Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[The Nemesis]

Carry on. I kept meaning to make this switch overnight the last few days, and would then forget.

Thread title is an obvious and (on my part) often re-used gag on the sequel to the greatest christmas movie ever made:

Click to read more...

 

[zeke]

hans, bubby, i'm your white knight.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I look forward to the next thread: Discontent with a Vengeance.

I dislike Kendrys Morales, perhaps more than anyone. However, I stumbled upon this a few days back:

Statcast Search

Statcast Search

Perhaps its not unreasonable to expect a .350 wOBA / 120 wRC+ this year.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I look forward to the next thread: Discontent with a Vengeance.

I dislike Kendrys Morales, perhaps more than anyone. However, I stumbled upon this a few days back:

Statcast Search

Statcast Search

Perhaps its not unreasonable to expect a .350 wOBA / 120 wRC+ this year.

Will part four be Live Free or Die Discontentedly?

 

[phillipmike]

I look forward to the next thread: Discontent with a Vengeance.

I dislike Kendrys Morales, perhaps more than anyone. However, I stumbled upon this a few days back:

Statcast Search

Statcast Search

Perhaps its not unreasonable to expect a .350 wOBA / 120 wRC+ this year.

I definitely dont think he will be as bad as last year but im thinking 110-115 +wRC. Once the lineup stays healthy his bat should be more productive in key spots. Hopefully he can hit better vs RHP as we need better hitting from the left side.

 

[Woodman19]

Going back to an article hockeywiz posted at the end of last thread, teams are unsurprisingly interested in our relievers. Which one would you guys be willing to move and what do you expect the return to be?

 

[phillipmike]

Melvin Upton Jr. signs a minor league deal with the Indians

 

[phillipmike]

Going back to an article hockeywiz posted at the end of last thread, teams are unsurprisingly interested in our relievers. Which one would you guys be willing to move and what do you expect the return to be?

With mediocre guys getting 2-3 years at 7-9M per i am sure they have interest in our guys who are just as good if not better a league minimum.

To be honest i would trade anyone of our relievers depending on what is being offered - heck i would trade them all. It is such a volatile position i would try to cash in on the value now.

That being said usually it takes 1.5-2 years before a team really buys into a reliever. So the two that will have teams interested are Tepera and Biagini and i doubt a team is giving up enough for you to want to move them unless someone hires Dave Stewart.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Going back to an article hockeywiz posted at the end of last thread, teams are unsurprisingly interested in our relievers. Which one would you guys be willing to move and what do you expect the return to be?

I prefer to keep them, given their effectiveness coupled with low price tags. None would really return value vs. what they could provide. The beauty of having them is that no capital needs to be allocated to the bullpen (outside of Osuna's arb reward), which allows you to allocate it elsewhere. I would also cease the Biagini as a starter project, and just roll with a good cheap bullpen.

Osuna, Leone, Biagini, Tepera, Barnes, Mayza. Costs less as a collective than Brandon Morrow will cost the Cubs in 2018. Tender Aaron Loup a contract, and you're set to start the season with a good bullpen costing ~$10MM.

 

[Woodman19]

I never really noticed how fantastic of a season Leone had. 4 Years of club control and projected to earn $1.2 million as a Super 2. Not bad for dumpster diving huh.

 

[Woodman19]

I prefer to keep them, given their effectiveness coupled with low price tags. None would really return value vs. what they could provide. The beauty of having them is that no capital needs to be allocated to the bullpen (outside of Osuna's arb reward), which allows you to allocate it elsewhere. I would also cease the Biagini as a starter project, and just roll with a good cheap bullpen.

Osuna, Leone, Biagini, Tepera, Barnes, Mayza. Costs less as a collective than Brandon Morrow will cost the Cubs in 2018. Tender Aaron Loup a contract, and you're set to start the season.

I completely agree with you, but let's say you have to move one that has multiple years of control, who do you part with?

 

[phillipmike]

Osuna, Leone, Biagini, Tepera, Barnes, Mayza. Costs less as a collective than Brandon Morrow will cost the Cubs in 2018. Tender Aaron Loup a contract, and you're set to start the season with a good bullpen costing ~$10MM.

Top 10 bullpen for under 10M. I dont agree with Bob McCowan on many things but when it comes to building a bullpen he is right. Dont invest long term and you find someone that sticks as they are so volatile.

I completely agree with you, but let's say you have to move one that has multiple years of control, who do you part with?

For me it would probably be Barnes. Throws 92 and is 28 years old. That being said i doubt he gets you anything of value - every team has a bunch of Danny Barnes type players.

 

[zeke]

I never really noticed how fantastic of a season Leone had. 4 Years of club control and projected to earn $1.2 million as a Super 2. Not bad for dumpster diving huh.

dumpster diving is definitely the smartest way to fill out the bottom of the roster for peanuts. bullpen, bench, 5th/6th/7th SP, even a couple spots atvthe bott of the lineup. they should all be cheapo nothing contracts....and lots of them.

 

[zeke]

I look forward to the next thread: Discontent with a Vengeance.

I dislike Kendrys Morales, perhaps more than anyone. However, I stumbled upon this a few days back:

Statcast Search

Statcast Search

Perhaps its not unreasonable to expect a .350 wOBA / 120 wRC+ this year.

we saw this same post last winter.

 

[theaub]

And this year Kendrys Morales will continue to smash groundballs into the shift.

At this point he may as well hit RH full time because he's basically a non-entity as a LHB unless he hits it out of the park.

 

[phillipmike]

And this year Kendrys Morales will continue to smash groundballs into the shift.

At this point he may as well hit RH full time because he's basically a non-entity as a LHB unless he hits it out of the park.

Theoretically if our better players are healthy and getting on base in front of him team cant put on the exaggerated shifts on him making it easier for him to get on base. That being said he has to hit better with runners on than what he did last year.

 

[Discoverer]

I look forward to the next thread: Discontent with a Vengeance.

I dislike Kendrys Morales, perhaps more than anyone. However, I stumbled upon this a few days back:

Statcast Search

Statcast Search

Perhaps its not unreasonable to expect a .350 wOBA / 120 wRC+ this year.

One thing that stands out right away is that the guys who most underperformed their xwOBA are almost all hilariously slow, and the guys who overperformed are mostly really, really fast. So... I mostly expect more of the same.

 

[Kurtz]

With mediocre guys getting 2-3 years at 7-9M per i am sure they have interest in our guys who are just as good if not better a league minimum.

To be honest i would trade anyone of our relievers depending on what is being offered - heck i would trade them all. It is such a volatile position i would try to cash in on the value now.

That being said usually it takes 1.5-2 years before a team really buys into a reliever. So the two that will have teams interested are Tepera and Biagini and i doubt a team is giving up enough for you to want to move them unless someone hires Dave Stewart.

Can you explain to me what you mean when you say that bullpens are too volatile to invest in? Why do you believe that bullpens are more volatile than starting pitchers? Should we not invest in Osuna, and just sell high on him? Are you ok with us throwing 8 random guys into the pen, then watching 4 succeed while the other 4 guys cost us 4 games early in the year, for instance?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I completely agree with you, but let's say you have to move one that has multiple years of control, who do you part with?

Leone, as he nets the highest return, and has a danger of turning back into 2016 Leone.

we saw this same post last winter.

Thx for the memories.

And this year Kendrys Morales will continue to smash groundballs into the shift.

At this point he may as well hit RH full time because he's basically a non-entity as a LHB unless he hits it out of the park.

Yep, he needs to go to the JD Martinez "groundballs are for suckers" school.

Can you explain to me what you mean when you say that bullpens are too volatile to invest in? Why do you believe that bullpens are more volatile than starting pitchers? Should we not invest in Osuna, and just sell high on him? Are you ok with us throwing 8 random guys into the pen, then watching 4 succeed while the other 4 guys cost us 4 games early in the year, for instance?

I believe a non-elite starting pitcher has a higher chance of maintaining his level of effectiveness when compared to a non-elite relief pitcher.

Now paying for elite relief pitching is not a bad investment at all, as elite closers tend to sustain their level of effectiveness throughout their prime. At least when using the last ~20 years as a sample size. So, you invest in Osuna (or Jensen, or Kimbrel, etc.) but don't invest in the Cischek's, or Neshek's, or Joe Smith's of the world.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

One thing that stands out right away is that the guys who most underperformed their xwOBA are almost all hilariously slow, and the guys who overperformed are mostly really, really fast. So... I mostly expect more of the same.

Absolutely a correlation there.

 

[Discoverer]

Can you explain to me what you mean when you say that bullpens are too volatile to invest in? Why do you believe that bullpens are more volatile than starting pitchers? Should we not invest in Osuna, and just sell high on him? Are you ok with us throwing 8 random guys into the pen, then watching 4 succeed while the other 4 guys cost us 4 games early in the year, for instance?

I think a lot of it is just the perception of volatility because of the small sample sizes. If a starter has 50 bad innings, he has another 150 innings to get back to his career averages. If a reliever has 50 bad innings, he had a bad season. Even if he gets back to his career averages over the next 150 innings, that takes place over three more seasons, so you look at his year to year stats and say "Wow, that guy's inconsistent."

 

[phillipmike]

Can you explain to me what you mean when you say that bullpens are too volatile to invest in? Why do you believe that bullpens are more volatile than starting pitchers? Should we not invest in Osuna, and just sell high on him? Are you ok with us throwing 8 random guys into the pen, then watching 4 succeed while the other 4 guys cost us 4 games early in the year, for instance?

Just like any other position money doesnt solve your problems all the time. You can invest highly in a bullpen and not get results year to year. More often than none if someone fails you can call someone up from the minors and they could find some success. Case in point the 2017 Blue Jays; Grilli and Howell were bad... Call up Leone and Barnes and we are good. We had countless injuries to our rotation and lineup and we called players up = less success filling the rotation and lineup. Same with the 2016 team; turned Storen into Benoit, Grilli came in and helped and we gave up nothing, Chavez was bad and guys like Barnes and Tepera helped the team.

DJQ and Discoverer pretty much gave you my thoughts on your question;

I believe a non-elite starting pitcher has a higher chance of maintaining his level of effectiveness when compared to a non-elite relief pitcher.

Now paying for elite relief pitching is not a bad investment at all, as elite closers tend to sustain their level of effectiveness throughout their prime. At least when using the last ~20 years as a sample size. So, you invest in Osuna (or Jensen, or Kimbrel, etc.) but don't invest in the Cischek's, or Neshek's, or Joe Smith's of the world.

I think a lot of it is just the perception of volatility because of the small sample sizes. If a starter has 50 bad innings, he has another 150 innings to get back to his career averages. If a reliever has 50 bad innings, he had a bad season. Even if he gets back to his career averages over the next 150 innings, that takes place over three more seasons, so you look at his year to year stats and say "Wow, that guy's inconsistent."

 

[BlueForever75]

These teams that are spending what they are on the bullpen to me is absurd. I also agreed with what Bob McCowan has always stated. Spending money on the bullpen is useless. Bullpen pitchers are failed starters. Every single one of the bullpen arms were never drafted as relievers, they were drafted as starters.

If an organization cannot build a bullpen from within there is an issue. Your not drafting well. Any failed starter should be able to turn into a bullpen arm to some degree. To me the Jays unwillingness to spend on the bullpen is great, I don't see value in paying a bullpen arm upwards of 8 million dollars. Especially when they are hit and miss year to year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

These teams that are spending what they are on the bullpen to me is absurd. I also agreed with what Bob McCowan has always stated. Spending money on the bullpen is useless. Bullpen pitchers are failed starters. Every single one of the bullpen arms were never drafted as relievers, they were drafted as starters.

If an organization cannot build a bullpen from within there is an issue. Your not drafting well. Any failed starter should be able to turn into a bullpen arm to some degree. To me the Jays unwillingness to spend on the bullpen is great, I don't see value in paying a bullpen arm upwards of 8 million dollars. Especially when they are hit and miss year to year.

You make a good point, then slide into a fallacy right after.

While volatility with bullpen arms can be explained by the very fact that they are relievers (i.e. guys who not start because their stuff could either not be sustained for several times through an order, or because they only had\have one to two major league offerings; and therefore, hitters figure them out eventually), not every reliever is a failed or converted starter. Kimbrel was never a starter, nor was Jensen (converted catcher), nor was Knebel, nor was Cody Allen.