Prospect Info: With the #24 pick, the Wild select (D) Filip Johansson (Allsvenskan, Leksands IF)

[Saga of the Elk]

And Khovanov, a guy we got in the 3rd round, is 13th in points and 10th in goals. I like and continue to like that pick, but the Q seems like a high scoring league in general.

I'll continue to plead ignorance on F. Johansson until I get a chance to watch him play some, but it is a little interesting that S. Johansson has 2 goals and 7 points in the about same number of games in the same league. Purely from stat-watching, Filip's team (Leksands IF) seems to score less and get scored on less, while Simon's team (Almtuna IS) scores more but allows more goals against. So even there it's hard to know what to make of it.

Edit: I take that back. Leksands has more goals, and Simon's actually 9th in scoring on Almtuna. So more points on an apparently worse team.

Simon is also almost a year older. It's a wait and see for me.

But the Wild's drafting has pretty much been like this for years, going by comps it seems.

We like Staal and Koivu, so we'll draft JEE.
We like Brodin, so we'll draft Filip Johansson.
We like Matt Cooke, so we'll draft Raphael Bussieres.
We like Kyle Brodziak, so we'll draft Adam Gilmour.
We like Matt Kassian, so we'll draft Kurtis Gabriel.
We like Marty Nanne, so we'll draft Louis Nanne.

might be a flawed approach

 

[Bazeek]

Simon is also almost a year older. It's a wait and see for me.

But the Wild's drafting has pretty much been like this for years, going by comps it seems.

We like Staal and Koivu, so we'll draft JEE.
We like Brodin, so we'll draft Filip Johansson.
We like Matt Cooke, so we'll draft Raphael Bussieres.
We like Kyle Brodziak, so we'll draft Adam Gilmour.
We like Matt Kassian, so we'll draft Kurtis Gabriel.
We like Marty Nanne, so we'll draft Louis Nanne.

might be a flawed approach

I dunno, that looks a lot like apophenia to me.

 

[57special]

The offense is worrisome, but also the top scorer in Allsvenskan -- a professional hockey league -- has 26 points in 23 games. The top scorer in the Q has 47 points in 26 games. Quality of competition, scoring rates, have to be considered. Johansson is playing against guys much older, much more experienced than he is.

Maybe Veleno turns into a star, maybe a depth guy, but one could also see him following a similar path as Zach Phillips too.

I just hope FJ makes Team Sweden and does well against his peers.

He's about 100th in the league in points among Defenseman! There's no doubt that The book isn't written on him yet, but the pick continues to puzzle me.

 

[Wabit]

Simon is also almost a year older. It's a wait and see for me.

But the Wild's drafting has pretty much been like this for years, going by comps it seems.

We like Staal and Koivu, so we'll draft JEE.
We like Brodin, so we'll draft Filip Johansson.
We like Matt Cooke, so we'll draft Raphael Bussieres.
We like Kyle Brodziak, so we'll draft Adam Gilmour.
We like Matt Kassian, so we'll draft Kurtis Gabriel.
We like Marty Nanne, so we'll draft Louis Nanne.

might be a flawed approach

Picks that fall 75oa+ are all shots in the dark. I don't (usually) have a problem with taking flyers on guys if they like their comps. It's the top-60 picks that get wasted that bother me. Phillips, Lucia, Bussieres, etc.

I like the BPA approach.
-JEE/Tuch (at the time) were solid picks, not sure if they really were the BPA but they were in the same tier as the players drafted after them.
-Kunin was a decent pick, but with Chychrun still on the board he wasn't the BPA.
-Johansson wasn't the BPA by any pre-draft metric, a totally out of nowhere pick.

 

[Bazeek]

Picks that fall 75oa+ are all shots in the dark. I don't (usually) have a problem with taking flyers on guys if they like their comps. It's the top-60 picks that get wasted that bother me. Phillips, Lucia, Bussieres, etc.

I like the BPA approach.
-JEE/Tuch (at the time) were solid picks, not sure if they really were the BPA but they were in the same tier as the players drafted after them.
-Kunin was a decent pick, but with Chychrun still on the board he wasn't the BPA.
-Johansson wasn't the BPA by any pre-draft metric, a totally out of nowhere pick.

I don't want to re-open this whole can of worms, but there seem to be two "BPA approaches": public-consensus and private-consensus. Maybe they were completely out to lunch on this one, but the Wild almost certainly felt Johansson was the best player available at their pick.

I'm also not sure what a "pre-draft metric" is. There are combine results, which I guess could be considered metrics. Other than that there are just individual and aggregate rankings. They're fun, but I don't want the team running a draft off of them.

Don't get me wrong though, I'm still curious as to what it was/is about Johansson that made him stand out to them.

 

[nt3005]

Im fully comfortable passing on Veleno, seeing as so many other teams did too. I am no draft expert or scout (wish I was) so I will wait the 3-5 years to see how Johansson turns out. I don't think any of the forward picks at that point in the draft were going to help us in the short term anyways, so waiting the same amount of time for a potential middle sixer isnt a big deal.

 

[Wabit]

I don't want to re-open this whole can of worms, but there seem to be two "BPA approaches": public-consensus and private-consensus. Maybe they were completely out to lunch on this one, but the Wild almost certainly felt Johansson was the best player available at their pick.

I'm also not sure what a "pre-draft metric" is. There are combine results, which I guess could be considered metrics. Other than that there are just individual and aggregate rankings. They're fun, but I don't want the team running a draft off of them.

Don't get me wrong though, I'm still curious as to what it was/is about Johansson that made him stand out to them.

It's not just the pre-draft analist rankings, his yearly stats, combine results, the leagues he's been in, highlight tapes, and international tournament play. Seeing him live wasn't an option for (almost) all of us, we weren't there for the interviews, etc. But nothing about him from a fans standpoints says he's a top-25 player in his draft class. Him also being the 1st pick for the new GM puts added weight on this pick.

If he was taken say ~40th then there wouldn't be this 19 page thread on him. We'd only be on page 1 or 2 and have a more positive outlook towards the kid.

 

[Bazeek]

It's not just the pre-draft analist rankings, his yearly stats, combine results, the leagues he's been in, highlight tapes, and international tournament play. Seeing him live wasn't an option for (almost) all of us, we weren't there for the interviews, etc. But nothing about him from a fans standpoints says he's a top-25 player in his draft class. Him also being the 1st pick for the new GM puts added weight on this pick.

If he was taken say ~40th then there wouldn't be this 19 page thread on him. We'd only be on page 1 or 2 and have a more positive outlook towards the kid.

Which is funny, because the gap from #24-#40 doesn't seem all that dramatic to me.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

i was surprised as were most with this pick considering his name was nowhere on boards and i wanted bokk. he is young with time to grow and if i heard and saw correctly he seems to be a right handed Brodin. he looks to get the puck quickly out of our zone and up the ice. His interview was interesting with that and watching prospect camp he did seem to have solid puck retrieval and vision to move it up quickly. Im not sure where you value a late 1st round pick for NHL but i am comfortable waiting 2 years to see where he is at in his growth

 

[AJ Thelen]

It's the top-60 picks that get wasted that bother me. Phillips, Lucia, Bussieres, etc.

Small OT; Lucia actually plays for my hometown team in Norway this year.

 

[Wabit]

Which is funny, because the gap from #24-#40 doesn't seem all that dramatic to me.

Usually somewhere between picks 25-40 (depending on the draft class) is where the guessing begins on players. They players there are usually a tier or 2 below the top-25ish. A 15 pick difference in the 7th round is relatively meaningless, but a 15 pick difference in the 1st round will be the entire lottery once Seattle gets a team.

 

[Wabit]

Small OT; Lucia actually plays for my hometown team in Norway this year.

You watch any of their games? I'm curious as to how he looks on the bigger ice. He was one of those players that seemed like they would thrive on the bigger ice.

 

[Bazeek]

Usually somewhere between picks 25-40 (depending on the draft class) is where the guessing begins on players. They players there are usually a tier or 2 below the top-25ish. A 15 pick difference in the 7th round is relatively meaningless, but a 15 pick difference in the 1st round will be the entire lottery once Seattle gets a team.

And my tentative guess is that that was a factor in the Johansson pick. It was his first draft to start building a prospect pipeline and he likely valued what looks like a safer, high-floor/low-ceiling type defender over some of the boom-bust forwards that were available. I mean it's not sexy, but if Johansson is likely to develop into a Pateryn-level RD with Adam Larsson upside I can see the sense in the choice.

 

[57special]

You watch any of their games? I'm curious as to how he looks on the bigger ice. He was one of those players that seemed like they would thrive on the bigger ice.

Really? He always seemed to have slow feet, to me. That's a killer on the big ice.

 

[Wabit]

And my tentative guess is that that was a factor in the Johansson pick. It was his first draft to start building a prospect pipeline and he likely valued what looks like a safer, high-floor/low-ceiling type defender over some of the boom-bust forwards that were available. I mean it's not sexy, but if Johansson is likely to develop into a Pateryn-level RD with Adam Larsson upside I can see the sense in the choice.

Last year was a deep draft class though. After Bodie Wilde (41 oa) was where I thought the d-man dropoff began; and Johansson should have been taken somewhere after that. The Wild taking Wilde would have been something.

Johansson just seems like the player you could have traded down and still gotten. STL gave up a 3rd just to jump up 4 spots and take Bokk with the very next pick for example.

 

[Wabit]

Really? He always seemed to have slow feet, to me. That's a killer on the big ice.

More he needed just that little extra time/space to process the game. He could do all the physical/skill things, just was slow in reading things.

 

[Bazeek]

Last year was a deep draft class though. After Bodie Wilde (41 oa) was where I thought the d-man dropoff began; and Johansson should have been taken somewhere after that. The Wild taking Wilde would have been something.

Johansson just seems like the player you could have traded down and still gotten. STL gave up a 3rd just to jump up 4 spots and take Bokk with the very next pick for example.

I can't deny the bolded, but trading down always seems like it's easier said than done in the first two rounds. An extra 3rd would've been nice though.

 

[AJ Thelen]

You watch any of their games? I'm curious as to how he looks on the bigger ice. He was one of those players that seemed like they would thrive on the bigger ice.

I'm actually a season ticket holder. He has been a small disappointment. AHL'ers that come over usually tear it up, and we all thought he would do so as well. He has by no means done so. He shows glimpse from time to time with his wrister and dekes, but as pointed out here he is breathtakingly slow. I can't understand how he survived a physical league like AHL being so slow.

He is almost a ppg player this far, and i'm really hoping he will get better and better the more he settles.

 

[Wabit]

I'm actually a season ticket holder. He has been a small disappointment. AHL'ers that come over usually tear it up, and we all thought he would do so as well. He has by no means done so. He shows glimpse from time to time with his wrister and dekes, but as pointed out here he is breathtakingly slow. I can't understand how he survived a physical league like AHL being so slow.

He is almost a ppg player this far, and i'm really hoping he will get better and better the more he settles.

He's a bigger guy and that helps a lot. The AHL is physical, but there are a lot more smaller players (or so it seems) getting chances now.

 

[AKL]

Not trying to get in a huge flame war, but Veleno has 37 points in 23 games. As many as Khovanov in fewer games.
I know defensemen take longer to develop, but I mean, the early signs aren't looking good.

 

[Wabit]

Not trying to get in a huge flame war, but Veleno has 37 points in 23 games. As many as Khovanov in fewer games.
I know defensemen take longer to develop, but I mean, the early signs aren't looking good.

I think GMPF was going to take a d-man almost no matter what with his 1st and only pick in the top-60. It what they did in Nashville most of the time with their top pick.

 

[AKL]

I think GMPF was going to take a d-man almost no matter what with his 1st and only pick in the top-60. It what they did in Nashville most of the time with their top pick.

Seems like for some unbeknownst to anyone else reason, the GM and scouting staff got tunnel vision on this one guy and were going to get him no matter what.

I'd love to be proven wrong still, but I still don't see him as the type of guy you do that for. Would have loved some kind of deeper explanation for the pick than the one they gave on draft day after taking him.

 

[Wabit]

Seems like for some unbeknownst to anyone else reason, the GM and scouting staff got tunnel vision on this one guy and were going to get him no matter what.

I'd love to be proven wrong still, but I still don't see him as the type of guy you do that for. Would have loved some kind of deeper explanation for the pick than the one they gave on draft day after taking him.

I still think they panicked (which I'm probably totally wrong on) a little bit after NYR jumped up and grabbed K'Andre Miller. Too many parallels to the Wild and GMPF's first draft pick in Nash. From St. Paul, played for the USDP, going to UW. It's a #oneofus and Suter combo all in one.

Don't get me wrong I'm sure they had their eyes on Johansson too, but for use with their 1st 3rd, or trade into the 2nd round to get him.

 

[AJ Thelen]

Sweden will publish their rosters for the WJC on Wed. Hope he's on that list.

 

[Wabit]

Sweeden will publish their rosters for the WJC on Wed. Hope he's on that list.

I think S. Johansson has a better chance of making the roster.