Would You Have Made The Duchene Trade?

[GrantLemons]

As I've said elsewhere I believe Dorion chose to "Swing for the Fences" in 2017 because he knew the team was going to be decimated for financial reasons in subsequent years (I suspect he knew they couldn't sign EK and eventually Stone and others, including Duchene). It was an all-in, one shot attempt.
Poorly timed in my opinion and whether he should have known better is a good question.

Dorion had long coveted Duchene prior to actually pulling the trigger on the deal. To me, it feels like Dorion finally caved and gave in to Sakic's crazy demands after he had pissed off and burned the Kyle Turris bridge during their contract negotiations, and subsequent involvement in trade talks. I think he felt like he had to move Turris ASAP, and was also potentially (likely) getting pressured by the owner to get a deal done.

I seriously doubt there was any sort of plan in place when that deal was made. They f***ed up the Turris negotiations (much like they are f***ing up the Stone/Duchene negotiations), and made a quick trigger move that was a gross overpay to get Turris out of town, and Dorion would "get his man".

 

[NorthCoast]

Marc Methot has really helped the Stars win hockey games, with his 45 games played over two seasons for them.

Just think where Ottawa would have been with those 45 games, instead of the 121 games Ceci has played for Ottawa over the same time period.


IF, PD had protected MM over CC, and CC had played 121 games for the VGKs, and had gone to the finals, while MM, being injured and only played 45 games for the Senators ......... the posters on this forum would be trashing PD for not protecting CC over MM.

Or you could also say...

IF, PD had recognized that leaving MM available was going to create a significant gap in the roster, and that because MM was getting old it was not worth paying VKG to take someone else...and therefore the team needed a better replacement instead of winging it with the youth, especially in a year where we are trading our 1st to go for it...he would have been doing his job and the posters on this forum would not be trashing him so much.

 

[slamigo]

I've said it before and I'll repeat it. If PD can sign Duchene, it was a good trade even if the Sens give the 1st overall to Colorado. Duchene is that good.
If not, and Duchene is gone at the TDL for a mid 1st + pieces, than it will have been a terrible trade.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

So on November 5th, 2017 when the Matt Duchene was acquired, you "saw it coming" , meaning how the Senators would finish 30th overall?

Did you post that here in this forum?

If so, can you find the link to the thread(s)?

my initial reaction to the trade

 

[xIsle]

Yes.

For zibanejad +


Like I was expecting. Was shocked when all we got was f ing brassard

Yes that's what I thought too. The Zinanejad trade was another bad trade. Zibanejad is six years younger than Brassard also. For me, that was a weird trade.

 

[Icelevel]

Yes that's what I thought too. The Zinanejad trade was another bad trade. Zibanejad is six years younger than Brassard also. For me, that was a weird trade.

Was an early sign that this Dorion guy may be a bit incompetent

 

[topshelf15]

Was an early sign that this Dorion guy may be a bit incompetent

The 2nd thrown in for the Rags to pay Brassard,s bonus was a really nice touch...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Clearly they were better off just re-upping Zbad and Turris long term. Those are the kind of centers they could actually afford long term and aren't the type to be able to command massive lockout bonus money protection like Stone and Duchene.

Those two combined only make 3 mil more than Duchene is going to get at absolute minimum.

 

[Blotto71]

my initial reaction to the trade
View attachment 173019

Did you drop the mic FQL? Because that shit is mic-drop worthy! Well done sir. It was indeed "a trap"!

 

[topshelf15]

Welp with hopes fading fast,that he will remain a Sens past the TDL....This one likely goes down as one of the worst and most crippling to a franchise moves that has been made in the recent past for sure

 

[hawthy]

The only two people who could execute their job with such piss-poor accuracy and maintain employment are Pierre Dorion and the weatherman.

 

[HF Reader]

Got a source to back any of this horse-**** up?

No source. Just my best guess., my opinion (as in "I believe"). I could be totally wrong. In fact I hope I am wrong. If you have evidence that my opinion is unreasonable please tell me. I'd love to believe you, honestly I would. It could mean this team is better managed than appears.

I know nothing of Melnyk's financial position and goals. And thankfully I can't read Dorion's mind.

Maybe in 2017 they thought they could sign one or more of Stone, etc. and something changed.
I'm assuming Melnyk and Dorion had the wherewithal to know that Duchene, Stone , EK, Ceci and Dzingle all had expiring contracts within 18 months. Agree that is a reasonable assumption?

Further I assume they foresaw and discussed the difficulty signing these players given the attendance revenue from the previous playoffs and other factors such as bad contracts on the books. Maybe a stretch on my part.

I also assume Melnyk's comments at the outdoor game and elsewhere were more than just spontaneous ramblings and reflect what he'd been thinking for some time. Including the inability to compete financially with some teams. (You've told me before that you don't put much stock into what Melnyk says).

The above influences my current opinion. At the time of the trade I foresaw a likely problem in signing most if not all of the players discussed. In 2017 did you think they'd be able to keep all these players? Any of these players? The only hope I saw was adding Ryan to the (my assumed) EK trade.

As for the "Horse***" part of your post. That's unnecessary and I trust you know it. I generally respect your posts but come on. We all express opinions without sources, which I assume to you basically means a great deal on this board is Horse**** (and that is just my best guess as I have no source for that assumption either).

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Welp with hopes fading fast,that he will remain a Sens past the TDL....This one likely goes down as one of the worst and most crippling to a franchise moves that has been made in the recent past for sure

Worst case scenario... that pick ends up number one and we get peanuts for Duchene, it's going to go down as one of the worst deals in modern history. Right up there with Spezza, Chara & Muckalt for Yashin and Luongo/Jokinen for Parrish/Kvasha.

Dorion looks like another Mike Milbury at this point.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

No source. Just my best guess., my opinion (as in "I believe"). I could be totally wrong. In fact I hope I am wrong. If you have evidence that my opinion is unreasonable please tell me. I'd love to believe you, honestly I would. It could mean this team is better managed than appears.

I know nothing of Melnyk's financial position and goals. And thankfully I can't read Dorion's mind.

Maybe in 2017 they thought they could sign one or more of Stone, etc. and something changed.
I'm assuming Melnyk and Dorion had the wherewithal to know that Duchene, Stone , EK, Ceci and Dzingle all had expiring contracts within 18 months. Agree that is a reasonable assumption?

Further I assume they foresaw and discussed the difficulty signing these players given the attendance revenue from the previous playoffs and other factors such as bad contracts on the books. Maybe a stretch on my part.

I also assume Melnyk's comments at the outdoor game and elsewhere were more than just spontaneous ramblings and reflect what he'd been thinking for some time. Including the inability to compete financially with some teams. (You've told me before that you don't put much stock into what Melnyk says).

The above influences my current opinion. At the time of the trade I foresaw a likely problem in signing most if not all of the players discussed. In 2017 did you think they'd be able to keep all these players? Any of these players? The only hope I saw was adding Ryan to the (my assumed) EK trade.

As for the "Horse***" part of your post. That's unnecessary and I trust you know it. I generally respect your posts but come on. We all express opinions without sources, which I assume to you basically means a great deal on this board is Horse**** (and that is just my best guess as I have no source for that assumption either).

Sure. Ok my bad.. My frustration with the current management spills over.

 

[GrantLemons]

I also assume Melnyk's comments at the outdoor game and elsewhere were more than just spontaneous ramblings and reflect what he'd been thinking for some time. Including the inability to compete financially with some teams. (You've told me before that you don't put much stock into what Melnyk says).

You can't honestly believe that. Every single thing that the Ottawa Senators have done in the last almost 2 years have screamed "we have no plan".

The actions of the team are a reflection of Eugene Melnyk himself: spontaneous, impulsive and idiotic. He probably doesn't know from month to month whether or not he's even going to own this team long term, let alone being able to formulate a long term plan to revive the franchise and execute it.

The guy has proven himself a loose cannon, and likely has no plan outside of what he's going to have for his next meal.

 

[HF Reader]

Marc Methot has really helped the Stars win hockey games, with his 45 games played over two seasons for them.

Just think where Ottawa would have been with those 45 games, instead of the 121 games Ceci has played for Ottawa over the same time period.


IF, PD had protected MM over CC, and CC had played 121 games for the VGKs, and had gone to the finals, while MM, being injured and only played 45 games for the Senators ......... the posters on this forum would be trashing PD for not protecting CC over MM.

You and I agree partly on this issue but think about what you just wrote? Now who has the crystal ball? Did you predict Methot's 45 games?

 

[HF Reader]

Sure. Ok my bad.. My frustration with the current management spills over.

Thanks . You and I are mostly on the same page and I look forward to more of your posts. I share your frustration and I feel like I'm in some grieving process over the death of hope, etc.

 

[pzeeman]

No source. Just my best guess., my opinion (as in "I believe"). I could be totally wrong. In fact I hope I am wrong. If you have evidence that my opinion is unreasonable please tell me. I'd love to believe you, honestly I would. It could mean this team is better managed than appears.

I know nothing of Melnyk's financial position and goals. And thankfully I can't read Dorion's mind.

Maybe in 2017 they thought they could sign one or more of Stone, etc. and something changed.
I'm assuming Melnyk and Dorion had the wherewithal to know that Duchene, Stone , EK, Ceci and Dzingle all had expiring contracts within 18 months. Agree that is a reasonable assumption?

Further I assume they foresaw and discussed the difficulty signing these players given the attendance revenue from the previous playoffs and other factors such as bad contracts on the books. Maybe a stretch on my part.

I also assume Melnyk's comments at the outdoor game and elsewhere were more than just spontaneous ramblings and reflect what he'd been thinking for some time. Including the inability to compete financially with some teams. (You've told me before that you don't put much stock into what Melnyk says).

I'd add to that this was also a likely indication to Erik that "Look! We'll improve the team to try to win! Don't you want to stay here?".

That first is what has everyone upset, and rightfully so. Even a simple look at goal differential showed that the 2017 playoffs had a huge element of luck. But not even genius Sakic would have thought he was getting two shots at the lottery - I'm sure he thought he was getting a pick in the high teens at best - maybe with really slim lottery chances if he's lucky.

I do think there was an amount of can-kicking involved, and a sense of crossing that bridge when we get to it about the extensions. I truly believe that Dorion thought he was solidifying his team for a good 2018 playoff and would worry about all the extensions once the playoff revenue comes flowing in.

 

[HF Reader]

You can't honestly believe that. Every single thing that the Ottawa Senators have done in the last almost 2 years have screamed "we have no plan".

The actions of the team are a reflection of Eugene Melnyk himself: spontaneous, impulsive and idiotic. He probably doesn't know from month to month whether or not he's even going to own this team long term, let alone being able to formulate a long term plan to revive the franchise and execute it.

The guy has proven himself a loose cannon, and likely has no plan outside of what he's going to have for his next meal.

You may well be right but I give him a bit more credit. I agree he is a loose cannon but surely he reads financial statements, etc. Or has an advisor who does. I do think there is a "plan". And was a "plan". Totally guessing but 2017 plan was to win the cup (Duchene trade) and solve contracts later. Current plan has nothing to do with winning in the near term. Rather it is to operate at lowest cost and "buckle up" until some unknown time in the future when (if) the revenue increases and/or he sells. Meanwhile draft players hoping there will be a financial future for the team. I'll repeat that I am totally guessing.

 

[HF Reader]

I'd add to that this was also a likely indication to Erik that "Look! We'll improve the team to try to win! Don't you want to stay here?".

That first is what has everyone upset, and rightfully so. Even a simple look at goal differential showed that the 2017 playoffs had a huge element of luck. But not even genius Sakic would have thought he was getting two shots at the lottery - I'm sure he thought he was getting a pick in the high teens at best - maybe with really slim lottery chances if he's lucky.

I do think there was an amount of can-kicking involved, and a sense of crossing that bridge when we get to it about the extensions. I truly believe that Dorion thought he was solidifying his team for a good 2018 playoff and would worry about all the extensions once the playoff revenue comes flowing in.

To me this is reasonable and assumes PD and Melnyk have at least some thought process (fire away!). Dorion from day-one took the position of "why not win now".
There are other possibilities.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Seems like it's still fair to say he failed though. Just because there's rationale to bad decisions made doesn't mean they aren't still the wrong thing to do.

Pro sports is cut throat and quite frankly if Dorion can't get it done, then he should GTFO whether he had good intentions or not.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I understood why the trade was made but I’ve hated it from the day I saw the news after I got back from deer hunting.

As an unrelated comment, if I wanted to go deer hunting all I would have to do is step out into the deck in the morning!

This city is teeming with deer all year, as in we have to be careful driving in the city because deer are wandering everywhere. We had a four point buck, a doe, and a fawn in the yard the other day eating grass and generally just chilling, I had to keep the kids indoors as I wasn’t sure what that big boy would do.

Lol, we seriously have deer like Ottawa has squirrels....

 

[coladin]

You may well be right but I give him a bit more credit. I agree he is a loose cannon but surely he reads financial statements, etc. Or has an advisor who does. I do think there is a "plan". And was a "plan". Totally guessing but 2017 plan was to win the cup (Duchene trade) and solve contracts later. Current plan has nothing to do with winning in the near term. Rather it is to operate at lowest cost and "buckle up" until some unknown time in the future when (if) the revenue increases and/or he sells. Meanwhile draft players hoping there will be a financial future for the team. I'll repeat that I am totally guessing.

I agree with you. The Ottawa version of going for it imploded.

 

[HF Reader]

Seems like it's still fair to say he failed though. Just because there's rationale to bad decisions made doesn't mean they aren't still the wrong thing to do.

Pro sports is cut throat and quite frankly if Dorion can't get it done, then he should GTFO whether he had good intentions or not.

I think he did have good intentions but agree that he misjudged the situation and acted too quickly (making it a bad decision with the information I assume he had at the time, such as goal differential and point in the season). At the time there was still the possibility of injury and who knows what else to scuttle his plan. Something(s) went terribly wrong after the trade. If the team had continued with a reasonable record who knows what else he'd have moved at the TDL?

I didn't predict the collapse that occurred, and I liked getting Duchene assuming they were trading a mid- first (even that I hate to do unless VERY sure).
And I agree, pro anything rewards results, not effort or intentions.

 

[Engineer]

As an unrelated comment, if I wanted to go deer hunting all I would have to do is step out into the deck in the morning!

This city is teeming with deer all year, as in we have to be careful driving in the city because deer are wandering everywhere. We had a four point buck, a doe, and a fawn in the yard the other day eating grass and generally just chilling, I had to keep the kids indoors as I wasn’t sure what that big boy would do.

Lol, we seriously have deer like Ottawa has squirrels....

They're very peaceful when left alone, love to watch them do their thing when not hunting them lol.

Mule deer I assume in Victoria?
Waterton, Alberta, when I visited was interesting, not in the best way, they have a very high population of mule deer, and certain tourists were getting about 10ft from them, which generally are very tame as they are used to so many humans, but still very risky as you can spook them. One morning I did see a Doe start stalking a family with a dog that it felt threatened by, likely because she had two fawns with her, was a quick wake up call to a bunch of the tourists who didn't get as close afterwards.