Your expectations of Crosby after 2007

wetcoast

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Well we shall see won't we. You do realize that Hull was #5 in the exercise we are currently going through whereas Ovechkin was #22. Thats quite a bit of ground to make up. Do you also realize that Ovechkin would have to leapfrog your boy (Crosby)to pass Hull.

Crosby isn't my boy any more than Gretzky being the boy for guys that voted him first.

As for Ovechkin being ranked 22nd in the current project and Hull 5th, 2 things.

One, the group voting really prefers complete players to specialists like Ovechkin and Hull.

Second, Hull's point finishes really mask the fact that he and Ovechkin are very similar type of players.

Those point finishes basically come in a 6 team league, comprised entirely of players from Canada.

Ovechkin is competing with elite point producers from a more competitive field year in year out.

Maybe after he retires people will get a more complete view of him.

I find it puzzling that winning more Richards puts Ovechkin over Hull in the minds of many people yet it makes no difference in comparing Ovechkin to Crosby etc. It actually amuses me.

Hull doesn't have the 2 way play of Crosby nor the playoff resume that's the huge difference , at least for me.

The case for both Hull and Ovechkin in terms of being an all time greats rests almost entirely in their ability as goal scorers.
 

pappyline

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Crosby isn't my boy any more than Gretzky being the boy for guys that voted him first.

As for Ovechkin being ranked 22nd in the current project and Hull 5th, 2 things.

One, the group voting really prefers complete players to specialists like Ovechkin and Hull.

Second, Hull's point finishes really mask the fact that he and Ovechkin are very similar type of players.

Those point finishes basically come in a 6 team league, comprised entirely of players from Canada.

Ovechkin is competing with elite point producers from a more competitive field year in year out.

Maybe after he retires people will get a more complete view of him.



Hull doesn't have the 2 way play of Crosby nor the playoff resume that's the huge difference , at least for me.

The case for both Hull and Ovechkin in terms of being an all time greats rests almost entirely in their ability as goal scorers.

I disagree with every one of your comments. You even contradict yourself by saying Hull is a one dimensional goal scoring specialists yet the group voting prefers complete players. Well they did vote Hull as #5 so which is it?

I see you are one of these guys with a modern era bias so we are never going to agree on anything.
 

wetcoast

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I disagree with every one of your comments. You even contradict yourself by saying Hull is a one dimensional goal scoring specialists yet the group voting prefers complete players. Well they did vote Hull as #5 so which is it?

I see you are one of these guys with a modern era bias so we are never going to agree on anything.

Modern era bias?

That's a weak hill to stand on here.

Look I explained why I think the group sees Hull as the more complete player in that top 10 point finishes were a lot easier in a 6 team league than a 30 team league.

Also the level of increased competition in terms of elite players is quite clear and that's before the rapid expansion that helped Hull look better as he aged.
 

pappyline

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Modern era bias?

That's a weak hill to stand on here.

Look I explained why I think the group sees Hull as the more complete player in that top 10 point finishes were a lot easier in a 6 team league than a 30 team league.

Also the level of increased competition in terms of elite players is quite clear and that's before the rapid expansion that helped Hull look better as he aged.

There is nothing more to discuss here. Go back to the Crosby/Ovechkin debate. They are both playing at the same time. And the easier 6 team league doesn't enter into it.:sarcasm:
 

wetcoast

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There is nothing more to discuss here. Go back to the Crosby/Ovechkin debate. They are both playing at the same time. And the easier 6 team league doesn't enter into it.:sarcasm:

And you are calling me biased?

Agreed though, let's see how Ovechkin's career plays out.

Just one final question, what in your mind, roughly would Ovechkin need to do to match or have a case with Hull?
 

daver

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Modern era bias?

That's a weak hill to stand on here.

Look I explained why I think the group sees Hull as the more complete player in that top 10 point finishes were a lot easier in a 6 team league than a 30 team league.

Also the level of increased competition in terms of elite players is quite clear and that's before the rapid expansion that helped Hull look better as he aged.

Hull is ahead of OV not because of Top Ten point finishes, he won the Art Ross three times and had the best PPG in his prime of 11 years NHL.com - Stats

What OV was able to do for three seasons; score a ton and challenge for the Ross, Hull did for a significantly longer amount of time.

I agree that placing an O6 player ahead of a player from a league with many more teams because of Top 5 to 10 Art Ross placings is statistically unreasonable but that is not the case here.
 

wetcoast

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Hull is ahead of OV not because of Top Ten point finishes, he won the Art Ross three times and had the best PPG in his prime of 11 years NHL.com - Stats
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...r=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

Ovechkin leads all NHL players in points from 05/06 until 15/16

He really isn't all far off Hull as a point producer compared to his peers.

What OV was able to do for three seasons; score a ton and challenge for the Ross, Hull did for a significantly longer amount of time.

Well Ovechkin does quite well here too, the over a long period of time part, see below

I agree that placing an O6 player ahead of a player from a league with many more teams because of Top 5 to 10 Art Ross placings is statistically unreasonable but that is not the case here.

Half of the top 10 here from 05/06 to 15/16 are non Canadians

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

And it's simple math, it's going to be alot easier to stay on top or near the list with 18 first line players compared to 90.

Iit's not at a ratio of 6:1 but it's not as easy.
 

daver

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Ovechkin leads all NHL players in points from 05/06 until 15/16

He really isn't all far off Hull as a point producer compared to his peers..

I said PPG, not points. He has a much more dominant PPG vs. his peers.

If you want to look at only points, Hull lead all players in points in his whole NHL career (57/58 to 71/72).
 
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daver

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Half of the top 10 here from 05/06 to 15/16 are non Canadians

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

And it's simple math, it's going to be alot easier to stay on top or near the list with 18 first line players compared to 90.

Iit's not at a ratio of 6:1 but it's not as easy.

I could care less about baseless speculation that Player X would do better in Player Y's era. There is no reason to think that era best players especially would not be as dominant in any other era.

This is a History of Hockey where performance vs. peers is the primary, if not the only, metric to consider with reasonable consideration for statistical realities like comparing Top 10 finishes from different league sizes.
 

wetcoast

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I said PPG, not points. He has a much more dominant PPG vs. his peers.

If you want to look at only points, Hull lead all players in points in his whole NHL career (57/58 to 71/72).

Sure but the Leafs played a defensive system, Detroit had it's aging stars, Boston was horrible most of the time and it's a 6 team league.

Ovechkin was a very good 3rd at 1.15 behind Malkin at 1.18 and Crosby in PPG in those 11 years.

I'm sure the 3 Art Ross trophies had more sway with voters than PPG anyways.
 

Big Phil

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No one doubts that secondary assists are important or that they can be "driving forces" behind goals. I've had this conversation before and as I have said then that even though you can find particular examples of secondary assists seeming like the most important contribution to a goal, on average they are much less important than primary contributions. Much of the time a secondary assist is just a generously awarded point, something that never can be said about the act of scoring.

My main point here is not to downplay playmaking, but rather to point out that "points" as a statistical category makes much less sense than most people think, and that we shouldn't take it so seriously. Nevertheless it is clear that many "very serious" rankings are made largely going off it.

Sure, on average the secondary assist has more value. On average. As I said, every player in the NHL has the ability to get s0-called junk and generous 2nd assists. Crosby isn't the only one that can benefit from this. It is like saying, well, Ovechkin only gets more goals because he shoots more. Well..........yeah.

These things always even out though. There are times when a player will get a secondary assist that has little value to the play and other times when a player sets up a teammate perfectly and they hit the post or miss a wide open net. It all evens out.

Even with a defenseman, like say Morgan Rielly. He is leading defensemen in points right now. No doubt he helps lead the rush and slides in as a 4th forward on a rush at times but other times he takes a shot from the point and a Maple Leaf gets a deflection or a rebound. He gets the assist. Or he wraps it around the boards one of his teammates picks it up and centers it in front of the net to someone else and they score. That's a secondary assist from Rielly. It is seemingly a "cheap" assist but they never score if he doesn't start the play either.

In 2008 Ovechkin was simply better, and clearly so. The rest is the grasping at straws, which was used to fuel the "rivalry" by media and fans at the time and ever since then.
Here is a very similar example: did you think that Kane was as good as Crosby in 14/15? They had similar ppg, Kane missed a quarter of the season, but then got the Cup and led PO in points, while Crosby folded in the first round. I can't remember anyone saying back then "look, Kane is at the same level as Crosby this season", it just did not register. Even after 15/16 was well underway and Kane was beating Crosby by a country mile, folks were still saying "nah, just one season, never happened before".

I would say this is a big difference. Crosby and Ovechkin both have staying power, this is why they are comparable. Does anyone think Rantanen is better than McDavid? No. Even if by chance he ends up having more points than McDavid (I doubt that happens) you'll fall on the side of the guy with two straight Art Rosses. Same with Kane in 2016. He had a big year, and he was always a very good player, will make the HHOF one day, but it was a one-off. There was 9 seasons of NHL hockey that showed you Crosby was better than Kane, one season won't change that, and it didn't.

Look at the Hart voting, look at Lindsay/Pearson nominations. In 2009, Ovechkin ran away with both, Crosby is not nominated for either. Just another example that points are not everything, a wrecking ball type of a player who scores goals at will has a lot of value beyond points.
And then again, if you are bringing up ppg, in 2009 the playoff ppg went Ovechkin's way by a lot, 1.5 vs. 1.29. "Much better postseason by Crosby" is just trying to attribute team success to one player and tag on OV the lack of Caps defense that year and a rookie between the pipes.

The Caps being knocked out in 2009 was a direct result of Crosby. Not to mention him showing up in Game 7 right off the bat and getting three points.


Again, you cannot ask for forgiveness for Crosby's 17th place in 2008 unless you grant forgiveness to Ovechkin in 2010. Then the difference becomes 3 Harts vs. 1 Hart. That's a ton of a difference.
Also, their 6th places are different. The only reason Oveckin was 6th in 2006 is that Caps were a horrible team and missed the playoffs. He was nominated for Lindsay in 2006, but snubbed in Hart voting almost the same way McDavid was last season.
Crosby, however, lost his nomination to Malkin and Datsyuk fair and square, both Lindsay nominations and all-star team votes confirm that. So we have 4 MVP nominations vs. 2 MVP nominations. That is not close.
And also we have 4 seasons out of 5 in that time span when Ovechkin was better. Crosby got a ton of praise later on in his career for being consistently great season after season. Let's give similar credit to Ovechkin for consistently beating Crosby in 2005-2010.

How "consistently" are you talking about here? They have pretty much the exact same Hart voting record from 2005-'10. Give the edge to Ovechkin in Hart voting because he won two, but he also didn't have Malkin to share some votes either. This is almost splitting hairs picking between the two of them in their first 5 seasons. If you want to give Ovechkin the edge then that's fine, but the gap was very small if at all.

I will ask this though, when was the last time someone thought Ovechkin was the best player in the NHL? 2010 was the last time anyone would have said this. We are in 2018 right now and everytime someone says McDavid is the best player in the NHL there is always a question mark about whether or not he has clearly surpassed Crosby by now, and in many ways it still isn't clear. Ovechkin's name hasn't come up in years as the best overall player.

Even since Crosby took home the awards in 2014 his Hart Trophy voting has looked like this:
2, 2, 5, 17.
17th was just last year, and this year he is on pace again to be right in the mix. Since 2014 this has been Ovechkin's:
2, 6, 9, 12

The edge is slightly to Crosby here, and throw in the playoff record since 2014 and how is it anyone but Crosby who has been better?
 

wetcoast

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I could care less about baseless speculation that Player X would do better in Player Y's era. There is no reason to think that era best players especially would not be as dominant in any other era.

There is an implied assumption that every era is basically the same then, right?

Which is a problem since context matters otherwise Joe Malone would have been in by now since he is a better scorer in terms of raw stats than Hull or Ovechkin.

This is a History of Hockey where performance vs. peers is the primary, if not the only, metric to consider with reasonable consideration for statistical realities like comparing Top 10 finishes from different league sizes.

Not sure what you are saying here, as once again a 8th place finish in a 6 team league isn't necessarily better than say a 14th or even a 19th place finish in a 30 team league.
 

daver

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Sure but the Leafs played a defensive system, Detroit had it's aging stars, Boston was horrible most of the time and it's a 6 team league.

Ovechkin was a very good 3rd at 1.15 behind Malkin at 1.18 and Crosby in PPG in those 11 years.

I'm sure the 3 Art Ross trophies had more sway with voters than PPG anyways.

OV is simply statistically inferior to Hull. If you want to handicap Hull because he played when he played, go right ahead. It is not going to change the statistical comparison.

OV was right there with peak/prime Hull after the 2010 season, since then he has become more like Brett Hull, a triggerman.
 

Fantomas

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OV is simply statistically inferior to Hull.

Based on what? They seem awfully similar to me.

And it's evident that Ovechkin was superior early in his career, while Hull had subpar seasons like those in '58-69, '60-61 and '62-63.

Hull's best statistical season produced 44 adjusted goals created in 65 games (in '65-66), while Ovechkin's best produced 53 adj goals created in 82 games ('07-08). On average that is only a slight edge to Hull (55.5 to 53), but considering that he missed 5 games that's pretty much a draw.

Taken together their stats are super close. Compare their adjusted stats for yourself: 1) Ovechkin: Alex Ovechkin Stats | Hockey-Reference.com and 2) Hull: Bobby Hull Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Hull, who left the NHL at 33, finished with 639 adjusted goals and 586 adjusted assists in 1036 games. 508 total adjusted goals created.

Ovechkin at 33 has 752 adjusted goals, 594 adjusted assists in 1040 games. 572 total adjusted goals created.

In all all, Ovechkin has a great argument, even if we eliminate Hull's rookie season (at 19 years old) from consideration.

OV was right there with peak/prime Hull after the 2010 season, since then he has become more like Brett Hull, a triggerman.

Stylistically similar to Brett Hull? Perhaps. But not statistically. Outside of that three-year peak Brett Hull was never a top-2 team all-star and did not win a single major award.

So what is this comparison meant to achieve aside from being a put down of Ovechkin?
 
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daver

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Not sure what you are saying here, as once again a 8th place finish in a 6 team league isn't necessarily better than say a 14th or even a 19th place finish in a 30 team league.

I agree but we aren't comparing 8th place and 14th place finishes.
 

Fantomas

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Looking at these stats one has to wonder why people are so slow to recognize Ovechkin as top-10 all-time while Bobby Hull is a shoe-in in almost every list?

This thread's list - Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - has Hull 5th all-time, but his numbers and his accomplishments are not objectively better. Statistically Ovechkin is either on par already or better. Hull has just the one cup to his name, so there is no advantage there.

The only plausible explanation I can give is that people are too slow to give credit to an active player.

Personally I think both Crosby and Ovechkin should be seen as top-10 all-time. It's becoming more and more obvious with each passing year that they are that good.
 
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TANK200

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It's interesting to see suggestions of "modern bias" towards wetcoast when HOH just ranked four O6 players among the top six forwards of all-time, while the top two players of the last 15 years (by a wide margin over everyone else aside from Malkin and recently McDavid) are ranked 8th and 12th. Maybe wetcoast is onto something when he suggests that context needs to be considered in ranking players across eras...
 

Hockey Outsider

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HOH just ranked four O6 players among the top six forwards of all-time, while the top two players of the last 15 years (by a wide margin over everyone else aside from Malkin and recently McDavid) are ranked 8th and 12th.

Keep in mind that Crosby and Ovechkin are only 31 and 33, respectively. They're still active and (presumably) adding to their legacies. The four players you referenced all significantly added to their legacy while in their mid thirties and beyond (and they'd surely be ranked lower without those accomplishments). It's very likely that, when we revisit this project in ten years, Crosby and Ovechkin will rank higher, because they'll have had time to complete their legacies.
 
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daver

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Which is a problem since context matters otherwise Joe Malone would have been in by now since he is a better scorer in terms of raw stats than Hull or Ovechkin.

We aren't talking about Joe Malone, we are talking about Hull and OV.

Do you have any examples of players not being as dominant when the league became tougher or mad more Euros?

It really is nothing but speculation that a player would do worse or better in another era and really has no place in a serious discussion about rankings.
 

Big Phil

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Fun fact. Ovechkin hasent outscored Crosby in a healthy season since 08-09.

Sort of what I've been trying to say to some people on here............although I can admit had he not been suspended he outscores Crosby in 2010. But since 2010 there is no way Ovechkin has been the better player nor had the better career.
 

Fantomas

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Sort of what I've been trying to say to some people on here............although I can admit had he not been suspended he outscores Crosby in 2010. But since 2010 there is no way Ovechkin has been the better player nor had the better career.

Here is the statistical information for league leaders 2010-11 onwards: 2010-11 NHL Leaders | Hockey-Reference.com

Whether Crosby has outproduced Ovechkin in these years depends on the metric you choose. If you choose PPG, then yeah Crosby wins pretty much every time.

But by goals created, and by other metrics that do not overrate secondary production, Ovechkin wins most of the time.

I believe Zuluss or Midnight made this point before, major award trophy voting supports the argument that PPG does not reflect the general perception of who the better player is. If you look at Ovechkin's placements in Hart trophy voting in these years, he does very well and has a first and a second-place finish.

Last year (2017-18) Crosby had the better PPG, but does anyone who is reasonable really believe that Crosby had the better season? Certainly not Hart voters. By goals created Ovechkin was the 6th most productive player in the league, while Crosby was 14th. By ops the edge went easily to Ovechkin (9.3 to 7.3).
 

bobholly39

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Hull is ahead of OV not because of Top Ten point finishes, he won the Art Ross three times and had the best PPG in his prime of 11 years NHL.com - Stats

What OV was able to do for three seasons; score a ton and challenge for the Ross, Hull did for a significantly longer amount of time.

I agree that placing an O6 player ahead of a player from a league with many more teams because of Top 5 to 10 Art Ross placings is statistically unreasonable but that is not the case here.

The bolded means exactly squat.

Ovechkin started his career head to head with one of the greatest players of all-time. His career/prime matches up exactly year for year vs that of Crosby (and Malkin who isn't too far behind). Who were Hull's greatest competitors? That link compares Hull to Howe from 1960-70 (not his best years - it'd be akin to comparing Crosby from 05-18 to Thornton 05-18 and saying "wow look how much better he is!"). It also compares to Beliveau from 1960-1970.

Compare Hull's best 11 year stretch to Howe's and Beliveau's and Mikita's best 11 year stretches and then we can get some useful talking points. And then see how that compares to Ov's best 11 years vs Crosby and Malkin and whoever else - and then mount an argument, one way or another.
 
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daver

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The bolded means exactly squat.

Ovechkin started his career head to head with one of the greatest players of all-time. His career/prime matches up exactly year for year vs that of Crosby (and Malkin who isn't too far behind). Who were Hull's greatest competitors? That link compares Hull to Howe from 1960-70 (not his best years - it'd be akin to comparing Crosby from 05-18 to Thornton 05-18 and saying "wow look how much better he is!"). It also compares to Beliveau from 1960-1970.

Compare Hull's best 11 year stretch to Howe's and Beliveau's and Mikita's best 11 year stretches and then we can get some useful talking points. And then see how that compares to Ov's best 11 years vs Crosby and Malkin and whoever else - and then mount an argument, one way or another.

The link confirms he was a more elite point producer than OV, not just a goalscorer, which many feel is the only metric in which to compare the two.

I guess I could have listed their respective Art Ross and PPG placings which would confirm the same thing. But isn't a multi-year stat the same thing? It gives an idea of how dominant a player was vs. the field during their playing time. Like any stat, reasonable context needs to be applied.

I actually like listing their best seasons head to head which I will do in the Top 100 thread where OV and Hull are being discussed.
 
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bobholly39

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The link confirms he was a more elite point producer than OV, not just a goalscorer, which many feel is the only metric in which to compare the two.

I guess I could have listed their respective Art Ross and PPG placings which would confirm the same thing. But isn't a multi-year stat the same thing? It gives an idea of how dominant a player was vs. the field during their playing time. Like any stat, reasonable context needs to be applied.

I actually like listing their best seasons head to head which I will do in the Top 100 thread where OV and Hull are being discussed.

If you want to compare 2 players and you select "hey look at his best 11 years vs other players playing those 11 years and then look at player's B best 11 years vs other players playing those 11 years" - the odds of it being representative of much are slim. I mean you can still look at it among other thing for a very high level idea of how the player did in those years - but the varying factor is the other players in those 11 years.

What you want to get to is how Ov did compared to contemporaries. Malkin, Crosby, Kane...whoever else. Same for Hull. Since OV's career lines up perfectly well with Crosby/Malkin - i can only expect he does worst than Hull because of this.

So it doesn't show you much.
Crosby has the same problem - because Ov and Malkin are his direct contemporaries and their careers perfectly matchup.

I agree with your last sentence. Comparing best seasons head to head is a lot more useful (though of course it's hard, across eras, to do so accurately). But that should be the goal, and a big part of differentiating them.
 

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