no they didn’t. you should stop making shit up
2017/2018 Management Discussion | NEW MOD WARNING IN OP AS OF 5/20/18
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no they didn’t. you should stop making shit up
Melvin
21/12/05
How is it a lame come back? They were 200:1 before the season started. If it was so obvious you could have put $10 on them and made 2 grand. Are you so broke you can't afford $10 or are you full of shit about it being so obvious?
drax0s
Registered User
Are you talking about this apparent Gilman quote?
peen said:
Because the follow up to that was a bunch of people pointing out that was actually Eric Crawford when asked who the other team interested in Bieksa was to which peen admitted he misheard.
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Is this a yes to the bet? If 500 is too much let’s do 100 to me, same bet as pauser but over the next 3 years
Melvin
21/12/05
Hmm. Pretty easy to have a fluke year and sneak into the playoffs.
Would you give 2:1? What would you give?
Yeah coldsteel I'm in on that bet if you want another taker. 2:1 Canucks won't make it next year. You will be getting a nice little pay day if they do!
Brock Boeser Laser Show
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Yes.
It takes 95-96 points most years to make the playoffs in the west. This team isn't close to being a 95-96 team and I don't see how this team goes from a 70-75 point team to 95 point team given the current organizational landscape.
Who is this team going to be better than over the next few years? There is a massive gap between the canucks and the bubble playoff team in the west. Even if you want to wear rose coloured glasses and pretend every young player somehow reaches their potential it's barely making a dent in the gap between the current canucks and the 7th or 8th best teams in the west. The players you draft in 2018 and 2019 aren't likely to make a significant impact for another 3-5 years so im not sure how you can feel so confident in the canucks making the playoffs anytime soon.
Fire Benning
diaper filled piss baby
Anyone want to take a 13:1 bet that Jim Benning won't make a stupid move this summer.
Melvin
21/12/05
So the 500 one or 100 one? And it’s 3 years starting this upcoming season.
Melvin
21/12/05
I'll take it at 500 if we build in provisions about Benning being fired.
I don't want benning fired next seasons and still lose because we made the playoffs under his successor two years later.
Brock Boeser Laser Show
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10-1 Odds if Benning is here the full 3 years
2-1 Odds if Benning gets canned within the next 2 years.
I'm confident this team isn't making the playoffs again with Benning at the helm. Less confident if he's replaced by someone half decent that knows what they are doing.
Melvin
21/12/05
This is really sad.
I wasn't trying to discredit anyone. I wanted to set a baseline for what drafting would look like if you took players based on very simple criteria. Only when you have a baseline can you then evaluate how someone is doing. I have done drafts going back to 2010; this far pre-dates Benning. The drafts from 2010-2013 absolutely kill the Canucks, before Benning even joined.
You have dismissed it out of hand because you have already decided upon your conclusions with 0% research. This is exceptionally poor reasoning.
If anyone wants to give me some criticism into where I have erred I would be more than happy to respond, but to accuse me of "doctoring" when you didn't even read it because you decided before reading it that it must be faulty, that says nothing positive about you as a critical thinker.
drax0s
Registered User
Serious questions, what teams have out drafted the potato? Curious how everyone else stacks up.
Also - what sort of methodology are you using again? Draft based on points * NHL equivalency?
Pastor Of Muppetz
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Maybe you could put up your ‘potato GM’ data for the draft this June?..before the draft..obviously.
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Melvin
21/12/05
Serious questions, what teams have out drafted the potato? Curious how everyone else stacks up.
Also - what sort of methodology are you using again? Draft based on points * NHL equivalency?
Well it depends on how you measure it of course. Using my measurement of NHL TOI of players taken by the team compared to TOI of players taken by potato, no teams have consistently outperformed it. Carolina is the best team since 2010 but even they are only at 84%.
Having said that, you might look at some of the players taken and evaluate things differently. This is obviously a crude metric and sells short certain players while overrating others. Obviously a player like Boeser is better than this metric would indicate, but I need to use something. I am open to suggestions.
If you change the time-line to 2014-2017 then Boston comes close to out-performing, at 91%. PArt of the problem here though is over-crediting players who make the NHL early. Really it's just super disappointing. Every team is dogshit. Vancouver has been less dogshit than they were previously but still nothing special and it is mostly because of crediting them with players who they have already traded away (McCann, Forsling) or otherwise lost (Tryamkin.)
As for the methodology, it is simply points/game in their draft year, with a few multipliers:
1) League quality, which is premised upon NHLe but tweaked by my own research and indexed against OHL rather than NHL.
2) Draft year, where I discount players in their second, third, fourth drafts.
3) Height, which is a stronger multiplier for defensemen than forwards.
If you are curious therefore about why it took a player, it can be explained by those 3 things. The model likes players who put up points in strong leagues. David Pastrnak ranked 7th in the 2014 draft, and Pettersson was #1 last year.
If you are looking for misses, Robin Kovacs really f***ed up my 2015 draft. Ranked 12th and looks like a complete write-off. The thing is that this system doesn't care about consensus at all. If will take a player unranked by consensus in the first round if it wants to, so you can do even better by imparting some more intelligence and not taking players who you know will be available later. I am thinking of looking into this next.
Melvin
21/12/05
I definitely will. I will also post its Canuck picks immediately after the draft.
Melvin
21/12/05
If anyone is curious about the league equivalencies, it is basically because I don't think NHLe sufficiently accounts for the play of young players in pro leagues. Its purpose is to translate a season from one league to the NHL but it should be pretty clear that there is a difference between Linden Vey putting up points in these leagues vs an 18 year old doing the same. It seems like even very good teenagers basically get no icetime in these leagues so their points are often suppressed. We see this when a guy like Jasek comes to the AHL and puts up better numbers in an otherwise stronger league because he now gets actual playing time.
For me it is less about "translating" the season and more about answering the question -- what are the odds of a player with these stats drafted from this league making it, compared to a player with the same stats in a different league. As a for example, NHLe has the SHL at .58 and the OHL at .30, so basically saying it is twice as strong. But a player with 0.5 P/GP in the SHL is more than twice as likely to make the NHL than a player putting up 0.5 P/GP in the OHL, and this is mostly because of the age reasons. By my math, it is closer to four times. By only looking at draft-eligible players I get different factors, although I still use NHLe as a sanity check and I use it outright for the different college divisions about which I have insufficient data.
Anyway, this is all pretty off-topic, just thought some people might be curious. Back to Jim Benning.
For me it is less about "translating" the season and more about answering the question -- what are the odds of a player with these stats drafted from this league making it, compared to a player with the same stats in a different league. As a for example, NHLe has the SHL at .58 and the OHL at .30, so basically saying it is twice as strong. But a player with 0.5 P/GP in the SHL is more than twice as likely to make the NHL than a player putting up 0.5 P/GP in the OHL, and this is mostly because of the age reasons. By my math, it is closer to four times. By only looking at draft-eligible players I get different factors, although I still use NHLe as a sanity check and I use it outright for the different college divisions about which I have insufficient data.
Anyway, this is all pretty off-topic, just thought some people might be curious. Back to Jim Benning.
Peen
Rejoicing in a Benning-free world
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Dab
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y2kcanucks
Le Sex God
You know management is bad when they go over the cap (due to performance bonuses) despite having one of the worst teams in the league.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
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