Prospect Info: With the #24 pick, the Wild select (D) Filip Johansson (Allsvenskan, Leksands IF)

[Minnesota]

Checked his numbers and he doesn’t seem to be making any progress this season on paper. Anyone have any insight?

 

[Al Lagoon]

Sweden will publish their rosters for the WJC on Wed. Hope he's on that list.

It would be nice, but it's not make or break - Tuch didn't make it, and he seems to have turned out pretty good.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It would be nice, but it's not make or break - Tuch didn't make it, and he seems to have turned out pretty good.

Dumba too.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Dumba too.

Dumba was on Team Canada in 2014.

Alex Tuch was on Team USA in 2015.

 

[Bazeek]

 

[AJ Thelen]

As we feared...

The smell of this pick is not getting better.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

looking at his stats in the past stats he seems to play better vs his peers rather than older kids. might just need a bit of maturing and a learning curve vs older kids to be producing more.

 

[absolute garbage]

Usually somewhere between picks 25-40 (depending on the draft class) is where the guessing begins on players. They players there are usually a tier or 2 below the top-25ish. A 15 pick difference in the 7th round is relatively meaningless, but a 15 pick difference in the 1st round will be the entire lottery once Seattle gets a team.

Not sure when exactly the "guessing" usually begins and the lists start to really differ from each other, but on average there's no meaningful difference in the success rates of picks 15-30 (stats from when there was 30 teams). So basically, statistically speaking all the teams that miss the playoffs have pretty much the same chance of finding an impact player with their 1st round pick (~21%).

Just from stat watching and the fact that he didn't make the WJC team it looks like this guy is a bust. At least the odds are overwhelmingly against him currently. I didn't have issues with the pick as I feel whatever the public scouting community comes up with is overrated and that the people organisations are employing should be able to outperform those lists (why even have a scouting department if not?), but at the same time the unfortunate fact is that if you go outside the "public consensus" like this and the guy ends up busting, you look extra dumb.

 

[57special]

As we feared...

The smell of this pick is not getting better.

I would use words such as "stink" or "reek".

 

[AJ Thelen]

I would use words such as "stink" or "reek".

Bit harsh, don't you think?

Russo has just written on twitter that the pick was all Flahr. GMPF had nothing to do with it. Don't know if true.

 

[57special]

I call BS. If Fenton is the GM, the buck stops there for any player decision. If he handed to decision off to Flahr, then it's still on him.
Seeing Veleno playing as well as he is just makes it worse.

 

[TaLoN]

Bit harsh, don't you think?

Russo has just written on twitter that the pick was all Flahr. GMPF had nothing to do with it. Don't know if true.

The GM has final say on everything. It is worse IMO if Fenton just sat back and watched it all go down trying to take zero credit.

Either he's the GM giving the go ahead and it's his fault, or he handed the reigns of GM to someone else at the draft and it's still his fault.

GMs live and die by personnel and draft decisions. No way to avoid blame in this.

 

[Goose312]

Bit harsh, don't you think?

Russo has just written on twitter that the pick was all Flahr. GMPF had nothing to do with it. Don't know if true.

Flahr worked for Fenton. I'm sure they discussed it beforehand and Fenton gave the okay. Which puts the blame on Fenton. If he didn't discuss and give the okay then it's on Fenton for not doing so and still the blame is on him.

Some people are okay giving the benefit of the doubt here that Flahr/Fenton knew something was special about the kid, personally I think it was the worst single pick of the 2018 draft and will continue to think that until I see the guy skating 20+ minutes a night in a Wild sweater. This draft was too deep to reach 2 rounds for a complete air ball pick.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Flahr worked for Fenton. I'm sure they discussed it beforehand and Fenton gave the okay. Which puts the blame on Fenton. If he didn't discuss and give the okay then it's on Fenton for not doing so and still the blame is on him.

Some people are okay giving the benefit of the doubt here that Flahr/Fenton knew something was special about the kid, personally I think it was the worst single pick of the 2018 draft and will continue to think that until I see the guy skating 20+ minutes a night in a Wild sweater. This draft was too deep to reach 2 rounds for a complete air ball pick.

give the dude some time before you freak out. might have been a reach based on outside speculation of opinions but doesnt mean the kid doesnt have what it takes to play in the nhl. by no means is he a bust this quick.

 

[Victorious Secret]

If Fenton had any inkling of this guy sniffing the first round on our draft board, he should have just fired the scouting department on the spot, gone to the nearest Walgreens to pick up a draft guide, then just picked from there. Absolute joke we wasted a 1st on this trash.

 

[TaLoN]

give the dude some time before you freak out. might have been a reach based on outside speculation of opinions but doesnt mean the kid doesnt have what it takes to play in the nhl. by no means is he a bust this quick.

It felt like a bad pick on draft day, and nothing has happened since to change how it feels.

Yes, he's not a bust yet, but it's tracking in the wrong direction.

 

[chchelseII]

I'll throw gas on this fire. 4 out of the next 5 Swedish defensemen taken, are on that roster.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Not sure how people can spend the better part of a decade on a hockey prospects message board and still not understand how deeply stupid it is to talk about a player being a bust not even half a year after first hearing his name.

He'll still be eligible for this tournament next year and he was in realistic competition for one slot. He's struggled to put up points - it's a low-scoring league and it's not his strength.

Maybe Bokk or Veleno or any other player selected later becomes an NHL star - it's possible! But this thread should be locked until he turns 20.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

It felt like a bad pick on draft day, and nothing has happened since to change how it feels.

Yes, he's not a bust yet, but it's tracking in the wrong direction.

i agree its not in the right direction just saying he isnt a bust yet. i did watch him at development camp. as i stated before vs his peers he doesnt look out of place but when it comes to playing 1 year older or more he seems to just shrink. im hoping a few years in a big boy league in sweden or in the AHL here can grow his game.

 

[Goose312]

Not at all saying he's a bust. Also not saying he's a good pick just because Fenton likes his "smarts" while passing on a wealth of higher rated prospects. Some prospects I'll get hyped for. I don't see a single thing to be excited for in this kid so far. He started at 0 and has stayed there, when he does something noteworthy I'll reassess my opinion.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Not at all saying he's a bust. Also not saying he's a good pick just because Fenton likes his "smarts" while passing on a wealth of higher rated prospects. Some prospects I'll get hyped for. I don't see a single thing to be excited for in this kid so far. He started at 0 and has stayed there, when he does something noteworthy I'll reassess my opinion.

All totally fair. But higher rated by who? Veleno was rated very highly (14) in Bob McKenzie's annual scouts poll, ISS had him at 10, another service had him in the late 30s, and in reality there were many teams that had him below 30th or do not draft. Teams each have their own lists and that's what matters. Filip Johansson topped the Wild's at the time of the pick. It's underwhelming so far but it was the list of a draft director who has had success.

And we know that Sweden's coach likes his upside, and it seems to me that their national team has had success with identifying future NHL defensemen historically.

 

[AKL]

All totally fair. But higher rated by who? Veleno was rated very highly (14) in Bob McKenzie's annual scouts poll, ISS had him at 10, another service had him in the late 30s, and in reality there were many teams that had him below 30th or do not draft. Teams each have their own lists and that's what matters. Filip Johansson topped the Wild's at the time of the pick. It's underwhelming so far but it was the list of a draft director who has had success.

And we know that Sweden's coach likes his upside, and it seems to me that their national team has had success with identifying future NHL defensemen historically.

Generally, there’s a ranking system in place for these prospects, and generally the draft goes pretty close to those aggregated final rankings from those sources. There’s a reason for that. You can’t just discredit these rankings as “armchair scouts taking a guess” or whatever you want to call it.

Sure, movement happens based on team need or just preference, but when the entire hockey world is shocked by this pick because all these rankings had him going a full round or more after where he was taken? You can’t really explain that away with “team preference means he was BPA.” And then when the draft night scouting report is “uhh, well, I guess he’s not particularly bad at anything, but his realistic ceiling is a #4...” it doesn’t help.

By all accounts it was a bad pick at the time based on the evidence most experts had, and it hasn’t gotten better, even slightly. When you swing at a pitch this far out of the strike zone, it damn well better be a home run.

Can he turn into something? Maybe. Is he a bust at this point? No. But it’ll look pretty bad if the more obvious picks at the time end up being better players.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I thought he looked good in development camp and that’s all I’ve seen of him. Stat watching be damned for everything else. He’s a defenseman.

Want proof that poster opinions don’t matter? Go check out the Brodin draft thread. Lot of people confused about that pick as well.

 

[AKL]

I thought he looked good in development camp and that’s all I’ve seen of him. Stat watching be damned for everything else. He’s a defenseman.

Want proof that poster opinions don’t matter? Go check out the Brodin draft thread. Lot of people confused about that pick as well.

It’s not just poster opinions though. Brodin was regarded as a solid pick by the draft analysts and wasn’t a reach based on draft rankings, and most of the confusion was due in large part to not knowing who he was.

Sure he’s a defenseman, but when he’s got 1 point in 23 games both of the last seasons in Sweden’s B league, while a potentially dynamic center that we passed on has 45 points in 25 games (5th in the Q), it doesn’t look good. We need a high end center replacement sooner than we need a #4 RD.

 

[Goose312]

All totally fair. But higher rated by who? Veleno was rated very highly (14) in Bob McKenzie's annual scouts poll, ISS had him at 10, another service had him in the late 30s, and in reality there were many teams that had him below 30th or do not draft. Teams each have their own lists and that's what matters. Filip Johansson topped the Wild's at the time of the pick. It's underwhelming so far but it was the list of a draft director who has had success.

And we know that Sweden's coach likes his upside, and it seems to me that their national team has had success with identifying future NHL defensemen historically.

There's a google doc out there (which I can't link on these boards) of compiled draft boards from 30 NHL writers. Not a single one had him in the 1st round, only 1 had him in the first half of the 2nd round. His average ranking was a very late 2nd or early 3rd.

Maybe the Wild found something in him that no one else saw, I just have no idea what you are seeing to think that they deserve the benefit of the doubt here. If he was having a good or even okay season then sure, I'd give credit to the Wild scouting staff. So far he is having a worse year than last year, no one is talking about him, and his biggest measuring stick of making the WJC roster against his peers has been failed.