2015 NHL Draft Discussion Part III

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1870867

Just how many teams in the cup finals have players who played junior together?

I'd rather take multiple players and let them develop NHL chemistry if (a pretty important if) they make the show rather than throw all he eggs in one basket because there's a player who has shown chemistry with our highly rated prospect in junior.

I think chemistry is a real and powerful thing in sports, but there is no way it should be used to condone trading for junior prospects paying over the odds to acquire.

Yeah, but the main difference is Ehlers only played on Drouin's line on the PP whereas Meier and Ehlers play on the same even strength and PP lines so it's safe to assume Ehlers is affecting his point totals.

@garret: there's also no guarantee that whatever "chemistry" existed at the junior level will follow through to the pro level, or that the player in question will even make it at the next level. Seems very risky, to me.

Yup.

What if Meier doesn't make the NHL?
What if he does but isn't good enough to play as high as Ehlers does?

The draft is essentially is a game where you are given free assets that are potential cost controlled players. Optimizing asset control should be the name of the game for drafting.

Take the best player. Get the best possible asset value you can. From there work with what you got.

One example of this is Dallas's 2014 draft. They aquired 2 extra picks (4th and a 6th) and with their 9 picks they chose 6 D!

If you talked to Dallas going in they felt they had a decent pipeline of D already but that is how it fell to them and they had the disipline to stick to their board.

Take "your BPA" and don't get cute.

Its also mind numbing when TSN say well that's off the board.......no its really not off the teams board that just picked.......its off as far as consensus boards go but concensus boards only exist for fans and don't take into account teams individual priorities. The Jets prioritize and weight certain attributes and characteristics more heavily than others and that will scew their board towards valuing assets different than a generic board and the same goes for 29 other teams.

There is no board, there are 30 boards in real life and no two are the same. They may all agree on Connor and Jack but after that you can bet its a cluster ****.

Click to read more...

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

also quoting ps's last post because it's something that irks me to no end

Its also mind numbing when TSN say well that's off the board.......no its really not off the teams board that just picked.......its off as far as consensus boards go but concensus boards only exist for fans and don't take into account teams individual priorities. The Jets prioritize and weight certain attributes and characteristics more heavily than others and that will scew their board towards valuing assets different than a generic board and the same goes for 29 other teams.

There is no board, there are 30 boards in real life and no two are the same. They may all agree on Connor and Jack but after that you can bet its a cluster ****.

 

[KingBogo]

One example of this is Dallas's 2014 draft. They aquired 2 extra picks (4th and a 6th) and with their 9 picks they chose 6 D!

If you talked to Dallas going in they felt they had a decent pipeline of D already but that is how it fell to them and they had the disipline to stick to their board.

Take "your BPA" and don't get cute.

Its also mind numbing when TSN say well that's off the board.......no its really not off the teams board that just picked.......its off as far as consensus boards go but concensus boards only exist for fans and don't take into account teams individual priorities. The Jets prioritize and weight certain attributes and characteristics more heavily than others and that will scew their board towards valuing assets different than a generic board and the same goes for 29 other teams.

There is no board, there are 30 boards in real life and no two are the same. They may all agree on Connor and Jack but after that you can bet its a cluster ****.

I couldn't agree more PS. This whole idea of a consensus board is media and fan driven. There have been many comments about someone being out of our draft reach because they are ranked 12th or 15th or somewhere before 17th. But the fact is many players will drop below their consensus ranking and many will jump up depending on individual boards. Come draft day there will almost assuredly be a handful of consensus top 15 picks available when we select 17th, and just as likely Chevy will not take one of them and select someone even lower on the consensus board. IMO team X has thrown away their future poster reactions to non concensus picks is one of the best parts of draft day.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The only thing that would concern me is if our first three picks were all really small guys. All carbon copies of each other. I'd rather have a variety of player size and skill sets chosen. If the Jets board was pointing that way I'd rather have Chevy trade down and increase our number of picks and our "variety"

 

[Grind]

Disagree. If you end up with three high skill small players you've got a far better chance of them developing, increasing their value, then trading them for whatever other "type" of player your after then trading back and drafting two big guys and hoping they pan out.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Disagree. If you end up with three high skill small players you've got a far better chance of them developing, increasing their value, then trading them for whatever other "type" of player your after then trading back and drafting two big guys and hoping they pan out.

I don't view trading down so negatively. Most here seem to want us to trade up but I would rather go the other way and increase our # of selections.

 

[Whileee]

I don't view trading down so negatively. Most here seem to want us to trade up but I would rather go the other way and increase our # of selections.

It might not be a terrible idea with one of our first rounders this year, if the Jets think that there are quite a few good prospects in the 20-50 range. I wouldn't want to trade down much past the mid-2nd round though.

 

[Bob E]

I don't view trading down so negatively. Most here seem to want us to trade up but I would rather go the other way and increase our # of selections.

If we were short on prospects, I'd agree, but we have a pretty decent number already in AHL or turning pro soon, where I'd like quality over quantity, at this point.

We should be getting solid prospects at 17, 25, and 47. But if TNSE wants a guy at 12 or so, I say go get him. You have some assets to work with.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I couldn't agree more PS. This whole idea of a consensus board is media and fan driven. There have been many comments about someone being out of our draft reach because they are ranked 12th or 15th or somewhere before 17th. But the fact is many players will drop below their consensus ranking and many will jump up depending on individual boards. Come draft day there will almost assuredly be a handful of consensus top 15 picks available when we select 17th, and just as likely Chevy will not take one of them and select someone even lower on the consensus board. IMO team X has thrown away their future poster reactions to non concensus picks is one of the best parts of draft day.

All you need to do is look at the variation among the 'expert' rankings. There is plenty. Player x will be 10th, 17th and 22nd. There is no consensus board. Sometimes there is a consensus on a specific player but beyond the 1st few that is probably chance.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't view trading down so negatively. Most here seem to want us to trade up but I would rather go the other way and increase our # of selections.

Dead against this in general. There is always the chance for a specific exception but the odds of getting a good result drop off so sharply as you go down in the draft that it is a bad idea.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Dead against this in general. There is always the chance for a specific exception but the odds of getting a good result drop off so sharply as you go down in the draft that it is a bad idea.

I think the sharp drop off is after the 1st 10-15 picks actually. It's very gradual after that.

 

[Jetabre]

I think the sharp drop off is after the 1st 10-15 picks actually. It's very gradual after that.

I agree, I think after 14 or so the drop off from 15 to half way through the 2nd isn't that big.

But I also agree with those saying with where our organization is right now we want quality over quantity prospects.

Will be interesting to see what the Jets do.

 

[Daximus]

What does everyone think of Filip Chlapik?

 

[drumzan]

The problem is, if Jets draft Meier solely for talent and he's BPA on their board at their pick, the narrative will still be chemistry no matter what.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't view trading down so negatively. Most here seem to want us to trade up but I would rather go the other way and increase our # of selections.

Maybe trade the Blues 1st (25th overall) for 2 x 2nd rounders? Here's a list of teams with 2 (or more) x 2nd round picks:

BUF - 31 and 51
ARI - 32 and 59
EDM - 33 and 57
CBJ - 34, 38 and 60
NJD - 36 and 41
OTT - 42 and 48
CAL - 45, 52 and 53

Depends on who's on the board at 25 and whether any of those teams (or the Jets) want that guy I guess.

 

[Daximus]

I would not be opposed to trading Buff to Phili for their 1st+ if we could snag Provorov with it.
Provorov a Center and a Winger could really stock our pipeline.
Most scouting reports say Provorov is NHL ready.

 

[Jetabre]

I would not be opposed to trading Buff to Phili for their 1st+ if we could snag Provorov with it.
Provorov a Center and a Winger could really stock our pipeline.
Most scouting reports say Provorov is NHL ready.

1 year of Byfuglien doesn't get us the 7th pick. Would love to get Provorov though.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

Anyone know if we're getting the conditional 7th round pick from Buffalo for Samuels-Thomas? Everywhere I look, the conditions of the pick are unknown.

 

[Grind]

We published our top 10 "safest" Dman list yesterday.

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/05/19/top-10-safest-defensemen-in-the-2015-draft-first-round/

A number of these guys should still be on the board when the jets pick.

Furthermore I found two VERY safe dmen rated after the second round: Rasmussen Anderson who's ranked late second/thirdish and Thomas Schmitsch who's ranked as a 4th or later.

We've all talked about Anderson bit Schmitsch is in a %58 success rate cohort and a 1/10 chance of being elite. He's insanr value from a statistical point of view at his ranking.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Maybe trade the Blues 1st (25th overall) for 2 x 2nd rounders? Here's a list of teams with 2 (or more) x 2nd round picks:

BUF - 31 and 51
ARI - 32 and 59
EDM - 33 and 57
CBJ - 34, 38 and 60
NJD - 36 and 41
OTT - 42 and 48
CAL - 45, 52 and 53

Depends on who's on the board at 25 and whether any of those teams (or the Jets) want that guy I guess.

Tampa (NYR's spot) 28-29-30 + 44

 

[Daximus]

1 year of Byfuglien doesn't get us the 7th pick. Would love to get Provorov though.

We'd need to sign Buff to a reasonable contract while also making sure he doesn't want a NTC, if its limited I'd see no reason for Buff not wanting to play in Phili, especially as a top pairing offensive dman there.
Provorov has future Norris contender writen all over him.

 

[Jetabre]

We'd need to sign Buff to a reasonable contract while also making sure he doesn't want a NTC, if its limited I'd see no reason for Buff not wanting to play in Phili, especially as a top pairing offensive dman there.
Provorov has future Norris contender writen all over him.

Buff can't be re-signed till after July 1st - after the draft.

 

[Daximus]

Buff can't be re-signed till after July 1st - after the draft.

Damn you CBA!

 

[Daximus]

We published our top 10 "safest" Dman list yesterday.

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/05/19/top-10-safest-defensemen-in-the-2015-draft-first-round/

A number of these guys should still be on the board when the jets pick.

Furthermore I found two VERY safe dmen rated after the second round: Rasmussen Anderson who's ranked late second/thirdish and Thomas Schmitsch who's ranked as a 4th or later.

We've all talked about Anderson bit Schmitsch is in a %58 success rate cohort and a 1/10 chance of being elite. He's insanr value from a statistical point of view at his ranking.

I like the fact that Hanifin is off this safe list. I honestly think Provorov will be the better defencemen.
I also think Pilon would be a great pick, he really seems to have fallen in some recent rankings though.
Kylington will be a steal as well. Though I'm certain many other teams have him ranked higher than a lot of the official rankings out there.

 

[Romang67]

We published our top 10 "safest" Dman list yesterday.

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/05/19/top-10-safest-defensemen-in-the-2015-draft-first-round/

A number of these guys should still be on the board when the jets pick.

Furthermore I found two VERY safe dmen rated after the second round: Rasmussen Anderson who's ranked late second/thirdish and Thomas Schmitsch who's ranked as a 4th or later.

We've all talked about Anderson bit Schmitsch is in a %58 success rate cohort and a 1/10 chance of being elite. He's insanr value from a statistical point of view at his ranking.

The heck kinda name is Schmitsch?