Your expectations of Crosby after 2007

[daver]

If you want to compare 2 players and you select "hey look at his best 11 years vs other players playing those 11 years and then look at player's B best 11 years vs other players playing those 11 years" - the odds of it being representative of much are slim. I mean you can still look at it among other thing for a very high level idea of how the player did in those years - but the varying factor is the other players in those 11 years.

I would say the OV vs. Hull comparison it actually very representative of the difference between the two. It clearly shows Hull had the superior PPG vs. his peers (the next best 10 or 15 scorers) than OV did.

It also is a way to put Top X finishes into context when comparing players from from different eras with different league sizes.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Crosby definitely didn’t live up to my expectations post 2006-2007. I don’t think it helped that scoring starting going back down, he battled serious injuries and he rounded out his game at the expense of some offensive output.

I was definitely expecting more 120+pt seasons out of him, while I knew he was never going to eclipse Gretzky or Lemieux’s records I just wanted him to dominate his peers in a similar fashion that they did. That’s what I grew up with, it’s what I was used to. Instead we got a mix mash of 8 different Art Ross winners over a 10 season span before McDavid entered the ring. I didn’t expect that at all, nor did I want that. I was hoping to see Crosby win atleast 5 Art Rosses and cement his place as a top player.

I’ve now shifted my fandom and “hope” over to McDavid. He’s on pace to eclipse Crosby in terms of individual awards, and I really hope he does it. Not because I hate Crosby, but because I want to see another player dominate on a level that my favourites as a kid did.

 

[FinProspects]

Yeah after 06-07 I expected him to reach that next level, but for some reason he didnt do that until post Olympics 2010. Then the Steckel incident happened. He was quite close to that level in 12-13, but got injured. In 13-14 he just grinded the Hart,Art and Lindsay, I didnt see same kind of dominance there as in 10-11.

Its a weird career for sure. He has won everything and achieved so much, but still we are left wondering what actually could have happened 2011-> without the concussion. Man was he good then. Its the only time Ive actually waked up during the night on non-weekend nights just to watch a guy play hockey, Sid was that good.

 

[FinProspects]

And then after the first 53 games in 09/10 Ovechkin had 42g+47a, which is a higher ppg, a bit higher gpg, and lasted longer.
So in 10/11 Crosby had to actually speed up for the next 12 games to catch 09/10 version of Ovechkin.
Of course, the media pitched it differently.

Didnt Sid actually had a better 41game stretch pointwise in 06-07 than in 10-11? But we all know he wasnt in the same level.

What makes Sid 10-11 special is (1.60ppg isnt that special, many players have produced similar rates)
- H scored goals at same rate as Ovie did in 07-08 which for a center is rare.
- Malkin wasnt there, so Sid got the full attention.
- He had a 25game point streak (24+26), which had not happened for 20ish years.
- It has been said by many (incl Sid himself) that it was by far the best hockey he had played in his career. Eyetest needed here of course, but he was as dominant as anyone in the past 15years.

 

[FinProspects]

I am not that kind of a guy, I care more about peak play, I value goals higher than assists, and I think historical significance is bigger than team awards, so for me Ovechkin > Crosby is rather clear.

Hmm, wait! All of those actually favor more...Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner: Ovechkin. Its really hard to compete with those, since

a) Ovie is the goat goalscorer and his primary task is goal scoring, vs Sid primary a playmaker

b) has the best single season (and 3 year peak) in this century vs Sid who really didnt see his peak (at least turned into hardware or full seasons)

c) has won 166161 Richard trophies vs Sid only winning two.

So its 3-0 advantage for Ovie against Sid and this will not change, so its quite good arguments you have picked there.

Luckily we have people who like to look the whole book of work for both players, and majority of people seem to favor Sid. But maybe that is just canadian bias.

 

[sr edler]

I’ve now shifted my fandom and “hope” over to McDavid. He’s on pace to eclipse Crosby in terms of individual awards, and I really hope he does it. Not because I hate Crosby, but because I want to see another player dominate on a level that my favourites as a kid did.

McDavid won his first Ross by 11 points while playing 7 more games than the 2nd placed guy. He won his second Ross by outscoring Claude Giroux by 6 points. Both those campaigns had steady/fine gaps, but it's not like he has yet blown everyone else out of the water. Patrick Kane had a Ross just prior to McDavid's first one where he outscored the 2nd guy by 17 points (and the second or third best guys that year didn't miss much games at all, certainly not 7 of them). Right now he's sitting 4th in scoring, 7 behind Kucherov and a few behind Rantanen/McKinnon. Even if he wins a third consecutive one, which is very possible, the margin is still relevant if you want to compare him with Lemieux/Gretzky. You think Lemieux/Gretzky would have left a 6 point gap to Claude Giroux?

And please, don't bring up teammates. Edmonton is not a very good team at the moment in the overall standings, but the opportunity to score points on the club is just fine.

 

[FinProspects]

Connor will not have similar dominance vs the field/peers like 99/66 did (e.g winning the scorings with large percentage vs the 2nd player) but he could end up with similar hardware, e.g. 6-8Arts+Lindsays, 4-5 Harts.

 

[Midnight Judges]

McDavid won his first Ross by 11 points while playing 7 more games than the 2nd placed guy. He won his second Ross by outscoring Claude Giroux by 6 points. Both those campaigns had steady/fine gaps, but it's not like he has yet blown everyone else out of the water. Patrick Kane had a Ross just prior to McDavid's first one where he outscored the 2nd guy by 17 points (and the second or third best guys that year didn't miss much games at all, certainly not 7 of them). Right now he's sitting 4th in scoring, 7 behind Kucherov and a few behind Rantanen/McKinnon. Even if he wins a third consecutive one, which is very possible, the margin is still relevant if you want to compare him with Lemieux/Gretzky. You think Lemieux/Gretzky would have left a 6 point gap to Claude Giroux?

And please, don't bring up teammates. Edmonton is not a very good team at the moment in the overall standings, but the opportunity to score points on the club is just fine.

Counting vs the second place guy is always going to be a volatile metric.

 

[Son Goku]

Connor will not have similar dominance vs the field/peers like 99/66 did (e.g winning the scorings with large percentage vs the 2nd player) but he could end up with similar hardware, e.g. 6-8Arts+Lindsays, 4-5 Harts.

Lets pump the breaks. That's a lot of hardware to live up to, an almost inhuman amount. Mcdavid is great but there's far too many good young hockey players in todays NHL for this to happen IMO

 

[FinProspects]

Lets pump the breaks. That's a lot of hardware to live up to, an almost inhuman amount. Mcdavid is great but there's far too many good young hockey players in todays NHL for this to happen IMO

No other generational players as far as I can see, compared to for example the situation Ovie/Geno/Sid had.

Art Ross winners during their peak/prime:
07: Sid
08: Ovie
09: Malkin
10: Sedin (Ovie would have won)
11: Sedin (Sid would have won)
12: Malkin
13: St Louis (Sid would have won)
14: Sid

Without injuries the big three would have split the Art Ross for eight years straight. Now Sedins and St Louis got three due to Sid/Ovie playing less games.

Its all for Connor since there is no one like him in the league, altough Kucherov/Mackinnon and others are really good players.

2017: Connor
2018: Connor
... and the list will continue like that.

 

[Pominville Knows]

2017: Connor
2018: Connor
... and the list will continue like that.

Some new guy could appear.

 

[bobholly39]

Connor will not have similar dominance vs the field/peers like 99/66 did (e.g winning the scorings with large percentage vs the 2nd player) but he could end up with similar hardware, e.g. 6-8Arts+Lindsays, 4-5 Harts.

He scored 100 and 108 points so far. Lot of players are pacing for more than 100 and even more than 108 points so far this year. He needs to separate himself more from the pack to get a shot at 6+ ross. To me it's extremely doubtful.

4 seems like a safe number. So many young great new talent in the league who in a career year can beat McDavid. We also don't have a sense yet of what his consistency is going to be like year to year - this could hurt him too and cause him to lose out on some in off years

 

[daver]

He scored 100 and 108 points so far. Lot of players are pacing for more than 100 and even more than 108 points so far this year. He needs to separate himself more from the pack to get a shot at 6+ ross. To me it's extremely doubtful.

4 seems like a safe number. So many young great new talent in the league who in a career year can beat McDavid. We also don't have a sense yet of what his consistency is going to be like year to year - this could hurt him too and cause him to lose out on some in off years

If the difficulty in trying to compare the greats with all of their different strengths and weaknesses is any indication, McDavid could be the Barry Sanders or Dan Marino of the NHL. An impressive RS resume that potentially outshines everyone but the Big 4 with a very lacking playoff resume mainly due to team situation.

Can't think of any other player who has this combo.

 

[bobholly39]

If the difficulty in trying to compare the greats with all of their different strengths and weaknesses is any indication, McDavid could be the Barry Sanders or Dan Marino of the NHL. An impressive RS resume that potentially outshines everyone but the Big 4 with a very lacking playoff resume mainly due to team situation.

Can't think of any other player who has this combo.

I mean he's 20 years old. It's more likely he becomes a top 4 playoff performer all-time than this. Way too early to be saying this stuff.
Lemieux had it worst and i consider him top 10 all time in playoffs

 

[FinProspects]

He scored 100 and 108 points so far. Lot of players are pacing for more than 100 and even more than 108 points so far this year. He needs to separate himself more from the pack to get a shot at 6+ ross. To me it's extremely doubtful.

4 seems like a safe number. So many young great new talent in the league who in a career year can beat McDavid. We also don't have a sense yet of what his consistency is going to be like year to year - this could hurt him too and cause him to lose out on some in off years

Yes, this year currently 15 players are pacing 100 or above. But Connor is pacing for 120+. This season is absolutely bananas, we cannot compare it to the previous year or anything before that.

He has already separated himself from the pack to be honest. B2B Art Rosses is rare. Like I mentioned somewhere, Art Ross race is like 10000m run, where Connor demolishes the others in the last 800m. He is now 7p behind of Kucherov, last year at the same time he was 9p behind. Kucherov is playing on a crazy 20game streak at the moment, with over 2ppg. Connor is just doing his regular thing, he really has not hit the top gear yet. And still he his 4th in the scoring, and will surpass the Colorado duo soon, who have cooled off quite a bit already. Connor has two games in hand compared to Kuch+Mack+Rantanen also.

As long as Connor stays healthy, he will be incredibly consistent point producer, there is no doubt in mind about that. That is because he is extremely effortless skater and he doesnt have to sacrifice his body to get points. He can just skate to/in the perimeter and do the trademark pass to Draisatl and thats it. He is just a human cheat code, and there is nothing one can do about it (check Paul Maurice's interview few years back, describes Connor quite well).

 

[daver]

I mean he's 20 years old. It's more likely he becomes a top 4 playoff performer all-time than this. Way too early to be saying this stuff.
Lemieux had it worst and i consider him top 10 all time in playoffs

Wasn't trying to make a specific prediction or claim, I just find the top players in history, especially among forwards, have such unique strengths and weaknesses on their resumes. He already is hard to rate vs. Crosby's first four seasons given Crosby's playoff success.

The current Oilers look like crap that may be hard to overcome in the cap world unlike teams in Mario's era.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I would say the OV vs. Hull comparison it actually very representative of the difference between the two. It clearly shows Hull had the superior PPG vs. his peers (the next best 10 or 15 scorers) than OV did.

No it doesn't.

 

[bobholly39]

Wasn't trying to make a specific prediction or claim, I just find the top players in history, especially among forwards, have such unique strengths and weaknesses on their resumes. He already is hard to rate vs. Crosby's first four seasons given Crosby's playoff success.

The current Oilers look like crap that may be hard to overcome in the cap world unlike teams in Mario's era.

Yeah but he's like 20 years old. Most players in the top 30 of all time probably hadn't even begun playing in the NHL by age 20 - and certainly weren't already winning MVP awards then. Way too early to talk about playoff failures. Give it another 5-6 years at least. Nobody talked about Ovi's playoff failures at age 20. 2-3 years ago with no cup and never past round 2? Sure it was becoming troubling. But he was 30 or so by then.

Also - disagree completely. Things change so fast in the salary cap era from 1 year to the next. The past 10 years are full of teams going from last to first and vice versa. The Oilers could win the next 3 cups for all we know - it's actually more plausible in today's era than back in the 80s with Lemieux.

 

[Midnight Judges]

No other generational players as far as I can see, compared to for example the situation Ovie/Geno/Sid had.

Art Ross winners during their peak/prime:
07: Sid
08: Ovie
09: Malkin
10: Sedin (Ovie would have won)
11: Sedin (Sid would have won)
12: Malkin
13: St Louis (Sid would have won)
14: Sid

Without injuries the big three would have split the Art Ross for eight years straight. Now Sedins and St Louis got three due to Sid/Ovie playing less games.

Its all for Connor since there is no one like him in the league, altough Kucherov/Mackinnon and others are really good players.

2017: Connor
2018: Connor
... and the list will continue like that.

Without injuries Ovie would have won in 2009 as well.

 

[FinProspects]

I mean he's 20 years old. It's more likely he becomes a top 4 playoff performer all-time than this. Way too early to be saying this stuff.
Lemieux had it worst and i consider him top 10 all time in playoffs

Agreed 100%, altough Edmonton is making Connor's life quite hard. But the PS success will come eventually.

 

[FinProspects]

Without injuries Ovie would have won in 2009 as well.

Sure, but not relevant in this, since Malkin is part of the big three.

 

[daver]

Yeah but he's like 20 years old. Most players in the top 30 of all time probably hadn't even begun playing in the NHL by age 20 - and certainly weren't already winning MVP awards then. Way too early to talk about playoff failures. Give it another 5-6 years at least. Nobody talked about Ovi's playoff failures at age 20. 2-3 years ago with no cup and never past round 2? Sure it was becoming troubling. But he was 30 or so by then.

Also - disagree completely. Things change so fast in the salary cap era from 1 year to the next. The past 10 years are full of teams going from last to first and vice versa. The Oilers could win the next 3 cups for all we know - it's actually more plausible in today's era than back in the 80s with Lemieux.

You clearly missed where I said his team situation may prevent him from having a usual sized playoff resume, not him as a player hence the Barry Sanders comparison.

The cap certainly keeps teams from being able to load up but you are right about the uncertainty and parity it brings. The Oilers currently look like they are not in good shape given the two big salaries they have.

 

[Big Phil]

Here is the statistical information for league leaders 2010-11 onwards: 2010-11 NHL Leaders | Hockey-Reference.com

Whether Crosby has outproduced Ovechkin in these years depends on the metric you choose. If you choose PPG, then yeah Crosby wins pretty much every time.

But by goals created, and by other metrics that do not overrate secondary production, Ovechkin wins most of the time.

I believe Zuluss or Midnight made this point before, major award trophy voting supports the argument that PPG does not reflect the general perception of who the better player is. If you look at Ovechkin's placements in Hart trophy voting in these years, he does very well and has a first and a second-place finish.

Last year (2017-18) Crosby had the better PPG, but does anyone who is reasonable really believe that Crosby had the better season? Certainly not Hart voters. By goals created Ovechkin was the 6th most productive player in the league, while Crosby was 14th. By ops the edge went easily to Ovechkin (9.3 to 7.3).

Oh boy, you aren't using the "goals created" stat are you?

 

[wetcoast]

Oh boy, you aren't using the "goals created" stat are you?

Oh yes he is, you missed upthread where PPG is a junk stat and that points isn't a very good way to measure production.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I mean he's 20 years old. It's more likely he becomes a top 4 playoff performer all-time than this. Way too early to be saying this stuff.
Lemieux had it worst and i consider him top 10 all time in playoffs

Uh doesn't he turn 22 in two weeks.