NCAA: 2017-18 Playoff/New Years Six Watch

[HoseEmDown]

Everyone only schedules one other ‘good’ power 5. Fresno State for a Group of 5 is actually a good opponent too. You can’t control what your opponents do.

Why does Alabama get a pass on their schedule but not UCF? Both have beaten 6 FBS teams with a .500 record or better. Both have two victories over top 25 in the coaches poll with Memphis being the highest ranked. Hell Wisconsin only has 6 wins over FBS schools with a .500 or better record and just 1 in the top 25. UCF can't control it's opponents and help that Maryland tanked after they throttled them and the Georgia Tech game was cancelled.

 

[GKJ]

Why does Alabama get a pass on their schedule but not UCF? Both have beaten 6 FBS teams with a .500 record or better. Both have two victories over top 25 in the coaches poll with Memphis being the highest ranked. Hell Wisconsin only has 6 wins over FBS schools with a .500 or better record and just 1 in the top 25. UCF can't control it's opponents and help that Maryland tanked after they throttled them and the Georgia Tech game was cancelled.

Because Alabama is Alabama and UCF is UCF.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Because Alabama is Alabama and UCF is UCF.

Clearly and also why a 2 loss Ohio State has a better shot than UCF, name recognition. It's sad when you prove yourself on the field but get snubbed because of the patch on the shoulder or the name on the helmet.

 

[GKJ]

Clearly and also why a 2 loss Ohio State has a better shot than UCF, name recognition. It's sad when you prove yourself on the field but get snubbed because of the patch on the shoulder or the name on the helmet.

UCF just doesn’t have the opponents. I’m sure they deserve a shot, but if your one of these group of 5 schools, it usually takes a couple years. How long did it take Boise before they got taken seriously?

 

[rangerssharks414]

Alabama is still the co-favorite.

 

[Cody Webster]

Where's UCF?

 

[HoseEmDown]

UCF just doesn’t have the opponents. I’m sure they deserve a shot, but if your one of these group of 5 schools, it usually takes a couple years. How long did it take Boise before they got taken seriously?

UCF has been a bowl team 5 of the last 6 years, we were 1st or tied for 1st in our conference 4 of those years. We won a NY6 bowl and have a top 10 finish. But what everyone looks at is that other season in that mix where we went 0-12, so we have that stink on us. We have top 25 wins but no big names as Baylor isn't considered a name school and AAC gets no respect. Since we have that G5 label the perception is we play crap teams week in week out but that's just not true.

 

[GKJ]

UCF has been a bowl team 5 of the last 6 years, we were 1st or tied for 1st in our conference 4 of those years. We won a NY6 bowl and have a top 10 finish. But what everyone looks at is that other season in that mix where we went 0-12, so we have that stink on us. We have top 25 wins but no big names as Baylor isn't considered a name school and AAC gets no respect. Since we have that G5 label the perception is we play crap teams week in week out but that's just not true.

This is only your first good year. They haven’t built up enough of a resume. And of Frost leaves, that’ll take a hit.

 

[HoseEmDown]

This is only your first good year. They haven’t built up enough of a resume. And of Frost leaves, that’ll take a hit.

we went 13-1 and finished top 10 a few years ago, this isn't our first good year. We've been ranked several other seasons too. We just haven't been a perennial top 25 team.

 

[GKJ]

we went 13-1 and finished top 10 a few years ago, this isn't our first good year. We've been ranked several other seasons too. We just haven't been a perennial top 25 team.

That’s where you need to be though.

 

[HoseEmDown]

That’s where you need to be though.

The problem is that if you're G5 and lose 1 game you fall out of the rankings, you can be P5 with 4 loses and still be ranked. It's just an unfair system to non P5 schools.

 

[GKJ]

The problem is that if you're G5 and lose 1 game you fall out of the rankings, you can be P5 with 4 loses and still be ranked. It's just an unfair system to non P5 schools.

That's the system we ended up with after realignment. UCF couldn't land in a power 5 conference, and the then-Big East got relegated to mid-major.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

My hunches based on the following scenarios and assuming Clemson wins tonight....

Clemson gets in if they beat Miami.
Wisconsin gets in if they beat Ohio State.
Oklahoma gets in if they beat TCU.
Georgia gets in if they beat Auburn.
Auburn gets in if they beat Georgia.
Alabama gets in if Clemson, Wisconsin, or Oklahoma lose.
Miami gets in if they beat Clemson and Wisconsin or Oklahoma lose.
Ohio State gets in if they beat Wisconsin and both Clemson and Oklahoma lose.

Nobody else can get in, not even TCU if they beat Oklahoma and both Wisconsin and Clemson lose (SEC/Big Ten/ACC champs + Alabama get in ahead of them imho).

Standing by all of this. Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Auburn control their destinies. If they win, they get in. Alabama needs 1 of the 3 non-SEC teams to stumble, Miami needs to win and for either Wisconsin or Oklahoma to lose, and the longest shot Ohio State needs to win and for both Clemson and Oklahoma to lose.

 

[HoseEmDown]

That's the system we ended up with after realignment. UCF couldn't land in a power 5 conference, and the then-Big East got relegated to mid-major.

Oh I know but the fact that G5 schools have no margin of error. They get no credit for being good unless they beat a "name team". A P5 school can lose their 1st game of the year and remain ranked while a G5 has to be 5-0 before they get ranked. The P5 bias is just so strong it hurts the game a bit.

 

[Cody Webster]

Standing by all of this. Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Auburn control their destinies. If they win, they get in. Alabama needs 1 of the 3 non-SEC teams to stumble, Miami needs to win and for one either Wisconsin or Oklahoma to lose, and the longest shot Ohio State needs to win for for both Clemson and Oklahoma to lose.

Miami is in if they win.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Eh, I think they'll remember their loss to Pittsburgh more so than anything else when comparing them to Alabama. Honestly think that they need Wisconsin or Oklahoma to lose as well to get in. If not, they'll be #5.

 

[Halladay]

Eh, I think they'll remember their loss to Pittsburgh more so than anything else when comparing them to Alabama. Honestly think that they need Wisconsin or Oklahoma to lose as well to get in. If not, they'll be #5.

Ohio State lost by 14 at home to a 6-6 Virginia Tech team. Didn't stop them from making it in. Win and in for Miami.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Ohio State lost by 14 at home to a 6-6 Virginia Tech team. Didn't stop them from making it in. Win and in for Miami.

The thing is that the Ohio State loss was early in the year. It shouldn't matter when you lose unless it's the conference title game, but it does.

I know that Clemson also lost late last year and still got in. However, they passed the eye test. Miami really hasn't outside of the Notre Dame game.

 

[HoseEmDown]

What happens if you don't lose at any point of the season, where does that leave you?

 

[Baxterman]

What happens if you don't lose at any point of the season, where does that leave you?

If you played a good schedule in the play-offs, if you played a donkey schedule with zero quality opponents on it then it should leave you out.

 

[HoseEmDown]

If you played a good schedule in the play-offs, if you played a donkey schedule with zero quality opponents on it then it should leave you out.

That's funny seeing how beaten 6 FBS teams with a .500 or better record which is the same as Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, 1 more than Miami and 2 more than Ohio State. They have the same amount of wins over current top 25 teams as Georgia, Ohio State, Miami and Alabama while 1 more than Wisconsin. Their schedule only sucks in the mind of P5 fans.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

That's funny seeing how beaten 6 FBS teams with a .500 or better record which is the same as Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, 1 more than Miami and 2 more than Ohio State. They have the same amount of wins over current top 25 teams as Georgia, Ohio State, Miami and Alabama while 1 more than Wisconsin. Their schedule only sucks in the mind of P5 fans.

Strength of schedule:

Ohio St 3
Georgia 11
Miami 28
Alabama 7
Wisconsin 45
UCF 67

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

 

[HoseEmDown]

Strength of schedule:

Ohio St 3
Georgia 11
Miami 28
Alabama 7
Wisconsin 45
UCF 67

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

How do they come up with these rankings? Michigan is 13, they played 12 games with 8 being against teams with a losing record and 4 with a winning one. Yes the 4 are really good but that can't really outweigh 8 losing records. UCF has 7 with winning and 5 losing yet are 50 spots behind. They don't have a good at the top but still 3 more winning ones. It's why I don't think strength of schedule is meaningful. The list is just all the P5 in the top 60 then the G5, it's super biased.

 

[rangerssharks414]

How do they come up with these rankings? Michigan is 13, they played 12 games with 8 being against teams with a losing record and 4 with a winning one. Yes the 4 are really good but that can't really outweigh 8 losing records. UCF has 7 with winning and 5 losing yet are 50 spots behind. They don't have a good at the top but still 3 more winning ones. It's why I don't think strength of schedule is meaningful. The list is just all the P5 in the top 60 then the G5, it's super biased.

I would guess that the SOS of the opponents of the opponents count for something as well, but I'm not sure.

 

[Baxterman]

How do they come up with these rankings? Michigan is 13, they played 12 games with 8 being against teams with a losing record and 4 with a winning one. Yes the 4 are really good but that can't really outweigh 8 losing records. UCF has 7 with winning and 5 losing yet are 50 spots behind. They don't have a good at the top but still 3 more winning ones. It's why I don't think strength of schedule is meaningful. The list is just all the P5 in the top 60 then the G5, it's super biased.

Because as much as you try to spin it not all teams with winning or losing records are the same.

This isn't the NFL where teams are roughly equal and the schedules for the most part are similar so that a 9-7 team is close to another 9-7 team. Just using a teams record and not looking at the opponent is useless.