When I first started developing my 40+ theories.
I looked at what type of team advanced in playoffs.
-Top GA teams advance to final 40% more than top GF teams.
-7 of 8 final 4 teams are top GA teams.
- Closed ( None scoreable) shots occur when they hit a goalie who moves with the puck like a table hockey goalie. Only shots that hit open space in net Elevation ( open shots ) are scoreable and require movement for a save from a goalie.
This Was a 45 yr old observation as a 10 yr old watching 7 yr old Ron Gunville ( Player Personel Director of WHL Champ PA Raiders) move with the ball like a table hockey goalie.
- my HD area ( homeplate) is the real DZ.
Shots go in 5 times more than any other area.
- off dmen are not dmen they are Rovers.
( yup I am the one who drives this)
When you look at structures. Everyone thinks of the 3-2-1 structure.
But when you look at zones: true dz ( homeplate), inside own Blue (Perimeter) LD Area, NZ, OZ.
Rovers occupy a higher % non homeplate time than real dmen.
-Rovers create a high% of 3F - 1R - 1D -1G structure.
-Rovers must be compared to Forwards when looking at Offence.
They occupy a high% of OZ, NZ, perimeter space as forwards.
- Rovers abandon Def of Homeplate yielding high EVGa/60 to their side.
Rovers create a 1D - 1G def of true DZ ( homeplate)
They yeild a free path to their side of the critical (final 4 team) 2D -1G homeplate def structure.
They yeild a high open high density shot rate to their uncovered side. That leads to the brutal evga rates to their side.
Rover play translates in the CHL but not in NHL.
Three yrs ago the median save% in NHL was .918.
This yr.
Median save % in AHL .906
Median save% WHL .902 close to AHL standard.
Median save% Qmjhl .895
Median save% OHL .890
The ratio between perimeter and homeplate success is like 80’s play in OHL and Qmjhl.
Not the 5 - 1 NHL ratio of 5 yrs ago.
The median this yr was .912.
Last year the top range of starting goalies Save % increased by .004 so it was not the equipment change.
We see many more teams go to a higher % 3-1-1-1 driven system.
Resulting in a higher:
Abandoning of Homeplate.
higher % of open high density shots to rovers side.
Resulting in higher evga rates.
median evga/60
16/17 2.39 evga/60
CHL scouts I have talked to agree with the Rover 3-1-1-1 structure.
That is all the “you are correct” I need.
Morissey is a Rover not a dmen.
We know goals generate offence.
Players recieve points from assists.
But are dependent on another player finishing and generating the points.
Morrisey:
Defence:
compared to other top 6 (186) ev min Rovers and dmen.
He is Bottom 55 - 2.91 evga/60.
That is as a pair. Not to his side were we see 4.00 - 5.00 to their abandoned side.
Offence: compared to 492 ev min skaters (372) top 12 fwds and (210) top 7 rover/ dmen.
His .11evg/60 is #513 of 582 skaters.
He is not driving winning play by scoring goals.
His 1.08 Evp/60 is #387 of 582 skaters.
He is not a critical driver of scoring thru his passing.
Holland said it best this summer
“some of the dmen (Rovers) have to learn to attack as 4th and 5 th options being aware to maintain def.”
Teams with high % 3-1-1-1 structure that yeild high% of Open shot rates like Toronto, Cgy, are knocked out in first round.
Bottom 55 evga/60
#513 evg/60
#387 evp/60
For 6.25 M AAV.
Well at least it is not E. Karlsson
Bottom 26 Dman/rover 3.25 evga/60
.06 evg/60 #552 of 582 skaters.
1.45 evp/60 #267 of 582 skaters
For 11.5M AAV.