Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[Discoverer]

Unless they think they can make Galvis more valuable i just dont see why anyone would want 1-1.5 WAR player making roughly 7.4 million dollars in his last year of arb. Outside of his defense i dont see a lot to like especially for 7 million.

The Padres do a lot of weird stuff.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Can you get them to add Alex Dickerson as a throw in too?

Also, Pirela was the Padres most valuable position player last year in terms of WAR at 2.1 while playing just 83 games.

I love me some Alex Dickerson. I remember that homerun he destroyed at Rogers Centre a couple years ago, and the Jays just not being able to get him out, and I was like "d'fuq is this guy?"

Considering his back is a real concern, I'm certain they would mind tossing him into a hypothetical trade.

In the minors, Dickerson posted middling walk rates but also limited his strikeouts while hitting for impressive power. In the majors last season, he walked in 9% of his plate appearances while also striking out at one of the lowest rates of his career. He ranked on the better side of league average by most plate discipline metrics, boding well for his transition to the majors. And he also hit for the power we'd expect, going yard 10 times on the way to a .198 isolated slugging percentage. Most impressively, he managed to hit for power while also limiting his swinging-strike rate to just 8%, two points better than the league average. I'm very bullish on Dickerson's abilities in 2017.

 

[BlueForever75]

There's a difference between being a starter in college and being "drafted as a starter".

Loup was drafted with the intention of being a reliever. He made five starts scattered among his 35 second-year appearances and never started a game again.
Barnes made two starts in his second season in the organization and one more a few years later. He wasn't "tried as a starter".
Leone has never made a start at any level for any team.

Whether or not a pitcher is a reliever or a starter in the minor leagues, they are all drafted as players that were starters for their school. McCowan saying they are failed starters still holds true. The point that is being made is that a team drafts a kid in the lower rounds that were starters but groom them to be pieces to a future bullpen role. This should be the plan not going out to spend 8 million plus on a reliever. There are enough rounds and time to pick and hit on one of the draft choices to become that integral piece at a much lower cost. That's what the draft and minors are for. To draft and build for these pieces.

 

[Discoverer]

Whether or not a pitcher is a reliever or a starter in the minor leagues, they are all drafted as players that were starters for their school. McCowan saying they are failed starters still holds true. The point that is being made is that a team drafts a kid in the lower rounds that were starters but groom them to be pieces to a future bullpen role. This should be the plan not going out to spend 8 million plus on a reliever. There are enough rounds and time to pick and hit on one of the draft choices to become that integral piece at a much lower cost. That's what the draft and minors are for. To draft and build for these pieces.

A pitcher who has never had an opportunity to start at any level of the minors is not a "failed starter".

 

[phillipmike]

The Padres do a lot of weird stuff.

Wow they gave up their 13th best prospect (deep system imo). Enyel De Los Santos

 

[BlueForever75]

A pitcher who has never had an opportunity to start at any level of the minors is not a "failed starter".

Bud you are really being technical and not reading what is being said. "failed starter" is maybe not the correct term. But what about one drafted starter deemed better to be developed as a reliever through the minors? Does this tickle your fancy!!!

Doesn't matter how you put it, in the end its not worth spending 8 million plus on a reliever when you should be developing them yourself!!! What would a closer like Osuna cost in free agency? These other one year wonders are getting 9 million a season (Morrow????)....really!!!! My point is the money saved on stupidness being thrown around for these guys and not getting involved in that market is the best thing current management is doing. Even better, they may wait until the end and sign a cheaper guy like we did with Joe Smith last season and allow him to have a fantastic season which in turn we can flip for another prospect or two later. These relievers are so hit and miss, that a 8 million plus reliever can be worse then a 3-4 million dollar one.

Not worth it. Grow your own or pickup on the cheap and hope you hit on it so it works for organization one way or another.

 

[zeke]

About to be Wladimir Balentien.

I encourage everyone to look at the aging curves for Mike Cameron, Shane Victorino, Randy Winn, Johnny Damon, Kenny Lofton, and Torii Hunter. Specifically, what their ISO\wRC+\wOBA\UZR\RngR were from age 28-32, and then what they were from age 33-37.

cain is only 31, so next year is his age 32 season. I'll go with the 4yrs up to age 31, and he 4yrs after.
(since the 5th yr is just a sweetener anyways).

similars from the last 25yrs or so

Age 28-31

B.Jordan 1863pa, 118wrc+, 17.5war, 6.1war/650
L.Cain 2185pa, 114wrc+, 17.9war, 5.3war/650
M.Cameron 2447pa, 104wrc+, 20.0war, 5.3war/650
D.White 2514pa, 104wrc+, 19.8war, 5.1war/650
K.Lofton 2527pa, 111wrc+, 19.2war, 4.9war/650
I.Suzuki 2954pa, 117wrc+, 21.0war, 4.6war/650
R.Winn 2720pa, 115wrc+, 17.1war, 4.1war/650
C.Granderson 2613pa, 119wrc+, 16.3war, 4.1war/650
A.Soriano 2685pa, 115wrc+, 16.5war, 4.0war/650
S.Victorino 2594pa, 110wrc+, 15.3war, 3.8war/650
J.Ellsbury 2095pa, 100wrc+, 11.7war, 3.6war/650
J.Damon 2782pa, 110wrc+, 13.9war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2246pa, 111wrc+, 10.4war, 3.0war/650

well, "similars" is generous - he's been better than almost all of them and much better than a bunch of them.

Age 32-35

I.Suzuki 2915pa, 113wrc+, 21.4war, 4.8war/650
J.Damon 2525pa, 116wrc+, 13.3war, 3.4war/650
M.Cameron 2136pa, 113wrc+, 12.5war, 3.8war/650
K.Lofton 2388pa, 103wrc+, 12.0war, 3.3war/650
B.Jordon 2302pa, 105wrc+, 11.8war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2409pa, 120wrc+, 11.2war, 3.0war/650
R.Winn 2552pa, 94wrc+, 11.0war, 2.8war/650
C.Granderson 2214pa, 116wrc+, 10.5war, 3.1war/650
D.White 2011pa, 100wrc+, 9.3war, 3.0war/650
A.Soriano 2081pa, 104wrc+, 7.6war, 2.4war/650
S.Victorino 869pa, 102wrc+, 6.0war, 4.5war/650
J.Ellsbury 1035pa, 95wrc+, 3.6war, 2.3war/650

Seems like most all of them aged very well, actually. A couple guys did get destroyed by injury, but otherwise most of them performed well enough to justify the kind of deal Cain is rumoured to be getting.

 

[Kurtz]

cain is only 31, so next year is his age 32 season. I'll go with the 4yrs up to age 31, and he 4yrs after.
(since the 5th yr is just a sweetener anyways).

similars from the last 25yrs or so

Age 28-31

B.Jordan 1863pa, 118wrc+, 17.5war, 6.1war/650
L.Cain 2185pa, 114wrc+, 17.9war, 5.3war/650
M.Cameron 2447pa, 104wrc+, 20.0war, 5.3war/650
D.White 2514pa, 104wrc+, 19.8war, 5.1war/650
K.Lofton 2527pa, 111wrc+, 19.2war, 4.9war/650
I.Suzuki 2954pa, 117wrc+, 21.0war, 4.6war/650
R.Winn 2720pa, 115wrc+, 17.1war, 4.1war/650
C.Granderson 2613pa, 119wrc+, 16.3war, 4.1war/650
A.Soriano 2685pa, 115wrc+, 16.5war, 4.0war/650
S.Victorino 2594pa, 110wrc+, 15.3war, 3.8war/650
J.Ellsbury 2095pa, 100wrc+, 11.7war, 3.6war/650
J.Damon 2782pa, 110wrc+, 13.9war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2246pa, 111wrc+, 10.4war, 3.0war/650

well, "similars" is generous - he's been better than almost all of them and much better than a bunch of them.

Age 32-35

I.Suzuki 2915pa, 113wrc+, 21.4war, 4.8war/650
J.Damon 2525pa, 116wrc+, 13.3war, 3.4war/650
M.Cameron 2136pa, 113wrc+, 12.5war, 3.8war/650
K.Lofton 2388pa, 103wrc+, 12.0war, 3.3war/650
B.Jordon 2302pa, 105wrc+, 11.8war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2409pa, 120wrc+, 11.2war, 3.0war/650
R.Winn 2552pa, 94wrc+, 11.0war, 2.8war/650
C.Granderson 2214pa, 116wrc+, 10.5war, 3.1war/650
D.White 2011pa, 100wrc+, 9.3war, 3.0war/650
A.Soriano 2081pa, 104wrc+, 7.6war, 2.4war/650
S.Victorino 869pa, 102wrc+, 6.0war, 4.5war/650
J.Ellsbury 1035pa, 95wrc+, 3.6war, 2.3war/650

Seems like most all of them aged very well, actually. A couple guys did get destroyed by injury, but otherwise most of them performed well enough to justify the kind of deal Cain is rumoured to be getting.

Unless you think MLB will relax its PED standards to the levels we saw back when many of these guys were getting'er done, we should expect to see much more drastic declines in the current environment. Pre and Post PED era aging charts reflect a massive drop from the drug fuelled era for batters over 30.

 

[zeke]

pretty sure a bunch of those guys were post-PED era in those decline years.

 

[The Nemesis]

Will part four be Live Free or Die Discontentedly?

followed by part 5: A Good Day for Discontent (starring Jai Courtney)

 

[Kurtz]

pretty sure a bunch of those guys were post-PED era in those decline years.

Would looking at those 6 guys be more valuable than looking at the MLB world on the whole in terms of statistical inference/validity?

Or do you disagree with the data that clearly shows a massive delta between older player performance pre and post-steroid era?

 

[zeke]

Would looking at those 6 guys be more valuable than looking at the MLB world on the whole in terms of statistical inference/validity?

maybe? which 6 is it?

Or do you disagree with the data that clearly shows a massive delta between older player performance pre and post-steroid era?

I don't think the data shows that massive a delta, and of course the data that I've seen on it is pretty small sample stuff so far.

Plenty of good old players in the league the last few years, for the record.

 

[habamillions]

Carlos santana got quite the payday.

 

[phillipmike]

Santana gets huge money from the Philles - 60M over 3 years.

Cozart to the Angels - 38M over 3 years. i guess to play 3B. Hard not to like the Angels moves those their pitching is still uninspiring.

Hopefully the market moves now.

 

[zeke]

that is an unreal price for cozart. wow.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

Cozart's deal is a steal in itself but we will see how he plays at 3B. I dont think his arm is that strong to play 3B but his overall defense is good. That's a 5 WAR player last season and he got 13M a year... I would take Cozart over Segura and Segura got more than double. I know the age difference but Cozart only got in the majors at 25.

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

I know EE had a 1st attached to him but it is pure lunacy that EE and Santana are getting essentially the same deal. Phillies are going to regret that Santana deal in my opinion.

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[BlueForever75]

Santana gets huge money from the Philles - 60M over 3 years.

Cozart to the Angels - 38M over 3 years. i guess to play 3B. Hard not to like the Angels moves those their pitching is still uninspiring.

Hopefully the market moves now.

How bad does that Cozart deal look right now to the Jays???? If he was willing to take that to play 3rd I bet he would have taken the same to play 2nd. We could have moved Travis to OF. Wish the Jays would have at least considered. Not to mention great flexibility if Tulo ever got hurt.

 

[Woodman19]

And the dominoes start.

 

[Gargyn]

Yeah, Stroman needs to be quiet.

He’ll find himself traded soon enough

He's an idiot. Talented but arrogant as f***. His attitude sucks in my opinion but as long as it's not a clubhouse distraction, whatever. But I try to ignore his tweets as they are usually him bragging about himself.

 

[Eyedea]

How bad does that Cozart deal look right now to the Jays???? If he was willing to take that to play 3rd I bet he would have taken the same to play 2nd. We could have moved Travis to OF. Wish the Jays would have at least considered. Not to mention great flexibility if Tulo ever got hurt.

I'm sure the Angels re-signing Upton, winning the Ohtani bid, and trading for Kinsler helped. Anywho, that infield defence is uhh, stacked to say the least.

 

[phillipmike]

How bad does that Cozart deal look right now to the Jays???? If he was willing to take that to play 3rd I bet he would have taken the same to play 2nd. We could have moved Travis to OF. Wish the Jays would have at least considered. Not to mention great flexibility if Tulo ever got hurt.

Who is to know if they did or didnt. Cozart may prefer to play in an easier division on California than in Canada.

I wouldnt trust Travis in the OF. I really dont want our OF solution for a 2nd year to be sticking an infielder in the OF (Pearce). If we didnt have Tulo or Travis i would have loved Cozart on that deal but considering our budget of 25-30M i prefer spending 13-15M on an actual OF. Just my preference.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[BlueForever75]

Just sucks we have the money tied up in Tulo like we do when we have a SS like Cozart going for what he did. That extra 12 million in salary sure would have been useful someplace else.

But I think Tulo will bounce back. Just think the Rockies and Mets really screwed up the SS payday back in the day with Tulo and Reyes. Not when players like Ripken, or Jeter got paid nothing close to what they are making.

 

[BlueForever75]

Rogers just keeps making, and they should be investing that back into payroll. Doesn't surprise me.