Speculation: 2017 Offseason Thread - Part II: Drafts Galore

[Ambassador Of Fun]

If you sub out Honka for Nemeth, the number is actually $4.8 million. Ritchie has arbitration rights. It could push him closer to $2 million. Faksa would be between $1.25M-$2M.

Moral of the story ... there's no money to sign Valeri Nichushkin probably. It's crazy, but that extra $250K AAV probably cuts them out. In the highly unlikely best case scenario Ritchie and Faksa both get $3 million, you'd have to get Nuke at under $1.5 which seems unlikely. You could waive Cracknell to play in the AHL, and you might have the space for all three.

Not that I don't believe you, but do you have a comp for Ritchie where he's getting 2M in arbitration?

 

[BigG44]

We have 4.718M in cap space right now. Assuming we drop Nemeth + one of Oleksiak/Pateryn to AHL for Honka, we will have 4.8M in space. Assume 1.2-1.5 for Ritchie and 1.5-2 for Faksa, that leaves us 1.3-2.7M left in space. you can send down Cracknell or Flynn for an additional 700k in space. You prob want a 700k cushion though for injuries/trades at the deadline. 1.3M prob isn't enough to get Nichushkin back but 2.7 should be more than enough. We'll see I suppose.

Got to be honest. I didn't catch Cap Friendly had Flynn up on their roster. Dallas is at $5.5 million then because there was never a real shot Flynn would be up ... or I should say ... they didn't sign Pitlick, Flynn, and re-sign Cracknell expecting all three to be on the active roster.

I think you're low on Ritchie only because of arbitration. I think it'll force him up a bit, likely at $1.5 or slightly higher.

 

[Morry83]

I love Nichushkin and want him back, but it was his choice to sign a 2 year deal. He has to deal with whatever consequences come with that.

 

[BigG44]

Given Nichushkin would probably be looking at third line minutes again, I doubt he's itching to take a bargain contract to return.

With Janmark's knee, there's legitimately still a spot in the Top 6 for a guy to play LW. I'd prefer Janmark just come in and not miss a beat, but the chance that doesn't happen is at least a real chance.

 

[LT]

It's not that simple. You think Valeri Nichushkin is going to pay his own buyout fee (required by NHL) AND sign for the cheap, cheap in Dallas. Doesn't seem realistic.

I wish I knew how expensive buyouts were in the KHL, but I imagine they're going to be higher for a guy who is penciled in to the Olympic lineup. I'm not saying it's impossible, but financially, because of the buyout, he can't sign a tiny deal probably.

No, I don't. I don't expect him to return this year. We're now quite full up front, the money doesn't quite work, and I'm not even sure he'd do well enough to supplant Janmark or Ritchie (or whoever else) from the last top 6 spot (certainly debatable, but he's not a lock should he return).

 

[Frozen Failure]

Nuke can stay in Russia.

I mean, we still only have 5 legit top 6 forwards on the roster, but adding Nuke won't help that. If he wants to come back and compete for a roster spot, he can come back next year.

As for Ritchie's arbitration, I'd say he'll be compared to J.T. Miller, whom received a 2 year, 2.75m per contract after his bridge or Namestnikov, who received 2 years at 1.9375. I would guess 2.25 for Ritchie, 2.25 for Faksa, and we'll be set for two years.

 

[Troy McClure]

With Janmark's knee, there's legitimately still a spot in the Top 6 for a guy to play LW. I'd prefer Janmark just come in and not miss a beat, but the chance that doesn't happen is at least a real chance.

Janmark will have the inside track for that spot. He's a better players and much better on the left wing.

And with this off-season of optimism, I'm going to spend the rest of the summer assuming Janmark's knee is as good as new.

 

[BigG44]

Not that I don't believe you, but do you have a comp for Ritchie where he's getting 2M in arbitration?

Antione Roussel's season before arbitration was 14 goals and 29 points. Ritchie just scored 16 goals and 24 points, and he's considered a better prospect which will factor in some. On top of that, Roussel's QO would have been just under $700K, something that would factor in while Ritchie's is just under $920K.

Very little chance this get's to arbitration as well which typically suggest a slightly higher number. The process is rarely a good one and it typically damages relationships. My guess is this will be a 2 year deal. If it was 1, you're probably looking at a $1.25 million hit probably after scoring 16 goals. Dallas, especially with the Seguin situation, probably wants that 2nd year, and reasonably, $1.75 for that next year is probably about right.

So ... a perfect deal is probably a $1.5 million AAV. That said, with the ability to go to arbitration, should he choose that, my guess is it could be slightly higher which is why I said under or around $2 million. Anything in that range wouldn't surprise me or be an over-payment.

Dallas wanted to avoid arbitration so much with Roussel that they surprisingly gave him $2 million a year for extra term. Ritchie and his agent should not do that given his offensive potential.

 

[Ambassador Of Fun]

Nuke can stay in Russia.

I mean, we still only have 5 legit top 6 forwards on the roster, but adding Nuke won't help that. If he wants to come back and compete for a roster spot, he can come back next year.

As for Ritchie's arbitration, I'd say he'll be compared to J.T. Miller, whom received a 2 year, 2.75m per contract after his bridge or Namestnikov, who received 2 years at 1.9375. I would guess 2.25 for Ritchie, 2.25 for Faksa, and we'll be set for two years.

Miller had a 43 pt season prior to getting that deal and 23 in 58gp the year before. Ritchie had 24pts in 78 and 10pts in 40 games combined the two season before. I wouldn't say they are close at all. Namestnikov had 35 in 80 and 16 in 35. Again, more productive. I'm thinking Ritchie comes in under 1.6.

 

[BigG44]

Janmark will have the inside track for that spot. He's a better players and much better on the left wing.

And with this off-season of optimism, I'm going to spend the rest of the summer assuming Janmark's knee is as good as new.

Didn't say he shouldn't have it, and I think it's great to be optimistic. I'm only pointing out that it was only a month or two ago they were still saying 85% he played again. Great odds, but it's a potential career ending condition that no one has played with before. Just being realistic.

My best hope for Dallas would be that Janmark is the same guy he was, regardless of Nichushkin return to Texas or not.

 

[BigG44]

Miller had a 43 pt season prior to getting that deal and 23 in 58gp the year before. Ritchie had 24pts in 78 and 10pts in 40 games combined the two season before. I wouldn't say they are close at all. Namestnikov had 35 in 80 and 16 in 35. Again, more productive. I'm thinking Ritchie comes in under 1.6.

If he goes to arbitration, that's probably about right, but again, I don't think he does. I think Dallas and the agent meet somewhere in the middle to avoid the whole mess, and it's still going to be right around that $1.5 to $2 ... not a big number.

 

[Zrhutch]

I blacked out, did I miss anything

 

[Satan]

I'd risk taking Ritchie to arbitration. He's not getting over 1.5M

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Why chill the off season buzz and possible locker room chemistry over a few hundred thousand dollars? For players he likes, Nill has been fairly generous (Rous and Eakin, and even Klingberg in term) For those he doesn't, Nemeth, Jamie O, Dillon, he has been stingy, and at least Dillon was gone in a hurry.

I don't think they would have protected BR if they didn't think he was part of the core. And, I think the quick signing of Nemeth shows he is above Jamie O in the pecking order, as well, and will be the 7th man while JO is traded somewhere. Just IMHO.

The only reason would be to bring in Nuke or one other top 6 FW where a little bit of cap space would help, but I don't think we need Nuke or much else in the way of depth scoring at the moment.

 

[Hockey Dad]

I think nemeth was signed quickly because he was easiest. Nill gave him a contract and said take it. I have talked to Nill and asked him one player that he liked that was in he Ahl. At the time it was Ritchie and he was really excited about him. I don't think he tries to lowball him.

 

[BigG44]

I think nemeth was signed quickly because he was easiest. Nill gave him a contract and said take it. I have talked to Nill and asked him one player that he liked that was in he Ahl. At the time it was Ritchie and he was really excited about him. I don't think he tries to lowball him.

Nemeth was easy because he signed his qualifying offer knowing full well he'd make less any other way. QO's are great for fringe NHLers teams don't want to lose for nothing. If it's under $1M, they're guaranteed a raise, and it's the one instance they make more money than they would on the open market.

Nemeth gets $650K easily in any other scenario. I'm not complaining just illustrating why this was an easy contract.

 

[BigG44]

I'd risk taking Ritchie to arbitration. He's not getting over 1.5M

I'd agree with that because it would be a one year deal. I said earlier I thought he'd get $1.25 on a 1 year deal, but my guess is Dallas would prefer 2 years which should drag it over $1.5M AAV.

I did finally sort of think of a comparable who went to arbitration and actually got the award. Chiasson after 2 full seasons, coming off a $900K contract, was awarded $1.2 million. Alex had more production, but it was also 2 years ago so somewhere in that range makes sense.

Ritchie has 3 more years until he's an UFA so my guess is he and his representation would want as much money as possible in Year 2 to keep the QO high. I could see him getting around $1M in Year 1 and closer to $2M in Year 2.

That said, I think Ritchie's side wanted the 1 year deal last year because they though he'd have a shot at a bigger role and bigger pay day. Oleksiak did the same thing 2 years ago. It wouldn't surprise me that much if his side pushed for a one year deal again hoping to try and cash in next summer.

Personally, my guess is Ritchie proves to be a bit more difficult than Faksa even though Faksa has the bigger, established role.

 

[BigG44]

Gaglardi paid out $18.25 million in bonuses in the past 3 days.

$8 Million to Jamie Benn
$7 Million to Alexander Radulov
$3 Million to Ben Bishop
$250K to Tyler Pitlick

I forgot that $56 million of Jamie Benn's $76 million is signing bonus. His actual salary after signing bonus during the season is only $1 million per year in Year 3 through Year 8.

 

[Magic Mittens]

Gaglardi paid out $18.25 million in bonuses in the past 3 days.

$8 Million to Jamie Benn
$7 Million to Alexander Radulov
$3 Million to Ben Bishop
$250K to Tyler Pitlick

I forgot that $56 million of Jamie Benn's $76 million is signing bonus. His actual salary after signing bonus during the season is only $1 million per year in Year 3 through Year 8.

Wow that's crazy with Benns. Never knew that

Im guessing Gaglardi is going to be expecting a big season this yeah eh

 

[oconnor9sean]

So we have finally hit the start of the "offseason". That sucks.

Only one month until the Cowboys are back, so not too long of a down time.

 

[Dallasman]

So has Nill said he's done with moves? I haven't seen him say that anywhere but I haven't heard or read all the interviews either.

 

[Morry83]

Anyone have any jersey number predictions?

Radulov - #47 is available, so I don't see why he wouldn't wear it

Hanzal - He's worn #11 with Arizona and #19 with Minnesota. I could see McKenzie (if he's on the team come October) giving up #11 to Hanzal.

Methot - Wore #3 with Ottawa, but that's obviously taken. I believe he wore #33 with Canada, so I'm guessing he'll choose that.

Pitlick - If Nemeth is moved, I'm guessing he'll take #15. If not, the only other number that available that he's worn is #68. It seems like the team tries to avoid high numbers in general though, with the exception of big name players.

 

[BigG44]

So has Nill said he's done with moves? I haven't seen him say that anywhere but I haven't heard or read all the interviews either.

He's not said anything, but Heika and Shapiro have both said they think he's done. Heika today even said he thinks they go to camp with 9 D .....

 

[txomisc]

He's not said anything, but Heika and Shapiro have both said they think he's done. Heika today even said he thinks they go to camp with 9 D .....

i think thats the best way to do it. Start camp with everyone signed and let them battle it out. to me 5 spots are pretty obvious. Klingberg, methot, lindell, hamhuis and honka. let the rest of the guys determine who gets the 6th, 7th and possibly 8th spots.

 

[Benneguin]

i think thats the best way to do it. Start camp with everyone signed and let them battle it out. to me 5 spots are pretty obvious. Klingberg, methot, lindell, hamhuis and honka. let the rest of the guys determine who gets the 6th, 7th and possibly 8th spots.

You say that now but if Honka ends up in the AHL because Nemeth looks more like the Hitch type of player in a small sample size you might sing a different tune.