Prospect Info: 2017-18 Prospects Thread (CHL, NCAA, Junior A, Europe)

[henchman21]

So then you think McAvoy doesn't have #1D potential either right? Makar is built very similarly. Makar clearly grew this year, and is close to, if not over 6'0". McAvoy may end up having 5-7 lbs on him in the NHL. That's simply not enough to say one guy has #1 potential and the other does not.

First off, I said build and current holes in his game. McAvoy is a much different style of defender than Makar, and has always had a much more well rounded game. The holes in McAvoy's game were never really there. People doubted his ultimate upside in his draft year, but he was a player playing at a pretty high level and controlling the game (his freshman season was damn good, one of the better I'd seen from a draft eligible kid). I was a big tire pumper of his and continue to be. The kid is very good in all facets of the game and always has been. On the build... they are VERY different. McAvoy is a touch over 6' and Makar is a touch shorter than 6', but that is where the similarities end. McAvoy has that pancake frame like Ray Bourque had. He's gonna be a 215-220 lb defender long term. Makar doesn't have that frame and should never put on nearly that much weight. It would hurt what makes him unique.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The thing Makar has over Ghost and Barrie IMO is his skating. I haven't seen a player move as well laterally both with and without the puck in a very long time. We're all blown away with how good Girard is when it comes to his lateral movement... Makar is on another level to Girard.


His skating alone is going to carry him a long way I think. Obviously the expectations of him being a #1 are high and pretty much everything is going to have to go right with him to reach that level... But I think if there's a guy capable of doing it, Makar is the guy.


EDIT: Not to mention I suspect Makar has at least an inch and possibly 2 inches on Barrie/Ghost. He was 5"11.25 at the combine and to me he looks bigger then that now. I suspect he's a little over 6" now and both Ghost and Barrie are below 5"11.

 

[henchman21]

EDIT: Not to mention I suspect Makar has at least an inch and possibly 2 inches on Barrie/Ghost. He was 5"11.25 at the combine and to me he looks bigger then that now. I suspect he's a little over 6" now and both Ghost and Barrie are below 5"11.

So just call it Yandle then.

Stylistically they all fit. Yeah nobody is perfectly alike in any comparison... but the odds of Makar becoming a Yandle/Barrie/Ghost level defender is much higher than him becoming a Keith. If Makar is to become a Keith though, his development needs to go well.

 

[5280]

I didn't realize Makar was that tall.

 

[Freudian]

It's easy to get caught up in this as a false choice, where he has to stay in college to round out his game or go pro. Realistically he will develop his two way game wherever he is. It comes with age, practice and game experience.

He might be overwhelmed by NHL so if AHL time isn't attractive to him, staying in college isn't a bad option. Just up to him and the Avs to be honest with where he is as a hockey player right now.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

So just call it Yandle then.

Stylistically they all fit. Yeah nobody is perfectly alike in any comparison... but the odds of Makar becoming a Yandle/Barrie/Ghost level defender is much higher than him becoming a Keith. If Makar is to become a Keith though, his development needs to go well.

True Yandle fits the comparison as well.

But I think it's a decently fair assessment at least in Barries case, to say that size is a big contributing factor holding him back from being a #1D in the NHL. His offensive game is quite clearly elite, but his defensive game isn't on the same level and I think his size plays into that a lot. Because he thinks the game fairly well, is a good skater, has decent gap control and isn't a wanderer in the defensive zone. But his lack of size is what stops his defensive game from being able to take that next level.

At least with Makar, size wont be nearly as big of a factor as he has a couple inches at least on Barrie.



I really think Makar can be a #1D. But I wouldn't be disappointed or call the pick a failure if he ends up being another Barrie/Ghost/Yandle type of Dman either. That's obviously still an exceptional player and should be looked at as a successful use of the #4 pick if that's the player we end up with. Anything more is just gravy.

 

[henchman21]

I didn't realize Makar was that tall.

I don't think he is over 6' but he will likely be listed as 6' in the NHL.

 

[5280]

I don't think he is over 6' but he will likely be listed as 6' in the NHL.

For some reason I had him at like 5'8" in my brain. Then I started reading that he was almost 6'.........That's not too bad at all for this day and age.

If he stays in college next year we can still sign him after that and he could get some time in the AHL and be a call-up for the playoffs next year, right? If so I'm not too concerned about this decision. I'm always a little scared some looney journeyman in the A is going to put a legitimate prospect of ours in the hospital ala Hishon, so the less time spent down there the better for me.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

For some reason I had him at like 5'8" in my brain. Then I started reading that he was almost 6'.........That's not too bad at all for this day and age.

Yep. 5'11.25 at the combine. He was only 18 then as well, I definitely think he's grown roughly an inch or so since then.

Pictures are hard to judge because of the angles they're taken, stances of players, etc. But there's that picture of him and Fabbro standing next to each other at the WJC where they look basically the same height and I believe Fabbro measured in at 6'0.5 at his combine.


The NHL always seems to add 1-2 inches to a players height as well once they make the league I think he'll end up being listed as either 6'0, or 6'1.

 

[Foppa2118]

First off, I said build and current holes in his game. McAvoy is a much different style of defender than Makar, and has always had a much more well rounded game. The holes in McAvoy's game were never really there. People doubted his ultimate upside in his draft year, but he was a player playing at a pretty high level and controlling the game (his freshman season was damn good, one of the better I'd seen from a draft eligible kid). I was a big tire pumper of his and continue to be. The kid is very good in all facets of the game and always has been. On the build... they are VERY different. McAvoy is a touch over 6' and Makar is a touch shorter than 6', but that is where the similarities end. McAvoy has that pancake frame like Ray Bourque had. He's gonna be a 215-220 lb defender long term. Makar doesn't have that frame and should never put on nearly that much weight. It would hurt what makes him unique.

Any current holes in Makar's game have no relevance on #1D potential, unless you think he won't fix them. Every young D man has holes in their game. Plenty of #1D men had them at his age. The only thing that matters is if he can continue to round out his game.

I think the holes in his game are overblown anyway. One of the biggest things with his game not working as well for UMASS, is that he tries to make plays that his teammates aren't capable of pulling off. He makes passes that more talented teammates could feed off, that miss the mark, or aren't handled well. Personally I don't want him to adjust to his less talented teammates, I want him continuing to make those plays, because a lot of them will work when he's on the ice with MacKinnon, Rantanen, Jost, Landy, Girard, etc.

I'm not sure Makar is a shorter than 6'0" either. There are multiple photos to judge of him standing next to players 6'0" or bigger, and he's just as tall. He's not a lanky 6'0." McAvoy may be a bit more filled out, but it's not a huge difference. Makar is built pretty well. He's already quite strong for his age.

McAvoy was 199 lbs at his draft combine. He's listed at 207 lbs now at 20 years old. Unless he adds fat, him being 215-220lbs seems a little unrealistic. These guys get pretty close to their mature playing weight at around 20 now. Maybe he's under listed though who knows. I'd say 210 lbs is more realistic. About 5 lbs more than what I think Makar will be.

I think Makar will probably end up around 6'0.5" or a tad taller, and easily could end up rounded up to 6'1" in listings. Probably be around 200-205lbs. He's already close to 200lbs at 19.

Not saying he'll be as good as these guys, just pointing out their measurements, in relation to #1 potential. Some of these guys aren't viewed as #1's anymore, but they were at one point, and others had consensus #1 potential.

Drew Doughty - 6'1" 200lbs
Erik Karlsson - 6'0" 191 lbs
Duncan Keith - 6'1" 191 lbs
Roman Josi - 6'1" 201 lbs
Mark Giordano - 6'0" 198 lbs
Marc Edouard Vlassic - 6'1" 205 lbs
P.K. Subban - 6'0" 210 lbs
TJ Brodie - 6'1" 182 lbs
Kris Letting - 6'0" 201 lbs
Charlie McAvoy - 6'0" 207 lbs
Ivan Provorov - 6'1" 201 lbs

For the record, I'm fine with Makar returning to the NCAA, if that's what happens. I think AHL would have been the best route, but I always like defenseman to marinate at lower levels, even the high draft picks.

 

[McMetal]

But I think it's a decently fair assessment at least in Barries case, to say that size is a big contributing factor holding him back from being a #1D in the NHL. His offensive game is quite clearly elite, but his defensive game isn't on the same level and I think his size plays into that a lot. Because he thinks the game fairly well, is a good skater, has decent gap control and isn't a wanderer in the defensive zone. But his lack of size is what stops his defensive game from being able to take that next level.

Barrie's defensive woes are less about size and more about his reads and positioning. He makes great decisions with the puck; less so without it. My concerns for Makar are pretty similar. He is doing better than I was afraid he might in that regard, and has progressed through the season as well. Until his development stops or stagnates, we can at least hope to get a legit top pair D out of him. As of right now, no, I don't see it, but if he keeps improving it's possible.

 

[Foppa2118]

Yep. 5'11.25 at the combine. He was only 18 then as well, I definitely think he's grown roughly an inch or so since then.

Pictures are hard to judge because of the angles they're taken, stances of players, etc. But there's that picture of him and Fabbro standing next to each other at the WJC where they look basically the same height and I believe Fabbro measured in at 6'0.5 at his combine.


The NHL always seems to add 1-2 inches to a players height as well once they make the league I think he'll end up being listed as either 6'0, or 6'1.

Lower right photo. A photo isn't conclusive evidence, but it's enough to put holes in the "he's not big enough" idea. Fabbro was listed at 6'0.5" at the 2016 draft combine, and is listed at 6'1" now.

Certainly possible for Makar to end up being listed at a rounded up 6'1". They won't have to round up to 6'0" he's already that tall.

 

[Hasbro]

Yep. 5'11.25 at the combine. He was only 18 then as well, I definitely think he's grown roughly an inch or so since then.

Pictures are hard to judge because of the angles they're taken, stances of players, etc. But there's that picture of him and Fabbro standing next to each other at the WJC where they look basically the same height and I believe Fabbro measured in at 6'0.5 at his combine.


The NHL always seems to add 1-2 inches to a players height as well once they make the league I think he'll end up being listed as either 6'0, or 6'1.

How can we be sure he isn't shrinking?

 

[Murzu]

If Makar becomes a Yandle caliber player I'm a happy Murzu.

 

[Balthazar]

None of Yandle, Barrie or Ghost had Makar's talent at the same age. I don't like comparisons like that.

 

[avsfan09]

I know we're all discussing Makar and trying to be even keeled and such but I just watched a full shift by shift of Meloche and came away very impressed.

He has much better puck skill than I thought and jumps up into the play quite often which surprised me. Looks like he's going to be very strong strength wise, seems to be a very imposing physical presence in the corners and for the most part is composed defensively. Although I saw one shift where he chased a player way out of position. (Seemed a little frustrated and tried to do too much)

He gets forgotten but I don't see what he's missing skill wise to become a capable top pairing guy even if that's his ceiling.

 

[S E P H]

None of Yandle, Barrie or Ghost had Makar's talent at the same age. I don't like comparisons like that.

You're setting yourself up for failure to believe in this way. Yandle might suck now, I haven't really been paying attention to him, but during his prime he was a borderline #2-#3 defender for me IMO. I don't think that is a bad comparison like that, Makar is faster and better athletic/dynamic, but it would be hard to say that Cale has more cerebral intelligence over Keith at this point of time. He might surpass him one day by getting more experience, just can't see him surpassing D. Keith, Josi, nor Karlsson for that matter. While we're talking about this, just to set the record straight, I would consider it a successful pick if he became a *faster* version of Tyson Barrie. It still wouldn't be my favourite as what Pettersson is building upon, but in a weaker draft with a ton of really raw and crapshoot players Avs could have done worst.

 

[cgf]

I know we're all discussing Makar and trying to be even keeled and such but I just watched a full shift by shift of Meloche and came away very impressed.

He has much better puck skill than I thought and jumps up into the play quite often which surprised me. Looks like he's going to be very strong strength wise, seems to be a very imposing physical presence in the corners and for the most part is composed defensively. Although I saw one shift where he chased a player way out of position. (Seemed a little frustrated and tried to do too much)

He gets forgotten but I don't see what he's missing skill wise to become a capable top pairing guy even if that's his ceiling.

Preach!

 

[CobraAcesS]

I see the myth that Makar is a high risk OFD who has defense as a weakness still lives.

 

[Balthazar]

You're setting yourself up for failure to believe in this way. Yandle might suck now, I haven't really been paying attention to him, but during his prime he was a borderline #2-#3 defender for me IMO. I don't think that is a bad comparison like that, Makar is faster and better athletic/dynamic, but it would be hard to say that Cale has more cerebral intelligence over Keith at this point of time. He might surpass him one day by getting more experience, just can't see him surpassing D. Keith, Josi, nor Karlsson for that matter. While we're talking about this, just to set the record straight, I would consider it a successful pick if he became a *faster* version of Tyson Barrie. It still wouldn't be my favourite as what Pettersson is building upon, but in a weaker draft with a ton of really raw and crapshoot players Avs could have done worst.

We don't know the future. What we do know though, is none of these guys were as good as Makar at the same age. There's a reason why Makar was the 4th OA pick and the others were 2nd and 4th rounders.

 

[Hasbro]

Avalanche #6 on Hockey News Future Watch. Makar #4

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

Avalanche #6 on Hockey News Future Watch. Makar #4

It's interesting how they put it together. They specifically mention that they put the specific team lists together with help from the scouts. So there's input from each team's scouts but THN seems like they do most of the legwork in putting it all together or they wouldn't refer to the NHL scouts input as just help. If these rankings/lists were done with the majority of work coming from NHL scouts they'd go the Bobby Mac route of saying this is coming from the scouts.

Anyways the Avs rankings are as follows:
1. Cale Makar
2. Connor Timmins
3. Vladislav Kamenev
4. AJ Greer
5. Shane Bowers
6. Spencer Martin
7. Nicolas Meloche
8. Andrei Mironov
9. Ty Lewis
10. Adam Werner

Apart from Makar, Timmins also made the Top 100 at 28th overall. This list does though lead into a discussion I'd be curious in seeing about what to do next season regarding the goalie depth in the AHL. Spencer Martin is the obvious candidate to take up at least one spot there though next season will be the definition of do or die for him. I'm personally starting to become concerned with his lack of ability to adapt his game properly to succeed at the AHL level. If you want to know what it looks like watch Petr Mrazek. All the physical gifts in the world and is currently struggling because he can't adapt his game. And these struggles are showing through the results he's posting especially beside Ville Husso who like Martin got off to a good start in their first pro NA year (albeit small sample size) but has kept his momentum going turning into one of the best goalies in the league while Martin is on the slide for the 2nd straight season.

If we run on the assumption that the Avs aren't quite ready to cut bait yet we're looking at one new goalie (at least) in the AHL next year. We all know my preferences to be brought in are Merrick Madsen and Cale Morris (or maybe a cheap trade for Anthony Stolarz). As we all know we also have in-house options with Petr Kvaca and Adam Werner. I know there's been a fair amount of hype for Kvaca as he tore up the Czech2 league last year and is doing well again this year. With three years left to sign him though I'd wait on him, specifically to see what he can do at the Czech Elite level. Werner is interesting and has made the best case for an ELC. His results in terms of SV% have taken a significant jump from the start to the end of the season. The question is though do the Avs run with Martin/Werner as their goalies in the AHL? I'd say that's highly unlikely not to mention risky.

What I wouldn't be opposed to is signing him then bringing him over to the ECHL like what the Senators have done with Marcus Hogberg. I think the best option though (if the Avs do want to sign him) is sign him then loan him back to Sweden. European leagues are definitely a weakness of mine though so I have no idea just what Werner's success is worth, a pat on the back or a spot in the AHL.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

I see the myth that Makar is a high risk OFD who has defense as a weakness still lives.

Considering his coach has come out and said he needs to work more on his play without the puck in order to become a great player in college, I can't see how his defensive play can be called a strength.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Considering his coach has come out and said he needs to work more on his play without the puck in order to become a great player in college, I can't see how his defensive play can be called a strength.

It is possible for it to not be a strength or a weakness.

 

[Hasbro]

It is possible for it to not be a strength or a weakness.

A stengness?