018 will do the same.

If thats true...then both 1sts should used to try to move up in the top 9.

 

[FlyTimmo]

If thats true...then both 1sts should used to try to move up in the top 9.

It would be really awesome to get Hughes, Dobson, but otherwise, I'd rather stand pat and hope for Farabee and/or Kravtsov

 

[Chinatown88]

Just no Wilde.

 

[Chinatown88]

ISS Top 31 - Top Prospect Rankings

ISS rankings for April.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

ISS Top 31 - Top Prospect Rankings

ISS rankings for April.

Yeah I'm really liking our chances on Kaut.

 

[Stizzle]

ISS Top 31 - Top Prospect Rankings

ISS rankings for April.

They have a RHD, Jacob Bernard-Docker, from the AJHL, ranked 23rd. He's apparently committed to North Dakota.

This name is totally unfamiliar to me and there isn't much of a scouting report on him anywhere online. It's not like us to draft out of a place like the AJHL that early, but any RHD will peak my interest.

 

[BigToe]

Boqvist at 8? I thought he was a top 5 lock.

 

[denominator]

Button and McKenzie are the gold standard. Button does his own scouting and McKenzie polls actual NHL scouts and GMs. The Draft Analyst | Your NHL Draft Resource is a pretty good free site. Denominator, who also posts on this board sometimes, had a pretty good color-coded and detailed mock last year.

I've fallen a long way behind on my 2018 rankings and have been scrambling for the past few weeks to get them caught up. I doubt I'll post them to the main boards this year but hopefully I can get them up for you guys here on Friday, or if not, next week some time.

 

[The Madrigal]

Farabee, Denisenko, or Kaut. If they keep both picks I expect them to go "off the board" with one of them.

 

[Magua]

The more I look at this draft the more I think he could be 1 of the targets. They may have traded for the blues pick thinking it would be in the 20's and that would be within the range of where Samuelson should go in this draft. Wonder if @Magua has any thoughts on him?

Sorry, I missed my summons. But I gotchu!

As usual, I already wrote a blurb about Samuelsson. But this was from back in November:

I know reliable, steady, safe players have become somewhat of a punching bag around these parts (for obvious Flyers related reasons), but Mattias Samuelsson (LD) seems to be just that. Except actually a solid one, not a mediocre player masquerading as reliable, steady, safe. He has that right amount of aggressiveness in all 3-zones for a steady type. He’s not a player I’m immediately looking to as possessing a "high ceiling," but I think he definitely has top 4 potential and is a pretty high floor bet for that. Out of the major 3 d-men on the NTDP (or 4, I guess, if you want to include Adam Samuelsson, Ulf’s son, and he’s even bigger, but his puck skills, mobility, and hockey sense are a step down), Mattias looks the most readily pro of them all. He really doesn’t possess many weaknesses and is the model of efficiency in all 3 zones. He played on the PP (something like 4 d-men did rotationally, and they’re a high scoring team, so take points with a grain of salt for that defense group), but I’m not sure that’s going to be his forte given he’s not a particularly creative player on/off puck, which relates back to the ceiling part. But I thought he was good and patient at getting shots through traffic, keeping his head up for the shot.

Mattias is very fundamentally sound, no doubt relating to his development coach dad, Kjell, and will make a living at ES/PK at the pro level. Not a flashy puck mover up ice, but he equips himself well and makes deft first passes, short or long, out of his own end to get transition moving at the very least. He’s 6’3 200+ lb already and uses ALL of it to separate guys from the puck in open ice or along the walls. Definitely knows how to use his body in effective ways to drive play. He plays both LD or RD as a lefty, which he did in all the games (a few d-men were switching sides, as pairs rotated often). Also, a skater with a fluid, strong stride who can get back on defense when he's caught deep. He’d activate on the rush often enough as a trailer, or even sneak down low in the o-zone on switches from time to time. Constantly making smart pinches and keeping good gaps (most of the NTDP d-men were; they’re pretty well coached in that area). He seemed to have the best hockey sense of the bunch by a decent margin, and everything came very calm and easy. A minor quibble is he could keep his stick on the ice more, as he'd often keep two hands on it in midair. In this age of play-driving and efficiency and the revamped idea of what a steady d-man is, Mattias looks like someone who could be a quality top 4 one, especially paired with a dynamic partner.

So, it's been over 5 months since I wrote that. Nothing has really changed when I watch Samuelsson. He's an easy to read, consistent player. Samuelsson is what the Flyers pretend to see in Hagg. Physical beast 1 on 1, advanced defensive understanding, phenomenal at possession changing plays, tight gaps, readily pinches, can pop up in offensive situations if it's the right play, and just smart and puts you at ease.......you know, a modern bottom 4 defensive d-man. Doesn't have great skill or anything, but he's smooth and plays within himself and is no detriment handling or making reads with pucks. A couple times in recent months I'd see him get a little sloppy with the passes under pressure, but generally he is not and has his head up. As others have been called up in recent months to the u18 team, his PP time has dwindled, but you aren't drafting him for PP prowess.

I've dropped him a little in my rankings since November, as the question of his upside has weighed on me more and I think his puck moving is more competent than great, but he's a very very safe bet to be a solid NHLer who makes a difference in his shifts to drive play, even if he's not dynamic. I have absolutely zero question marks with him translating, and there's value in how known a commodity he would be. Contrary to popular thought, d-men like this aren't so dime-a-dozen. And I don't mean that lazily because he's a defensive d-man with size; he's a GOOD defensive d-man with NHL tools. It's why I wouldn't be opposed to him with OUR pick. I'd probably rank him in that general area around 20, so it's not a reach or anything. I've always liked Mattias. I imagine the Flyers like him too. At the same time, I'm not sure there won't be several better options available over him. I'm also not too concerned with forcing a d-man pick, let alone a RHD, and would go BPA, even if that's a LHD or 2 forwards. My guess is he's a quick riser to the NHL, within 1-2 years even (or plays out his ELC in the AHL for us).

 

[Alex91]

Would love to snag Kupari with the blues pick

 

[Flyerfan13]

Sorry, I missed my summons. But I gotchu!

As usual, I already wrote a blurb about Samuelsson. But this was from back in November:



So, it's been over 5 months since I wrote that. Nothing has really changed when I watch Samuelsson. He's an easy to read, consistent player. Samuelsson is what the Flyers pretend to see in Hagg. Physical beast 1 on 1, advanced defensive understanding, phenomenal at possession changing plays, tight gaps, readily pinches, can pop up in offensive situations if it's the right play, and just smart and puts you at ease.......you know, a modern bottom 4 defensive d-man. Doesn't have great skill or anything, but he's smooth and plays within himself and is no detriment handling or making reads with pucks. A couple times in recent months I'd see him get a little sloppy with the passes under pressure, but generally he is not and has his head up. As others have been called up in recent months to the u18 team, his PP time has dwindled, but you aren't drafting him for PP prowess.

I've dropped him a little in my rankings since November, as the question of his upside has weighed on me more and I think his puck moving is more competent than great, but he's a very very safe bet to be a solid NHLer who makes a difference in his shifts to drive play, even if he's not dynamic. I have absolutely zero question marks with him translating, and there's value in how known a commodity he would be. Contrary to popular thought, d-men like this aren't so dime-a-dozen. And I don't mean that lazily because he's a defensive d-man with size; he's a GOOD defensive d-man with NHL tools. It's why I wouldn't be opposed to him with OUR pick. I'd probably rank him in that general area around 20, so it's not a reach or anything. I've always liked Mattias. I imagine the Flyers like him too. At the same time, I'm not sure there won't be several better options available over him. I'm also not too concerned with forcing a d-man pick, let alone a RHD, and would go BPA, even if that's a LHD or 2 forwards. My guess is he's a quick riser to the NHL, within 1-2 years even (or plays out his ELC in the AHL for us).

Thanks as always appreciate ur response ...I did a thread search and nothing came up ...he seams to be moving up some draft rankings/mock drafts a few spots having been ranked a late first early second and now in the mid 20's.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Boqvist at 8? I thought he was a top 5 lock.

Not saying Boqvist is a top 5 lock, but ISS rankings are completely worthless.

In 2017, they had Vilardi at 3, Tippett at 5, Liljegren at 8, Makar at 9, Pettersson at 20, etc.

They have plenty of other laughable stuff throughout the years, like Nichushkin above Barkov in 2013 (same as Pronman's dumb ass).

 

[baudib1]

@Magua you're a treasure.

I'm too lazy to look it up but I assume Mattias is a large specimen.

sounds like a reasonable pick for us.

 

[Flyerfan13]

@Magua you're a treasure.

I'm too lazy to look it up but I assume Mattias is a large specimen.

sounds like a reasonable pick for us.

6' 3" 200+ and still filling out.

 

[BigToe]

Not saying Boqvist is a top 5 lock, but ISS rankings are completely worthless.

In 2017, they had Vilardi at 3, Tippett at 5, Liljegren at 8, Makar at 9, Pettersson at 20, etc.

They have plenty of other laughable stuff throughout the years, like Nichushkin above Barkov in 2013 (same as Pronman's dumb ass).

I thought they were reliable.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[Winston Wolf]

I thought they were reliable.

Like in the Lehtera and Filppula sense of the word?

 

[Magua]

Pretty uninteresting, mediocre crop outside of Ty Smith who I don't need to see, though I'm sure they'll make an add or two. Like USA should absolutely shit on them. Probably the most interesting player on that team isn't even eligible for this year. Or next. Alexis Lafreniere. Early pick for #1 in 2020 and Next Big Thing material. And then Peyton Krebs potentially high for 2019 too.

Tychonick is the one eligible who interests me the most. Never seen him. Smaller, offensive guy out of BCHL who could be a late 1st-early 2nd, but who knows. I remember Ian Mitchell who plays for Denver now just popped at the u18s last year with a similar profile out of AJHL. But Tychonick is committed to North Dakota, which is basically a red flag. Bet Hakstol would never have recruited a d-man of that type though.

McBain too playing for OJHL. Been dropping all year due to average scoring. But he looked good at Hlinka. Maybe still a solid 2nd? He has a lot to prove, and I have no other viewings.

I think Dellandrea might be an underrated player on that terribad Flint team, so he has a lot to gain from being a 2nd/3rd round bubble guy or whatever, though I'm not sure he's anything special either. Interested to see him in a different setting. Cam Hillis as a mid-rounder perhaps will get a nice showcase, though I'm not certain how he will project as a pro. Skilled and spunky little guy, but I'd like to see him at wing instead of center. McShane, I find him a little bland and uninteresting, though I want to watch more to see if I'm missing something. Then Serron Noel, but I think I have a strong read on him already.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

I would trade Wayne Simmonds and our own 1st round pick to the Oilers for the 7th overall pick and take Oliver Wahlstrom. Take Serron Noel with the STL pick.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I would trade Wayne Simmonds and our own 1st round pick to the Oilers for the 7th overall pick and take Oliver Wahlstrom. Take Serron Noel with the STL pick.

I've soured a bit on Noel, and would take him in the early 2nd round, but I'd rather not spend a mid-1st on him.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

I've soured a bit on Noel, and would take him in the early 2nd round, but I'd rather not spend a mid-1st on him.

Fair. What about Kotkaniemi?

 

[FlyTimmo]

Fair. What about Kotkaniemi?

I've only seen him play once. So, take my response with a grain of salt.

I know the Flyers don't have the propensity to draft Fins, but if we were going to he'd probably fit the bill. He is a smart player, a good playmaker, has a surprisingly quick wrister and is responsible defensively. The only thing that has me a tiny bit worried, was in the game I saw I wasn't overly impressed with his 1st step. He isn't a bad skater, in fact he has some speed. He just doesn't have that quick burst. I wish I could have seen him more, but I'd definitely be inclined to use a mid-1st on him.

 

[denominator]

Alright, here are my rankings. A couple of BIG caveats on it:

1) I have not had the time this year to curate it to the level I want, so for many of the names further down the list there aren't the secondary details like league, team, or even position.

2) I'm behind on updating this so consider it up to date to about mid-March. If/when I catch up I'll post the updated version for you guys but given that the mock draft is about to start I figured this was useful for a bunch of you.

3) If you're not familiar with my rankings and process - I am not a scout and do not watch games outside of the World Juniors and local WHL games. So these are not my personal rankings, rather, they are a sort of consensus ranking of EVERYTHING. I don't distinguish between professional rankings, personal rankings, HFBoard rankings, or mock drafts. They all get the same "weight" and I trust the process to balance out over the coarse of the year.

4) Again, for those not familiar - the colour blocks matter. They are an approximation of where I think a player will go. If you saw my rankings last year, you'll immediately notice that in general, the blocks are MUCH larger for 2018 than 2017. For the later rounds, this is because until May/June there isn't a lot of information on these players; but for the early rounds I believe it to be a factor of how deep this draft is.

5) I do not manipulate the process at all. Even though I have the big orange block from 2-20, I believe this to actually be two blocks (2-8 and 9-20). My ranking process is kinda failing here because there is little consensus on who is at the bottom of the 9-20 group such that they separate from the 2-8 group.

6) Again, because I am so far behind, I didn't bother fixing the text colour for some of the players. I know some are hard to read, so sorry for that, but it also shows players that are risers or fallers because they have the text colour from an block they were in previously (ie Serron Noel, Noah Dobson, etc were in the black group for a while).

7) I plan to upload this to googlesheets for anyone in the mock draft to use, or for search functionality, or for anyone else interested in manipulating the list.

With all that said, here's the big list of names: