Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[Discoverer]

Bullpen pitchers are failed starters. Every single one of the bullpen arms were never drafted as relievers, they were drafted as starters.

Of the seven Jays relievers who threw at least 30 innings last year, four of them (Barnes, Loup, Smith, Leone) were never starters at any level of the minors.

 

[Kurtz]

Of the seven Jays relievers who threw at least 30 innings last year, four of them (Barnes, Loup, Smith, Leone) were never starters at any level of the majors.

Yep, and we can't exactly call Osuna a failed starter either given that he was forced into relief for us because we didn't spend any money on the pen that year and were blowing bullpen games left and right.

 

[zeke]

Yep, and we can't exactly call Osuna a failed starter either given that he was forced into relief for us because we didn't spend any money on the pen that year and were blowing bullpen games left and right.

Moving him to the pen for that year was inspired genius.

Keeping him there is stupidity.

 

[zeke]

Last year:

Cain: 645pa, 115wrc+, 4.1fwar, 5.3bwar, 4.7avg/650
Yelich: 695pa, 115wrc+, 4.5fwar, 3.9bwar, 3.9avg/650

Last 2yrs:

Cain: 1079pa, 109wrc+, 6.6fwar, 8.2bwar, 4.5avg/650
Yelich: 1354pa, 123wrc+, 9.0fwar, 9.2bwar, 4.4avg/650

Last 3yrs:

Cain: 1683pa, 116wrc+, 13.1war, 15.4bwar, 5.5avg/650
Yelich: 1879pa, 122wrc+, 11.4fwar, 12.7bwar, 4.2avg/650

 

[phillipmike]

DJQ your boy Oswaldo Arcia signed in Japan.

Hector Rondon signs with the Astros. Like the Astros moves; need a lefty in the pen. Another starter would be nice.

 

[Discoverer]

Moving him to the pen for that year was inspired genius.

Keeping him there is stupidity.

Oh man, this is good.

 

[Eyedea]

Last year:

Cain: 645pa, 115wrc+, 4.1fwar, 5.3bwar, 4.7avg/650
Yelich: 695pa, 115wrc+, 4.5fwar, 3.9bwar, 3.9avg/650

Last 2yrs:

Cain: 1079pa, 109wrc+, 6.6fwar, 8.2bwar, 4.5avg/650
Yelich: 1354pa, 123wrc+, 9.0fwar, 9.2bwar, 4.4avg/650

Last 3yrs:

Cain: 1683pa, 116wrc+, 13.1war, 15.4bwar, 5.5avg/650
Yelich: 1879pa, 122wrc+, 11.4fwar, 12.7bwar, 4.2avg/650

Not that I'm an advocate of acquiring Yelich (due to the acquisition cost), but Cain's also turning 32 in April and has had hamstring and knee issues throughout his career.

 

[Kurtz]

DJQ and Discoverer pretty much gave you my thoughts on your question;

But Phillip...no, they didn't, their arguments ran precisely contrary to yours. They made an argument that I've been making for 3 years now. Bullpen pitchers are no more volatile than any other pitcher - they just have a smaller sample size to work with, so some people may perceive them to be more volatile. All pitching is volatile. If you invest in elite relief pitching, you reduce this volatility, just as you would if you invest in elite starting pitching.

You've repeated the "bullpens are volatile" comments multiple times so I just wanted to address that point. If, on the other hand, your point would have been that the pool of available relievers is vastly larger than the pool of passable starters and as such we should be able to find bargains in the pen and spend the bulk of our money on starters, that's an argument I could completely understand.

 

[phillipmike]

Moving him to the pen for that year was inspired genius. - 2015 = AA

Keeping him there is stupidity. - 2016 and 2017 = Shapiro and Atkins

2015: 1.3 WAR (Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison, Norris, and Sanchez - add Price, Estrada and Stroman later)
2016: 1.8 WAR (Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada, Happ and Dickey)
2017: 3,0 WAR (Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada, Happ and Liriano)

Add in the fact Osuna didnt and doesnt want to start.

Makes sense.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

DJQ your boy Oswaldo Arcia signed in Japan.

Hector Rondon signs with the Astros. Like the Astros moves; need a lefty in the pen. Another starter would be nice.

About to be Wladimir Balentien.

Not that I'm an advocate of acquiring Yelich (due to the acquisition cost), but Cain's also turning 32 in April and has had hamstring and knee issues throughout his career.

I encourage everyone to look at the aging curves for Mike Cameron, Shane Victorino, Randy Winn, Johnny Damon, Kenny Lofton, and Torii Hunter. Specifically, what their ISO\wRC+\wOBA\UZR\RngR were from age 28-32, and then what they were from age 33-37.

 

[Garlando]

I see we've moved on from bullpen talk but I think this is important to note. While I agree for the most part that you don't need to spend lavishly on bullpens, I do see value in the elite set-up man along with the closer, and teams around the league are seeing that value too as the $ value of high-leverage arms across the league are rising quick. When looking at win probability added (WPA) across the majors, the leader last year wasn't Corey Kluber or Max Scherzer, but in fact Kenley Jansen, and it wasn't particularly close. Let’s be clear: I’m not saying that Jansen is better than or even close to being as valuable as Scherzer or Kluber. This just illustrates that his contribution to his team’s record was greater than any other pitcher’s. In fact, if you look at the pitching leader boards and sort by WPA, relievers routinely place very highly on the list, including six of the top 10 in 2017.

This is one of many arguments used when people claim that WAR systematically undervalues relief pitchers. To some degree, this is a valid point. Having an elite reliever to pitch in high-leverage situations can be have just as much of an impact on a team’s performance as having a dominant starter. As Jays fans, we've seen this play out many years with Bullpens blowing leads early on in the year before the bullpen gets sorted out. Also something to note, since leverage is largely determined by the manager, it actually has a higher year-to-year correlation than performance metrics like FIP and xFIP, making it both predictable and repeatable.

What I hope this short description shows is that there is major value in high end relievers when pitching in high leverage innings, and therefore I'd be willing to spend $ on bullpen arms who pitch those high leverage innings with regularity. Non-high leverage rolls, are less valuable and that is where you try to bring guys in from the minors hoping to uncover the next bullpen gem. So, bringing it back to the Jays, they are fortunate in that they have a bunch of quality arms in the bullpen who are cost efficient. If they were going to compete, I would absolutely advocate for another high leverage arm to add to Osuna, and Tepera (16th in MLB WPA last year). That would allow Leone to move into a true MR role which both would give the team depth and room for volatility. What I would expect the team to do this year is at least bring another LH reliever in to help ease the burden on Loup.

 

[Cor]

Would be nice if Atkins made one of the moves he’s claimed is ready to go.

I’m impatient

 

[BlueForever75]

Of the seven Jays relievers who threw at least 30 innings last year, four of them (Barnes, Loup, Smith, Leone) were never starters at any level of the minors.

But they were drafted as starters.

Loup out of Tulane as a starter
Barnes was drafted out of Princeton as a starter and was tried as a starter before becoming a reliever.
Leone was drafted as a pitcher and started as a starter. Pitched in the majors initially as a starter before converting to a reliever.

The only one that was turned into a reliever and drafted as one was Smith that you state. And this was because of injury in University.

Osuna is a starter turned reliever.
Tepera is the same thing.

I don't get where you say the pitchers are what you say.

 

[TF97]

I am assuming this is aimed towards Atkins/Sabathia for Atkins’ “leadership” comment regarding Sabathia

 

[BlueForever75]

I am assuming this is aimed towards Atkins/Sabathia for Atkins’ “leadership” comment regarding Sabathia

Stroman needs to shut his mouth if this is indeed the case. He needs to focus on doing what he needs to do to ensure he can provide what ever he can to the Jays for them to succeed instead of barking all the time something stupid as he does. Harness your passion Stroman for when we need it, ON THE MOUND rather then through your tweets. Do what your paid for.

 

[phillipmike]

But Phillip...no, they didn't, their arguments ran precisely contrary to yours. They made an argument that I've been making for 3 years now. Bullpen pitchers are no more volatile than any other pitcher - they just have a smaller sample size to work with, so some people may perceive them to be more volatile. All pitching is volatile. If you invest in elite relief pitching, you reduce this volatility, just as you would if you invest in elite starting pitching.

You've repeated the "bullpens are volatile" comments multiple times so I just wanted to address that point. If, on the other hand, your point would have been that the pool of available relievers is vastly larger than the pool of passable starters and as such we should be able to find bargains in the pen and spend the bulk of our money on starters, that's an argument I could completely understand.

Until there is a huge shift in the sport and starters pitch 50-80 innings and/or relievers pitch 150-200 innings this will always be the nature of the position. Its fine to say in theory if they pitched more innings then it might appear they are less volatile but that is the expectation of the position; to pitch a lesser amount of innings.

There is a criteria and expectation for what a reliever is asked to do - and i dont think it is careless to evaluate a reliever based on what their job is. If you want to change the conversation and evaluate a reliever on what they might do in relations to the expectations to a starting pitcher than that is fine but they arent asked to pitch that much so you have to evaluate them based on what they are asked to do. And when you evaluate a reliever you have to use that sample size that is given to you.

All i am saying is that there is a general idea that based on what a reliever is asked to do (pitch 50-80 innings) leads to the high volatility.
If you want to evaluate a reliever in comparison to a starter or more innings (something they dont/wont do) then you can but i dont see how that is helpful when determining what is the most effective way to finding relievers.

Im not saying what they do is less important - all i am saying is that the nature of the position (a smaller sample size) has high volatility in itself which is why i wouldnt invest highly in my bullpen.

As Zeke says i can agree with the thoughts that you can invest money/assets in the backend of your bullpen and fill the rest out. I agree with that idea however, i still would prefer and think i would find more success not investing highly in terms of money/assets in relief pitching.

 

[dredeye]

I am assuming this is aimed towards Atkins/Sabathia for Atkins’ “leadership” comment regarding Sabathia

No I can’t remember who it was but on the fan 590 they were talking about how Sabathia would be a great mentor for Stroman like Buerhle was. I think he was responding to that

 

[Discoverer]

Would be nice if Atkins made one of the moves he’s claimed is ready to go.

I’m impatient

But they were drafted as starters.

Loup out of Tulane as a starter
Barnes was drafted out of Princeton as a starter and was tried as a starter before becoming a reliever.
Leone was drafted as a pitcher and started as a starter. Pitched in the majors initially as a starter before converting to a reliever.

The only one that was turned into a reliever and drafted as one was Smith that you state. And this was because of injury in University.

Osuna is a starter turned reliever.
Tepera is the same thing.

I don't get where you say the pitchers are what you say.

There's a difference between being a starter in college and being "drafted as a starter".

Loup was drafted with the intention of being a reliever. He made five starts scattered among his 35 second-year appearances and never started a game again.
Barnes made two starts in his second season in the organization and one more a few years later. He wasn't "tried as a starter".
Leone has never made a start at any level for any team.

 

[Cor]

Yeah, Stroman needs to be quiet.

He’ll find himself traded soon enough

 

[phillipmike]

Freddy Galvis to the Padres. I wonder if a SS goes back or if the Phillies roll with Crawford.

Padres have a glut of middle infield options - im sure they make a trade soon. They were a logical target for Cozart too if he wanted to stay at SS.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Millenials gonna millennial.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Freddy Galvis to the Padres. I wonder if a SS goes back or if the Phillies roll with Crawford.

Padres have a glut of middle infield options - im sure they make a trade soon. They were a logical target for Cozart too if he wanted to stay at SS.

Give me the Pirela.

 

[Garlando]

Give me the Pirela.

Can you get them to add Alex Dickerson as a throw in too?

Also, Pirela was the Padres most valuable position player last year in terms of WAR at 2.1 while playing just 83 games.

 

[phillipmike]

Unless they think they can make Galvis more valuable i just dont see why anyone would want 1-1.5 WAR player making roughly 7.4 million dollars in his last year of arb. Outside of his defense i dont see a lot to like especially for 7 million.

 

[Jozay]

Yeah, Stroman needs to be quiet.

He’ll find himself traded soon enough

If they trade stroman because he likes to tweet, then im outtt