Well, I thought I better get this out there sooner than later. Mainly because I keep flipping rankings every three seconds on some players.
Preamble: Every time I felt I had nailed down a list, I would find a guy that I was going to rank lower and then would fall in love with an aspect of his game and I would be trying to justify a move 6-7 slots higher and then the process would happen again. There are honestly a half dozen players that I could rationalize the Coyotes taking at 7.
History: Last year will go down as the Logan Brown draft list. I was enamored with the big C at the Under 18’s as the upside of a 6’8†playmaking C playing on a relatively small non-physical Coyote team was at the top of my wish list. The next players on my list…. Tyson Jost and a small playmaking forward Clayton Keller whose dynamic play did not go unnoticed. That being said, I absolutely buried Chychrun after his U18 performance and was originally going to drop him from 8 to 18 on my list before I ended up slotting him in the middle at 13.
Bias: I love size. Arizona is a small team that is largely not physical or very hard to play against. I know I have been a stronger (devils) advocate for a big C like Rasmussen and I will say I took great lengths on slotting him (similar as I did with Chychrun) to reflect my actual opinion on how he will play in the NHL.
Rumors: How do you not hear rumors about who likes who and not have that influence your rankings? All I can do is acknowledge the rumor that is out there that Makar is a player Arizona has red circled and hope I haven’t moved him higher than I otherwise would have.
Organizational Preference: The biggest needs for the franchise are top line C, top pairing RD, and RW depth (although the righty/lefty thing isn’t apparently as big of a deal these days as we are growing more comfortable with the concept of Duclair and/or Keller playing the right side. My feeling though is the organization has long been without sufficient depth at C and while I have long been an advocate for Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak, I wouldn’t hesitate to provide preference to further solidifying the C position for the next decade.
Coyote Draft Philosophy: Under Maloney, I felt I had a great feel for their draft list. Under Tippett/Chayka? I get the sense that Keller was so far out in front of everyone else at 7OV last year that it was a “no brainer†for our group. Bernhardt has a history of missing on his first round picks but the early returns of Perlini (I was wrong on that draft list btw) and Keller say otherwise.
My Opinion: I honestly think that if we walk away from the draft having used all three of our picks in the Top 35 then this next season will be a huge disaster and we will be looking to completely overhaul our management and coaching (please no more Dave Tippett is awful posts – there’s a separate thread for this where you can all rub your hands in glee at this concept). I think we need to walk away from the draft table with an immediate asset that either provides sufficient depth at C to buffer development of Strome or a significant upgrade at RD to finally solidify the other glaring organizational weakness. Failure to do so would be in my mind an organizational failure and one that I don’t believe the fan base should be very forgiving on.
My List:
1. C Nolan Patrick – This is largely based on what I saw last year. Yes, he has a history of injury. That being said, he has the highest upside of any player in the draft.
2. C Nico Hischer – In a “two†player draft, I have him at 2. While everyone was complaining about Patrick’s injury history, Hischer’s play dropped off significantly in the last half.
3. C Gabriel Virardi – The struggle is real. This is the safe single instead of looking for the home run. Yes, he may only be a 20 Goal, 50 point C but he would add great depth to a position that I feel needs to be prioritized. I also hate myself for placing him here because I want to put a flashier player here.
4. D Makar – Great skating puck moving D who apparently some teams (Arizona and Detroit) have rated as the best blueliner. Dominated like he should in a low caliber league. We almost had a cardiac arrest incident by fans when we took a player out of the Sweden’s second division years ago in Ekman Larson. This is the scratch ticket of the draft. Question is do you want the Coyotes to be the team that takes the gamble?
5. D Heiskanen – Seems to be the consensus top rated D who rocketed to this slot after a great U18’s. Likely will go in Top 3 on draft day. If you are risk adverse, he’s the safer play to Makar.
6. C Glass – Playmaking 2nd line C. The Mark Schiefle comparisons are why I slotted him here.
7. RW Tippett- First line potential. Home run swing. Fantastic shot, great speed.
8. D Liljegren – A year ago this player was thought as a first overall challenger. Kid can skate. It’s worth the price of admission. If his hockey IQ returns to the same level that it showed a year ago, we could regret passing on this kid.
9. C Pettersson – He’s small but he put up points at an age and size that he wasn’t supposed to. I don’t think this would go unnoticed by out scouts and by Chayka’s analytics group.
10. C Midelstadt – Playmaking 2nd line C. You have to believe that he will leave the NCAA within 2 years or else you drop him like a stone (8-10 spots) on your list.
11. RW Kostin – Injury plagued, Russian enigma with production issues when he did play. And yet he could potentially go in Top 10 based primarily on the Ivan Hlinka tournament where he absolutely dominated.
12. C Rasmussen – I tried to find a way to keep this kid in the top 10. I really did. I view Rasmussen as the permanent solution to the third line for a decade. A bull on the PP who will pot 20 goals per year from the slot banking in sweet feeds from the abundance of playmakers (Domi, Keller, Strome, etc.) who are already in the organization. That being said, I’m talking about a 3C and I just couldn’t justify it at 7 when I looked at the other names. I gave it the College try though.
13. C/RW Necas – 2nd line C who disappointed at U18’s.
14. C Suzuki – Small 2nd line C.
15. LW Vesalainen – I thought he was great at the U18’s where he was finally playing amongst his peers. Showed first line potential.
16. RW Tolvanen – A year ago I thought this guy was a lock for the Top 10. Great shot.
17. C Poehling – Struggled offensively as a true NCAA freshmen but produced at the U18’s.
18. D Cal Foote – Big D always command a premium. If he can also provide offense then he should slot in this range.
19. C Thomas – I love London’s system and history of developing players.
20. D Valimaki – Good offensive D.
21. RW Yamamoto – Great speed and skill.
22. RW Robertson – Feet may be an issue but that’s why we hired a skating coach. This could be another Christian Fischer type selection.
23. G Ottinger – Top rated G. Long-term solution for our future on the next pressing need. If you are confident this particular goaltender will be there at our 2nd round pick you take him then. If not, you either have to drop down a slot or two (and pick up another pick) and/or hold your nose and make the pick.