Prospect Info: 2014/15 Marlies/Prospects Thread v.3 - The Kids are Alright

[The Winter Soldier]

I believe hockey will come full circle, all it takes is a team to win a cup with toughness and enforcers for teams to go back to fighting. Seen this anti fighting phase before. I would not be surprised if Devane will be a valued commodity one day.

 

[Joey Hoser]

I believe hockey will come full circle, all it takes is a team to win a cup with toughness and enforcers for teams to go back to fighting. Seen this anti fighting phase before. I would not be surprised if Devane will be a valued commodity one day.

Anaheim did that, and it didn't really catch on.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Anaheim did that, and it didn't really catch on.

Boston, even LAK but less so...

 

[HockeyCA]

Devane can barely play at the AHL level. The idea that he can be a contributor on a Stanley Cup winning team is non-sense. Jordan Nolan is 3 times the player he is and his role on the Kings was a minor one. Players that can play hockey and are also tough is the new wave of the NHL. Not pure enforcers/fighters. Those days are long gone.

 

[zeke]

Yes thanks tips, for telling us what everyone and their mother who stat watches can say. What they can't tell you is that he's not getting used in an offensive role, doesn't get powerplay time, and really isn't getting the chances that many 19 year old players do.

Yet he's improving almost all other apsects of his game. His faceoffs, his defensive game etc. And he's dominant in it. Like to the point where he probably could be considered one of the best in the CHL. He plays top PK time, is often on in circumstances at the end of the game that you only get into if you're trusted by your coach defensively, and he did just get another invitation to selection camp.

We all here you guys when you say "points, points, points". We get it. The thing most of us are wondering is why everything else is ignored, when many (not you but others) love to point out that hockey is more than points (one particular poster...) Gauthier is that, in an enormous way. Maybe that is something that he can capitalize on and make the NHL in. Which is what we're saying. And saying maybe not determine the kid's fate before he's even fifteen games into only his second post draft season where he missed training camp because of an injury.

Context is important and way to often ignored by certain posters. That's not "being unrealistic" as some might suggest. Just saying calling a 19 year old with only two years of CHL experience, and only 12 games into his third CHL season a "in tough" to make the NHL absolutely idiotic on the largest level.

Let me put it this way...

MOST PROSPECTS FAIL.

You have 10 good prospects, and you should be happy if 1 turns into a stud, 2-3 more turn our decently, and a couple more turn out as borderline. That's about as much as you can expect.

When we look at prospects, its our best bet to pretty much eliminate anyone who shows a specific significant deficit at any point in his prospect career. This applies to even just specific skills - i.e. a kid is too small, or too slow, or too lazy - and applies even moreso to measures which in some ways evaluate how a bunch of these individual skills come together - like production.

We all understand that Gauthier may be excelling defensively at the junior level, and has some great individual skillsets, but we also know that the odds against a player with his current production actually becoming a valuable NHLer are very, very high.

I was a fan of the Gauthier pick. At that point in the draft taking a PPG 17yr old with his size and skating was a very smart pick, IMO. But last year's offensive stagnation was a really bad sign, and if he can't turn it around bigtime this year you're probably gonna be waiting in vain on this kid.

 

[theIceWookie]

Let me put it this way...

MOST PROSPECTS FAIL.

You have 10 good prospects, and you should be happy if 1 turns into a stud, 2-3 more turn our decently, and a couple more turn out as borderline. That's about as much as you can expect.

When we look at prospects, its our best bet to pretty much eliminate anyone who shows a specific significant deficit at any point in his prospect career. This applies to even just specific skills - i.e. a kid is too small, or too slow, or too lazy - and applies even moreso to measures which in some ways evaluate how a bunch of these individual skills come together - like production.

We all understand that Gauthier may be excelling defensively at the junior level, and has some great individual skillsets, but we also know that the odds against a player with his current production actually becoming a valuable NHLer are very, very high.

I was a fan of the Gauthier pick. At that point in the draft taking a PPG 17yr old with his size and skating was a very smart pick, IMO. But last year's offensive stagnation was a really bad sign, and if he can't turn it around bigtime this year you're probably gonna be waiting in vain on this kid.

Back to my original point of saying while most propsects don't reach the NHL, writing them off before they even have a pro game played is among the more absurd things on here.

More than a few factors determine he'll get his shot, and bump up against the production argument. I'm not going to mention all the defensive side of things because clearly you and other don't want to hear that. So I'll go to the biggest thing that probably means he'll be given a fair shot at the NHL.

He was a first round pick. That's a heavy investment for a team. They put training camp time and more into first rounds, not to mention the other costs that are less tangible that relate to a first round pick. Gauthier isn't a 3rd, 4th, 5th round pick. He has more invested in him by the team then those players. That alone means he'll be given a shot at the NHL barring a complete lack of progression in his game. And seeing as the only thing in his game stagnating (and not regressing) is offense, that's just not likely to happen...

You can ignore all the context you want, but Gauthier will get his shot at the NHL, I can almost guarantee it. The kid is a coaches dream, and there is some significant context that show that his current production has more to do with his use as a defensive player than anything else, no matter how much you want to ignore it.

Have people really not learned by now that points hardly provide a reliable means of judging a player's future success? Not just a little but completely. Players are different, situations are different, it literally can't be used to properly judge a player's future. People would have gone nuts see Getzlaf put up only 54 points in his final season in the WHL. There are so many examples of players who have scored around 0.95-1.1 PPG in their final CHL season and made the NHL that it should really be a moot point now. Getting a PPG in a final CHL season is a complete arbitrary point that some posters have picked and placed in their minds that if a player doesn't reach it they'll fail. It's moronic.

And Gauthier is 12 games into his third season. Holy s*** people, settle down.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Let me put it this way...

MOST PROSPECTS FAIL.

You have 10 good prospects, and you should be happy if 1 turns into a stud, 2-3 more turn our decently, and a couple more turn out as borderline. That's about as much as you can expect.

When we look at prospects, its our best bet to pretty much eliminate anyone who shows a specific significant deficit at any point in his prospect career. This applies to even just specific skills - i.e. a kid is too small, or too slow, or too lazy - and applies even moreso to measures which in some ways evaluate how a bunch of these individual skills come together - like production.

We all understand that Gauthier may be excelling defensively at the junior level, and has some great individual skillsets, but we also know that the odds against a player with his current production actually becoming a valuable NHLer are very, very high.

I was a fan of the Gauthier pick. At that point in the draft taking a PPG 17yr old with his size and skating was a very smart pick, IMO. But last year's offensive stagnation was a really bad sign, and if he can't turn it around bigtime this year you're probably gonna be waiting in vain on this kid.

I'm going to surprise you. But credit where credit is due. Good post that really articulated the Gauthier situation to a T.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Back to my original point of saying while most propsects don't reach the NHL, writing them off before they even have a pro game played is among the more absurd things on here.

More than a few factors determine he'll get his shot, and bump up against the production argument. I'm not going to mention all the defensive side of things because clearly you and other don't want to hear that. So I'll go to the biggest thing that probably means he'll be given a fair shot at the NHL.

He was a first round pick. That's a heavy investment for a team. They put training camp time and more into first rounds, not to mention the other costs that are less tangible that relate to a first round pick. Gauthier isn't a 3rd, 4th, 5th round pick. He has more invested in him by the team then those players. That alone means he'll be given a shot at the NHL barring a complete lack of progression in his game. And seeing as the only thing in his game stagnating (and not regressing) is offense, that's just not likely to happen...

You can ignore all the context you want, but Gauthier will get his shot at the NHL, I can almost guarantee it. The kid is a coaches dream, and there is some significant context that show that his current production has more to do with his use as a defensive player than anything else, no matter how much you want to ignore it.

Have people really not learned by now that points hardly provide a reliable means of judging a player's future success? Not just a little but completely. Players are different, situations are different, it literally can't be used to properly judge a player's future. People would have gone nuts see Getzlaf put up only 54 points in his final season in the WHL. There are so many examples of players who have scored around 0.95-1.1 PPG in their final CHL season and made the NHL that it should really be a moot point now. Getting a PPG in a final CHL season is a complete arbitrary point that some posters have picked and placed in their minds that if a player doesn't reach it they'll fail. It's moronic.

And Gauthier is 12 games into his third season. Holy s*** people, settle down.

Have to ask, when do you consider the time to worry about a prospect. Again we know Gauthier's defensive acumen, but even defensive players are expected to produce now. If Gauthier produces 60 points this season, positive or negative he has never broken 60 points in the Q.

 

[ChrisCall]

Again, not disagreeing with the concern over production, but who here was watched him play enough this season (Like 5+ games minimum) who can in fact comment on the situation.

It looks to me like he is playing on the 2nd line or below, with players who have a lower PPG than he does. It reads as though he is being prioritized in defensive situations. I can surmise that as a player with a reputation for being responsible, he is likely giving up on scoring plays to make the smart play. To what degree COULD he score more if he were suddenly put into a position to do so? To what degree has he not earned that, or would earning that be possible behind undrafted player Alexis Loiseau. Are his points a result of the old stick dangle through the middle that Kessel and Naz (especially) were so one dimensional about in years past? (and who both THANKFULLY do it far less than they used to). Or does he maximize the smart opportunities to score with good plays that should suffice at the NHL level?

 

[7even]

Have to ask, when do you consider the time to worry about a prospect. Again we know Gauthier's defensive acumen, but even defensive players are expected to produce now. If Gauthier produces 60 points this season, positive or negative he has never broken 60 points in the Q.

He scored 60 in his draft year.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He scored 60 in his draft year.

Well I said broken 60 points, which means over to me, but that's not really the point. This is still a very modest total. The question remains, just when should one start being concerned since all we are hearing is don't worry it is only 12 games in.

 

[EverybodyLovesRay]

Any info about Gibson? His stats looks pretty good, how is he playing?

 

[SwissLeaf]

Fabrice Herzog from Zug to Zürich for the next two seasons.

I hope it has something to do with the cooperation between the Leafs and Zürich.

 

[TheCLAM]

Do we still own his rights?

I'm under the impression because he was drafted out of Switzerland we own them for 4 years

 

[SprDaVE]

Do we still own his rights?

I'm under the impression because he was drafted out of Switzerland we own them for 4 years

Yes.

 

[7even]

Well I said broken 60 points, which means over to me, but that's not really the point.

Well that's just nitpicky.

This is still a very modest total. The question remains, just when should one start being concerned since all we are hearing is don't worry it is only 12 games in.

Last season.

 

[New Liskeard]

Let me put it this way...

MOST PROSPECTS FAIL.

You have 10 good prospects, and you should be happy if 1 turns into a stud, 2-3 more turn our decently, and a couple more turn out as borderline. That's about as much as you can expect.

When we look at prospects, its our best bet to pretty much eliminate anyone who shows a specific significant deficit at any point in his prospect career. This applies to even just specific skills - i.e. a kid is too small, or too slow, or too lazy - and applies even moreso to measures which in some ways evaluate how a bunch of these individual skills come together - like production.

We all understand that Gauthier may be excelling defensively at the junior level, and has some great individual skillsets, but we also know that the odds against a player with his current production actually becoming a valuable NHLer are very, very high.

I was a fan of the Gauthier pick. At that point in the draft taking a PPG 17yr old with his size and skating was a very smart pick, IMO. But last year's offensive stagnation was a really bad sign, and if he can't turn it around bigtime this year you're probably gonna be waiting in vain on this kid.

he only real measurable and anything of any real value, is how much offence a player can bring to the NHL.

 

[theIceWookie]

Have to ask, when do you consider the time to worry about a prospect. Again we know Gauthier's defensive acumen, but even defensive players are expected to produce now. If Gauthier produces 60 points this season, positive or negative he has never broken 60 points in the Q.

When to worry? When a player regresses, I worry. When a player shows little progression in their game I worry. When a player is constantly injured I worry.

Is Gauthier any of those things? Well he's progressed in many parts of his games, whether you care to admit it or not. Defensively he continues to progress, as well as in his faceoff game.

He hasn't regressed in his his game. It wouldn't be the first time a player has had consistent point totals through his CHL career. Brendon Gaunce was similar in that regard. I'm not really sure why 60 points seems to be this arbitrary barrier that you've chosen. There are many examples of players who have not broken and still went on to have fine careers.

Also I'd be worried if their wasn't significant context to give potential reason for why he hasn't had the opportunity to develop his offense as much, context you also refuse to acknowledge. His team is in line to contend for the Q championship and Memorial Cup. As probably the best defensive forward in the Q, his team often hands him the toughest defensive assignments and lots of PK time. He's not getting opportunities to develop his offense the way many other third year players were. This isn't a CV situation where he went from third line center in his second year to first line center once Strome and Shipley left. He's very much getting Staaled (if you bring up Couturier again, ima smack you. The situations aren't the same. Couturier had no one ahead of him. He was the top center from his 2nd season onwards and his team was never in Memorial Cup contention. Where Gautheir has an overager and because of their chances at a Memorial Cup decided to go for the win and use a top line overage center, and have Gauthier do his thing as one of the league's top defensive centers). He's not being given the opportunity to develop offensively, do you understand this?

And all you keep hearing is "it's only 12 games". Give me a break. You've heard much much more yet you continue to ignore it. You do remember he was injured correct? Didn't have a training camp? There's a reason we keep saying "it's only been a few games". First four he had 1 goal. Last 8? 5 goals 9 points. Small sample size buddy, might want to hold off before you go proclaiming moronic statements.

And here's an interesting tidbit of information you should listen too but I know probably won't. Only three teams in the league has the luxury of having two centers that have scored over or at a PPG pace. Only three. Baie-Comeau, Moncton and Val D'or (and I'm guessing they may actually roll with some of the three centers above a PPG on the same line a lot of the time, but I can't be sure).

Quebec is close, Rimouski is close, Rouyn-Noranda is close.

But having two centers who have scored over a PPG pace in the Q is a rarity. Makes it hard for a player who isn't getting top PP time and top line time to score over a PPG pace in his years as a 2nd line center for his team.

That's why I'm not worried. Am I dissapointed he hasn't scored more? Yes, but that doesn't mean he should be written off or even worried. He has others areas of his game that have shown progression that leave me seeing him as a prospect with legit NHL potential still. Not to mention if he makes the Canadian team again, it only bodes well for how he's seen as a prospect. But you'll probably wilfully ignore every argument I've made here and say "points!". I'd love to see any kind of response to half the points I made here that invalidate that rebuttal...

 

[theIceWookie]

Well that's just nitpicky.



Last season.

Only for his lack of offensive development. In all other levels of his games he's shown progression. And again, he's getting Staaled. Makes it very hard to develop offensively. Dissapointing its not happening? Yes. Worrisome? meh, not really.

 

[Bullseye]

I worry only that Gauthier is often injured.

Hard to develop when you're battling a back, a knee, a shoulder... he's big but like most junior players he needs to become a physical beast - that will come but it takes time. Most guys don't get there until the mid 20's or until they get injured and understand it takes extreme dedication in the weight room to guard against constant injuries. Defenseman get that message earlier than some of the forwards and then there's Phil Kessel (that's a good-natured shot cause I like Kessel).

 

[Judas Tavares]

Andrew MacWilliam, Petter Granberg, Brad Ross, Eric Knodel, Greg McKegg and Sam Carrick are RFAs after this season. Who gets re-signed?

I think only Carrick is for sure, with the hope he becomes the 4th line centre. The defencemen may have a shot depending on the status of Franson, if we keep Gardiner, how all the other defencemen develop etc...

Ross seems to be getting on a roll, but if he regresses again, that could be it. McKegg to seems to be a guy only suited to be a 2nd line centre, and I am not sure he has shown enough offence in the AHL to prove he can handle it. He likely ends up as a tweener somewhere.

 

[LeafsTop6]

Andrew MacWilliam, Petter Granberg, Brad Ross, Eric Knodel, Greg McKegg and Sam Carrick are RFAs after this season. Who gets re-signed?

I think only Carrick is for sure, with the hope he becomes the 4th line centre. The defencemen may have a shot depending on the status of Franson, if we keep Gardiner, how all the other defencemen develop etc...

Ross seems to be getting on a roll, but if he regresses again, that could be it. McKegg to seems to be a guy only suited to be a 2nd line centre, and I am not sure he has shown enough offence in the AHL to prove he can handle it. He likely ends up as a tweener somewhere.

I think all but ross will be re-signed. All have fairly steadily improved. Even though the defense prospects are redundant i think all three have the potential to be decent 5/6.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

When to worry? When a player regresses, I worry. When a player shows little progression in their game I worry. When a player is constantly injured I worry.

Is Gauthier any of those things? Well he's progressed in many parts of his games, whether you care to admit it or not. Defensively he continues to progress, as well as in his faceoff game.

He hasn't regressed in his his game. It wouldn't be the first time a player has had consistent point totals through his CHL career. Brendon Gaunce was similar in that regard. I'm not really sure why 60 points seems to be this arbitrary barrier that you've chosen. There are many examples of players who have not broken and still went on to have fine careers.

Also I'd be worried if their wasn't significant context to give potential reason for why he hasn't had the opportunity to develop his offense as much, context you also refuse to acknowledge. His team is in line to contend for the Q championship and Memorial Cup. As probably the best defensive forward in the Q, his team often hands him the toughest defensive assignments and lots of PK time. He's not getting opportunities to develop his offense the way many other third year players were. This isn't a CV situation where he went from third line center in his second year to first line center once Strome and Shipley left. He's very much getting Staaled (if you bring up Couturier again, ima smack you. The situations aren't the same. Couturier had no one ahead of him. He was the top center from his 2nd season onwards and his team was never in Memorial Cup contention. Where Gautheir has an overager and because of their chances at a Memorial Cup decided to go for the win and use a top line overage center, and have Gauthier do his thing as one of the league's top defensive centers). He's not being given the opportunity to develop offensively, do you understand this?

And all you keep hearing is "it's only 12 games". Give me a break. You've heard much much more yet you continue to ignore it. You do remember he was injured correct? Didn't have a training camp? There's a reason we keep saying "it's only been a few games". First four he had 1 goal. Last 8? 5 goals 9 points. Small sample size buddy, might want to hold off before you go proclaiming moronic statements.

And here's an interesting tidbit of information you should listen too but I know probably won't. Only three teams in the league has the luxury of having two centers that have scored over or at a PPG pace. Only three. Baie-Comeau, Moncton and Val D'or (and I'm guessing they may actually roll with some of the three centers above a PPG on the same line a lot of the time, but I can't be sure).

Quebec is close, Rimouski is close, Rouyn-Noranda is close.

But having two centers who have scored over a PPG pace in the Q is a rarity. Makes it hard for a player who isn't getting top PP time and top line time to score over a PPG pace in his years as a 2nd line center for his team.

That's why I'm not worried. Am I dissapointed he hasn't scored more? Yes, but that doesn't mean he should be written off or even worried. He has others areas of his game that have shown progression that leave me seeing him as a prospect with legit NHL potential still. Not to mention if he makes the Canadian team again, it only bodes well for how he's seen as a prospect. But you'll probably wilfully ignore every argument I've made here and say "points!". I'd love to see any kind of response to half the points I made here that invalidate that rebuttal...

To keep this short and to the point, since no one here that I have seen has written they are worried about Gauthier's defensive acumen.

What some of are saying that is not registering with you is he not shown the progression offensively at 18 and 19 (12 games in)to be anything more than a defensive specialist in this league.

Now you are in your right to point out that maybe Gauthier is an outlier. His lowish QMJHL numbers will not be reflective in the NHL. But some of us like to be on the side of higher probability, so, yes, unless Freddy starts showing more offensive promise. He will probably never reach a higher status of #3C or #4C on a good team in the NHL. Is this fair?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Only for his lack of offensive development. In all other levels of his games he's shown progression. And again, he's getting Staaled. Makes it very hard to develop offensively. Dissapointing its not happening? Yes. Worrisome? meh, not really.

Just want to say this one more time.

No one is disappointed in Gauthier defensively, defensive bottom 6 role players are easier to come by in the summer. Ie. Mcclement, Winnik.

What is worrisome is he has flatlined offensively since he was drafted. Never more than 60 points. This is where the dissppointment is. Some of us hoped he would develop into a 2 way #2C.

This is the minimum you hope for when you make a first rd pick. Not a highside 3rd or more likely 4th line defensive specialist.

 

[7even]

Just want to say this one more time.

No one is disappointed in Gauthier defensively, defensive bottom 6 role players are easier to come by in the summer. Ie. Mcclement, Winnik.

What is worrisome is he has flatlined offensively since he was drafted. Never more than 60 points. This is where the dissppointment is. Some of us hoped he would develop into a 2 way #2C.

This is the minimum you hope for when you make a first rd pick. Not a highside 3rd or more likely 4th line defensive specialist.

I'm curious why you had so much faith in Biggs and now have so little in Gauthier, given their almost identical circumstances.