Windsor Spitfires 2021 Offseason Thread

[member 71782]

I don't expect any major deals before camp; not because it's how Bowler operates but they really do need to figure out what they have before pulling the trigger. Getting a third this year for something/someone isn't a bad idea. Perhaps a 4th this year and a 3rd down the road would entice someone.

With the uncertainty surrounding this year's draft I suggested previously a 2021 4th, 2021 6th and 2023 3rd for a 2021 3rd and a 2023 4th. You're swapping the 3rds and 4ths in 2 different years and the 6th becomes a small sweetener. Now a 6th isn't much of a sweetener normally, especially if you're only swapping picks a couple of years apart but if you have a team looking to stockpile picks for a potential run the uncertainty around this year's draft makes a 3rd two years out more valuable as trade capital. The 6th and the more certain 2023 3rd becomes the sweetener combined, especially to a potential contender.

In terms of players being dealt I think the league will be looking to get back to normal as much as possible and that starts with this draft. I can see a one week trade window opening up before the draft, as it does in other years where only picks can be dealt. After the draft I can see a window opening, just as it would normally do on June 1st and stay open until the end of June to trade players with not many, if any being dealt. Close down July 1st until August 1st as per usual then trading opens. This starts to get the league's schedule back to normal, even if the season may be delayed a couple of weeks to start. I doubt many players will be traded early, unless they are undrafted, OAs or unsigned and not likely to have any shot at making an NHL team when training camps roll around.

I think there will be a couple of teams that establish themselves early as top contenders based on roster strength and draft capital to trade. Windsor won't be one of them. They will have a solid but middle of the pack team. I think the Savages/Bowler were hoping they could push through a long playoff run this year when the deadline rolled around last year and they sat on their hands hoping a decent 2020/21 would lead to a sale. This year they've lost a couple of big assets to deal in their 2000s, their 01s are decent but nothing special and while their 02s are better than their 01s they have even less draft capital to deal to make additions. This is a middle of the pack team without the resources to make a ton of improvements to their roster. If they do nothing but ride out the season like last year 2021/22 will see them finish in 5th or 6th with draft assets continuing to diminish. They have to get off their hands this year and build towards2022/23 or 2023/24. While they did a lot to mess up the last couple of years this past season really highlights how poorly prepared this team is.

Time to start whittling down the 02s.

The 01s, I don't see much of a market for unless a contender is looking for a depth forward in D'Amico or depth D in Henault. I don't think Ladd carries much value to a contender or even a team looking to make a depth OA addition in the hopes of 2 rounds of playoffs before a run next year. You're likely talking a mid round pick or two for Henault of D'Amico at this point and a late round pick for Ladd.

As for 02s we have Foudy, Cuylle, McDonald, Robinson, Maggio, Renwick and Medina at the moment. Maggio, Renwick and probably Medina are the OAs the following year. Maggio and Renwick were brought in mainly because of their local connections and neither appears headed towards an NHL opportunity. Medina was pushed hard to come here and being from the Detroit area isn't likely getting dealt. Of the 3 Medina would have the greatest value at this point. Foudy and Cuylle will graduate after this season and carry the most value. They won't be back as OAs and if Windsor doesn't have the assets to build a contender this year, they don't then it's time to maximize the value they'll bring. Picks and prospects at the deadline for both and how they are playing up to that point will determine just how much value they return. McDonald and Robinson, if things have been straightened out would be deadline decisions. They both have value but having missed this past season they are complete unknowns at this time. They will need to prove themselves and if they can come close to their potential they'll bring back a solid return with conditional picks for an OA season. They could be very good OAs and a team that is a year away but looking to make some noise this year would have interest as they are potential two year players, both who would be playing for their last chance to be NHL drafted. They obviously won't return what Foudy and Cuylle would but they could still bring back a solid return of a younger roster player/prospects and a decent pick or two.

IMO there's six players Windsor needs to try to move if they want to turn around the fortunes of the franchise as well as increase the value over the next couple of years for a potential sale in two to three years time. Those six could set them up for a run in two seasons, if their youth develops and they are smart about adding and holding picks after this draft.

I know it sounds bleak, it doesn't have to be but when a team won't make a decision to make a run or not and then watches their draft capital dwindle away the franchise simply becomes mediocre. Always good enough to make the playoffs and be a first round exit because they can't and won't add but never bad enough to get a couple of top four picks while acquiring draft capital to build with and make deals when they're ready to actually make a push. Standing pat in a league with a limited time to act will always leave you treading water and that's what this team has become. Acting on a hope and a prayer with no direction, they'll never get beyond the first round of the playoffs. It's been about a decade since they've gotten out of the first round, 2011, time to try something different.

 

[OHLTG]

I know that people are skeptical of Bowler; that's fine. I'm not getting into another "he's not going to do anything, ever" debate. Those are tiresome. I was saying I'd like to see him try for a 3rd this year, build up some of the youth on the roster, and then perhaps make deals once Sept/Oct rolls around and he knows what he's working with. I DO expect something to happen, somehow, but I don't see it happening right away.

 

[windsor7]

I know that people are skeptical of Bowler; that's fine. I'm not getting into another "he's not going to do anything, ever" debate. Those are tiresome. I was saying I'd like to see him try for a 3rd this year, build up some of the youth on the roster, and then perhaps make deals once Sept/Oct rolls around and he knows what he's working with. I DO expect something to happen, somehow, but I don't see it happening right away.

He has done things
Sat on his hands....

 

[ohloutsider]

21/22 was the year most on this board were predicting the Spits make a run. Why is it now important to "trade" that away for a run in the year 3030? Need to see what this team needs to win, not fold and run away. You only have a shot every 3 or 4 years. After this year it will be sell time but not this year. Spits have as much depth as any team in the west this year. They have a decent amount of assets. If nothing else stay the course to the deadline before they decide. Go Spits Go!

 

[windsor7]

21/22 was the year most on this board were predicting the Spits make a run. Why is it now important to "trade" that away for a run in the year 3030? Need to see what this team needs to win, not fold and run away. You only have a shot every 3 or 4 years. After this year it will be sell time but not this year. Spits have as much depth as any team in the west this year. They have a decent amount of assets. If nothing else stay the course to the deadline before they decide. Go Spits Go!

Winning would solve alot issues

 

[OHLTG]

21/22 was the year most on this board were predicting the Spits make a run. Why is it now important to "trade" that away for a run in the year 3030? Need to see what this team needs to win, not fold and run away. You only have a shot every 3 or 4 years. After this year it will be sell time but not this year. Spits have as much depth as any team in the west this year. They have a decent amount of assets. If nothing else stay the course to the deadline before they decide. Go Spits Go!

My biggest concern is how much they lose from last season. Gone - Douglas, Angle, Corcoran, Afanasyev, Playfair, and Rupoli. That's a lot of talent, overall. Personally, I think they could have done damage in 20-21 instead of 21-22. That said, I'm still a "evaluate and proceed" category. If they feel they can contend, I'm all for it.

 

[member 71782]

The intent of my comment wasn't to get into another "Bowler's going to sit on his hands and do diddly squat" conversation. Those are getting tiresome, sorry. I was saying I'd like to see him try for a 3rd this year, build up some of the youth on the roster, and then perhaps make deals once Sept/Oct rolls around and he knows what he's working with. I DO expect something to happen, somehow, but I don't see it happening right away.

I agree with your thoughts on acquiring a third this year, agreed with your thoughts on players not likely being dealt until the season gets going, exception being a few OAs from teams that have an abundance, gave my thoughts on how I think the trade windows will work this year with the league trying to get back to normal. I did give my reasoning as to why Windsor should try to get a third and how it would make sense to play out in a certain way if they were to acquire one.

While Bowler's past actions may be tiresome they go a long ways towards whether or not they should try to acquire a third round pick for this draft.

If he thinks they can contend then he shouldn't. This is a risky draft and picks outside of this draft carry more value than picks within it. If they think they can contend then I wouldn't acquire a third and because of their limited assets and a roster that's a bit below teams that currently look like potential contenders I would also look to move their second and the extra fourth for picks in future drafts with mid/late round picks in this draft as part of the sweetener. If they could get a second and a third in the future with a fifth for this year for their second, if they think they could contend I would make a move like that. A second and a third a couple of years out carry more value to a contender than a second in a tough draft to predict. Add a fifth just to maintain your total picks in this draft. Something similar with one of the extra fourths.

If he doesn't think they can contend and if they are willing to make the moves once the season gets started then the risk of acquiring a third in this year's draft is offset by the assets they acquire later on through trades.

If they aren't looking to do anything or unsure of what they want to do in the upcoming season then ohloutsider is right, don't acquire a third, keep the extra picks they have, 17 in the upcoming draft and make the picks knowing that any picks, particularly after the second round will all be risks. The more shots you have the more chance you have for success. This is where Bowler's past actions are relevant to the conversation. It's not simply to stir up past disagreements on here, it's a question of how he will approach the season, as an active GM or not.

 

[OHLTG]

While Bowler's past actions may be tiresome they go a long ways towards whether or not they should try to acquire a third round pick for this draft.

It's not Bowler's past actions that are tiresome but the constant "yeah, but..." approach to anything involving him on here. Do I think they should contend? No. They'll have the makings of a good young core and the more picks/depth we can get right now, the better. That said, while he's been much quieter than Rychel to this point, I think it's more calculated than disinterest. Once they know what they're working with, closer to camp, you'll see more moves made.

 

[OHLTG]

Johnston and Team Canada win Gold tonight over Russia at U18s.

 

[member 71782]

It's not Bowler's past actions that are tiresome but the constant "yeah, but..." approach to anything involving him on here. Do I think they should contend? No. They'll have the makings of a good young core and the more picks/depth we can get right now, the better. That said, while he's been much quieter than Rychel to this point, I think it's more calculated than disinterest. Once they know what they're working with, closer to camp, you'll see more moves made.

All we have to judge Bowler on is past actions, same as Rychel or any other GM. Do I want to see him make deals just for the sake of making a deal? No, that's not what anyone wants that I can think of. The issue has been he has shown no plan or direction over the last couple of years and it seems to be that most things point to he's doing what he's told and not actually making the decisions which, if the case or more on ownership than Bowler. However he wears the title and takes the heat that goes along with it.

It's hard not to talk about what's going on with the team when what they've done is all you have to judge it on.

It's like when people constantly go back to 3 Memorial Cups in 9 years while ignoring 5 playoff wins in a decade. Both sides get tired of the argument but it's all there is when people want to project what team success could be based on past performance. 3 memorial Cups in 9 years is a huge achievement, no one disagrees with that but 5 playoff wins in a decade or more is an extremely poor record. Which one is more indicative of future performance?

While they may have the makings of a good young core, it's hard to tell after what has transpired. They have a couple of good young pieces, no argument there but the rest are unknowns so you can't project a good team off of two players.

We all thought they were going to have a good to great team b y this time but we have Foudy and Cuylle and the rest, at 19 are question marks. Potential? Definitely but nothing that shows they can be the core of a contender looking to add a piece or two to make a run. When it comes to the vets of this group and beyond the OAs the vets are the 02s and 03s they have four players who can be expected to be key pieces, Foudy, Cuylle, Medina and Johnston. That's it. The rest at this point are depth and role players until they prove otherwise.

I agree adding young prospects and depth is the way to go at this point, my concern is actually doing it which so far hasn't been the case. Spending future assets on risky picks this year is adding prospects for the future but eliminating the assets needed to support them if they do become competitive in a year or two.

Savages and Bowler say they want to build a team that is consistently competitive yet so far they're consistently a 6th place team that doesn't have a lot of assets to compete with. This is a team without the tools to build for the direction they say they want to go.

 

[member 71782]

21/22 was the year most on this board were predicting the Spits make a run. Why is it now important to "trade" that away for a run in the year 3030? Need to see what this team needs to win, not fold and run away. You only have a shot every 3 or 4 years. After this year it will be sell time but not this year. Spits have as much depth as any team in the west this year. They have a decent amount of assets. If nothing else stay the course to the deadline before they decide. Go Spits Go!

They have Cuylle, Foudy, Johnston and hopefully Medina. They have decent assets to make a pick every round going forward but very few assets to compete with teams with better rosters. Those four players are not enough to contend with and at the moment the rest are depth/role players.

They have middle of the pack and lower quality OAs.

They have middle of the pack and lower quality 02s and 03s.

Their D has middle and bottom pairing Dmen, no Dmen that would be top pairing Dmen on almost any team in the league.

They have 3 true top 6 forwards that could play a top 6 role on almost any team in the league, the rest would be 3rd or 4th liners on most teams based on past performance compared to their peers.

20/21 was predicted as a run year if they had all of Afanasyev, Angle, Douglas and Corcoran back. At least two of those four weren't going to be back, Corcoran and Afanasyev. A lot of those predicting 21/22 were basing it on them moving at least Afanasyev and Corcoran at the deadline to add assets and players, likely two solid 02s that could play in the middle 6 and probably 3x 2nds and 2x 3rds minimum then moving Angle and Douglas at the deadline in 20/21. None of that happened which means they didn't add depth and they didn't add picks. They also went and moved more 2nds/3rds in the summer of 2020 to add Renwick. Why isn't 21/22 still a go for it year? Didn't add players and picks while moving out picks to add an unknown quantity of a Dman who has family with history to the organization. The difference between picks? 6/7 2nds and 3/4 3rds plus a couple of decent 02s on the roster. If they made those moves in 2019/20, even after losing the 2020/21 season and didn't spend on Renwick who may or may not pan out they would still have likely been able to contend. Without them they are worse off than when they started the 2019/20 season.

There's more and more teams that are becoming competitive for multiple years. They are getting more playoff rounds on a more consistent basis while Windsor has 5 playoff wins since 2011. They are also rebuilding/retooling in less time and have about one down year out of every four. Do they all win championships every year? Of course not but they are all serious contenders three out of every four years instead of once every four or five years. They constantly have solid rosters, a consistent stockpile of draft picks, no need to spend big every time they want to push for a run and consistently are getting prospects to report. Windsor? Still stuck in the same four or five year cycle train of thought. Most of them took one year, not all where they sold big, held assets and built for a couple of years by making picks in the draft to build their own prospect pool, are getting bigger name players to report and always have prospects ready to step in or move for assets so they don't need to sell big every year. When was the last time Windsor put all of that together? 2006/07 and 2007/08 which led to Memorial Cups in 2009, 2010 and a conference final in 2011. Had Rychel not gotten carried away when he had his son it could have continued with regular playoff appearances with wins and getting out of the first round. He lost sight of the bigger goal and it cost this team for the last decade with only 2017 to show for any of it and that was done the hard way. When this team gets back to that 2006/07 mindset of moving everything of value for one season and gets players and picks back, shows restraint when they have an early one time shot like they did in 2007/08 we could have a team that can go on multi year runs without having to move everything after one successful season and get into a truly competitive every year situation. A team that make the playoffs four out of every five years, get pout of the first round at least fifty per cent of the time and be serious contenders two of those years without having to empty the cupboards, that's when most will stop talking about selling hard every year because they don't have the roster at the strat of the season or they have a decent roster but lack the assets to support it in a one time run.

Niagara just went on a run, finished last the next year and this year has about as many assets as Windsor, if not a couple more as well as a better overall roster. Windsor has the the better two 02s while Niagara has the overall better 02s and 03s group. Barrie is basically in the same boat as Niagara but with a better roster. than Windsor and more assets to add with. While these two are competitive every year they seem to bottom out one year, fight for home ice the next year and are contenders the third year, much more often than Windsor has been the last decade.

6th place or lower every year is getting tiring, especially when they never have the assets to support a decent roster when a season starts and they eventually get passed by com the deadline.

 

[OHLTG]

All we have to judge Bowler on is past actions, same as Rychel or any other GM. Do I want to see him make deals just for the sake of making a deal? No, that's not what anyone wants that I can think of. The issue has been he has shown no plan or direction over the last couple of years and it seems to be that most things point to he's doing what he's told and not actually making the decisions which, if the case or more on ownership than Bowler. However he wears the title and takes the heat that goes along with it.

Yes and no. Bowler and WR are two very different personalities and we're so used to darn near everything being out in the open that we're cautious when someone goes quiet. I took Bowler's first year to be far more "we like our team, why mess with it?" than anything else, which is fine. That said, once the pandemic is over, he definitely has to make a mark on the team. It won't be right away but, once the season starts, something has to give.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Very well put. To begin nice to see the Spits have a top 4 pick albeit in a year where there has been very little hockey. Hopefully they put it to good use and their early 2nd rounder will play as well. No reason for any of their other picks to play a lot in the OHL unless there was a complete sell off and they need bodies.

We can have an opinion on Bowler on a small body of work that's all we can go by. If there is criticism towards Bowler it likely pales in comparison to that of ownership who have been part of this organization infinitely longer than Bowler. Yes my lack of faith towards Bowler probably has more to do with my opinion of ownership. If I don't believe in ownership why would I believe in management and coaching staff??

I just don't see a path to where this team would be a contender for 21/22. With current roster there are reasons to like Foudy/Cuylle/Johnston/D'Amico whats up front after that?? The D has some returnees but Ladd has consistently been injured. Their best D is Henault?? I like him but he can't log big minutes and isn't the best in his own zone.

Part of having a contender is also being able to develop younger players and leverage them in trades for top players of other teams. Especially now with limitations on how far into the future you can trade picks.

If you could put forth a scenario where the team is some sort of contender I am all ears. Unfortunately there were signs early on in 19-20 and the same GM we have now decided not to do anything. I can't forsee a situation where they are in a better situation this year than they were in 19-20 when they did nothing.

 

[windsor7]

Yes and no. Bowler and WR are two very different personalities and we're so used to darn near everything being out in the open that we're cautious when someone goes quiet. I took Bowler's first year to be far more "we like our team, why mess with it?" than anything else, which is fine. That said, once the pandemic is over, he definitely has to make a mark on the team. It won't be right away but, once the season starts, something has to give.

He sat on his hands.....
Just a yes man.
Pick a direction

 

[ohloutsider]

They have Cuylle, Foudy, Johnston and hopefully Medina. They have decent assets to make a pick every round going forward but very few assets to compete with teams with better rosters. Those four players are not enough to contend with and at the moment the rest are depth/role players.

They have middle of the pack and lower quality OAs.

They have middle of the pack and lower quality 02s and 03s.

Their D has middle and bottom pairing Dmen, no Dmen that would be top pairing Dmen on almost any team in the league.

They have 3 true top 6 forwards that could play a top 6 role on almost any team in the league, the rest would be 3rd or 4th liners on most teams based on past performance compared to their peers.

20/21 was predicted as a run year if they had all of Afanasyev, Angle, Douglas and Corcoran back. At least two of those four weren't going to be back, Corcoran and Afanasyev. A lot of those predicting 21/22 were basing it on them moving at least Afanasyev and Corcoran at the deadline to add assets and players, likely two solid 02s that could play in the middle 6 and probably 3x 2nds and 2x 3rds minimum then moving Angle and Douglas at the deadline in 20/21. None of that happened which means they didn't add depth and they didn't add picks. They also went and moved more 2nds/3rds in the summer of 2020 to add Renwick. Why isn't 21/22 still a go for it year? Didn't add players and picks while moving out picks to add an unknown quantity of a Dman who has family with history to the organization. The difference between picks? 6/7 2nds and 3/4 3rds plus a couple of decent 02s on the roster. If they made those moves in 2019/20, even after losing the 2020/21 season and didn't spend on Renwick who may or may not pan out they would still have likely been able to contend. Without them they are worse off than when they started the 2019/20 season.

There's more and more teams that are becoming competitive for multiple years. They are getting more playoff rounds on a more consistent basis while Windsor has 5 playoff wins since 2011. They are also rebuilding/retooling in less time and have about one down year out of every four. Do they all win championships every year? Of course not but they are all serious contenders three out of every four years instead of once every four or five years. They constantly have solid rosters, a consistent stockpile of draft picks, no need to spend big every time they want to push for a run and consistently are getting prospects to report. Windsor? Still stuck in the same four or five year cycle train of thought. Most of them took one year, not all where they sold big, held assets and built for a couple of years by making picks in the draft to build their own prospect pool, are getting bigger name players to report and always have prospects ready to step in or move for assets so they don't need to sell big every year. When was the last time Windsor put all of that together? 2006/07 and 2007/08 which led to Memorial Cups in 2009, 2010 and a conference final in 2011. Had Rychel not gotten carried away when he had his son it could have continued with regular playoff appearances with wins and getting out of the first round. He lost sight of the bigger goal and it cost this team for the last decade with only 2017 to show for any of it and that was done the hard way. When this team gets back to that 2006/07 mindset of moving everything of value for one season and gets players and picks back, shows restraint when they have an early one time shot like they did in 2007/08 we could have a team that can go on multi year runs without having to move everything after one successful season and get into a truly competitive every year situation. A team that make the playoffs four out of every five years, get pout of the first round at least fifty per cent of the time and be serious contenders two of those years without having to empty the cupboards, that's when most will stop talking about selling hard every year because they don't have the roster at the strat of the season or they have a decent roster but lack the assets to support it in a one time run.

Niagara just went on a run, finished last the next year and this year has about as many assets as Windsor, if not a couple more as well as a better overall roster. Windsor has the the better two 02s while Niagara has the overall better 02s and 03s group. Barrie is basically in the same boat as Niagara but with a better roster. than Windsor and more assets to add with. While these two are competitive every year they seem to bottom out one year, fight for home ice the next year and are contenders the third year, much more often than Windsor has been the last decade.

6th place or lower every year is getting tiring, especially when they never have the assets to support a decent roster when a season starts and they eventually get passed by com the deadline.

Good thoughts and I don't disagree with all of it.
What I'm suggesting is you need to take a look around the league. Who is the team that will be better than the Spits? Go east and Barrie for sure but who in the west? Soo will be rebuilding along with Saginaw. London is just London so they will be in it. Erie looks close to Windsor. Kitchener will be rebuilding along with Flint. Guelph is a year or 2 away. Not sure where Owen Sound will fall. The only team that will be interesting and may be strong is Sarnia. So why not be the best team in a down year? If they fold this year the Spits will be 3 or 4 years away again. You can add another 3 or 4 years to no playoff wins. There is no reason at this point for this management group to not go for it - I mean they want to sell so folding should not be in the cards.

And the best reason of all - I'm too old to wait around 3 or 4 years to see a winner.

 

[punch1943]

He sat on his hands.....
Just a yes man.
Pick a direction

Easy to call him a yes man but consider the position he's in. He's working for an ownership group who would dearly like to get out of the business. What he'd like to do and what they want him to do may be worlds apart. There will be no firesale here. Don't think there will be wholesale changes/trades unless they are forced into it. Getting the fourth pick is a Godsend to them, it boosts their value.
Hopefully this medical mess will be over soon. When it is, we need the fan base to return if we want a team here.

 

[Teflon]

Trying again lol. I say this year is pivotal, you should get a stud and a very good player off the top. Me, I trade whatever picks I need to to get a high 3rd rnd pick. Picks after that rarely pan out and good players could fall thru cracks to that point. This could either set the team up for now and the future or cripple them for years. Not sure where the info comes from tho, with no scouting staff... hopeful but not confident.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Easy to call him a yes man but consider the position he's in. He's working for an ownership group who would dearly like to get out of the business. What he'd like to do and what they want him to do may be worlds apart. There will be no firesale here. Don't think there will be wholesale changes/trades unless they are forced into it. Getting the fourth pick is a Godsend to them, it boosts their value.
Hopefully this medical mess will be over soon. When it is, we need the fan base to return if we want a team here.

I think the "if we want a team here" is pretty fatalistic. Isn't the lease for WFCU Centre for 25 years?? If we are to believe this ownership is cheap/pinching pennies (insert metaphor) they aren't about to get out of a 13-14 years remaining on a lease.

 

[Teflon]

They won’t walk away that’s for sure. But imho Bowler makes himself look like a stooge by agreeing to follow any and all orders from the owners! If he believes he can do the job, he should do the job not be a damn puppet. Had a lot of respect for him, not so much anymore. It’ll take min 3 years for teams and potential owners to see where the values are. And on top of everything else we don’t know the status of the coaching staff or who might replace them!!

 

[OHLTG]

Picks after that rarely pan out and good players could fall thru cracks to that point.

Does this mean 4th round and beyond "rarely pan out", or am I reading this wrong?

 

[member 71782]

Good thoughts and I don't disagree with all of it.
What I'm suggesting is you need to take a look around the league. Who is the team that will be better than the Spits? Go east and Barrie for sure but who in the west? Soo will be rebuilding along with Saginaw. London is just London so they will be in it. Erie looks close to Windsor. Kitchener will be rebuilding along with Flint. Guelph is a year or 2 away. Not sure where Owen Sound will fall. The only team that will be interesting and may be strong is Sarnia. So why not be the best team in a down year? If they fold this year the Spits will be 3 or 4 years away again. You can add another 3 or 4 years to no playoff wins. There is no reason at this point for this management group to not go for it - I mean they want to sell so folding should not be in the cards.

And the best reason of all - I'm too old to wait around 3 or 4 years to see a winner.

If the past seasons had went as many suggested they would have been set up for three or four years. They didn't, it's too late now but while they aren't contenders IMO they're not far of if they were to take action now. I don't think we would be waiting three to four years to see another contender. They could contend in two years if they acted now/this season.

As you've said, their draft picks are decent and I agree they are for a team looking to make a pick in every round for the next five drafts. With that base of picks moving out any 02s that have good to very good value would double their picks and bring back decent to good 04s. If they could get anymore 03s and/or 04s that show promise to report along with some luck in the upcoming draft they could be a solid team next year with assets to back themselves up while not having to go into full tank mode.

Cuylle and Foudy would return a couple of 2nds and a decent 04 each, especially they get off to a good start and show they are what people thought they would be. Both have done relatively well in the AHL, they've grown their games and shown they can handle that type of pace. They should also be able to carry that back and take on leadership roles.

McDonald and Robinson could each bring back a couple of 3rds or so, maybe more, maybe a bit less depending on how their season's start. McDonald in particular has been bounced around this line up the last two years. Every time he showed promise it was right back to the fourth line.

I believe the OAs are already set for next year. They'll start with Medina in goal, Renwick on D and Maggio up front. A fair amount of high end assets went for them and right Maggio is a 4th line player on most teams, 3rd line on this team while Renwick is an unknown. 02s are our OAs next year and with the connections they aren't getting traded and even if they did the return would be pretty low barring some amazing seasons from them this year. That leaves McDonald and Robinson as the odd men out next year. They haven't been too happy under Letowski according to speculation around here so if that hasn't been fixed and Letowski returns that likely makes for a tough start to the season with roster already if things are still simmering.

If there was a chance to get a solid return for D'Amico Henault, not some mid/late round pick I would move them and backfill with a couple of cheaper options. If the value isn't there then keep them.

As for teams in the West in comparison to Windsor?

Erie is a couple of steps behind Windsor. Looking at their roster from last season they only have a couple of 02s/03s with any type of experience. On top of that they have a few 2nds between now and 2025 and not much else in the 3rd/4th rounds. They didn't sell as much as they should of and like Windsor they've been going through the motions the last couple of seasons. Both teams peaked in 2017 and both teams are behind where they should be in a rebuild. Windsor is further along.

Flint was building for 2020/21 and because of what went on they've missed their window. 2019/20 they tried to take an early, blew by Windsor along with many others but they were gearing up more for the season that never happened. Their roster will be somewhat depleted and inexperienced but in terms of picks they're right there with Windsor with Windsor having an extra 2nd I believe and Flint having more 3rds/4ths when combined. Windsor is likely ahead of Flint but depending on the OAs that they return Flint has a chance to make up some assets that would keep them going forward right in line with Windsor if Windsor stands pat again.

Guelph just went on a Memorial Cup run a couple of seasons ago and as I mentioned a number of times last year, the moves they made early put them right back into a similar position as Windsor last year. They have pretty much the same assets, a more experienced and deeper 02/03 group and are further along in development than Windsor. Are they a top tier contender? Not right now and if they wanted to move everything they have they could be closer than Windsor. The unfortunate thing for Guelph was that there were players at the deadline that blocked trades otherwise they would be much, much further ahead of Windsor right now instead of just three or four steps ahead. They have fewer holes than Windsor with similar assets and a slightly better roster.

Kitchener is in a tough spot. They have no 2nd round picks for the next three years, they went all in for 2019/20 and but came up short of assets to really go over the top. Most players they were likely counting on to recoup draft picks through trades in 2020/21 will be graduating with a couple hanging around for an OA year. They'll be going full rebuild but if they can get a few of their high end prospects to report that'll be here for another year or two, get enough back to recoup those 2nds they'll be in a better position than Windsor next year if Windsor stands pat this year. A lot of ifs but this year Windsor currently is further ahead than they are. Kitchener has had much better luck/results getting higher end kids to report than Windsor so while they won't be contending this year they'll be in the playoffs.

London, everyone's measuring stick. Windsor has a couple more draft picks, not many but London has the overall much better depth and size of their 02/03 draft classes with a number of 03 prospects waiting in the wings. Windsor has the pick advantage but one solid deal gives London the advantage. London far and away away the better roster starting with Brochu who will likely be one of the top goaltenders in the league. They have prospects and players that will bring in very good returns as well as others that will make an impact on their season. It's not even close.

Owen Sound is similar to Erie at the moment in terms of roster. They had an older roster that was probably built more for 2020/21 with a small group of 02s/03s. Their draft picks are close to Windsor with Windsor having a couple more 2nds/3rds/4ths combined, but not many. Advantage Windsor here. Owen Sound is probably two years away.

Saginaw is similar to Erie except they were going on a two year run, 2018/19 and 2019/20 with 2020/21 being their time to sell. They have a small 02/03 group that has any experience although if Lennox is on his game they'll have a solid asset there come the deadline. Their picks are thin and it'll be tough for them to do much. Advantage Windsor.

Sarnia is a step below Windsor in terms of roster and draft picks. Depending on they get back in OAs that could even things out a bit in both roster and picks. They don't have a lot of 02/03 depth on the back end and up front they are a bit thin but their 03 class is probably a bit ahead of Windsor while Johnston is probably the best of both teams for the 03s. They should be battling it out with Windsor much of the season but I would give Windsor a slight advantage.

SSM is like Sarnia except they are more on par with Windsor. Windsor has an extra pick or two maybe and a couple of more 02s on their roster but the quality of the 02s, outside of Foudy and Cuylle is probably advantage SSM. Like Sarnia it'll depend on their OA situation. They built for 2020/21 and while it shows looking at their 2019/20 roster they've also shown an ability to grow and pull from an every deepening prospect pool and have become consistently better at maintaining a competitive team from year to year. High end 02s, advantage Windsor, draft picks are a small advantage Windsor while their depth 02/03 players and potential OAs goes to SSM. I would rate them about even with any advantage going to whoever makes the moves to improve or not sell. SSM has not really sold off in about 6 or 7 years and if there had been a season this past season the expectation would have been to sell. Here's the thing, without selling they and Windsor are pretty even, if they sell even a couple of pieces they'll likely be ahead of Windsor by quite a stretch next year if Windsor were to stand pat.

So London and Guelph are ahead of Windsor, Sarnia and SSM are basically right there with Flint now too far behind depending on their luck with returning players. The remainder are a step or more behind Windsor at this point. Today I would rank them for playoffs, based on Letowski returning and Windsor doing nothing and the other teams having just a bit of luck with returning players.
1 London
2 SSM
3 Guelph
4 Sarnia
5 Windsor
6 Flint
7 Kitchener
8 Erie
9 Saginaw
10 Owen Sound

It's way too early to make any real predictions but simply basing it on who's returning from their 2019/20 rosters, draft capital available to deal, players available to be traded, teams ability to attract prospects, teams willingness to make deals and recent history and consistency of how the team has been run. The past is not always indicative of the future but more often than not when you have people who have been involved for any length of time ti can be telling of what to expect.

Windsor in 5th, I was guessing 6th before I took a closer look seems about right based on what I laid out. Can they take their division? Yes with some moves but London and Guelph are tops in the conference IMO. Even adding when Guelph is a better team and capable of matching Windsor on moves Windsor likely doesn't get beyond the 2nd round.

For Windsor to take the division SSM and Sarnia have to be looking to sell at least a couple of pieces or have no luck in returning OAs. Windsor needs to improve on Ladd as an OA D, Henault as well and have Robinson be here and take a big step all around and Sobolev be what most are hoping for. So one, preferably two top 2/4 D. Windsor also needs to hit on a top tier import up front along with McDonald showing he can be a top 6 forward and if Letowski is back, McDonald gets consistent playing time. They also need a 2nd line LW so D'Amico can play 3rd line LW with Zito and Maggio. Finally Medina needs to be a top 8 to 10 goaltender that can be consistent every night and Downey has to be ready to go at this level for 20 games or they need an experienced back up.

All of that, Guelph doesn't make too many moves and London, well they'll have to deal with London and yes this team can compete for the conference. It'll wipe out their draft capital and we'll be headed for another 3 to 4 years of scraping by to hopefully make the playoffs with only Johnston, McDonald and Robinson as moveable assets unless Medina would accept a deal in his OA year. I don't think even with those moves Windsor gets out of the conference and if they do I think whoever comes out of the East will be the best team in the league even before the playoffs or the trade deadline.

Even if Windsor were to sell I think they still finish 6th, maybe 7th if they have a rough patch but they'll have enough picks to go on a two year run if they have the p[layers to make that run with with next year being a year they tweak the roster a bit to finalize the core for the following year. They would get more value from McDonald and Robinson in deals this year than next unless those two have outstanding years.

Yes a run is possible and within the conference for two rounds of playoffs even realistic but does the cost of likely two rounds of playoffs outweigh the future benefit of selling for a multi year run in two years with next year being a very good year as well?

 

[member 71782]

They won’t walk away that’s for sure. But imho Bowler makes himself look like a stooge by agreeing to follow any and all orders from the owners! If he believes he can do the job, he should do the job not be a damn puppet. Had a lot of respect for him, not so much anymore. It’ll take min 3 years for teams and potential owners to see where the values are. And on top of everything else we don’t know the status of the coaching staff or who might replace them!!

I think the biggest problem for Bowler and not being able to demand control of the role is what other options does he have? I would imagine he's pretty comfortable in the area, he's always been involved with hockey but his lack of experience isn't going to garner much attention from any other team who has an opening, especially after his performance here thus far. A safe cheque versus taking a chance on an uncertain future.

 

[member 71782]

Does this mean 4th round and beyond "rarely pan out", or am I reading this wrong?

I think what he's saying is the further you go through the rounds the less likely you are to see kids with a chance to make it. The first three rounds should all be kids who have more than a reasonable chance to make the league and have a successful career at this level. There will always be kids in the 4th round and beyond who make it and the higher the round the better the odds but once you get to the 4th, if it's not a flyer but your average 4th round pick the odds of the player making it as an impact player drops dramatically. There's always FAs who make it and end up playing a significant role, not many but a few and even those who are never drafted can be impact players but most FAs aren't.

The Spits haven't haven't signed a a kid outside the 3rd round for a couple of years now and the they are likely to continue along with that trend.

 

[OHLTG]

The Spitfires signed Jodoin (4th round) in 2019 and have had several players post-third round sign over the last handful of years - D'Amico, Henault, Angle, Playfair, Boka, Luchuk, Carter, etc. In 2018, they signed four guys from the draft (1, 2, 3, 3), 2019 was three more (incl. Jodoin), and 2020 was another three. Getting players in the mid rounds (4-7) hasn't been a weak point for the club.

 

[windsor7]

The Spitfires signed Jodoin (4th round) in 2019 and have had several players post-third round sign over the last handful of years - D'Amico, Henault, Angle, Playfair, Boka, Luchuk, Carter, etc. In 2018, they signed four guys from the draft (1, 2, 3, 3), 2019 was three more (incl. Jodoin), and 2020 was another three. Getting players in the mid rounds (4-7) hasn't been a weak point for the club.

Yet the club has really done nothing post season in close to a decade other than win a bid to play in may....