Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[Jozay]

Ruocco: Can you imagine pitching to this (Yankees) lineup?

Sabathia: No, absolutely not. That’s why I wouldn’t have went to the Blue Jays. If I’m going to be in the East, I’m going to be on the best team. I’m not coming into Yankee Stadium and getting my ass kicked.

CC Sabathia on Why He Chose the Yankees Over the Blue Jays

Lmao, well damn.

 

[zeke]

act like a biatch team, get treated like one.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Very true but I don't think it is in the best interest of the Jays to trade Bo in any Yelich deal. I would rather sign Cain and Bruce, then trade Pearce. Keep prospects.

Oh agreed. They can't sell Ozuna for a non top-100 prospect as the centerpiece, and then get me to drop my pants and trade them a top-5 prospect. Yelich is very very valuable, but Jeter can go kick rocks if that's the price.

 

[Eyedea]

SP depth chart/projection:

Stroman, 202 IP (3.9 fWAR)
Estrada, 183 IP (1.0 fWAR)
Happ, 171 IP (2.3 fWAR)
Sanchez, 130 IP (1.6 fWAR)
Biagini, 122 IP (1.6 fWAR)
Borucki, 83 IP (0.6 fWAR)
Pannone, 19 IP (0.1 fWAR)

I believe this is the current outlook, with Greene/SRF/Guerrieri as tickets that aren't really looked upon unless they have renaissance years. Projections already anticipate less than adequate mediocrity from Estrada, a down to earth/average year from Happ, and a pedestrian return from Sanchez. With that being said, the SPs currently rank 16th under FG's depth charts, 7th in the AL. I'm not particularly interested in investing in a guy like Cobb, who lacks the swing and miss despite harbouring one of the highest Hard% rates in the league. Lynn is interesting, but I don't think the Jays need to put that kind of money into the rotation (put it towards the OF if you need to). As DJQ has mentioned previously, Jaime Garcia is probably the most cost effective and efficient choice. The surplus value he could bring to a 2/16 contract (MLBTR prediction) is potentially outstanding. If he's looking to rebuild value then the Jays are probably one of the last destinations, but if, say, the Jays put out a 2/26 (Estrada comp after his 2015 year) for him then that'd still be a good deal.

 

[Anthrax442]

Ruocco: Can you imagine pitching to this (Yankees) lineup?

Sabathia: No, absolutely not. That’s why I wouldn’t have went to the Blue Jays. If I’m going to be in the East, I’m going to be on the best team. I’m not coming into Yankee Stadium and getting my ass kicked.

CC Sabathia on Why He Chose the Yankees Over the Blue Jays

Lmao, well damn.

Hey, it's honest. But realistically, how many times would he pitch in the Yankee Stadium in a season? twice?

 

[phillipmike]

I dont want a pitcher who isnt confident in his abilities either. Guess what you are doing in the playoffs? Playing the best teams in the league non stop. If he is scared of one of the best teams in the league then that does not bode well for him when he faces the others.

I guess we should expect him to roll up into a ball and give up when he plays Houston.

Nothing wrong with that he said per se just how he said it. Usually guys say they want to win and if they believe they have a better shot at winning with the Yankees over the Jays then it would be hard for anyone to say otherwise as is. But to say you think you will get your ass kicked every time you come as a visitor to Yankee stadium is pretty much admitting you dont have confidence in your ability against good teams.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

SP depth chart/projection:

Stroman, 202 IP (3.9 fWAR)
Estrada, 183 IP (1.0 fWAR)
Happ, 171 IP (2.3 fWAR)
Sanchez, 130 IP (1.6 fWAR)
Biagini, 122 IP (1.6 fWAR)
Borucki, 83 IP (0.6 fWAR)
Pannone, 19 IP (0.1 fWAR)

I believe this is the current outlook, with Greene/SRF/Guerrieri as tickets that aren't really looked upon unless they have renaissance years. Projections already anticipate less than adequate mediocrity from Estrada, a down to earth/average year from Happ, and a pedestrian return from Sanchez. With that being said, the SPs currently rank 16th under FG's depth charts, 7th in the AL. I'm not particularly interested in investing in a guy like Cobb, who lacks the swing and miss despite harbouring one of the highest Hard% rates in the league. Lynn is interesting, but I don't think the Jays need to put that kind of money into the rotation (put it towards the OF if you need to). As DJQ has mentioned previously, Jaime Garcia is probably the most cost effective and efficient choice. The surplus value he could bring to a 2/16 contract (MLBTR prediction) is potentially outstanding. If he's looking to rebuild value then the Jays are probably one of the last destinations, but if, say, the Jays put out a 2/26 (Estrada comp after his 2015 year) for him then that'd still be a good deal.

I think the Sanchez projections should be taken with a grain of salt given the amount of weight placed on 2017. I think the zips projection (2.8 zWAR, 142 IP) is much more realistic.

All that said, prior to any blister issue, his zips projection for 2017 was 4.6 zWAR over 195 IP and a Dave Stieb comp. If he's blister free, you've got one of the best 1-2 punches in the AL. Garcia essentially gives you a second Happ to insulate the rotation.

 

[The Nemesis]

Oh agreed. They can't sell Ozuna for a non top-100 prospect as the centerpiece, and then get me to drop my pants and trade them a top-5 prospect. Yelich is very very valuable, but Jeter can go kick rocks if that's the price.

This is where I'm at. The Yelich (alleged) ask feels like St. Derek is trying desperately to save face after he got raked over the coals for Stanton and Ozuna. But that's not how it works. If you got $0.25 on the dollar from Brian because you were too busy designing this year's gift baskets to pay attention to how badly you were getting hosed, it's not my job to give you $3 on the dollar to let you "balance your books," so to speak.

 

[habamillions]

Jay Bruce to the New york Mets. Thank god. no more to the jays rumors

 

[Leafin]

Ken Rosenthal‏
Source confirms: Jay Bruce back to #Mets, three years, $39 million. Deal first reported by @Jerrycrasnick.

At 3x13 i would've been good with Bruce.

 

[Canada4Gold]

MLBTR nailed that one in their predictions back in November, except they had 39/3 to the Jays

 

[zeke]

phew. thank god.

 

[phillipmike]

Didn't mind trading for him in 2016 or the offseason but didn't want to sign him for more than 2 years. Glad he isn't an option anymore. Not a lot of surplus value in a 3 year deal worth 39M.

Now that Bruce got 3 years instead of his 5. Wonder if a few others will settle... Martinez gets 5 instead of his requested 7. Cain gets 4 instead of 5. Hosmer gets 7 instead of 8 etc.

 

[habamillions]

I want an outfielder with speed. Bruce wasnt that

 

[trellaine201]

Cheap deal for power.

 

[dredeye]

I would think the Bruce signing will start to nudge the market now.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Cheap deal for power.

Still glad we didn't sign him. Now hopefully someone else signs Cain

 

[hockeywiz542]

Jay Bruce deal with #Mets will be pending a physical.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2018

#Astros considered Jay Bruce a fallback option if they traded an outfielder off their current roster, possibly Derek Fisher, source says. Such a deal obviously did not happen, and when #Mets stepped up, Bruce chose not to wait.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2018

Jay Bruce deal with #Mets is backloaded. Breakdown, per source: $10M this season, $14.5M in 2019, $14.5M in ‘20.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2018

 

[Nineteen67]

#Astros considered Jay Bruce a fallback option if they traded an outfielder off their current roster, possibly Derek Fisher, source says. Such a deal obviously did not happen, and when #Mets stepped up, Bruce chose not to wait.


— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2018

Did the Jays offer Bruce?

Does this mean if the Jays want Cain, they had better “step up”.

 

[Anthrax442]

The dominoes will start falling soon enough.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Didn't mind trading for him in 2016 or the offseason but didn't want to sign him for more than 2 years. Glad he isn't an option anymore. Not a lot of surplus value in a 3 year deal worth 39M.

Now that Bruce got 3 years instead of his 5. Wonder if a few others will settle... Martinez gets 5 instead of his requested 7. Cain gets 4 instead of 5. Hosmer gets 7 instead of 8 etc.

Apparently, Martinez has a standing offer from the Red Sox for 5 years. Knowing his agent, he's going to hold out as long as possible. I've already said I'd go 5 on Martinez, but anything north of that is a little silly.

The two KC free agents are interesting. Cain, going into his age 32 season, probably wants the Fowler contract, but will have a hard time justifying it being two years older. Almost feels like it has to be 4, or even 3+1. Hosmer may have just lost San Diego as a suitor with Dave Cameron going there.

 

[BlueForever75]

With Bruce only being signed for 3 years and 39 million I think the Jays missed the boat. He is only getting paid 10 million this season. Sorry as much as everyone is set on Cain, I too would love to have the Jays sign him. But I think the Jays missed the boat on this. They should have offered him 10, 15, 15 with club option for 1o on a fourth. He definitely would have come.

They better end up signing Cain or acquiring Yelich or McClutchen. If not this was a very bad not signing regardless of what people like or dislike about Bruce.

 

[Nineteen67]

With Bruce only being signed for 3 years and 39 million I think the Jays missed the boat. He is only getting paid 10 million this season. Sorry as much as everyone is set on Cain, I too would love to have the Jays sign him. But I think the Jays missed the boat on this. They should have offered him 10, 15, 15 with club option for 1o on a fourth. He definitely would have come.

They better end up signing Cain or acquiring Yelich or McClutchen. If not this was a very bad not signing regardless of what people like or dislike about Bruce.

It’ll be interesting to hear the spin if they don’t....

 

[BlueForever75]

They have 20+ million to spend on FA. Signing Bruce at 1o million for next season would have left 10+ million to spend on a pitcher for the rotation. And you could have given a pitcher like Lynn or Cobb a deal similar to what you did to Bruce.

You have expiring deals on Donaldson (which you don't know what your doing), Estrada, and Happ. You definitely had the dollars to do it. They either low balled or didn't sell it well.

Going to be interested who they get instead.

 

[Discoverer]

They either low balled or didn't sell it well.

Or they just didn't want him that badly, which would be a perfectly reasonable stance.