Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

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BlueForever75

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Oct 4, 2017
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Here are the projections from MLBTR
  • Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
  • Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
  • Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
  • Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
  • Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
  • Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
  • Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
  • Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM
Donaldson signed for $23M, Sanchez for $2.7M, Loup for $1,812,500M, Carrera for $1.9M, and I could be forgetting someone.

I thought Donaldson made 20 last year off arbitration??? How was he projected to make the same this season??? And I could have sworn that I read some place else that both Loup and Sanchez were projected to make more as well!!! Hence why I thought we saved.

Sorry my bad
 

sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
13,834
4,705
Toronto
I believe both Sanchez and Donaldson settled for less in arbitration then was expected. Donaldson was projected to may 24 million and Sanchez was 3.5 million. Does this mean we have more dollars for FA?

Loup also signed for less then 2.5 that was projected
Sanchez actually got more than projected.

I wonder if Donaldson gets moved before spring or they wait until closer to deadline. Seems the price might be highest now.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
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There are always exceptions but the fact remains moving to a foreign country is not appealing to every FA.
Living in Toronto has more hurdles than living in a US city for a lot of athletes.

I thought this was established science. Steve Stamkos would agree.

This is the perception from us fans but has anyone outright said it other than a few people (and even their names arent coming to mind). The tax difference can be a big one especially comparing to a state like Florida. But most of this stuff is what the fans and media create.

Players will come based on 1 or both of 2 things. Winning and money. And most of the time the Jays lose out based on money because they arent willing to sign a bad deal to get a player. AA did a good job of this (biggest contract was Martin - stayed away from guys like Fielder and others) and Shapiro/Atkins have avoided some bad ones so far in Bautista and Price (would say they avoided on a guy like Fowler who the Cards were rumored to dealing one year later). Morales is probably the only only black eye so far but again not really a long term deal at 3 years.

So no not an established science.
 
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Garlando

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May 5, 2014
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Kingston, Ontario
Article on Fangraphs about J.D. Martinez's potential for falling off a cliff: J.D. Martinez’s Potential for Falling Off a Cliff | FanGraphs Baseball

He can be a below-average baserunner and defender and still return a $150 million investment. He just can’t be as bad as his numbers last season or over the course of his career indicate. I think it is fair to expect two more really good seasons from Martinez. After that, the range of outcomes is enormous. Expecting good production in 2020 is a risk that any signing club is going to have to take.

Just thought it was interesting as I know a few posters here were interested in J.D. Martinez for the Jays.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
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Sigh, I was hoping Donaldson wouldn't settle on 1 year or go to arbitration and get the 1 year. We can extend him still obviously, but with the settlement already made to avoid arbitration at 1 year, it's likely that we won't see an extention before the year.

Worse case scenario is losing him for nothing. We can't do that.
 

Albert Iafrate

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Feb 29, 2008
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Please ignore this if this is stupid (rather than calling me an idiot), but why wouldn't we now trade Donaldson to a team where both parties are interested in an extension, then sign Mike Moustakas to a three year deal to replace him until Vlad Jr. is ready. Obviously Donaldson at 23M and a 4.8 WAR is better value than Moose at 18 - 20M with a 1.8 WAR, but the assets we get back for Donaldson from a team where he would be comfortable re-signing with would jumpstart the future of this team while still keeping us competitive for the AL wild card. Especially if we get someone like Alex Reyes or Luke Weaver from the Cards. If you don't think this is stupid, but disagree, please explain.
 

Garlando

Registered User
May 5, 2014
685
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Kingston, Ontario
Worse case scenario is losing him for nothing. We can't do that.

I agree, the Jays are not in a position to just lose Donaldson for the bare minimum. My guess is that if the team is competitive, they'll hold onto him compete and try and sell Donaldson. If the team falters, I think they will look to move him at the deadline. My concern with that approach, is that you're likely not to maximize your potential return at the deadline, especially if the team sucks, because the leverage the Jays will have at that point is small. To me, moving him this offseason maximizes the return you can get on a Donaldson deal at this point. The downside to moving him now though is you're very unlikely to add pieces that can make you better right now, so you're waving the white flag on the season before it even starts and you'll likely see a hit at the gates as a result.
 

Woodman19

Registered User
Jun 14, 2008
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Please ignore this if this is stupid (rather than calling me an idiot), but why wouldn't we now trade Donaldson to a team where both parties are interested in an extension, then sign Mike Moustakas to a three year deal to replace him until Vlad Jr. is ready. Obviously Donaldson at 23M and a 4.8 WAR is better value than Moose at 18 - 20M with a 1.8 WAR, but the assets we get back for Donaldson from a team where he would be comfortable re-signing with would jumpstart the future of this team while still keeping us competitive for the AL wild card. Especially if we get someone like Alex Reyes or Luke Weaver from the Cards. If you don't think this is stupid, but disagree, please explain.
Donaldson (despite what he says in public) probably has little to no desire to talk extension unless he is getting market value. Being so close to free agency and being one of the top 5 players in the game for the past 3 years sets him up nicely for a huge payday next winter. I suspect we have been trying to get good value for him but teams don't want to unload the farm for a rental.
 

Nineteen67

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Dec 12, 2017
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Please ignore this if this is stupid (rather than calling me an idiot), but why wouldn't we now trade Donaldson to a team where both parties are interested in an extension, then sign Mike Moustakas to a three year deal to replace him until Vlad Jr. is ready. Obviously Donaldson at 23M and a 4.8 WAR is better value than Moose at 18 - 20M with a 1.8 WAR, but the assets we get back for Donaldson from a team where he would be comfortable re-signing with would jumpstart the future of this team while still keeping us competitive for the AL wild card. Especially if we get someone like Alex Reyes or Luke Weaver from the Cards. If you don't think this is stupid, but disagree, please explain.

Im guessing Donaldson doesn’t want to sign an extension right now, which makes it difficult to trade him for anything of value. I’m sure the Cardinals could sign him to an extension but there is no incentive for them to give up the farm.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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A full year of JD has to be worth a bundle on its own, let alone the fact that he seems to be amenable on resigning, rather than being determined on hitting free agency like Machado is.
 
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habamillions

Registered User
Jul 9, 2009
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Ottawa
Stroman filed at 6.9. Osuna at 5.8. Jays offered 6.5 and 5.3 respectively. Should get resolved. Not far apart. As for mookir betts and the sox, they are way apart. Betts wants 10.5 and sox only offered 7.5. Also strange graveman and straily went in at asking less then the teams. Must be a mistake or agents are really bad
 

Dr.Funk

Registered User
Jul 2, 2004
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Blue Jays and RHP Dominic Leone avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $1.085 million contract

Blue Jays and OF Kevin Pillar avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $3.25 million contract
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
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MLB Trade Rumors Arb Predictions:
Josh Donaldson - 20.7M
Marcus Stroman - 7.2M
Roberto Osuna - 5.6M
Kevin Pillar - 4M
Aaron Sanchez - 1.9M
Ezequiel Carrera 1.9M
Aaron Loup - 1.81M
Devon Travis - 1.7M
Dominic Leone - 1.2M

Total: 44.1M

MLB Trade Rumors Actual Arb:

Josh Donaldson - 23M
Marcus Stroman - 6.5 or 6.9M
Roberto Osuna - 5.3M or 5.8M
Kevin Pillar - 3.25M
Aaron Sanchez - 2.7M
Ezequiel Carrera 1.9M
Aaron Loup - 1.81M
Devon Travis - 1.45M
Dominic Leone - 1.09M

Total: 47M or 47.9M

If the Jays as per Atkins only have 20M to work with next season then their OD payroll looks like it will be around 168M.
 
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