Serious questions, what teams have out drafted the potato? Curious how everyone else stacks up.
Also - what sort of methodology are you using again? Draft based on points * NHL equivalency?
Well it depends on how you measure it of course. Using my measurement of NHL TOI of players taken by the team compared to TOI of players taken by potato, no teams have consistently outperformed it. Carolina is the best team since 2010 but even they are only at 84%.
Having said that, you might look at some of the players taken and evaluate things differently. This is obviously a crude metric and sells short certain players while overrating others. Obviously a player like Boeser is better than this metric would indicate, but I need to use
something. I am open to suggestions.
If you change the time-line to 2014-2017 then Boston comes close to out-performing, at 91%. PArt of the problem here though is over-crediting players who make the NHL early. Really it's just super disappointing. Every team is dogshit. Vancouver has been less dogshit than they were previously but still nothing special and it is mostly because of crediting them with players who they have already traded away (McCann, Forsling) or otherwise lost (Tryamkin.)
As for the methodology, it is simply points/game in their draft year, with a few multipliers:
1) League quality, which is premised upon NHLe but tweaked by my own research and indexed against OHL rather than NHL.
2) Draft year, where I discount players in their second, third, fourth drafts.
3) Height, which is a stronger multiplier for defensemen than forwards.
If you are curious therefore about why it took a player, it can be explained by those 3 things. The model likes players who put up points in strong leagues. David Pastrnak ranked 7th in the 2014 draft, and Pettersson was #1 last year.
If you are looking for misses, Robin Kovacs really f***ed up my 2015 draft. Ranked 12th and looks like a complete write-off. The thing is that this system doesn't care about consensus at all. If will take a player unranked by consensus in the first round if it wants to, so you can do even better by imparting some more intelligence and not taking players who you know will be available later. I am thinking of looking into this next.