Your 18/19 Hot Take

[56 Years No Cup]

that sounds tough to track.
Josi
Pietrangelo
Yandle
Barrie
Jones
Krug
Subban
Doughty
Karlsson
Hedman
Gostisbehere
Klingberg
Burns
Carlson

here's all the defensemen who outscored Gardiner last year. Which one of them is not at least a good #3, let alone inferior to AHLers ?

Who cares?

You just shifted the goal posts totally out to left field. Stats on the brain.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Who cares?

You just shifted the goal posts totally out to left field. Stats on the brain.

what the f*** are you talking about?

 

[IPS]

Leafs gave up 28 goals against in 7 games in the 2017-18 playoffs = 4.0 GA/g.

The expansion Vegas Knights gave up only 27 GA total after 3 rounds & wins on their way to the SCF.

I didn't see anything done this offseason to address that so I suspect it will remain an issue this season.

If we had that Fleury instead of Ander7en we would have ripped past the Bruins in 5 games.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

what the **** are you talking about?

It's pretty obvious. POINTS AIN'T EVERYTHING!

 

[Gallagbi]

Are we moving on of those? We're talking about Gardiner here.

You're right, he may be a #2.

 

[Daisy Jane]

what the **** are you talking about?

i think- what the argument is trying to say is that people say that Jake is a clear high end defenseman because he scores a lot of points. however a lot of people (and it's not just about "game seven" - but it doesn't help" is that people aren't comfortable with Jake (or investing in him) because he doesn't seem to to make the right decisions under pressure. this could be seen as unfair (and I own it because i'm in this category).but while having points from the back end is important, it would be nice to have defensemen that aren't Jake. - ie smart between the ears, make sound decisions a lot more defensively sound, and if you have to sacrifice a few points that's fine because he's making key decisions when the Leafs don't have the puck.

not a "Polak" or something, but just someone who is more cerebal.
that to me is not Jake., even accepting his great skating and penchant for points.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

i think- what the argument is trying to say is that people say that Jake is a clear high end defenseman because he scores a lot of points. however a lot of people (and it's not just about "game seven" - but it doesn't help" is that people aren't comfortable with Jake (or investing in him) because he doesn't seem to to make the right decisions under pressure. this could be seen as unfair (and I own it because i'm in this category).but while having points from the back end is important, it would be nice to have defensemen that aren't Jake. - ie smart between the ears, make sound decisions a lot more defensively sound, and if you have to sacrifice a few points that's fine because he's making key decisions when the Leafs don't have the puck.

not a "Polak" or something, but just someone who is more cerebal.
that to me is not Jake., even accepting his great skating and penchant for points.

that doesn't mean that moving him out for whatever we can get and replacing him with Rosen will be anything but a downgrade though. Plus I didn't move the goalposts at all

 

[Nithoniniel]

that doesn't mean that moving him out for whatever we can get and replacing him with Rosen will be anything but a downgrade though. Plus I didn't move the goalposts at all

Yeah. If the choice was between Gardiner and an equal d-man who is much more reliable, I'd probably choose the latter. But the choice we have right now is whether to look at extending Gardiner, or losing him and replacing him with a lesser player while hoping we can fill that hole sometime in the future. And I don't think we are well off enough to lose one of our better d-men right now. Every effort should be made to sign him if we can. That doesn't mean we necessarily have to keep him through the entire contract.

 

[Morbo]

Leafs gave up 28 goals against in 7 games in the 2017-18 playoffs = 4.0 GA/g.

The expansion Vegas Knights gave up only 27 GA total after 3 rounds & wins on their way to the SCF.

I didn't see anything done this offseason to address that so I suspect it will remain an issue this season.

You didn't see them walk away from JVR Bozak and Polak?

 

[stickty111]

You're right, he may be a #2.

Yup.

 

[Daisy Jane]

that doesn't mean that moving him out for whatever we can get and replacing him with Rosen will be anything but a downgrade though. Plus I didn't move the goalposts at all

... i didn't say you did though? (sorry if i did?)
i don't think Rosen could replace Rosen unless Rosen blows minds.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah. If the choice was between Gardiner and an equal d-man who is much more reliable, I'd probably choose the latter. But the choice we have right now is whether to look at extending Gardiner, or losing him and replacing him with a lesser player while hoping we can fill that hole sometime in the future. And I don't think we are well off enough to lose one of our better d-men right now. Every effort should be made to sign him if we can. That doesn't mean we necessarily have to keep him through the entire contract.

Agree 100%.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Leafs gave up 28 goals against in 7 games in the 2017-18 playoffs = 4.0 GA/g.

The expansion Vegas Knights gave up only 27 GA total after 3 rounds & wins on their way to the SCF.

I didn't see anything done this offseason to address that so I suspect it will remain an issue this season.

seems to me that we're not factoring in a lot of the little improvements that were made this year in our projections. I agree that there's still a hole at top pairing RD, but I see a bunch of small improvements that will help us possess the puck more and get it out of our zone more effectively which will leave the defense with less time to be exposed in our own zone:
- Roman Polak out, he was well below a replacement level NHL'er and just did not let the puck leave our zone, massive addition by subtraction. Replacing Polak's 17+ mins/night with someone competent (and we should have that in Carrick/Holl/Ozhiganov) might be close in effect to replacing Hainsey with an actual #2 RHD in terms of the shot/scoring chance volume that opposing teams are getting and this really could be a huge impact move even without the fanfare of a big upgrade at the top of the D corps
- JVR & Bozak out, notably mediocre possession guys who's numbers were ok in very offensive/sheltered usage, Tavares in who has thrived to a much greater degree in similar offensive usage against much better competition with a bevy of options for system replacements for JVR's minutes that will likely net a better possession player than he was
- Travis Dermott with the potential to move up, utterly dominant against bottom pairing competition and if he can replicate that in bigger minutes the average quality of defense we're icing goes up
- Komarov out, who was at one time a pretty good 3rd liner, but had turned into a shell of his former self and a real drag on the puck possession of his line without adding much finishing ability. Whoever of Johnsson/Kapanen/Leivo take his minutes will likely be a big upgrade
- likely improvement, at least marginal, of the Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Rielly/Dermott group with another year towards their prime

Yeah. If the choice was between Gardiner and an equal d-man who is much more reliable, I'd probably choose the latter. But the choice we have right now is whether to look at extending Gardiner, or losing him and replacing him with a lesser player while hoping we can fill that hole sometime in the future. And I don't think we are well off enough to lose one of our better d-men right now. Every effort should be made to sign him if we can. That doesn't mean we necessarily have to keep him through the entire contract.

to your point, if he was on a $5.5Mx6y extension, that probably increases his trade value from what it is right now anyway

 

[kb]

Yeah. If the choice was between Gardiner and an equal d-man who is much more reliable, I'd probably choose the latter. But the choice we have right now is whether to look at extending Gardiner, or losing him and replacing him with a lesser player while hoping we can fill that hole sometime in the future. And I don't think we are well off enough to lose one of our better d-men right now. Every effort should be made to sign him if we can. That doesn't mean we necessarily have to keep him through the entire contract.

I'm not a huge Jake fan by any stretch, but this is the point to concentrate on. The Leafs need to trade him or sign him prior to puck drop this year. And I am fine with resigning him to a contract that doesn't involve dealing another core player. So the dollar figure will have to be low enough to be able to keep everyone through next year's cap crunch.

But if the choice is dealing say a Nylander, Kadri, or Jake, it's bye bye Jake (because of age (Nylander) or contract (Kadri)).

 

[pheasant]

My hot take:

None of Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, or Holl are good enough to take a regular roster spot on a cup contender. We shouldn't be wasting a year by hoping one of these guys can do the job. I don't care if it's only the 3rd pairing we're talking about. I don't trust any of them to be on the roster opening night.

I'd be happy to be wrong. But I think the team would be better off if they bring in someone via trade who can push these guys off the NHL roster.

 

[Deebo]

I'm not a huge Jake fan by any stretch, but this is the point to concentrate on. The Leafs need to trade him or sign him prior to puck drop this year. And I am fine with resigning him to a contract that doesn't involve dealing another core player. So the dollar figure will have to be low enough to be able to keep everyone through next year's cap crunch.

But if the choice is dealing say a Nylander, Kadri, or Jake, it's bye bye Jake (because of age (Nylander) or contract (Kadri)).

What if they best deal they have on the table a 2nd round pick and B prospect from a team expected to draft in the bottom 10?

You would rather have that then Jake with no replacement for the season?

 

[kb]

What if they best deal they have on the table a 2nd round pick and B prospect from a team expected to draft in the bottom 10?

You would rather have that then Jake with no replacement for the season?

If that is the best offer, then that means his abilities and true worth are obviously being waaaaay overvalued by many on here and elsewhere. Which is probably a good thing, it means he should sign for less to stay, which is fine by me.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Leafs gave up 28 goals against in 7 games in the 2017-18 playoffs = 4.0 GA/g.

The expansion Vegas Knights gave up only 27 GA total after 3 rounds & wins on their way to the SCF.

I didn't see anything done this offseason to address that so I suspect it will remain an issue this season.

I'm asking what changed to make them worse than last year.

They were 11th best in GA last year, and you said they will be no better than 15th, so there must be some reason you think they are worse.

 

[AustonMarner]

I'll say 53 takes the trophy this year.
Laine, McDavid and Seguin will be the chasers.

I really hope he can get to 50 at least tbh.. we'll see

 

[ToMaLe]

Greg Millen makes a bad call on a goal.

every game!

 

[Randy Randerson]

My hot take:

None of Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, or Holl are good enough to take a regular roster spot on a cup contender. We shouldn't be wasting a year by hoping one of these guys can do the job. I don't care if it's only the 3rd pairing we're talking about. I don't trust any of them to be on the roster opening night.

I'd be happy to be wrong. But I think the team would be better off if they bring in someone via trade who can push these guys off the NHL roster.

counterpoint hot take from me - the upgrade from Polak to Carrick/Holl/Ozhiganov/other system replacement will quietly have almost as big of an impact on the indicators of balance of play (CF%, FF%, SF%, SCF%, GF%, etc) as finding a partner worthy of playing on the top pairing with Rielly

 

[Deebo]

If that is the best offer, then that means his abilities and true worth are obviously being waaaaay overvalued by many on here and elsewhere. Which is probably a good thing, it means he should sign for less to stay, which is fine by me.

Not what I asked, if that was the return available.

If him signing before the season was off the table, would you rather have that or keep Jake for this upcoming season?

 

[kb]

Not what I asked, if that was the return available.

If him signing before the season was off the table, would you rather have that or keep Jake for this upcoming season?

Where didn't I answer this before? I will quote myself....the answer is bolded.

I'm not a huge Jake fan by any stretch, but this is the point to concentrate on. The Leafs need to trade him or sign him prior to puck drop this year. And I am fine with resigning him to a contract that doesn't involve dealing another core player. So the dollar figure will have to be low enough to be able to keep everyone through next year's cap crunch.

But if the choice is dealing say a Nylander, Kadri, or Jake, it's bye bye Jake (because of age (Nylander) or contract (Kadri)).

It was answered long ago.

 

[Deebo]

Where didn't I answer this before? I will quote myself....the answer is bolded.



It was answered long ago.

No you didn't answer the question I asked... Maybe I wasn't clear.

You said they need to trade him or sign him prior to puck drop.

I am asking that in the event that you couldn't get him signed before the season and the best trade offer was something like a 2nd round pick and a B prospect...

Would you rather keep Gardiner for the season and let him walk or take the underwhelming trade return and go into the season without a replacement?

 

[kb]

No you didn't answer the question I asked... Maybe I wasn't clear.

You said they need to trade him or sign him prior to puck drop.

I am asking that in the event that you couldn't get him signed before the season and the best trade offer was something like a 2nd round pick and a B prospect...

Would you rather keep Gardiner for the season and let him walk or take the underwhelming trade return and go into the season without a replacement?

If he isn't coming back next season, you take the best offer. It's exactly what they should have done with JVR last summer. Move on from pieces that aren't part of your future, because all that is doing is delaying the inevitable - and moving him allows the Leafs more time to get players into the lineup and evaluate them. If the Leafs go out the second round this year, and Gardiner walks, then you have to start the evaluation and replacement cycle for him next year, and that means they essentially just burned 2 years of their cup window when they could have used this year to do that process. Plus having that extra cap space means perhaps they can make a bigger splash at some point this season or next summer. And without factoring in the return, the Leafs are still left with this, plus a ton of cap space.

Rielly - Hainsey
Dermott - Zaitsev
Rosen/Borgman - Carrick/Holl/Liljegren

 

[56 Years No Cup]

No you didn't answer the question I asked... Maybe I wasn't clear.

You said they need to trade him or sign him prior to puck drop.

I am asking that in the event that you couldn't get him signed before the season and the best trade offer was something like a 2nd round pick and a B prospect...

Would you rather keep Gardiner for the season and let him walk or take the underwhelming trade return and go into the season without a replacement?

YES!