Value of: Zadorov and/or Jost

[EdJovanovski]

Ryan Strome for Zadorov?

 

[BigFatCat999]

Bonino would be just for 1 year though. Zadorov in Nashville would be a pain in the rear for several years. His great defending in transition would make him a monster for a transition-heavy offensive team like Colorado to play against.

How much y'all expect he get's in RFA?

 

[Richard88]

Ryan Strome for Zadorov?

We need a 3C but Strome isn't a good fit. He's also just had a career year that is very unsustainable, and I wouldn't want to be the GM to pay for that year.

Looking at his career overall Strome is a sub-0.5ppg player up to now who's had one inflated year while riding shotgun with Panarin. There are many tell-tale signs of this being a one-off career year for him, including:

- His career average is 0.52ppg. This season he's at 0.84 ppg.
- His last 6 seasons his points totals were 28, 30, 34, 35, 35, and 59....... Not hard to spot the outlier.
- This season he is being spoon-fed minutes with sheltered offensive minutes with 54.6 oZS% and 19:35 ATOI, by far the highest in his career.
- Shooting % in 2 years with Rangers is 15.4%, which is 5.1% higher than his career average.
- 104.4 PDO this season, which is 9th highest in the league among forwards with at least 50 games.
- He has raked in PP points playing with Panarin, Zibanejad, and Deangelo, with 14 PP assists. Before this season he had only 26 PP assists in 7 seasons combined. Needless to say it's likely that he sees a big drop in assists if Colorado acquired him as he wouldn't get PP1 time at Colorado.

All of those combined are signs of a player with heavily inflated stats, and it's unlikely that he'd be anything more than a 35-40 point player without PP1 time and tons of offensive ice time.

He's basically an offensive 3C that depends a lot on linemates for production. Based on the stats above I doubt GM's are going to be lining up to acquire him to be the sucker that gives him a raise, particularly as there's every chance that he reverts back to his Edmonton production if he doesn't get a lot of heavily sheltered offensive minutes.

 

[Richard88]

How much y'all expect he get's in RFA?

He's still under team control for another 2 years and has a $3.2m QO. It really depends on term. If you go with 1 year and have him as an RFA again in 2021 then he likely doesn't get very much more than $3.2m. With some term though you're probably looking at somewhere between $3.5m - $3.75m. Similar to Will Butcher for example.

 

[EdJovanovski]

We need a 3C but Strome isn't a good fit. He's also just had a career year that is very unsustainable, and I wouldn't want to be the GM to pay for that year.

Looking at his career overall Strome is a sub-0.5ppg player up to now who's had one inflated year while riding shotgun with Panarin. There are many tell-tale signs of this being a one-off career year for him, including:

- His career average is 0.52ppg. This season he's at 0.84 ppg.
- His last 6 seasons his points totals were 28, 30, 34, 35, 35, and 59....... Not hard to spot the outlier.
- This season he is being spoon-fed minutes with sheltered offensive minutes with 54.6 oZS% and 19:35 ATOI, by far the highest in his career.
- Shooting % in 2 years with Rangers is 15.4%, which is 5.1% higher than his career average.
- 104.4 PDO this season, which is 9th highest in the league among forwards with at least 50 games.
- He has raked in PP points playing with Panarin, Zibanejad, and Deangelo, with 14 PP assists. Before this season he had only 26 PP assists in 7 seasons combined. Needless to say it's likely that he sees a big drop in assists if Colorado acquired him as he wouldn't get PP1 time at Colorado.

All of those combined are signs of a player with heavily inflated stats, and it's unlikely that he'd be anything more than a 35-40 point player without PP1 time and tons of offensive ice time.

He's basically an offensive 3C that depends a lot on linemates for production. Based on the stats above I doubt GM's are going to be lining up to acquire him to be the sucker that gives him a raise, particularly as there's every chance that he reverts back to his Edmonton production if he doesn't get a lot of heavily sheltered offensive minutes.

I don’t know everything about how contracts work but couldn’t you just qualify him for one year? It’s not like you’d have to sign him to a massive contract coming off a career year. It wouldn’t hurt adding some secondary scoring, he killed penalties too
What other pieces from the Rangers would interest you for Zadorov?

 

[BigFatCat999]

He's still under team control for another 2 years and has a $3.2m QO. It really depends on term. If you go with 1 year and have him as an RFA again in 2021 then he likely doesn't get very much more than $3.2m. With some term though you're probably looking at somewhere between $3.5m - $3.75m. Similar to Will Butcher for example.

Thank you

 

[Richard88]

I don’t know everything about how contracts work but couldn’t you just qualify him for one year? It’s not like you’d have to sign him to a massive contract coming off a career year. It wouldn’t hurt adding some secondary scoring, he killed penalties too
What other pieces from the Rangers would interest you for Zadorov?

Qualifying him just means that we keep his rights. Zadorov would be free to decline the QO and elect to go to arbitration, in which case he might get more, or less, but only a 1 or 2 year deal.

Avs lack a 2nd in this years draft, so the ideal return for Zadorov would be a 2nd+. Rangers don't have a 2020 or 2021 2nd though so that doesn't work. As an alternative maybe something around one of your D prospects (eg. Robertson/Lundkvist/Miller) would work. I'd imagine that Rangers aren't too keen on moving Barron given their shallow C depth, but given the connection to Matthew Stienburg who we drafted last year for character reasons I would guess Barron would be of interest to Sakic.

 

[bernmeister]

How bout Zadorov to NYR For Lias Anderson. Rangers can add a pick in the middle rounds if Anderson isn’t enough

I don't think Anderson has the skating to play on this Colorado team. One of your other D prospects would be far more interesting (eg. Lundkvist, K'Andre, or Robertson). Alternatively I think Sakic would have an interest in Barron (+pick) given his connection to Matthew Stienburg who we drafted last year for character reasons.

Always liked K'Andre Miller.

We need a 3C but Strome isn't a good fit. He's also just had a career year that is very unsustainable, and I wouldn't want to be the GM to pay for that year.

Looking at his career overall Strome is a sub-0.5ppg player up to now who's had one inflated year while riding shotgun with Panarin. There are many tell-tale signs of this being a one-off career year for him, including:

- His career average is 0.52ppg. This season he's at 0.84 ppg.
- His last 6 seasons his points totals were 28, 30, 34, 35, 35, and 59....... Not hard to spot the outlier.
- This season he is being spoon-fed minutes with sheltered offensive minutes with 54.6 oZS% and 19:35 ATOI, by far the highest in his career.
- Shooting % in 2 years with Rangers is 15.4%, which is 5.1% higher than his career average.
- 104.4 PDO this season, which is 9th highest in the league among forwards with at least 50 games.
- He has raked in PP points playing with Panarin, Zibanejad, and Deangelo, with 14 PP assists. Before this season he had only 26 PP assists in 7 seasons combined. Needless to say it's likely that he sees a big drop in assists if Colorado acquired him as he wouldn't get PP1 time at Colorado.

All of those combined are signs of a player with heavily inflated stats, and it's unlikely that he'd be anything more than a 35-40 point player without PP1 time and tons of offensive ice time.

He's basically an offensive 3C that depends a lot on linemates for production. Based on the stats above I doubt GM's are going to be lining up to acquire him to be the sucker that gives him a raise, particularly as there's every chance that he reverts back to his Edmonton production if he doesn't get a lot of heavily sheltered offensive minutes.

Qualifying him just means that we keep his rights. Zadorov would be free to decline the QO and elect to go to arbitration, in which case he might get more, or less, but only a 1 or 2 year deal.

Avs lack a 2nd in this years draft, so the ideal return for Zadorov would be a 2nd+. Rangers don't have a 2020 or 2021 2nd though so that doesn't work. As an alternative maybe something around one of your D prospects (eg. Robertson/Lundkvist/Miller) would work. I'd imagine that Rangers aren't too keen on moving Barron given their shallow C depth, but given the connection to Matthew Stienburg who we drafted last year for character reasons I would guess Barron would be of interest to Sakic.

We are not giving up our bluest blue chips incl K'A Miller, NIls L, Barron, Krav, Kakko, etc. and we are certainly not gonna do that for a project like Zadorov. He's interesting as a risk reward project but not compelling.

As noted elsewhere it is not unfair to say Strome away from breadman is reduced Strome production, but that is true w/almost any and every NHL F. Strome is comp value 2nd + righty shot C who can also RW. More 2nd than 3rd line material. However, if not for you, fine...

what about something around Buchnevich?
also, Anderson is back from the dead. I agree he still has to prove he's learned how to skate at NHL level but has been tearing up Swedish league. I would take less for him on principle since he's an effin ingrate.
Otherwise fair value pls.
top prospects w/o issues are worth way more than a 2nd.

 

[John Mandalorian]

We are not giving up our bluest blue chips incl K'A Miller, NIls L, Barron, Krav, Kakko, etc. and we are certainly not gonna do that for a project like Zadorov. He's interesting as a risk reward project but not compelling.

As noted elsewhere it is not unfair to say Strome away from breadman is reduced Strome production, but that is true w/almost any and every NHL F. Strome is comp value 2nd + righty shot C who can also RW. More 2nd than 3rd line material. However, if not for you, fine...

what about something around Buchnevich?
also, Anderson is back from the dead. I agree he still has to prove he's learned how to skate at NHL level but has been tearing up Swedish league. I would take less for him on principle since he's an effin ingrate.
Otherwise fair value pls.
top prospects w/o issues are worth way more than a 2nd.

What about your cornflower blue chips?

 

[biturbo19]

Fair point on arbitration, it's a legitimate concern. That said, typically it's points that get players paid, and Zadorov hasn't sniffed 20 points and has been 5th or 6th Dman in TOI in Colorado so I don't foresee arbitrators being too generous with him. Something in the $3.5m range would be acceptable to him most likely, given that he'd be getting a small raise despite the flat cap. As you said though there is a risk with arbitration though.

Typically, you're right. It is points that get a player paid. But in the case of a player like Zadorov, it's not hard to make the case that he's a "unique contributor" on other merit.

Whether people here accept its value or not, "hits" are an officially tabulated NHL counting stat...and in that regard, Zadorov is an absolute titan. He's been solidly among the top of all NHL defencemen each of the last three years. He was the crowned king of it, a couple years back...and he's been comfortably in the Top-10 lounging around the Top-5 both years since...despite more limited minutes after that 2017-18 year, compared to other top hit makers. He's, as far as i can tell...the single highest "hit" total defenceman in the league from 2017-2020.

It may indicate "lack of possession dominance" to a lot of analytics folks...but in an arbitration hearing, that's a potentially compelling argument that Zadorov does, as you and i agree..."bring a unique element of physicality" to a team. Which is fair game, in an arbitration hearing. And frankly...it probably should be...because it very much is something i'd want in my #5 defenceman who can step up occasionally. But it's really easy for those hearings to run out of control and detach from reality.


Whether that actually results in an inflated cap number or not, it's hard to say. But the threat of it all looming, is what makes his "value" in trade so complicated. Nobody wants to trade decent assets, only to have a potential arbitration mess on their hands (with no walk-away option). If it's enough to make other teams wary...that's enough to diminish trade value, because it's inheriting additional risk, until it's "settled". And if it's "settled" at $3.2-3.5 for one year...wouldn't Colorado just be happy enough to keep him anyway? Even with a lot of other good young defencemen, and others coming down the pipeline? He does bring a unique presence to an otherwise, kinda different blueline.

 

[Richard88]

We are not giving up our bluest blue chips incl K'A Miller, NIls L, Barron, Krav, Kakko, etc. and we are certainly not gonna do that for a project like Zadorov. He's interesting as a risk reward project but not compelling.

As noted elsewhere it is not unfair to say Strome away from breadman is reduced Strome production, but that is true w/almost any and every NHL F. Strome is comp value 2nd + righty shot C who can also RW. More 2nd than 3rd line material. However, if not for you, fine...

what about something around Buchnevich?
also, Anderson is back from the dead. I agree he still has to prove he's learned how to skate at NHL level but has been tearing up Swedish league. I would take less for him on principle since he's an effin ingrate.
Otherwise fair value pls.
top prospects w/o issues are worth way more than a 2nd.

What would a trade around Buchnevich look like?

 

[bernmeister]

What about your cornflower blue chips?

Have you no shame?
Appealing to my inner Homer Simpson....

Mmmmmmmmmmmmnnnnnnnnnn... chips!

 

[bernmeister]

What would a trade around Buchnevich look like?

To busy to fully think it thru, atm, so please, you carry the ball first.
I would say this:

Zad has interesting physical potential, but consistency and getting that out and then you trade for a guy you either have to protect him or expose him in the exp dr; if the latter and claimed you save opportunity cost of losing someone else but you lose what you paid to acquire Z.

Buch also consistency but I think he has demonstrated enuf skill to show that if w/correct line especially, results optimized b'c familiarity = comfort = increased chemistry = better/best results.
In short he is less of a maybe than Z.
Also, you protect him, you get 7 skaters exp drf compared to 3 Ds.

So adds on both sides to balance, but B > Z.

What are your thoughts?

 

[Richard88]

To busy to fully think it thru, atm, so please, you carry the ball first.
I would say this:

Zad has interesting physical potential, but consistency and getting that out and then you trade for a guy you either have to protect him or expose him in the exp dr; if the latter and claimed you save opportunity cost of losing someone else but you lose what you paid to acquire Z.

Buch also consistency but I think he has demonstrated enuf skill to show that if w/correct line especially, results optimized b'c familiarity = comfort = increased chemistry = better/best results.
In short he is less of a maybe than Z.
Also, you protect him, you get 7 skaters exp drf compared to 3 Ds.

So adds on both sides to balance, but B > Z.

What are your thoughts?

That seems like a reasonable assessment. Maybe we include Jost and you throw us a 3rd or something like that. I'm a bit wary of being the one to give Buchnevich a raise in 2021 though (the same time Grubauer/Makar/Landeskog/Timmins need raises).

 

[bernmeister]

That seems like a reasonable assessment. Maybe we include Jost and you throw us a 3rd or something like that. I'm a bit wary of being the one to give Buchnevich a raise in 2021 though (the same time Grubauer/Makar/Landeskog/Timmins need raises).

thanks for prompt reply and positive review

signing off til later crushed for coupla days, pls feel free to develop further.

No interest in Jost, but at the right price we can swap something for him.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

That seems like a reasonable assessment. Maybe we include Jost and you throw us a 3rd or something like that. I'm a bit wary of being the one to give Buchnevich a raise in 2021 though (the same time Grubauer/Makar/Landeskog/Timmins need raises).

I'd also be a bit wary of putting more roadblocks in the way of guys like Kaut and Bowers and Newhook. I get the idea of trying to upgrade everywhere we can, but it has to fit in the long term plan. We're going to need our kids playing on ELC contracts more than we're going to need Buch on his first big contract. And, I'd like to give them a season to get their feet wet in a lesser role before we expect too much, and stocking the lineup with established NHLers that we can't afford to keep long term makes that more difficult.