Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[puck stoppa]

This gives odds to the nearest tenth

Crazy how where you finish may be least likely where you end up. Almost 50/50 chance for number one to be 4. Yowza.

 

[Evil Little]

In other words...

It is more likely that they will fall to 6th than it is that they will draft in the top 3.

And a 59.4% chance they draft in the top 5.

The numbers are right there--why are we always trying to re-contextualize them [mod]?

 

[puck stoppa]

And a 59.4% chance they draft in the top 5.

The numbers are right there--why are we always trying to re-contextualize them [mod]?

Its the first time I saw that grid, didn't quite know percentage of dropping was that high. Dropping down to 6 may be a blessing in disguise, as then maybe we draft Chych who I think will be a beauty But I know we will be picking 2 and drafting Laine

 

[drumzan]

The Czech team was (and probably still is, I assume) in Winnipeg. They were on the plane from Minneapolis to Winnipeg with a contractor from my work. Perhaps they're practicing/ playing exhibitions here in Winnipeg?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fortunately for Matt, he's only half-Tkachuk. He's also half-Ostir. And by all accounts, Chantal and her family are fantastic people.

"The sins of the father shall be visited upon the sons, even unto the 7th generation."

I know it is unfair but I really disliked Keith. My gut reaction is to extend that to Matthew. If we take him I will grit my teeth and try to like him but I would rather we take someone else.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not even for one of them

Course not but do you think there is any chance that some Leaf fan doesn't think we should thank them for that?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You make some good points. I think Hall is probably the second best player on their team though... could fetch an excellent D man (which they sorely need). I still think Chia keeps Hall.

Depends whether he tries to make a strategic trade or two or to blow it up. I wonder how the lottery might affect that decision? Winning or losing could push him either way depending on how he chooses to view it.

I think the Oilers are in for big change.

 

[SLAYER]

Depends whether he tries to make a strategic trade or two or to blow it up. I wonder how the lottery might affect that decision? Winning or losing could push him either way depending on how he chooses to view it.

I think the Oilers are in for big change.

Should be an exciting draft.

Hopefully that big change is them not winning the draft lotto

 

[Aavco Cup]

I think I want this guy if he's still around with our late first/early second

 

[csk]

I think I want this guy if he's still around with our late first/early second

I wouldn't be surprised if he was gone by then

 

[simcity]

This gives odds to the nearest tenth

This chart doesn't seem accurate to me. As an example the odds for the worst team are 20% for the #1 pick, but only 17.5% for #2 and 15% for number 3. The math doesn't add up. If the worst team doesn't get drawn as the #1 pick, it's odds to be drawn for the #2 pick should be higher, not lower, as a lower percentage team is now out of the pool. The top team would be no lower than a 20% chance for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks. The math throughout is similarly flawed.

 

[Whileee]

This chart doesn't seem accurate to me. As an example the odds for the worst team are 20% for the #1 pick, but only 17.5% for #2 and 15% for number 3. The math doesn't add up. If the worst team doesn't get drawn as the #1 pick, it's odds to be drawn for the #2 pick should be higher, not lower, as a lower percentage team is now out of the pool. The top team would be no lower than a 20% chance for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks. The math throughout is similarly flawed.

The top 3 picks are in the lottery with probabilities pre-determined. The cumulative probabilities for the 2nd pick from lower teams are higher than for the 1st pick.

 

[simcity]

The top 3 picks are in the lottery with probabilities pre-determined. The cumulative probabilities for the 2nd pick from lower teams are higher than for the 1st pick.

That doesn't explain it. If you have a 20/100 chance at pick #1 and lets say the team with the worst odds (1%) got pulled as the number 1 pick. The odds for the 2nd draw at pick #2 would be 20/99 which would be 20.2%. The odds could be as high as 20/86.5 if the team with the 2nd best odds (13.5%) jumped ahead; 23.12% for the 2nd draw. However, mathematically in no scenario would their odds be less than 20% for any given draw. You can go to nhllotterysimulator.com and it shows the odds after ever selection is made and it is not possible for the top team to have lower than a 20% chance at any draw. The same mistake is made throughout which means the chart is not accurate.

 

[Aavco Cup]

That doesn't explain it. If you have a 20/100 chance at pick #1 and lets say the team with the worst odds (1%) got pulled as the number 1 pick. The odds for the 2nd draw at pick #2 would be 20/99 which would be 20.2%. The odds could be as high as 20/86.5 if the team with the 2nd best odds (13.5%) jumped ahead; 23.12% for the 2nd draw. However, mathematically in no scenario would their odds be less than 20% for any given draw. You can go to nhllotterysimulator.com and it shows the odds after ever selection is made and it is not possible for the top team to have lower than a 20% chance at any draw. The same mistake is made throughout which means the chart is not accurate.

You're forgetting that they have a 1 in 5 chance of winning the first lottery and have 0% chance of winning the other two if they do. This is overall probability for each seed.

 

[Whileee]

That doesn't explain it. If you have a 20/100 chance at pick #1 and lets say the team with the worst odds (1%) got pulled as the number 1 pick. The odds for the 2nd draw at pick #2 would be 20/99 which would be 20.2%. The odds could be as high as 20/86.5 if the team with the 2nd best odds (13.5%) jumped ahead; 23.12% for the 2nd draw. However, mathematically in no scenario would their odds be less than 20% for any given draw. You can go to nhllotterysimulator.com and it shows the odds after ever selection is made and it is not possible for the top team to have lower than a 20% chance at any draw. The same mistake is made throughout which means the chart is not accurate.

These probabilities are based on the cumulative probabilities before the lottery. If the #1 seed doesn't win the first pick the probability then jumps up for the next pick because one possibility has been removed. So the probability of a 2nd pick was lower before the draw because the #1 seed still had a chance at the #1 pick, and so on. These probabilities just show what the distribution of results would be if you ran the simulator a huge number of times. It doesn't give contingent probabilities based on a single simulation. So, for example, if you ran the simulator a million times, the #1 seed would win the #1 pick about 20% of times, and the #2 pick about 17.5% of times, etc.

 

[Gil Fisher]

These probabilities are based on the cumulative probabilities before the lottery. If the #1 seed doesn't win the first pick the probability then jumps up for the next pick because one possibility has been removed. So the probability of a 2nd pick was lower before the draw because the #1 seed still had a chance at the #1 pick, and so on. These probabilities just show what the distribution of results would be if you ran the simulator a huge number of times. It doesn't give contingent probabilities based on a single simulation. So, for example, if you ran the simulator a million times, the #1 seed would win the #1 pick about 20% of times, and the #2 pick about 17.5% of times, etc.

The odds in that table look like the input to the similation, not the output.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Wow

 

[surixon]

Wow

Yikes.

 

[Channelcat]

Is this real? Why is nobody reporting it?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Is this real? Why is nobody reporting it?

It's out in Russian media. Translation issues?

 

[Grind]

TSN guys this morning mentioned it. seemse pretty wild.

 

[Peter Tagli Eddie]

ISS top 30 released.

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-hockey-releases-iss-top-30-for-april/

1- AM
2- Puljujarvi
3 - Laine
4 - Nylander
5 - PLD
6 - TK

Brown @ 11

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

Sketchy things happening in Russia, no surprises there.

 

[mondo3]

ISS top 30 released.

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-hockey-releases-iss-top-30-for-april/

1- AM
2- Puljujarvi
3 - Laine
4 - Nylander
5 - PLD
6 - TK

Brown @ 11

interesting...I thought Laine was considered a lock for 2nd. And Nylander at 4th? I think this draft will be very unpredictable after the first pick

 

[Channelcat]

Probably doesn't help the Euro prospects in the draft. What does this mean for Rubtsov, Abramov and the other draft eligible prospects on that team? Maybe opportunity