2015 NHL Draft Discussion Part III

[Zhamnov10]

Their fitness director has said they look for explosiveness in their skating.

Then that should eliminate Harkins!

 

[Halfy]

Hoping for 2 of the following:
McDavid
Eichel
White
Guryanov
Svech
Merkley
Konecny
Zboril
Kylington
Timo
Gretzky

It would be nice if we got another Petan-like gift in the second round with Bracco, Beauvillier, Novak, Aho being available.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Hehe... Lots of people talk about White's mono, so I went to look at White's 16 year old year*.

Closest comparable to his 16 yo season is Winnipeg Jet property John Albert.


* PS, when you look at Lowry's PCS numbers, his draft is a valley but the rest is pretty consistent, interestingly.

So, when you compare White to Albert in their 16 year old seasons, whom we all know is a long shot to make any significant impact in the NHL, you're saying to be careful with lusting over him and attributing his play this season to Mono and wrist surgery? How has he compared since?

 

[Whileee]

Hehe... Lots of people talk about White's mono, so I went to look at White's 16 year old year*.

Closest comparable to his 16 yo season is Winnipeg Jet property John Albert.


* PS, when you look at Lowry's PCS numbers, his draft is a valley but the rest is pretty consistent, interestingly.

Lowry's "valley" is pretty easy to explain if you consider that his team's overall goal production took a huge dip that year. If you "adjust" for that, his progression was pretty steady.

Lowry (points/game : team goals/game):

2010: 0.17
2011: 0.29 (draft year)
2012: 0.34
2013: 0.43

I think you are going to find that including a formula that assesses offensive production in relation to the overall team offensive production is going to improve your ability to project players using their stats.

Lowry's draft year point production (as a proportion of team goals/game) wasn't that far behind Lawson Crouse this year (0.32), and better than Bittner's (0.27), who happened to play with two of the top.

Regarding White, I hope you didn't cherry-pick Albert as a comparative just because you're not very high on him. Surely there were others around his level that turned out okay, too.

 

[supersonic jet]

Lowry's "valley" is pretty easy to explain if you consider that his team's overall goal production took a huge dip that year. If you "adjust" for that, his progression was pretty steady.

Lowry (points/game : team goals/game):

2010: 0.17
2011: 0.29 (draft year)
2012: 0.34
2013: 0.43

I think you are going to find that including a formula that assesses offensive production in relation to the overall team offensive production is going to improve your ability to project players using their stats.

Lowry's draft year point production (as a proportion of team goals/game) wasn't that far behind Lawson Crouse this year (0.32), and better than Bittner's (0.27), who happened to play with two of the top.

Regarding White, I hope you didn't cherry-pick Albert as a comparative just because you're not very high on him. Surely there were others around his level that turned out okay, too.

I would like the Jets to draft an Aho in the 4th Rd, the one that plays Defense.

 

[Constable]

Bittner should drop to the 2nd round this year. Too much talent to play with to not put up points.

 

[ps241]

I would like the Jets to draft an Aho in the 4th Rd, the one that plays Defense.

I would like both just to listen to Dennis Beyak

 

[drumzan]

At 17? or at 25? I like Merkley and Svech over him if it is an option. I like White a lot too though.

17 and I'd take him over Svech and Merkley. I like who I like!

 

[Romang67]

I'd probably go for White and bet on him having a massive bounce back without mono and a wrist injury.

Of course, there are few players that would make me unhappy if we picked them.

 

[Whileee]

I'd probably go for White and bet on him having a massive bounce back without mono and a wrist injury.

Of course, there are few players that would make me unhappy if we picked them.

I like White, too. To me he seems a bit like Harkins in terms of his approach to the game and eventual role, but appears to have a bit more zip to his game and a bit more upside.

 

[mcpw]

 

[Davedrivesbus]

I like White, too. To me he seems a bit like Harkins in terms of his approach to the game and eventual role, but appears to have a bit more zip to his game and a bit more upside.

I liked what little I saw of White but not sure he has more upside. Harkins has size and carried a bad team as a 17 year old. But if u really want zip and upside Guryanov is that guy.

 

[Constable]

If they seriously rated both Roy and Svechnikov in the low 2nd round, the scouting needs to be evaluated.

I was doing a bit of watching, and Svechnikov can score literally anywhere on the ice. In his hat trick against St.Johns, he:

-Fired off a nasty wrister low glove side in the middle of the offensive zone
-Blasted a slap shot from just below the blue line top shelf
-Let a sneaky wrister go down low in front.

Some other goals I saw were he picked the puck up down low, used his size to get in front, and tuck it in. I really think he could become a top 10 player from this draft

 

[jetkarma*]

Mark Edwards
First Round Scouting

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Doubt the Jets go Svech.

 

[mcpw]

So we can forget about Guryanov, too?

 

[jetkarma*]

So we can forget about Guryanov, too?

Seeing that the Jets have not drafted a Russian high let alone very high to date , chances are we don't start with Gurianov . Saying that , it's all based on each individual player but the rankings take in all risk and reward aspects.

He also has a contract for some years so that comes into play for some teams I am sure .

 

[jetkarma*]

17 and I'd take him over Svech and Merkley. I like who I like!

I would make the same choice .

 

[Guilty Party]

If they seriously rated both Roy and Svechnikov in the low 2nd round, the scouting needs to be evaluated.

I was doing a bit of watching, and Svechnikov can score literally anywhere on the ice. In his hat trick against St.Johns, he:

-Fired off a nasty wrister low glove side in the middle of the offensive zone
-Blasted a slap shot from just below the blue line top shelf
-Let a sneaky wrister go down low in front.

Some other goals I saw were he picked the puck up down low, used his size to get in front, and tuck it in. I really think he could become a top 10 player from this draft

Maybe one of those teams was the *former* Oiler's scouting staff?
I can just picture it...the final straw.
Scouting staff: "We're convinced both Roy and Svechnikov are late 2nd round picks."
Chiarelli: *points to the door* "Get.The.****.Out."

 

[truck]

I liked what little I saw of White but not sure he has more upside. Harkins has size and carried a bad team as a 17 year old. But if u really want zip and upside Guryanov is that guy.

Scouting reports for White, Boeser and Harkins all read mighty similar, slightly different pros and cons, but similar players with similar projections. Even Debrusk is credited with similar defensive acumen and intangibles. White is said to have impressive upside, and I suspect a large portion of that is based on athleticism, but Harkins and Debrusk have produced at higher rates thus far.

Earlier in the 1st, Merkley is credited with a lot of the same intangibles and two way ability too. Lots of players in the mix that seem to fit the TNSE model. Who will become a shutdown center, who will have top 6 upside? These are the tough questions, but I could definitely see a couple of these potential late round picks turning into pillars down the road.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe one of those teams was the *former* Oiler's scouting staff?
I can just picture it...the final straw.
Scouting staff: "We're convinced both Roy and Svechnikov are late 2nd round picks."
Chiarelli: *points to the door* "Get.The.****.Out."

 

[jetkarma*]

I could definitely see a couple of these potential late round picks turning into pillars down the road.

You mean late first round ? Or late round ?

 

[Bob E]

if the rumors the Jets really like Hanifin are true, does anyone think we can put together a package to get him?

Would our 2-1sts, another player (Postma) and prospect (Burmi or Petan) be enough to move up? Would likely need to get into top 6.

 

[Rheged]

It was clarified after that only Svetch was rated late 2nd.. Roy he had heard late 1st.

 

[mcpw]

It was clarified after that only Svetch was rated late 2nd.. Roy he had heard late 1st.

I see. So it's the Russian factor.

 

[Jetabre]

I wonder if that's more a "We don't draft Russians" thing rather than his skill level and NHL projectability for Svechnikov to be ranked there by some.