Over the past couple weeks I've been doing a lot of researching about potential Sabres targets for next year. I've listened to the Podcasts, looked at all the advanced stats (Subbed to AllThreeZones, Evolving-Hockey and JFresh - I especially recommend Jfresh's Patreon btw). Tried to get a gauge of how other teams are valuing players/prospects, while taking into consideration our lineup needs in terms of size, toughness, skill etc. This is what I have so far.
1. The absolute, number 1 target for the Sabres needs to be Connor Murphy. I do not want a Tim Murray style rebuild where we throw all of our picks/prospects out in trades and fall flat on our face - but Connor Murphy is absolutely somebody I wouldn't mind giving one of our other 1sts and a bit to acquire. Blackhawks fans seem to think he's worth about a 1st, maybe a tad more (I added a photo of his WAR to this post, from Jfresh's Twitter account last year). He maybe isn't quite as physical as we want, but he can still deliver good hits. He's big, he has term on his contract at a very affordable price, he's a good locker room guy (his interviews, plus trying to go around the Blackhawks forums/searching Twitter has led me to this conclusion). I get that the last time the Sabres traded a first for a defenseman it was a disaster. At 28/29 - Connor Murphy isn't a project. He's going to be a top-four, right shot defensive defenseman in a shutdown role for the remainder of his contract. Even if he regresses, I believe we get our value's worth.
View attachment 509680
2. My family has had Sabres season tickets for as long as I can remember. I'm fairly excited about the Sabres future, but one thing that has stood out to me is our lack of physicality and size (especially on defense). I attended the game against the Avalanche, I noted that Bryson, Jokiharju and Fitzgerald were all just getting bullied off the puck far too easily. In my mind, if we acquire Connor Murphy to be our top-pairing RHD, we're going to want a big, tough guy to play either on the second or third pairing (I'm not really sure if Jokiharju is a second or third pairing kind of guy at this point, to be honest). I'm thinking for this, we will likely have to go the UFA route as to not deplete ourselves of assets. Although it will be difficult to find players that want to sign in Buffalo at the moment.
Option A - David Savard. He's had a rough year in Montreal this year, no doubt. If you take a look at his three-year average, it paints a pretty clear picture of who he is. He's a stay at home, defensive defenseman with next to no offense. Honestly - that's fine. He's going to play on our second or third line, he's going to bring some size (he's 235, one of the heaviest in the NHL) and net-front clearing ability that we need.
View attachment 509684
Option B - Justin Braun. He's older, but is putting up better relative numbers this year than David Savard. With him still being effective, it's tougher to see him signing here, although it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
View attachment 509685
Option C - Mark Pysyk. We know who he is at this point in his career. His underlying numbers are good. He's a good locker room guy. He's not going to be very tough/physical. He's your third pairing RHD - and will play that role well.
View attachment 509687
Obviously Josh Manson fits this role perfectly as well, but there's a next to zero chance he signs here, so I'm not going to entertain that thought.
Our defense corps could end up looking something like:
Dahlin - Murphy
Power - Jokiharju
Samuelsson - Savard/Pysyk/Braun
For our forwards, there's not too many spots up for grabs. I imagine our lines looking something like:
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Krebs - Cozens - Quinn
Asplund - Mittelstadt - Okposo
Girgensons - ?? - Hayden
For our 4C - I'd really love to acquire Nico Sturm. His underlying numbers are fantastic, would fill a need, and possibly an underrated factor is he would bring a fellow German on the team for when Peterka joins our squad. I'm not sure how much of a factor that is, but I've always thought being the only person from your country would be a little lonely at the NHL level - but I digress. Another option at 4C could be bringing back Jankowski, who I've been pleasantly surprised with this year. I'm including Hayden in the lineup as he's one of the few players on our team that brings real grit/toughness. Perhaps Brett Murray could play a similar role in the future?
View attachment 509688
Our forwards lack physicality, faceoff ability (I'm old school enough to think that *most* faceoffs actually do matter) and experience. Mittelstadt is still a huge question mark, Asplund has solid underlying numbers but lacks physicality, the Krebs - Cozens - Quinn line are babies, and Thompson hasn't proven that he can keep up this level of play long-term. However, there's not many options here. None of the players are realistically being traded, so we have to make due with what we have. I'd love to add an experienced forward with more "Jam" that Peters/Rivet like to bring up on their Podcast, but there's not too many options out there. Cal Clutterbuck? Zack Kassian fits that role perfectly if we want another reunion here. Edmonton probably wouldn't mind moving that contract.
As for Goalie, there's two good options in the UFA route in Jack Campbell and Ville Husso. Due to our cap space available for the next couple of years - I wouldn't mind overpaying Campbell for 2 years to be our starter while UPL eventually earns that role (or possibly Levi or Portillo). Husso would demand a longer contract. He has performed far better than Binnington this year in front of the same defense, but perhaps the Sabres would be scared off by bringing on another former Blues backup to be our starter. Both come with risks, but ideally neither are your starter for longer than two years anyways.
View attachment 509690 View attachment 509691
Finally - and this may be the most important point - is I hope the Pegula's take this seriously. My biggest fear is that the Pegula's continue their "spending freeze" and do next to nothing both at the trade deadline and during free agency. Listening to Brian Gionta on the Peters/Rivet podcast was telling in the sense that coming into the locker room day after day while you're losing can be draining. You can lose your passion for the game, you have a strained relationship with your coaches, and hockey just isn't as fun. While the Pegula's could very well say let's stay the course, use all of our picks and let our team grow organically - they'll miss the point that we need to surround our young players with others that compliment their ability, and can help mentor them/protect them during the game. I don't think the Sabres should spend like crazy and/or trade a bunch of picks. Rather, make 3-4 smart, calculated moves that can both help our team be competitive in the short-term and long-term. If the Pegula's pull another BS stunt like signing two goalies to league-minimum contracts and hiding during the entire season, it'll be close to a death blow to this franchise.
