News Article: Wings are Luszczyszyn's most improved team

[Ricelund]

The Athletic:

1. Detroit Red Wings​

Wins Added: 6.0 wins

Salary Added: $24.2 million

In: Ville Husso, David Perron, Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalik, Mark Pysyk, Austin Czarnik, Olli Maatta, Matt Luff, Ben Chiarot

Out: Olli Juolevi, Thomas Greiss, Marc Staal

The Detroit Red Wings balled out this summer spending big money in hopes of clawing out of the league’s basement and forging a path toward contention. No team saw a bigger increase in spending and it looks like it should be worth it because no team added more value either. With a 1.9-win gap between first and second, it wasn’t even close either.

The Red Wings didn’t lose much with three players who offered minimal value … if that. In their place, there are nine new notable faces who will inject some life into the lineup. Detroit’s issue has long been its depth and that should be alleviated heavily after a busy offseason

Up front, David Perron and Andrew Copp are legitimate top-six talents that should immediately provide some depth scoring beyond the top line. Detroit has long depended on Dylan Larkin and his linemates to do it all. Now it doesn’t have to. Perron and Copp aren’t stars, but they move the needle and provide strong support. Add Dominik Kubalik to the mix and the top nine looks the scariest it has in a long time.

On defense, the changes aren’t as exciting but there’s hope. Mark Pysyk is an analytics darling that should do just fine on the team’s third pair, while Olli Maatta bounced back well last season. He has top-four potential if he can keep that up. Considering the money they’re giving him, the Red Wings are likely hoping Ben Chiarot is the big top-four piece needed to take this team to a higher level. The model is incredibly skeptical of that, but it’s nice knowing the team added six wins anyway despite Chiarot’s projected value dragging it down. If he can be as good as some suggest he is, that’s another win or so in Detroit’s ledger.

The team’s biggest add though comes in net with Ville Husso. Detroit took a calculated risk last offseason with Alex Nedeljkovic and it’s doing something similar with Husso. It’s another young goalie who got hot and showed starter potential. The duo has tremendous upside, but the small sample risk remains real for both. As long as one of them hits it’s a good bet though, giving Detroit some stability in net for the first time since the last time Jimmy Howard was good. Incidentally, that was the last time the team was any good. It’s been a long time coming, but the Red Wings are back on the rise.

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[OgeeOgelthorpe]

If Detroit only improves by 6 wins next year I would be absolutely shocked. Last year the Wings were a team that should have gotten 79 to 84 points by most models but COMPLETELY crapped the bed in the 2nd half and ended up with 74.

I think anything less than 10 more wins next year is unacceptable.

 

[Ulysses31]

hmm i realized i have drw colored glasses and guessed about 85 point for the 21-22 and overshot by about 10 points. this year they are obviously much better on paper, perhaps 95 points good.

i think a prudent guess is 90 points this year for drw.

 

[dalem177]

If Detroit only improves by 6 wins next year I would be absolutely shocked. Last year the Wings were a team that should have gotten 79 to 84 points by most models but COMPLETELY crapped the bed in the 2nd half and ended up with 74.

I think anything less than 10 more wins next year is unacceptable.

I would think that having special teams alone for a change would give +10 wins, let alone 5 on 5 scoring and goalie protection. How many times were Ned or Greiss hung out to dry last season?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Imagine how many more wins it would be worth if Dom’s model didn’t despise stay at home, physical defenseman. Trying to figure out what the model actually produces for Chiarot, but I believe it’s no better than -0.6 wins in terms of on-ice value.

Considering what he’s replacing, he’s probably worth 2-3 more wins than Dekeyser was worth.

Keep in mind, this is the same guy whose model didn’t think Seider would win the Calder, even though he admitted that Seider would be his vote because of the blind spot it has for certain elements that Seider possesses.

That blind spot would have to be defense you’d imagine.

 

[ThankGord]

Imagine how many more wins it would be worth if Dom’s model didn’t despise stay at home, physical defenseman. Trying to figure out what the model actually produces for Chiarot, but I believe it’s no better than -0.6 wins in terms of on-ice value.

Considering what he’s replacing, he’s probably worth 2-3 more wins than Dekeyser was worth.

Keep in mind, this is the same guy whose model didn’t think Seider would win the Calder, even though he admitted that Seider would be his vote because of the blind spot it has for certain elements that Seider possesses.

That blind spot would have to be defense you’d imagine.

Was going to say the same thing. It's bizarre that his model gives Chiarot negative value when actual decision makers for NHL teams value him highly enough to pay a 1st at the deadline.

Mo plays really well with a stay-at-home defenseman on his pair. He made Gelinas look so good in Rogle that Carolina signed him, he'll elevate Chiarot too.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Was going to say the same thing. It's bizarre that his model gives Chiarot negative value when actual decision makers for NHL teams value him highly enough to pay a 1st at the deadline.

Also bizarre to give him negative value in a direct comparison against last season's defense. I think, based on the number of upgrades signed during free agency, its easy to suggest the Wings will be among the most improved teams, don't really need Dom's charts and formulas to come to that conclusion.

 

[Al48]

Does coaching figure into his model?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Was going to say the same thing. It's bizarre that his model gives Chiarot negative value when actual decision makers for NHL teams value him highly enough to pay a 1st at the deadline.

Mo plays really well with a stay-at-home defenseman on his pair. He made Gelinas look so good in Rogle that Carolina signed him, he'll elevate Chiarot too.

It's because quantifying defensive value is difficult, if not impossible, for purely analytical stats. Same reason why a guy like Luke Glendening has abysmal "analytics" minus his FO%, but he's valued as such a shutdown forward. Most of the analytics err towards shot suppression and overall possession, because if they don't have the puck, they can't score. But if you're Ben Chiarot and you're able to displace screeners from in front of the net enough that your goalie can easily see the puck, but it's still a shot from a HD% area, you're not going to be given much credit, if any at all, from an advanced stat. It's why the eye test is still relevant in addition to the fancy stats.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I would think that having special teams alone for a change would give +10 wins, let alone 5 on 5 scoring and goalie protection. How many times were Ned or Greiss hung out to dry last season?

Team	AvAge	GP	W	L	OL	PTS	PTS%	GF	GA	SRS	SOS	GF/G	GA/G	PP	PPO	PP%	PPA	PPOA	PK%	SH	SHA	S	S%	SA	SV%	PDO	SO
Detroit Red Wings	26.9	82	32	40	10	74	.451	227	310	-0.95	0.06	2.77	3.78	37	227	16.30	59	225	73.78	4	10	2414	9.4	2761	.888	99.4	4
League Average	28.2	82	41	32	9	91	.555	255	255					49	237	20.61	49	237	79.39	7	7	2593	9.8	2593	.902

The Wings PK and PP were dreadful last year. If both improve to at least league average that would give the team a gigantic boost. So would reducing the shots against.

Better coaching and picking up Husso would probably have given Detroit 6 more wins. Everything else should see this team play even better. Boughner and Lalonde's strategies plus Maatta and Chiarot will be big helps on the PK. Perron scored 10ppg last season playing the Ovechkin position and I think is a huge boost to PP1 while Kubalik can help PP2. Also a healthy Vrana should be good for 25+ goals.

I'm predicting closer to 265 GF and between 240 and 260 GA.

hmm i realized i have drw colored glasses and guessed about 85 point for the 21-22 and overshot by about 10 points. this year they are obviously much better on paper, perhaps 95 points good.

i think a prudent guess is 90 points this year for drw.

I guessed 84 before we found out Vrana was injured. And if not for all the blowouts in the 2nd half could still have finished that high. 4 more wins and 2 more OTLs would have resulted in getting slightly above the expected results.

 

[StargateSG1]

Interesting that Larkin's contract even at 6.1 mil is not ranked that well....
This is from Athletics "Contracts Ranking" story, Wings ranked 20th with this:

"Everyone seems to love the Yzerplan and the Red Wings rebuild and the team has done some strong work towards getting to the next step. The David Perron signing this summer was extremely savvy and Dominik Kubalik is a decent bet at his price point too. The Jakub Vrana trade from two seasons prior was strong too and those three mark up Detroit’s best contracts.


But for the most part, there aren’t a lot of great deals on the books and the team hamstrung themselves a bit with two signings in particular this summer: Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot. Copp is a nifty utility player, but the price tag and term are a bit much for what he offers. Chiarot is the bigger issue as he’s being paid to be a solid number three on the depth chart and is probably better suited to a third pair role. This model (and any other) isn’t very fond of what he brings to the table so Detroit gets a big ding for that, maybe bigger than it actually should. Still, those two deals represent Detroit’s longest cap commitments which aren’t ideal.


The Red Wings rank 20th here, but one massive advantage they have is having Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider on ELCs. That’s a huge bonus that no other team possesses. If those two counted, they would drive up the surplus value by a decent amount. Seider is already an $8 million calibre defender while Raymond is close to a $6 million forward."

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Interesting that Larkin's contract even at 6.1 mil is not ranked that well....
This is from Athletics "Contracts Ranking" story, Wings ranked 20th with this:

"Everyone seems to love the Yzerplan and the Red Wings rebuild and the team has done some strong work towards getting to the next step. The David Perron signing this summer was extremely savvy and Dominik Kubalik is a decent bet at his price point too. The Jakub Vrana trade from two seasons prior was strong too and those three mark up Detroit’s best contracts.


But for the most part, there aren’t a lot of great deals on the books and the team hamstrung themselves a bit with two signings in particular this summer: Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot. Copp is a nifty utility player, but the price tag and term are a bit much for what he offers. Chiarot is the bigger issue as he’s being paid to be a solid number three on the depth chart and is probably better suited to a third pair role. This model (and any other) isn’t very fond of what he brings to the table so Detroit gets a big ding for that, maybe bigger than it actually should. Still, those two deals represent Detroit’s longest cap commitments which aren’t ideal.


The Red Wings rank 20th here, but one massive advantage they have is having Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider on ELCs. That’s a huge bonus that no other team possesses. If those two counted, they would drive up the surplus value by a decent amount. Seider is already an $8 million calibre defender while Raymond is close to a $6 million forward."

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There's a handful of writers at the Athletic that are kind of trash. Dom is one, Wheeler is another. Corey Pronman (bleh) has gotten better relative to those two, especially in prospect evaluations, but I think still has some way to go.

Saying Detroit is hamstrung by Copp and Chiarot's contracts is eye roll worthy. Detroit has more cap flexibility in the next 5 years than just about anyone, and those deals are not immovable.

 

[StargateSG1]

There's a handful of writers at the Athletic that are kind of trash. Dom is one, Wheeler is another. Corey Pronman (bleh) has gotten better relative to those two, especially in prospect evaluations, but I think still has some way to go.

Saying Detroit is hamstrung by Copp and Chiarot's contracts is eye roll worthy. Detroit has more cap flexibility in the next 5 years than just about anyone, and those deals are not immovable.

Is this like a theme around here to trash anyone you don't agree with?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Is this like a theme around here to trash anyone you don't agree with?

No. Wheeler is noted for some pretty bad takes, not just about Detroit. And Dom has an over-reliance on fancy stats to the point where many question if he even watches games or just the numbers. Go read about these guys on the mains. It's more than wings fans beating them up.

 

[MBH]

The Athletic:

Wins added 6.0
12 points
So 86 points.
Sounds about right.

If Detroit only improves by 6 wins next year I would be absolutely shocked. Last year the Wings were a team that should have gotten 79 to 84 points by most models but COMPLETELY crapped the bed in the 2nd half and ended up with 74.

I think anything less than 10 more wins next year is unacceptable.

Why the hell are you setting this team up to fail?

 

[Ricelund]

Why the hell are you setting this team up to fail?

War is peace, freedom is slavery, and winning is failing.

 

[Hinterland]

Who?

 

[MBH]

Was going to say the same thing. It's bizarre that his model gives Chiarot negative value when actual decision makers for NHL teams value him highly enough to pay a 1st at the deadline.

Mo plays really well with a stay-at-home defenseman on his pair. He made Gelinas look so good in Rogle that Carolina signed him, he'll elevate Chiarot too.

A player like Chiarot playing over his head and big minutes on a disaster team like Montreal... is always going to have awful analytics.

Chiarot isn't a good passer.
But he skates well with the puck. He skates well in general.
He can play big minutes.
And as Edvinsson steps in, we can start to reduce those minutes.

Some analytics guy doesn't understand that when you're a young team, you need a guy who plays tough minutes.
That's what Chiarot and Maatta can do to some degree,

Maatta, for whatever reason, had really nice analytics last year.
But he is so f***ing slow.
He's smart.
But I hate how slow he is.

One of the reasons I'm not on the "Red Wings in the playoffs bandwagon" like some of the giddy folks in here is because the guys we signed are only solid.
They're not great.

They're solid.

They're legit NHLers. That's it.
But I've got news for you, the NHL is full of teams with solid players.

I haven't seen (some) Wings' fans this over-optimistic since the Alfredsson/Weiss signings.

A 12-point jump would be great progress.
Add another 8-12 points the next year as Seider/Raymond/Edvinsson improve - and now you're on the cusp.

 

[Beneven Stanciano]

Is this like a theme around here to trash anyone you don't agree with?

Unfortunately that's most of the internet and media these days. Very few are willing to even try to absorb any different train of thought or idea, not much conversing about a topic. Instead you'll get copious experts arguing against ones thought process or someone elses credibility to feel better about their position which they are unwilling to budge from while debating some anonymous person they will never even know.

At least the Athletic and other media outlets use their real name so they can be properly crucified.

 

[ricky0034]

If Detroit only improves by 6 wins next year I would be absolutely shocked. Last year the Wings were a team that should have gotten 79 to 84 points by most models but COMPLETELY crapped the bed in the 2nd half and ended up with 74.

I think anything less than 10 more wins next year is unacceptable.

the Wings had the 3rd worst goal differential in the league last year even with above average health and some shooting percentage luck from various players

they overperformed being 8th worst in points

 

[StargateSG1]

the Wings had the 3rd worst goal differential in the league last year even with above average health and some shooting percentage luck from various players

they overperformed being 8th worst in points

21 ROWs in the 82 games season is all there is to know for reasonable people..

 

[Hen Kolland]

Unfortunately that's most of the internet and media these days. Very few are willing to even try to absorb any different train of thought or idea, not much conversing about a topic. Instead you'll get copious experts arguing against ones thought process or someone elses credibility to feel better about their position which they are unwilling to budge from while debating some anonymous person they will never even know.

At least the Athletic and other media outlets use their real name so they can be properly crucified.

This is a really out of touch post considering what this site is intended to be.

If someone was paying me to share my opinion, I'd have no issue tying my name to it. You seem to be implying that because this is a forum created specifically for anonymous discussion of hockey related topics, the people who are participate are chicken shit and afraid of criticism of their opinions.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Is this like a theme around here to trash anyone you don't agree with?

Hahhahahahaha.

Hahahahhaha. You don’t get how funny this is because hypocrisy.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

This is a really out of touch post considering what this site is intended to be.

If someone was paying me to share my opinion, I'd have no issue tying my name to it. You seem to be implying that because this is a forum created specifically for anonymous discussion of hockey related topics, the people who are participate are chicken shit and afraid of criticism of their opinions.

You get paid in 'likes.' Don't start paywalling those posts now.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

21 ROWs in the 82 games season is all there is to know for reasonable people..

And now they have a wholly different second line, a goalie who isn’t 35 years old and breaking down, and while they did have good overall injury luck…

Larkin was hamstrung by an injury, Vrana missed 75% of the season, Bertuzzi missed time due to injury and vaccine choices.

But hey, let’s never let context get in the way of a good bitch fest