2017 Draft Discussion - Part Deux

[rt]

Note: "1sts" = 11-30. Score = rt's subjective "value"

2002 1sts: Ward, Toivonen
2002 3rds: all crap
2002 score: 1-0 (1sts)

2003 1sts: none taken
2003 3rds: all crap
2003 score: 0-0

2004 1sts: Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider
2004 3rds: Greiss
2004 score: 2-1 (1sts)

2005 1sts: Rask
2005 3rds: Quick, Bishop
2005 score: 2-0 (3rds)

2006 1sts: Bernier, Helenius, Varlamov, Irving
2006 3rds: Mason
2006 score: 2-1 (1sts)

Halfway score: 5-4 (1sts)
Halfway haul:
1sts:Ward, Dubnyk, Schneider, Bernier, Varlamov
3rds: Greiss, Quick, Bishop, Mason
Takeaway: That's a damn close heat. What do we call that? A tie?

2007 1sts: Nada
2007 3rds: Crap
2007 score: Zilch

2008 1sts: Pickard, McCollum
2008 3rds: Crap
2008 score: Zilch

2009 1sts: None
2009 3rds: Anders Nilsson
2009 score: 0-1(3rds)

2010 1sts: Campbell, Visentin
2010 3rds: Crap
2010 score: Zilch

2011 1sts: None
2011 3rds: Crap
2011 score: Zilch

Final Score: 5-5
1sts List: Ward, Dubnyk, Schneider, Bernier, Varlamov
3rds List: Greiss, Quick, Bishop, Mason, Nilsson
Winner: Tie

So there's about one useful NHL goalie taken 11-30 every 2nd year. And there's about one useful NHL goalie taken in the 3rd round every 2nd year.

 

[Puck possession wins]

I think Oettinger is worth a look, otherwise drafting a goalie is voodoo.

Wish there was a way we could pry Tyler Parsons from Calgary. He went into God mode versus Windsor and Erie in the OHL playoff this year.

Also, I think I remember Chayka saying earlier this year something about using a late 1st on a goalie? I don't remember the exact article but is was something to the effect of finding the next Vasilevskiy

 

[IPreferPi]

Also, I think I remember Chayka saying earlier this year something about using a late 1st on a goalie? I don't remember the exact article but is was something to the effect of finding the next Vasilevskiy

Chayka was talking about obtaining quality players from draft picks acquired at the trade deadline, not so much about drafting a goalie in the 1st.

Chayka recalled on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM’s Doug and Wolf on Thursday how he read that Kyle Quincey was traded by the Lighting to the Detroit Red Wings for a first-round pick. That pick the Lighting received in the 2012 trade turned into Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is quickly being consider as one of the best young goaltenders in the league.

It’s that same luck that Chayka hopes to get after his latest trade sent Martin Hanzal, Ryan White and a fourth-round pick in this year’s NHL Draft to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Grayson Downing and the Wild’s first-round pick in this year’s draft, a second-round pick in 2018 and a conditional fourth-round pick in 2019.

“Everyone wants to proclaim winners and losers on the instant analysis on deadline day,” Chayka said. “We will see what happens with our picks. We will see what we are able to turn the picks into. We will see where the amateur scouts draft.”

http://arizonasports.com/story/1039...-that-tampa-bay-had-in-selecting-vasilevskiy/

 

[Ebb]

So, out of curiosity, I went through the goalies taken in the 2nd round:

2002 - Deslauriers (62 NHL games) | Stephan (11 NHL games) | Harding (151 NHL games) | LeNeveu (22 NHL games) | Daigneault (0 NHL games)

2003 - Crawford (383+ NHL games) | Howard (401+ NHL games)

2004 - Shantz (0 NHL games) | Peters (83+? NHL games)

2005 - Plante (0 NHL games) | Frazee (1 NHL games) | Pavelec (379+ NHL games) | Pelletier (0 NHL games)

2006 - Neuvirth (228+ NHL games) | Enroth (153+ NHL games)

2007 - Gistedt (0 NHL games) | Lafleur (0 NHL games) | Cann (0 NHL games) | J. Smith (10+? NHL games)

2008 - Markstrom (109+ NHL games) | Allen (160+ NHL games) | Beskorowany (0 NHL games) | Delmas (0 NHL games)

2009 - Koskinen (4 NHL games) | Lehner (166+ NHL games)

2010 - Pickard (86+ NHL games) | Simpson (1 NHL games)

2011 - Hellberg (4+? NHL games) | J. Gibson (118+ NHL games) | C. Gibson (4+? NHL games)

2012 - Dansk (0+? NHL games) | Stolarz (7+? NHL games)​

With the above in mind, I wouldn't mind possibly moving down or (preferably) adding an additional 2nd round pick if there are still decent goalies left (which there should be).

 

[Heldig]

I always advocate for best player available. Too often teams take the best goalie available higher than they should because they are drafting out of need.

Every team should draft a goalie in the mid rounds every year. Grab a goalie from the NCAA or out of Europe. Heck, I think "my" team should draft a Finnish or Swedish goalie every year.

Oettinger at 35? OK.

 

[hbk]

I always advocate for best player available. Too often teams take the best goalie available higher than they should because they are drafting out of need.

Every team should draft a goalie in the mid rounds every year. Grab a goalie from the NCAA or out of Europe. Heck, I think "my" team should draft a Finnish or Swedish goalie every year.

Oettinger at 35? OK.

I don't think Ottinger will be there at 35. He's going 1st round.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

yeah I think Ottinger goes first round, guy is a freak. 6'4 205 and incredibly athletic and just put up a stellar season in the NCAA.

 

[Ebb]

I don't think Ottinger will be there at 35. He's going 1st round.

Is there a BPA (or close to it) goalie worth #35 this season (if Oettinger goes in the first)?

I would prefer acquiring/using a late 2nd on a goalie this draft unless there's a promising one available (and worth drafting) at #35.

A few people have mentioned that the goalie options are decent this year, so any thoughts?

How many will go in the 1st (I'm guessing just Oettinger)? Who will draft him? How many goalies are worth 2nd round picks with the deep forwards/d-men this draft seems to have around that point as well. Which will be available (and worth drafting in the 3rd)? I'm thinking 1 (Oettinger) in the 1st, 3-4 in the second, and 3-4 in the 3rd. Which ones will be available for one of our 3rds if we don't acquire another 2nd? We're not really desperate for a goalie with Hill and Miska in the system at this point, but 4-5 seasons down the road we may be.

Current depth:

Smith (or replacement IF traded)
Domingue
Miska
Hill (he seems to have struggled a bit so I dropped him below Miska)
​

RFA Langhammer - I'm guessing we walk on him since he hasn't done well at the NHL, AHL, or ECHL levels.

 

[OriginalJetsCoyotes]

I don't think Ottinger will be there at 35. He's going 1st round.

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so.

So why not grab him at 23? Any other players going to make as much potential impact as him around that number? Doubt it.

 

[Ebb]

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so.

So why not grab him at 23? Any other players going to make as much potential impact as him around that number? Doubt it.

Well, I think it depends who is still available (or drops), but I'd still be weary of burning #23 on him. Perhaps if we acquired a late 1st, and Oettinger's still available, I'd roll the dice, but we desperately need a top-end (for his draft) RHF and RHD who could be in the NHL roster sooner than Oettinger

 

[XX]

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so.

So why not grab him at 23? Any other players going to make as much potential impact as him around that number? Doubt it.

The correlation between draft position and NHL success for forwards is very high
The correlation between draft position and NHL success for goalies isn't nearly as strong

 

[IPreferPi]

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so.

So why not grab him at 23? Any other players going to make as much potential impact as him around that number? Doubt it.

There are about 20-30 players (forwards and D) I'd take ahead of Oettinger at 23 who could very well be on our roster in two years instead of the 4-5 years Oettinger would take to gestate. The relationship between draft position and obtaining a starting NHL goalie is very weak.

 

[_Del_]

He probably will go in the first round. So what? There are lots of interesting goaltending prospects every year. The question should be 'what is the typical success rate of 1st round forwards compared to third round forwards?' Repeat that question for D and goaltenders. The difference in how many starters come from the first round or the third or below is not very high.

Draft position isn't a very good indicator of success for goaltenders at the NHL level, as shown by multiple statistics as above. A sample of starters shows a large percentage who were not 1st or 2nd round picks.
The percentage of top-line forwards who were drafted in the top two rounds is much higher, for example.

So my chances of getting say a starter AND a first line forward are much better if I take a forward first and goaltender later. My odds of getting a starter by taking a guy in the third or fourth isn't a lot less than taking a top guy. Development is too random.

 

[hbk]

Is there a BPA (or close to it) goalie worth #35 this season (if Oettinger goes in the first)?

I would prefer acquiring/using a late 2nd on a goalie this draft unless there's a promising one available (and worth drafting) at #35.

A few people have mentioned that the goalie options are decent this year, so any thoughts?

How many will go in the 1st (I'm guessing just Oettinger)? Who will draft him? How many goalies are worth 2nd round picks with the deep forwards/d-men this draft seems to have around that point as well. Which will be available (and worth drafting in the 3rd)? I'm thinking 1 (Oettinger) in the 1st, 3-4 in the second, and 3-4 in the 3rd. Which ones will be available for one of our 3rds if we don't acquire another 2nd? We're not really desperate for a goalie with Hill and Miska in the system at this point, but 4-5 seasons down the road we may be.

Current depth:

Smith (or replacement IF traded)
Domingue
Miska
Hill (he seems to have struggled a bit so I dropped him below Miska)
​

RFA Langhammer - I'm guessing we walk on him since he hasn't done well at the NHL, AHL, or ECHL levels.

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so.

So why not grab him at 23? Any other players going to make as much potential impact as him around that number? Doubt it.

This is a great draft for goalies. Fantastic depth but I think Ottinger is number 1 on most lists. Ottawa rumoured to be thinking about a G at 28.

There is a belief that Oetinger would rank in top 5-10 goalie prospects today. On a team with no clear successor in net it addresses a organizational need.

We have this debate ever draft and the math isn't pretty about goalies in the first round. I like Oettinger though. I wouldn't be upset if we pulled trigger at 23 or even if we could drop down 1-3 spots and pick up another asset and grab him there.

 

[IPreferPi]

On a team with no clear successor in net it addresses a organizational need.

A need that can be easier filled through free agency and/or trade compared to needs at forward (center) and D.

 

[_Del_]

Let's do a draft game this year for goalies. Every year everyone will take take two goalies in rounds three and four. We'll keep the thread for posterity and see if our third and fourth round picks are substantially worse than goalies taken in the first.
Then we'll ask ourselves if we'd trade 23ov for a third and fourth round pick to establish which path makes the most sense. Bonus points for everytime an NHL goaltender gets traded for less than a first round pick.

Then every year when someone suggests using our first for a goaltender, we can all say, "Hell no. Go read the goaltender game threads. "

 

[hbk]

A need that can be easier filled through free agency and/or trade compared to needs at forward (center) and D.

Organizational Priorities:

Center
RD
Goalie

i remember the time we had Aebischer as our 1G. It wasn't fun to be a fan.

 

[IPreferPi]

Organizational Priorities:

Center
RD
Goalie

i remember the time we had Aebischer as our 1G. It wasn't fun to be a fan.

I have no problems drafting a goalie this year. But use one of our thirds to do it. Not 23 or 35.

 

[XX]

i remember the time we had Aebischer as our 1G. It wasn't fun to be a fan.

How did Mike Smith come to the franchise? Bryzgalov? Domingue? Draft a goalie, by all means, but not early.

 

[OriginalJetsCoyotes]

You guys have a very different view of the talent level of the prospects around 23, in this years draft, than I do if you think he is with the NHL roster in 2-3 years.

 

[mouser]

Three years out is not unreasonable for a lot of picks in that range. Two more years in juniors and a full AHL season.

I agree two years is unlikely.

 

[IPreferPi]

You guys have a very different view of the talent level of the prospects around 23, in this years draft, than I do if you think he is with the NHL roster in 2-3 years.

Indeed I do. This draft is only weak at the top end. There's a lot of intriguing talent that can be had all the way through pick 90.

There is no getting around the fact that the odds of a forward or a defenseman taken with a late first or an early second becoming an NHL regular within 3 seasons are significantly higher than a goalie drafted at the same position.

 

[_Del_]

Odds of success with a skater in 2-3 years is much higher than a goalie's chances of becoming a starter in that time frame.

This draft's weakness is very overstated. But let's play along. Let's say prospects available at 23 are typically equivalent to a second in a given year.

2015 goalies in top 2 rounds with NHL time: 0 of 2
2015 2nd round skaters with NHL time: 9 (including Fischer, Aho, Carlo, Sprong)

2014 goalies in top two rounds with NHL time: 1 for 5 (1 game played, Nedoljkovik)
2014 2nd rnd skaters with NHL time: 5 (including Dvorak, Montour, Barbashev)

2013 goalies in top two rounds: 2 for 4 (1 game each)
2013 2nd round skaters: 19

 

[hbk]

How did Mike Smith come to the franchise? Bryzgalov? Domingue? Draft a goalie, by all means, but not early.

Yep. Full on outrage over n these boards when Smith was signed.

If you see a goalie on waivers with Bryz's upside let me know. How many other 1G's ever have been acquired via waivers btw?

As good as our prospect group is it lacks a top G prospect to round it out. I personally believe that for the right goalie I would use a late first or early second to draft a guy that the scouts believed had franchise or 1G starter upside. I don't see anyone at 23 who has top line upside. Solid group yes but it's the leftovers of the fourth or fifth tier of forward a D prospects.

 

[OriginalJetsCoyotes]

I don't want to hear anyone complain about our goalies this year if we aren't willing to reach a little for the best available goalie.

I can't see Oettinger getting past 34 let alone 78, I believe Vegas takes him at 34. We're not getting a top-end goalie through free agency and we're not getting a top-end goalie through a trade either, not without selling the farm. Unless you believe Chakya is some kind of voodoo magician.

It's not like we're struggling for talented forwards at this point and it's not like I'm suggesting we grab him at 7, its twenty-freakin-three. Potentially 2 years more? So what? Value in that position takes time and it's a gamble regardless of whom we choose.

We need goal scorers, not playmakers. Do you see any potential 30-50 goal scorers at 23? If it's just another playmaker, grab the goalie.

Regardless of our difference in opinions, I can't wait for draft day. The speculation is killing me.