SD should have pretty good chances at winning the Calder right? Or am I overestimating our team down there?
It's the playoffs - anything can happen. Texas finished #3 in the Pacific, behind the Gulls, but won the head-to-head season series against the Gulls 5-1, so coming home with three games to play isn't a guarantee of advancing. Assuming they do win two of three at home, the next round is against Ontario, who were WAY in front in the regular-season standings, but the Gulls went 8-4 against them in the head-to-head, so who knows how the playoffs will work out, especially with all the Kings' players and all the Ducks' players eligible to be sent down (as well as all the ATOs on both squads).
Any team that gets out of the Pacific will likely have a relatively unknown opponent to face in the Conference finals, given the 60 of 68 games that were played in-division, and should the Pacific representative reach the CC Final, they're almost guaranteed to have an opponent they've never seen before.
I would say there is "a visible path to the Cup", personally, but wouldn't go so far as to say "a good chance". The biggest factor, to me, is which Gulls team shows up for the majority of games -- they can be bafflingly inconsistent from game to game.