Speculation: 2017 Offseason Thread - Part II: Drafts Galore
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usefulfiction
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David Castillo
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Speaking of speculation, according to Shapiro, Nill and Nichushkin spoke last week.
http://www.wrongsideoftheredline.com/2017/06/counting-the-cards-how-cody-eakin-ended-up-in-vegas/
Not real news of course, but I do hope Nuke comes back. Even when you take into account the right wingers not under contract, Nichushkin is an upgrade over the current crop of droogs. An injured Sharp and a stone foot Ritchie are not the guys to help Seguin or Spezza on the right side. Hopefully Dallas is in on Radulov though.
http://www.wrongsideoftheredline.com/2017/06/counting-the-cards-how-cody-eakin-ended-up-in-vegas/
Not real news of course, but I do hope Nuke comes back. Even when you take into account the right wingers not under contract, Nichushkin is an upgrade over the current crop of droogs. An injured Sharp and a stone foot Ritchie are not the guys to help Seguin or Spezza on the right side. Hopefully Dallas is in on Radulov though.
BigG44
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She's one of the people I like most when it comes to fantasy stats. Interesting that she explains the CF gab by claiming strength of competition. If it's accurate that the majority of minutes away from Methot came against much, much weaker competition, that seems like at least a reasonable explanation to partially explain the gap.
BigG44
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Should be noted he has a 10 team not trade, and the only team I've heard so far on it is Montreal. I thought I heard another team in Canada, but I can't remember which one.
I'd say there's a good chance Dallas wouldn't be on that list so don't count on it killing a trade.
I'd say there's a good chance Dallas wouldn't be on that list so don't count on it killing a trade.
LT
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Magic Mittens
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I'm ok with Methot as long as it's nothing to do with the 3rd OA.
He is slow and his shot is some kind of terrible, but he is good defensively and he's pretty pyshical. Could be great in Hitchcocks system also
I'd prefer Smith, but there's a good chance he resigns in NY
Trade for Methodman and go after Radulov ( hopefully sign him for 3 years )
He is slow and his shot is some kind of terrible, but he is good defensively and he's pretty pyshical. Could be great in Hitchcocks system also
I'd prefer Smith, but there's a good chance he resigns in NY
Trade for Methodman and go after Radulov ( hopefully sign him for 3 years )
Hard pass on Methot. Declining since 2014 according to his Hero graph, and another past their prime 5 mil a year defender whose only going to decline (he's 32). We're gonna give up significant assets for him because his name and "HE PLAYED WITH KARLSSON! LETS PLAY HIM WITH KLINGBERG!" If I'm giving up significant assets for a 5 mil a year defender, give me Tanev. At least he's mid prime, and I have him for a few years under contract, and I know what I'm getting.
This is gonna be Gonchar/Hudler/Niemi 4.0. Nill has been terrible with acquiring vets. Its as simple as that. Spezza is the only semi success, but it'd be hard to fail considering he was a bonafide #1 center when acquired, and we got him for peanuts. None of his Vet acquisitions are going to be on the team next year (unless Sharp comes back, but honestly, is anyone in love with Sharp as a #1 wing?) His poor decisions are getting close to outweighing his good ones, as Spezza has already shown signs of decline. Acquiring Methot will tip that scale to even, and then I'd have to make my decision based on the draft. I'm not liking these rumors at all.
This is gonna be Gonchar/Hudler/Niemi 4.0. Nill has been terrible with acquiring vets. Its as simple as that. Spezza is the only semi success, but it'd be hard to fail considering he was a bonafide #1 center when acquired, and we got him for peanuts. None of his Vet acquisitions are going to be on the team next year (unless Sharp comes back, but honestly, is anyone in love with Sharp as a #1 wing?) His poor decisions are getting close to outweighing his good ones, as Spezza has already shown signs of decline. Acquiring Methot will tip that scale to even, and then I'd have to make my decision based on the draft. I'm not liking these rumors at all.
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Mr Misty
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What about Methot is the thing people are into?
I know it's more complicated than "just sign Smith." But he went to Wisconsin. Also he is like 4 years younger. And with full ownership of the "Tanev is injury prone" argument, I notice that there is one fewer absence for Methot over the past 4 years. 6 years for 30m would be comparable to the Methot contract and cost 0 assets.
I know it's more complicated than "just sign Smith." But he went to Wisconsin. Also he is like 4 years younger. And with full ownership of the "Tanev is injury prone" argument, I notice that there is one fewer absence for Methot over the past 4 years. 6 years for 30m would be comparable to the Methot contract and cost 0 assets.
According to twitter, he blocks shots, and he's a big name. So sounds like Kris Russel. You either love him, or hate him because his advanced numbers are ****. There's also a loud contingent of people saying "He played with Karlsson! He's just what we need for Klingberg!"
Benneguin
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You know it's not a good sign when the focus is on trying to explain away his bad stats. I couldn't find any good stats last week on him and he wasn't a standout, IMO in the Pens series. People want to give him credit for Crosby when it was the trap and a team wide effort to slow their speed down.
The fact that Methot doesn't have good/great stats playing with the best defensemen in the game should tell you all you need to know about how good he really is.
LT
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Big, LHD, can skate well, has been paired with someone who's stylistically similar to Klingberg and done well (granted, this is Karlsson).
Also is available for trade and has a contract that fits in well with our cap situation and future plans. Likely shouldn't cost anything ridiculous.
If we're worried about being injury prone, let's talk about Smith for a minute. He's also missed 67 games in the last 4 seasons. Right up there with Methot and Tanev. He's also never scored more than 19 points in a season, and he's not really a guy known for his defensive ability. His fancy stats weren't much better than Methot's last year. And both have historically had good fancy stats.
Smith has also never played more than 18-19 minutes a game on average. Methot has a decent margin on him, averaging around 21 minutes a game.
Yes, we can get Smith for free, but we're also going to be committed to him for likely 4-5 years, maybe even more. The UFA market is awful for defense this year, which means they'll cost a premium. I suspect it'll be a contract we regret in as soon as one or two years down the road. With Methot, his contract only goes for two more years. A 30M, 6 year deal for Smith is absolutely dreadful, and I have no doubt we'd be wanting out of that before the end of the season.
I suspect they're planning on keeping him, but the ideal target would be Schmidt. He'll cost the most, obviously, but if we could get him without moving the 3rd, I'd shoot. Beyond that, Methot and Smith are the only other options (that we know of so far). And as above, I think it's pretty obvious who I'd rather have.
This isn't so much about wanting Methot so badly, but moreso him being the most ideal option of those available.
LT
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I'm still slightly hopeful that Minnesota has Brodin on the block. With Granlund and Neiderreiter likely eating up most, if not all of their cap space, they'll have to move one of their bigger contracts in order to fill out their depth.
Scandella is the obvious choice, but if they feel the return for Brodin is better, maybe they trade him instead.
They could also just try to find a taker for Pominville. Wouldn't be opposed to acquiring him for cheap either, similar to the Sharp trade.
Scandella is the obvious choice, but if they feel the return for Brodin is better, maybe they trade him instead.
They could also just try to find a taker for Pominville. Wouldn't be opposed to acquiring him for cheap either, similar to the Sharp trade.
Mr Misty
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I don't think you can compare Klingberg to Karlson and I haven't heard about his skating being a plus.
And to be clear, those numbers are to compare the two. Methot signed a 4 year deal for 4.9 per. A teensy bit of inflation in the past 2 years gets us to 5m and 6 years ends at the same age Methot's deal will. I really doubt we'd be talking those actual terms with Smith, but if we assume a normal aging curve we'd be getting the more valuable years for him in addition to the more problematic ones at the end for both.
Lastly, I'd like to say that there was substantial feeling about our system being dreadful in the past 12 months. I made many arguments to the effect of "The sky isn't falling, the system graduated a bunch of good players at once like it was supposed to and just needs time to recover." This isn't to say "Where were you when this was happening?" but instead to say that even I wasn't of the opinion we had stuff to trade with. I don't know how 1 spare 1st and Gavin Bayreuther could cause a total paradigm shift. Texas was bad and is going to be worse without Honka and Elie and possibly Gurianov. If we screw up this draft there's a big barren patch after Hintz, I don't think we can afford to make a big trade.
BigG44
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Darren Dreger was on TSN 1260 up here in Edmonton this morning and said that the asking price for Methot is high right now and Dallas isn't biting on it.
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I wouldn't give up more than 2018 2nd + a 4th for Methot. Go the free agent route if he's more expensive.
on a very personal note, i have to say even if sometime i don't follow Jim Nill (what's the point to have 10M cap for goalies while this is no more a key position compare to 90' 00' ?) not bidding on Methot or Radulov who will definitely burst the bank by very long contract for their age is something that i really appreciate.
I'd go with a long term Shattenkirk, even with the very poor post season performance, i'm quite sure he could be a great addition to the D-Squad. my dream would be 5x5M even 5.5 would be acceptable.
I'd go with a long term Shattenkirk, even with the very poor post season performance, i'm quite sure he could be a great addition to the D-Squad. my dream would be 5x5M even 5.5 would be acceptable.
BigG44
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Unfortunately, that's not a very realistic dream. Last year, 31 year old, left shot Alex Goligoski signed a 5 year deal for $5.475 million per year. He was among the top scoring D in the league, usually around Top 30, for 5 years before signing that deal.
Shattenkirk has been an even higher scoring D for the last 6 seasons, he's only 28 years old, and he's a right shot. If he signs for less than $6 x 6, it will likely have been to play for a contender. He already rejected a 7 year deal worth $42 million to Tampa, killing a trade between the Blues and Lightning. That young man seems to have his eyes set on a massive pay day, and with how terrible the D market is + the face he's a right shot, he'll probably prove that gamble was the right decision financially.
I wasn't aware of the 7x7 by tampa ! ouch ! that hurt quite a lot ! with that amount of money (including the probable salary cap increase in the future) you just kill your chance for being a cup containder. Let's go draft Heiskanen or Foote then and wait 2 seasons ?
oconnor9sean
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The fact that a couple of "stats nerds" have said that Methot is better than his numbers has comforted me a bit. I'd much prefer Brodin, Scandella or de Haan though.
