Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent III: Discontent with a Vengeance

[Leafin]

I've changed my mind probably a thousand times this winter about what i want the Jays to do. I think we end up with a shorter term option like Dyson for the OF and spend the majority of our money on pitching. Give Hernandez an opportunity to sink or swim. Alford hopefully comes up sometime next season. For all we know Pompey just may figure it out(health) and be a useful piece. Once the Mets fall in the standings we could always trade for Jay Bruce........

With Happ and Estrada getting older and being on 1 year deals i think management would be smart to find a longer term starter so we aren't left scrambling next offseason.

 

[Nineteen67]

A panel at MLB TV has Donaldson as the third best at 3B right now.

Only Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado were ahead.

All the more reason to trade him now and get something for him.....

 

[weems]

So closing in on trade deadline and we're out of it and Donaldson has had a good year.

What type of return are we reasonably looking for?

What can a MVP candidate talent bring back at the deadline with just a few months left before he's a FA.

 

[zeke]

A panel at MLB TV has Donaldson as the third best at 3B right now.

Only Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado were ahead.

which is funny given that donaldson is better than both those guys.

 

[phillipmike]

By the looks of the Cole deal it doesnt look like the Pirates want "good" prospects for their players rather MLB ready pieces. The Cole deal appears very lite and Cutch is older, they have 1 year left and more motivation to deal him plus the market still has a lot of options left. Pirates are one of those teams if they fall in love with a player they will make a deal... let's hope the Jays have 1-2 of those prospects who arent our top guys.

 

[Nineteen67]

So closing in on trade deadline and we're out of it and Donaldson has had a good year.

What type of return are we reasonably looking for?

What can a MVP candidate talent bring back at the deadline with just a few months left before he's a FA.

If this scenario plays out....Let’s hope St Louis is one of those teams in the playoff chase and still in need of a 3b.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

So closing in on trade deadline and we're out of it and Donaldson has had a good year.

What type of return are we reasonably looking for?

What can a MVP candidate talent bring back at the deadline with just a few months left before he's a FA.

Zobrist cost KC Sean Manaea (1st round pick, #73 prospect in MLB, #3 for KC) and Aaron Brooks. Cespedes cost the Mets Michael Fulmer (1st round pick, #53 prospect in MLB) and Luis Cessa.

Donaldson is far superior to both players, and would therefore cost a higher premium. I would say upward trending, top-100 prospect, decent second piece, plus a further away third piece. (ex. Cardinals, Flaherty + Hicks + Carlson).

 

[Nineteen67]

Zobrist cost KC Sean Manaea (1st round pick, #73 prospect in MLB, #3 for KC) and Aaron Brooks. Cespedes cost the Mets Michael Fulmer (1st round pick, #53 prospect in MLB) and Luis Cessa.

Donaldson is far superior to both players, and would therefore cost a higher premium. I would say upward trending, top-100 prospect, decent second piece, plus a further away third piece. (ex. Cardinals, Flaherty + Hicks + Carlson).

I hope there is a suitor.

I hate the Cubs and if he would help St Louis beat them, I’m good with that.

 

[BlueForever75]

How about we focus on making our team better this upcoming season and worry about Donaldson come June-July if we are out of it.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I know some fans want to be as close to the action as possible and interactive, but after the incidents that have occurred throughout the league, it's wise to protect the fans.

I'll never forget one time I was sitting behind home plate. In a row high enough that was just above the protective netting. A foul ball screamed right back, absolutely pelting the seat three over from where we were sitting. Thank goodness no one was there. But that is a downright scary zone.

 

[Anthrax442]

I know some fans want to be as close to the action as possible and interactive, but after the incidents that have occurred throughout the league, it's wise to protect the fans.

I'll never forget one time I was sitting behind home plate. In a row high enough that was just above the protective netting. A foul ball screamed right back, absolutely pelting the seat three over from where we were sitting. Thank goodness no one was there. But that is a downright scary zone.

I saw a tweenage girl get popped in her head. She had her nose buried in her phone and the ball just bounced off the top of her head. She was dazed for a second and then we saw blood come down from under her cap.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I hope there is a suitor.

I hate the Cubs and if he would help St Louis beat them, I’m good with that.

I imagine there will be several. As an example, if the Jays are out of the wild card race approaching the deadline, that means any number of Anaheim, Minnesota, Cleveland, NYY, Bos, Texas, or even Houston could be looking to solidify 3B or DH. And that's just in the AL.

How about we focus on making our team better this upcoming season and worry about Donaldson come June-July if we are out of it.

I agree, though it doesn't hurt to be informed. There's been a prevailing thought that they would actually get less in a deadline rental deal. But there's two recent precedents that say otherwise, which should help calm some people down.

The more interesting, existential question is: The Blue Jays are sitting in the 2nd wild card spot July 27th, and team X offers you the Mets Cespedes deal for Donaldson. The deal has a 75% chance of working out the exact same (i.e. the Fulmer piece has the same level of success relative to Michael Fulmer himself). Guerrero has continued to hit well in Double-A, and has 50 PA's in Triple-A to that point. What do you do....

 

[Kurtz]

I agree, though it doesn't hurt to be informed. There's been a prevailing thought that they would actually get less in a deadline rental deal. But there's two recent precedents that say otherwise, which should help calm some people down.

I'd have to disagree here. Yes, Cespedes brought back a lot in a trade, but we have a more recent precedent of JD Martinez bringing back next to nothing at the TD.

It's just logical that a full season of Donaldson should be worth considerably more in a trade than a fraction of the season. In addition, the market for JD may simply shrink come the deadline if some of his potential suitors find themselves out of the race (granted, a contender may lose their 3B for the season and the market for him may actually expand, but this is less likely I think).

 

[phillipmike]

I'd have to disagree here. Yes, Cespedes brought back a lot in a trade, but we have a more recent precedent of JD Martinez bringing back next to nothing at the TD.

It's just logical that a full season of Donaldson should be worth considerably more in a trade than a fraction of the season. In addition, the market for JD may simply shrink come the deadline if some of his potential suitors find themselves out of the race (granted, a contender may lose their 3B for the season and the market for him may actually expand, but this is less likely I think).

Martinez is an all bat DH playing in the OF who came off a 1.8 WAR season and missed the 1st 40 games of 2017. So not really a good comparison when looking for a comparable to Josh Donaldson especially if he keeps up his 7.0-7.5 WAR pace he has put up in the last 5 years if he plays the full season. Also worth nothing that Donaldson's 2 best career seasons is worth more than JD Martinez's career (16.4 vs 13.6).

Cespedes and Zobrist were better comparable because Cespedes was coming off a 6.7 WAR season and had a 4.0 WAR right before his trade to the Mets and Zobrist was coming off a 5.5WAR season though his in season value was affected by injury he did provide huge defensive value playing 5+ positions well. Both of these players had good defensive value whereas Maritnez didnt at the time of the trade (one of the worst fielding OFs in the game) and Donaldson is one of the best defensive 3Bs in the game.

-------------------

Basically if you are looking for comparable you likely wont find one closer than Cespedes and even then it isnt even a good one because Donaldson is that good. In the last 10 years 33 players have put up a WAR of 7.5 or more with at least 650 PAs and Donaldson has done it 3 times - you can go to 7 WAR and Donaldson has done it 3 times in 44. He is a special player and what makes it even more special is the age he has done it at;

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...&ind=1&team=&rost=&age=29,31&filter=&players=

In the last ten years only 13 players from the age of 29-31 have put up 7 WAR seasons and Donaldson has done it twice (Utley did it twice too).

 

[Discoverer]

There are probably a handful of teams who could afford to add a couple months of Donaldson for $7 million but can't afford to add the full $23 million.

My concern isn't that they wouldn't get enough in a deadline trade, it's that Donaldson will be hurt or that the team will be in a middle-ground position where they're a bit of a long-shot for the playoffs but competitive enough that they can't justify trading their superstar. It's a risky position.

 

[Discoverer]

In regards to McCutchen, I'm quite certain that we're not dealing good prospects for players with 1 year of control left.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense at all. A depth prospect or two is one thing, but the Jays aren't going to trade important pieces of their future for short-term assets.

 

[Nineteen67]

There are probably a handful of teams who could afford to add a couple months of Donaldson for $7 million but can't afford to add the full $23 million.

My concern isn't that they wouldn't get enough in a deadline trade, it's that Donaldson will be hurt or that the team will be in a middle-ground position where they're a bit of a long-shot for the playoffs but competitive enough that they can't justify trading their superstar. It's a risky position.

I agree, it’s risky. I think the time to trade is now, especially if they are not going to add an OF bat that can set the table.

If we knew ticket sales to date, we’d have better idea of when they plan to do something.

 

[phillipmike]

Howie Kendrick back to the Nationals.

7M over 2 years. Not bad for a 1ish WAR player... wonder if this is the sign of a dead market for non top tier guys.

 

[TF97]

If Jon Jay could be had on a deal similar to Kendrick I would be all over that. But I see him getting closer to 5-6M a season.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[hoc123]

Takes a possible suitor off for Cain.

 

[Garlando]

Interested to see the return they get for McCutchen who is a big name (former MVP) but lesser talent than Donaldson with similar term.

 

[hoc123]

Takes a possible suitor off for Cain.

And this confirms it

 

[Woodman19]

Things are lining up for us and Cain. Who else is even Interested?