Prospect Info: 2014/15 Marlies/Prospects Thread v.3 - The Kids are Alright

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HockeyCA

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Dec 15, 2009
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In addition to considering usage,
I'd also say it matters that not all players experience the same drop-off at the next level.

Why are Gauthier's 60 points not equal to another players 100 points? Why can he not outscore any number of other graduating players at the next level who are currently outpacing his PPG? (Legitimate question, wondering what factors are at play).

This is also true. A player to look at in that camp would be someone like Ryan O'Reilly, although, O'Reilly still put up better numbers at an earlier age, entered the NHL at an earlier age, and so we don't know how he would have done if he would have gone back to Junior Hockey. He did put up 66 points in 68 games the year before he made the Avalanche, so we can assume that he would have turned into an 85-90 point player, most likely. Personally, I have never seen Gauthier play, aside from some highlights I have found online. But I have never watched him over a prolonged period of time, like multiple games for example.

From what I have seen though, he looks like he is kind of an awkward skater. Sometimes players grow out of that, however, as they get older. Whether or not, in the end, Gauthier turns into a strong NHL player, or becomes the next Patrice Cormier, I think, is very much in the air.

It has to be concerning, however, that as a returning player for the World Juniors there is a real good shot that he doesn't make the team. That doesn't happen to good-great players. So that's a concern. Plus, his lack of production, that's also a concern. The fact that he can't crack the top PP unit for a CHL junior team as a first round pick is also a major concern. His intangibles/defensive play is going to have be off the charts moving forward if his offensive production doesn't pick up in order to be an impactful NHL player and prospect.
 

Bigblue

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Sep 20, 2009
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In addition to considering usage,
I'd also say it matters that not all players experience the same drop-off at the next level.

Why are Gauthier's 60 points not equal to another players 100 points? Why can he not outscore any number of other graduating players at the next level who are currently outpacing his PPG? (Legitimate question, wondering what factors are at play).


I don't get home the people that are down on Gauthier can't seem to fathom the concept of 'specialist'? Gauthier has been a specialist on defense and face-offs and in shutdown hockey since he was a shut down guy at 17 in the Q.

Doug Gilmour was a dynamic offensive Junior with Cornwall who came to the NHL and was asked to be a checker/shutdown guy. And for 3 years he was very good at it. He then asked to play his natural offensive game and was turned loose for 105 pts more than double his totals the previous 3 years.

He didn't get the points because he wasn't capable of it...he didn't get the points because he wasn't put in a position to get points. Gauthier takes key defensive zone face-offs, kills penalties and shuts down the other teams top centres. That's his role. He's a good solid skater who has puck skills and passing skills that will translate to the NHL . 6'-5" centres with that skill set are pretty rare. He also has 6G and 4A for 10 pts in 12 games. Not too bad for a guy on the #1 team in the Q and a deep scoring team.

Some posters should stop pretending to use stats to translate a junior hockey specialist to an NHL scoring role. Spend a bit more time in the rink watching junior players and learning what a prospect looks like when he's not wrapped in high profile scoring stats.
 

HockeyCA

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Dec 15, 2009
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I don't get home the people that are down on Gauthier can't seem to fathom the concept of 'specialist'? Gauthier has been a specialist on defense and face-offs and in shutdown hockey since he was a shut down guy at 17 in the Q.

Doug Gilmour was a dynamic offensive Junior with Cornwall who came to the NHL and was asked to be a checker/shutdown guy. And for 3 years he was very good at it. He then asked to play his natural offensive game and was turned loose for 105 pts more than double his totals the previous 3 years.

He didn't get the points because he wasn't capable of it...he didn't get the points because he wasn't put in a position to get points. Gauthier takes key defensive zone face-offs, kills penalties and shuts down the other teams top centres. That's his role. He's a good solid skater who has puck skills and passing skills that will translate to the NHL . 6'-5" centres with that skill set are pretty rare. He also has 6G and 4A for 10 pts in 12 games. Not too bad for a guy on the #1 team in the Q and a deep scoring team.

Some posters should stop pretending to use stats to translate a junior hockey specialist to an NHL scoring role. Spend a bit more time in the rink watching junior players and learning what a prospect looks like when he's not wrapped in high profile scoring stats.

The problem is most players who play a "specialist" type game in the NHL also put up pretty good numbers in Junior Hockey. The jump from Junior Hockey to the NHL is large, very large. Even the great defensive players in the NHL were great defensive and offensive players in Junior Hockey, because they were just more gifted, period, in all facets. It is a red flag when a player struggles scoring at the junior hockey level as a 19-20 yea old, since they are going against either players their own age or younger. If they don't have the talent to do it at that level, it makes it even more difficult once you become a pro and your playing against 23-35 year olds every night.

By the way, I'm not bashing defensive first players. In fact, if I were building a team, players who are well rounded would be the first ones I would target. That is how you win Stanley Cups. But those players also need to have the skill set to contribute offensively, at least a little bit. Having a first round pick who can't score in Junior Hockey might be a tad concerning.
 

Bigblue

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Sep 20, 2009
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The problem is most players who play a "specialist" type game in the NHL also put up pretty good numbers in Junior Hockey. The jump from Junior Hockey to the NHL is large, very large. Even the great defensive players in the NHL were great defensive and offensive players in Junior Hockey, because they were just more gifted, period, in all facets. It is a red flag when a player struggles scoring at the junior hockey level as a 19-20 yea old, since they are going against either players their own age or younger. If they don't have the talent to do it at that level, it makes it even more difficult once you become a pro and your playing against 23-35 year olds every night.

By the way, I'm not bashing defensive first players. In fact, if I were building a team, players who are well rounded would be the first ones I would target. That is how you win Stanley Cups. But those players also need to have the skill set to contribute offensively, at least a little bit. Having a first round pick who can't score in Junior Hockey might be a tad concerning.

LOL I think you missed the point of my post. He's not struggling. He's coming off a painful, mobility restricting injury and he's scoring at almost a point a game clip. Your argument may have more traction 20 years ago in the Q but no more.

Bergeron is a perfect example. He was not a star minor hockey player. He was a late pick in the Q and played one season for Bathurst. Played at a point a game clip and played the best "D" in the entire league. His first year in boston he was dynamite, his second year he scored at a greater pace than he ever did in Junior. It's about your role.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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bergeron was 17.

when gauthier was near ppg at 17, that was good.

at 19, that's bad.
 

theIceWookie

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Dec 19, 2010
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bergeron was 17.

when gauthier was near ppg at 17, that was good.

at 19, that's bad.

Yes thanks tips, for telling us what everyone and their mother who stat watches can say. What they can't tell you is that he's not getting used in an offensive role, doesn't get powerplay time, and really isn't getting the chances that many 19 year old players do.

Yet he's improving almost all other apsects of his game. His faceoffs, his defensive game etc. And he's dominant in it. Like to the point where he probably could be considered one of the best in the CHL. He plays top PK time, is often on in circumstances at the end of the game that you only get into if you're trusted by your coach defensively, and he did just get another invitation to selection camp.

We all here you guys when you say "points, points, points". We get it. The thing most of us are wondering is why everything else is ignored, when many (not you but others) love to point out that hockey is more than points (one particular poster...) Gauthier is that, in an enormous way. Maybe that is something that he can capitalize on and make the NHL in. Which is what we're saying. And saying maybe not determine the kid's fate before he's even fifteen games into only his second post draft season where he missed training camp because of an injury.

Context is important and way to often ignored by certain posters. That's not "being unrealistic" as some might suggest. Just saying calling a 19 year old with only two years of CHL experience, and only 12 games into his third CHL season a "in tough" to make the NHL absolutely idiotic on the largest level.
 

ErnieLeafs

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Apr 7, 2009
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Gauthier will pants an offensive centre with a smothering brand of defence. Hopefully he can dial up the intensity on the forecheck, because if he can, you have a guy that can create turnovers and busted breakouts for the opposition.

Finding his way to the dirty areas will lead to pucks finding the back of the net. He needs to play like a Komarov, but in his body.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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For the record, the Marlies finally won a game and stopped their worst ever losing streak at 9.

Brown was first star and finished with 1 goal and 1 assist. He's up to 14 points in 20 games as a pro rookie, which is really good.
 

SprDaVE

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Can anyone provide an opinion on how Matt Finn and Connor Brown have been thus far?

Brown has been great. First in points on the team as a rookie. Great overall game. I could see him in a Leafs jersey within 2 years for sure.

Finn has been in and out of the lineup with a leg injury I believe. 12 games and 1 point. From what I've read he's been all right, not great or bad. Loov has been far better then Finn so far.
 

Puzzles

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Jun 22, 2012
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has anyone been following the boys in ECHL? I thought the whole point of sending Sparks off to Florida was so he'd get the majority of the starts...but seems like he's only got 6GP :shakehead
 

SprDaVE

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has anyone been following the boys in ECHL? I thought the whole point of sending Sparks off to Florida was so he'd get the majority of the starts...but seems like he's only got 6GP :shakehead

He's been injured for most of the season.
 

The Winter Soldier

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Apr 4, 2011
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Brown has been great. First in points on the team as a rookie. Great overall game. I could see him in a Leafs jersey within 2 years for sure.

Finn has been in and out of the lineup with a leg injury I believe. 12 games and 1 point. From what I've read he's been all right, not great or bad. Loov has been far better then Finn so far.

Brown like Leivo is a prospect that has progressed in point totals since he was drafted. This is what you want to see in all our prospects.
 

TheCLAM

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Oct 11, 2012
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Brown like Leivo is a prospect that has progressed in point totals since he was drafted. This is what you want to see in all our prospects.

Agreed from a progression standpoint.

It's exciting because Brown has a high offensive upside and is off to a great start for a rookie making the jump.

Leivo/Brown/Johnsson/Toninato starting to show real signs of being atleast top 9 players/
 

BigWilly

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May 6, 2012
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For the record, the Marlies finally won a game and stopped their worst ever losing streak at 9.

Brown was first star and finished with 1 goal and 1 assist. He's up to 14 points in 20 games as a pro rookie, which is really good.

On a terrible offensive team to boot.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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On a terrible offensive team to boot.

Technically terrible but they are far better then what they have shown. Many of them are much lower compared to their previous paces, especially Abbott, Carric, Frattin and even Leivo.

I think the Marlies will turn it around, but that huge losing streak puts them very far behind.
 

Bigblue

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Carrick also had two assists, MacWilliam with an assist .. Frattin also scored

I watched most of that game on Hockey Streams and was very impressed with Brown and Kozun. Frattin also looked dangerous.

Nillson, Loov and MacWilliam were solid. Knodel was also good. Nice to have some depth on "D" for the Leafs. Holzer if doing just fine with the leafs.
 

The Winter Soldier

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Apr 4, 2011
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Agreed from a progression standpoint.

It's exciting because Brown has a high offensive upside and is off to a great start for a rookie making the jump.

Leivo/Brown/Johnsson/Toninato starting to show real signs of being atleast top 9 players/

Toninato impressed me this camp, kid's a player. Will be interesting to see him at next year's camp. He has progressed yearly.
 

BigWilly

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Technically terrible but they are far better then what they have shown. Many of them are much lower compared to their previous paces, especially Abbott, Carric, Frattin and even Leivo.

I think the Marlies will turn it around, but that huge losing streak puts them very far behind.

I agree, I was speaking strictly from a statistical standpoint.
 

ChrisCall

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Jun 25, 2012
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Sadly the losing streak puts them probably out of contention for a 4th division title...
But hopefully the playoff mountain is not also too high to climb.
I'd be surprised if they don't turn it around, but the hole is pretty deep.
 

HockeyCA

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Dec 15, 2009
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I watched most of that game on Hockey Streams and was very impressed with Brown and Kozun. Frattin also looked dangerous.

Nillson, Loov and MacWilliam were solid. Knodel was also good. Nice to have some depth on "D" for the Leafs. Holzer if doing just fine with the leafs.

I was switching back and forth between the Marlies and the Leafs, and Kozun was easily the best player on the ice for either side.
 

Number13

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Carrick also had two assists, MacWilliam with an assist .. Frattin also scored

Also liked seeing Devane beat the tar out of a guy who ran the goalie. We need a bit more of that on the big club as we're already starting to see liberties being taken against our stars (Komarov, Kessel).

Would like to see Devane get some 4th line minutes by the end of the year. He would've taken car of Tom Wilson the other night against the caps.
 

WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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Also liked seeing Devane beat the tar out of a guy who ran the goalie. We need a bit more of that on the big club as we're already starting to see liberties being taken against our stars (Komarov, Kessel).

Would like to see Devane get some 4th line minutes by the end of the year. He would've taken car of Tom Wilson the other night against the caps.

I love Devane.
 
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