Prospect Info: 2014/15 Marlies/Prospects Thread v.3 - The Kids are Alright

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The Winter Soldier

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Apr 4, 2011
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Yeah that's what I thought. Classic Interactif...

Gauthier Guathier Gauthier

What we do know in terms of offensive production for Gauthier thus far, this is indisputable. For him to show offence in the NHL, unlike Connor Brown or Josh Leivo's chances of producing in the NHL, he will have to be an outlier.

11 points in 13 games this season .846 PPG
50 points in 52 games last season .962 PPG
60 points in 62 games draft year .967 PPG
 

theIceWookie

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What we do know in terms of offensive production for Gauthier thus far, this is indisputable. For him to show offence in the NHL, unlike Connor Brown or Josh Leivo's chances of producing in the NHL, he will have to be an outlier.

11 points in 13 games this season .846 PPG
50 points in 52 games last season .962 PPG
60 points in 62 games draft year .967 PPG

And this is why this is silly.

Leivo had 1.10 PPG in his 2nd year, and 1.16 in his last year.

A full difference of 0.138 in their 2nd draft years. Which is only 8 more more points over a 60 game season. 9 point Interactif. And yet Leivo's draft plus 1 where he scored at a pace of a FULL 8 points more than Gauthier somehow means he has NHL scoring potential and Gauthier doesn't? That's the definition of completely choosing an arbitrary point total without any reasoning for it.

Don't try and pretend 8 points means the difference between Gauthier having NHL scoring potential. It doesn't. Especially when you consider Leivo had top line time, top PP time, and Gauthier didn't (but clearly you're continuing to ignore that completely, since you haven't once acknowledged that this might be important).

But Leivo has SOOOO much more NHL scoring potential than Gauthier. Lol
 

The Winter Soldier

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And this is why this is silly.

Leivo had 1.10 PPG in his 2nd year, and 1.16 in his last year.

A full difference of 0.138 in their 2nd draft years. Which is only 8 more more points over a 60 game season. 9 point Interactif. And yet Leivo's draft plus 1 where he scored at a pace of a FULL 8 points more than Gauthier somehow means he has NHL scoring potential and Gauthier doesn't? That's the definition of completely choosing an arbitrary point total without any reasoning for it.

Don't try and pretend 8 points means the difference between Gauthier having NHL scoring potential. It doesn't. Especially when you consider Leivo had top line time, top PP time, and Gauthier didn't (but clearly you're continuing to ignore that completely, since you haven't once acknowledged that this might be important).

But Leivo has SOOOO much more NHL scoring potential than Gauthier. Lol

Leivo went from:

Draft year: .468 PPG
After Draft: 1.11 PPG

It's a thing called progression. You can't tell me you do not see a difference in both player's developmental curves?
 

Bigblue

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Sep 20, 2009
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Knodel playing much?

I was told that he was going to be an ECHL'er at best earlier this year...

His past 3 games have been very strong positionally and physically. He's a very big body with some decent skills and a heavy shot.
 

acrobaticgoalie

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Jun 18, 2014
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Because he's only 26th in SHL scoring! The great Nylander should be scoring at least at a 1.2 PPG pace. Pff Jeff Taffe is outscoring him? What a bust.

You do realize that Nylander missed the first 10 SHL games because he was with the leafs right? He would most likely have another 10 pts
 

SeaOfBlue

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His past 3 games have been very strong positionally and physically. He's a very big body with some decent skills and a heavy shot.

I like him, it's just too bad he's 24 and a left shot. If he had been a right-handed defenseman or couple years younger, he'd be an excellent prospect and would likely have a shot on the Leafs this year. The good news is, other than not showing up on the scoreboard (which is a problem for most players on the Marlies this year), he looks like he could play on the bottom line of the NHL sooner rather than later. Same with Andrew MacWilliam.
 

buttman*

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Connor Brown

Draft year: .779PG
After Draft: 1.10PPG
19 year old: 1.88PPG

Progression.

Ryan Getzlaf showed a negative progression in junior after the draft. He's is one of the top centers and players in all of hockey. Not that Gauthier compares to him but this straight line 'progression' is silly. Players take different paths.

For anyone expecting Gauthier to be a sniper or big point producer they just don't get it anyhow. His game is built on his defense, faceoffs and size. Every team needs a top defensive center. That's what the Leafs thought they were drafting when they picked this kid -- not the next Crosby.
 

ULF_55

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Ryan Getzlaf showed a negative progression in junior after the draft. He's is one of the top centers and players in all of hockey. Not that Gauthier compares to him but this straight line 'progression' is silly. Players take different paths.

For anyone expecting Gauthier to be a sniper or big point producer they just don't get it anyhow. His game is built on his defense, faceoffs and size. Every team needs a top defensive center. That's what the Leafs thought they were drafting when they picked this kid -- not the next Crosby.

I'd like to see progression.

I'm sure the Leafs expected progression, but they aren't heaping any undo pressure on him by saying so.

With the way the cap is, bottom 6 players are going to be available every year in the NHL.

I'd never knowingly use a 21st. pick on a player with a 3rd. line ceiling. Consensus seems to be that if everything works out Gauthier will be a 3rd. liner.

I think every person wants to see progression in a teenager.

At his PPG pace he'd probably be in the top 70 if he played all the games.

There is still lots of time, and I still expect better production.

Size, speed, intelligence and more size against younger, smaller players who'll never even be drafted for the most part. We have to keep in mind he has all these assets and most of his competition will never amount to anything above junior in hockey.

We have to have patience, perhaps:
  • his coach is holding him back
  • he just has no hands?
 

zeke

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And this is why this is silly.

Leivo had 1.10 PPG in his 2nd year, and 1.16 in his last year.

A full difference of 0.138 in their 2nd draft years. Which is only 8 more more points over a 60 game season. 9 point Interactif. And yet Leivo's draft plus 1 where he scored at a pace of a FULL 8 points more than Gauthier somehow means he has NHL scoring potential and Gauthier doesn't? That's the definition of completely choosing an arbitrary point total without any reasoning for it.

Don't try and pretend 8 points means the difference between Gauthier having NHL scoring potential. It doesn't. Especially when you consider Leivo had top line time, top PP time, and Gauthier didn't (but clearly you're continuing to ignore that completely, since you haven't once acknowledged that this might be important).

But Leivo has SOOOO much more NHL scoring potential than Gauthier. Lol

unfortunately, this only makes leivo look worse, it doesn't make gauthier look better.

thankfully leivo had a solid rookie ahl season to partly justify his 2nd line potential, but he's got a long ways to go to fulfill that potential.
 

garyjones93

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Jun 2, 2012
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Ryan Getzlaf showed a negative progression in junior after the draft. He's is one of the top centers and players in all of hockey. Not that Gauthier compares to him but this straight line 'progression' is silly. Players take different paths.

For anyone expecting Gauthier to be a sniper or big point producer they just don't get it anyhow. His game is built on his defense, faceoffs and size. Every team needs a top defensive center. That's what the Leafs thought they were drafting when they picked this kid -- not the next Crosby.

Wasn't that obvious? I have been hoping he develops into a top 3rd line center that fills into an ok number 2 if injuries occur. It would be a perfect scenario if we had 3 quality centers ex. Bozak, Kadri, Nylander (regardless of order) ahead of him so he sits on the 4th line. Also someone that can be trusted to play the majority of the final 10 minutes in a 4-1 lead in a game 7. If he puts up points that's just gravy.

People always will talk about how there were other scoring players around him, but we needed someone who, if he reaches his potential, will be a controlled asset at low cost. We all know how we fare with 3rd liners in free agency. Having him cheap allows us to have cap space for the skilled players. That in it's self that makes him valuable to the team if he reaches his defensive potential.

Now all this is speculation he is still a prospect, like many others we have, we will see where his path takes him. For now why not try cheering and supporting our prospects. Don't we as Leaf fans want them to succeed and reach their potential and possibly exceed it? We should be positive and when it's all said and done then you can make your judgement. That doesn't mean look through rose coloured glasses, if the player isn't playing well call them out, but you can still support them ie. "Player A played like absolute crap, forget that game and come out hard the next one". Just let the players play their game if the succeed great, if they don't they or management have to change something.

So as long as Gauthier plays his Defensive game then he played well if he put up points as well, then he played great. If he had a poor defensive game then he played like crap. If he plays bad defensively and puts up points he still only played mediocre, because his main priority is the defensive game, and of course the win.

An example of a player and pick I didn't really like and I don't think will pan out is Biggs. However I always want him to do well because he is a Leafs prospect. If he plays poor he either doesn't deserve to play or should be sent down until he earns it back. If he plays well he deserves ice time and possible more if he earns it. That's how we should look at all prospects regardless of draft number or where you're born or anything else. The only thing that matters is their play, and behavior on and off the ice. Of course their play is determined by the role the are playing.

[/rant]
 

ULF_55

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You don't draft a project for a position of need.

I really don't buy the Leafs drafted him because they faltered in the playoffs because Bozak was injured and they didn't have another competent center who was up to the task so Gauthier was their answer.

Gauthier is likely a 4-6 year ETA from draft, and who knows what the need will be in 2 years, let alone 5.
 

Menzinger

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You don't draft a project for a position of need.

I really don't buy the Leafs drafted him because they faltered in the playoffs because Bozak was injured and they didn't have another competent center who was up to the task so Gauthier was their answer.

Gauthier is likely a 4-6 year ETA from draft, and who knows what the need will be in 2 years, let alone 5.

Yes and no. Nonis made a few comments prior to last draft and prior to Gautiers about needing centre prospects... and look what happens.

Gautiers production levels have me concerned - but like with all prospects we will have to wait and see how they turn out
 

ULF_55

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Yes and no. Nonis made a few comments prior to last draft and prior to Gautiers about needing centre prospects... and look what happens.

Gautiers production levels have me concerned - but like with all prospects we will have to wait and see how they turn out

I'd agree you take the center ranked equal to or better than a winger. Centers can easily move to wing.
 

Community

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You don't draft a project for a position of need.

I really don't buy the Leafs drafted him because they faltered in the playoffs because Bozak was injured and they didn't have another competent center who was up to the task so Gauthier was their answer.

Gauthier is likely a 4-6 year ETA from draft, and who knows what the need will be in 2 years, let alone 5.

As far as I can tell, the Leafs didn't draft based off of need.... They had Mantha higher on their list and were going to take him before Detroit nabbed him. Mantha is an excellent prospect, but a scoring winger definitely isn't our biggest need nor was it at the time of the draft.

I would bet that he Leafs had him as the highest ranked player. He was a PPG forward playing as the shutdown forward at 17/18...

Obviously i'd love for Gauthier to show more offensive improvement, but if we get a shutdown 3rd line center with size, some offense, good face offs, and a good possession game in the last 10 picks of the first round.... I'm ecstatic about the pick.
 

Atomos2

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I was at the marlies game yesterday at Copps. Brown is great, works extra hard for every opportunity and every point he gets but it sucks that he's playing with Biggs and Ross. Those two have practically no offensive upside. But despite that he played great. Finn struggled last game...again, but I like that they have him in a top 4 spot already, that bodes well for the future. Bibeau was outstanding.
 

mikebel111*

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I was at the marlies game yesterday at Copps. Brown is great, works extra hard for every opportunity and every point he gets but it sucks that he's playing with Biggs and Ross. Those two have practically no offensive upside. But despite that he played great. Finn struggled last game...again, but I like that they have him in a top 4 spot already, that bodes well for the future. Bibeau was outstanding.


Finn has been average so far. Not great but not bad either. Just okay. He should be fine though as he is coming off an injury. One thing I have noticed is he gets played a good amount
 

zeke

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As far as I can tell, the Leafs didn't draft based off of need.... They had Mantha higher on their list and were going to take him before Detroit nabbed him. Mantha is an excellent prospect, but a scoring winger definitely isn't our biggest need nor was it at the time of the draft.

interesting mentioning Mantha. He's off to a real slow start in the AHL this year. Yes its his first time as a pro and yes he was injured but only 3pts in 9gms after destroying junior has to raise some eyebrows at least.
 

SeaOfBlue

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I was at the marlies game yesterday at Copps. Brown is great, works extra hard for every opportunity and every point he gets but it sucks that he's playing with Biggs and Ross. Those two have practically no offensive upside. But despite that he played great. Finn struggled last game...again, but I like that they have him in a top 4 spot already, that bodes well for the future. Bibeau was outstanding.

Wait... Why are they playing 3 pure wingers on one line. Maybe that's why we aren't scoring... What the heck is the coach thinking?!?!

Seriously, if these are the types of decisions he's making, he shouldn't be coaching...
 

zeke

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marlies with two goals already in the first period. Abbott and Leivo. maybe their offense is finally waking up. there's definitely more than enough scoring talent on the team.
 

mikebel111*

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Wait... Why are they playing 3 pure wingers on one line. Maybe that's why we aren't scoring... What the heck is the coach thinking?!?!

Seriously, if these are the types of decisions he's making, he shouldn't be coaching...

Actually he was playing with Biggs listening from the radio. So no its not like what you think it is
 

Atomos2

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Wait... Why are they playing 3 pure wingers on one line. Maybe that's why we aren't scoring... What the heck is the coach thinking?!?!

Seriously, if these are the types of decisions he's making, he shouldn't be coaching...

Biggs was taking faceoffs and Ross was on the other side. I was asking the same question just before the Bulldogs scored. (That was the line that was on the ice when it happened). But to be fair, we didn't really have a lot of options. Carrick and Rupert were our top 2 centres with Smith up with the Leafs.
 
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