Confirmed Signing with Link: [WPG] Josh Morrissey signs extension with Jets (8 years, $6.25M AAV)

[Do or Die]

Here is some advice for some folks, on these boards.... who want to assess a hockey player ability, with some sort of spreadsheet. The good Lord gifted us with right and left eyeballs. They catch all sorts of things, beyond the stats....like instinct, decision making, effort, grit and interaction with teammates.

Have watched every game that Morrissey has played as a Jet. This guy is a stud, who can play big minutes in all situations against any match up, and rarely makes a mistake out there. Or at least, so my eyeballs tell me.

 

[Atoyot]

When I first started developing my 40+ theories.

I looked at what type of team advanced in playoffs.
-Top GA teams advance to final 40% more than top GF teams.
-7 of 8 final 4 teams are top GA teams.

- Closed ( None scoreable) shots occur when they hit a goalie who moves with the puck like a table hockey goalie. Only shots that hit open space in net Elevation ( open shots ) are scoreable and require movement for a save from a goalie.
This Was a 45 yr old observation as a 10 yr old watching 7 yr old Ron Gunville ( Player Personel Director of WHL Champ PA Raiders) move with the ball like a table hockey goalie.

- my HD area ( homeplate) is the real DZ.
Shots go in 5 times more than any other area.

- off dmen are not dmen they are Rovers.
( yup I am the one who drives this)
When you look at structures. Everyone thinks of the 3-2-1 structure.
But when you look at zones: true dz ( homeplate), inside own Blue (Perimeter) LD Area, NZ, OZ.
Rovers occupy a higher % non homeplate time than real dmen.

-Rovers create a high% of 3F - 1R - 1D -1G structure.

-Rovers must be compared to Forwards when looking at Offence.
They occupy a high% of OZ, NZ, perimeter space as forwards.

- Rovers abandon Def of Homeplate yielding high EVGa/60 to their side.
Rovers create a 1D - 1G def of true DZ ( homeplate)
They yeild a free path to their side of the critical (final 4 team) 2D -1G homeplate def structure.
They yeild a high open high density shot rate to their uncovered side. That leads to the brutal evga rates to their side.

Rover play translates in the CHL but not in NHL.
Three yrs ago the median save% in NHL was .918.
This yr.
Median save % in AHL .906
Median save% WHL .902 close to AHL standard.
Median save% Qmjhl .895
Median save% OHL .890
The ratio between perimeter and homeplate success is like 80’s play in OHL and Qmjhl.
Not the 5 - 1 NHL ratio of 5 yrs ago.

The median this yr was .912.
Last year the top range of starting goalies Save % increased by .004 so it was not the equipment change.
We see many more teams go to a higher % 3-1-1-1 driven system.
Resulting in a higher:
Abandoning of Homeplate.
higher % of open high density shots to rovers side.
Resulting in higher evga rates.
median evga/60
16/17 2.39 evga/60


CHL scouts I have talked to agree with the Rover 3-1-1-1 structure.
That is all the “you are correct” I need.


Morissey is a Rover not a dmen.

We know goals generate offence.
Players recieve points from assists.
But are dependent on another player finishing and generating the points.



Morrisey:

Defence:
compared to other top 6 (186) ev min Rovers and dmen.
He is Bottom 55 - 2.91 evga/60.
That is as a pair. Not to his side were we see 4.00 - 5.00 to their abandoned side.

Offence: compared to 492 ev min skaters (372) top 12 fwds and (210) top 7 rover/ dmen.
His .11evg/60 is #513 of 582 skaters.
He is not driving winning play by scoring goals.

His 1.08 Evp/60 is #387 of 582 skaters.
He is not a critical driver of scoring thru his passing.

Holland said it best this summer
“some of the dmen (Rovers) have to learn to attack as 4th and 5 th options being aware to maintain def.”

Teams with high % 3-1-1-1 structure that yeild high% of Open shot rates like Toronto, Cgy, are knocked out in first round.

Bottom 55 evga/60
#513 evg/60
#387 evp/60
For 6.25 M AAV.

Well at least it is not E. Karlsson
Bottom 26 Dman/rover 3.25 evga/60
.06 evg/60 #552 of 582 skaters.
1.45 evp/60 #267 of 582 skaters
For 11.5M AAV.

Again, if you think he's a rover you've never watched him play. He is very much a defense first defenseman. He is the 1D in your 3F - 1R - 1D structure. I'm a big fan of analytics, but yours is faulty from the get go if you're claiming that Josh Morrissey is a rover. He plays defense first against the opponents top lines every game.

 

[snowkiddin]

Under rated summer? He got bent over in the Trouba deal, has failed to sign his two top RFA's, and last half of his defense.

Trouba f***ed him over. Could’ve traded him earlier, but they were going for the Cup so it made sense to keep him.

Heinola was an incredible pick. Tanev, Myers and Chiarot signed horrific contracts elsewhere, leaving Chevy money to spend on more important assets.

Not many of the RFAs have signed yet. Morrissey’s extension is already one of the best in the league and it should get even better.

Ignorance is bliss.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

He is a rover not a dman that Occupies a high % of forward OZ, NZ, DZ perimeter space.
He scores evg like a AHL forwards.
His Evp/60 rate is 4 th line forward rate.
He is bottom 55 evga/60 dman/ rover.

That is a serious level of brutal.

He is not a Dman who covers the homeplate ( were shot go in 5 times more) in a 2D -1G GA structure.

He abandons the homeplate area to his side.
Creating a 3F - 1R - 1D -1G structure.
Forcing a 1D - 1G def of HD area.

Often the 4th or 5 th skater back orbskating to the bench as final skater behind the play.

We see a lot of EVGA with the Rover or the Dman replacing him (Cause rover is last skater in play) on late, failing to re-establish
2D - 1G def of HD area (Homeplate)

Could be worse!
E. Karlsson
Bottom 26 Dman/rover 3.25 evga/60
.06 evg/60 #552 of 582 skaters.
1.45 evp/60 #267 of 582 skaters
For 11.5M AAV.

Again, if you think he's a rover you've never watched him play. He is very much a defense first defenseman. He is the 1D in your 3F - 1R - 1D structure. I'm a big fan of analytics, but yours is faulty from the get go if you're claiming that Josh Morrissey is a rover. He plays defense first against the opponents top lines every game.

You know that theory that if you put enough monkeys in a room with enough typewriters one of them would produce a brilliant novel? This "stats" post is an example of the other stuff the monkey's produce.

Total gibberish.

 

[Andrei79]

Great signing, he's an excellent player.

Feel bad for Winnipeg fans about Trouba however. Morrisey, Trouva and Byfuglien was a good trio to build around.

 

[heretik27]

Great signing, he's an excellent player.

Feel bad for Winnipeg fans about Trouba however. Morrisey, Trouva and Byfuglien was a good trio to build around.

I'm not too mad about it. Trouba's got his priorities elsewhere and that's totally fine. We got a lot of good years out of him. Can't expect every player you draft to have some kind of weird unwavering loyalty to the team just because you were the first team to reach out in the draft.

 

[snowkiddin]

Is McDonalds bringing back the McRib?

That would be good news?!

 

[blueandgoldguy]

More good news about to be announced in a few days.

It's been a week. What's the good news? Unless Buff 's possible retirement can be construed as good news as it frees up additional cap space.

 

[PhilJets]

Josh is young.

He can take 25mins+ a game.

 

[mattihp]

Morrissey is the kind of guy you want to throw out there with half a minute of the game left. And also for almost half of all other minutes in the game too.

Solid signing.

 

[kylbaz]

More good news about to be announced in a few days.

Any more rumours to spread?

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Morrissey is going to get a boatload of ice time and opportunities.
Likely including PP1 minutes.
Barring injuries he should shatter his previous highs for goals and assists.

This contract is already great value for 8 years.
After this season I think people will look again and say how did the team get this guy to sign so low?

In Josh we trust.
Love this guy!!!