Windsor Spitfires 2019-20 Season Thread (Part 7)

[member 71782]

Not just about hockey on this topic but I would suspect the Governments around the world will be offering stimulus financial packages to private business in general. The financial cost of this is going to be unreal in the end and it’s a long way from being “under control”. We’re going to have to be careful this doesn’t trigger an all out global Depression never mind a Recession! Like you not fear mongering but it’s somewhat unchartered waters we are in.

There's a simple solution to the economics of all this, freeze them.

Freeze all accounts so all financial transactions are suspended. All current obligations are frozen in place to be resumed at a specified time when things can be brought back to normal. When people have no immediate financial concerns they can take the time off from unnecessary jobs to minimize exposure.

Use whatever type of war powers acts are available to move needed goods and services at cost. The government foots the bill and all transactions are tracked and submitted to ensure suppliers don't lose money or profit off the situation. This opens access to meet peoples needs while eliminating the perceived need to hoard supplies. Everyone's basic needs are met while reducing the ability for black market profiteering as financial transactions across society have been suspended. No one goes into further debt trying to simply survive.

Create a financial savings stream for people for the next six months so that when economic activity can resume society has the means to resume it. Extend as needed, six months would be a minimum starting point and it should continue for three months after all quarantining has been lifted. Combined with suspension of all current financial transactions all businesses should remain viable as well as all jobs be there when normal economic activity resumes. There would be no need to provide cumbersome loans to keep businesses currently shutdown afloat when they still have no way to finance those loans.

Anyone still working would collect there regular salaries, unable to spend them for now and other positions could be created to meet the needs of those at risk of leaving their homes, people to deliver supplies/food etc.

When normal economic activity resumes there will be a huge pent up demand for goods and services and suspension of financial transactions combined with a monthly payment to each citizen allows for business to resume and people having the financial ability to support a resumption of economic activity. Two months after economic activity resumes all debt obligations resume. Three months after economic activity resumes government payments cease. All fixed price costs related to keeping societies needs met would be made throughout the crisis.

To recover the funds a 2% increase to the HST would be implemented until all accrued debts are resolved.

 

[windsor7]

There's a simple solution to the economics of all this, freeze them.

Freeze all accounts so all financial transactions are suspended. All current obligations are frozen in place to be resumed at a specified time when things can be brought back to normal. When people have no immediate financial concerns they can take the time off from unnecessary jobs to minimize exposure.

Use whatever type of war powers acts are available to move needed goods and services at cost. The government foots the bill and all transactions are tracked and submitted to ensure suppliers don't lose money or profit off the situation. This opens access to meet peoples needs while eliminating the perceived need to hoard supplies. Everyone's basic needs are met while reducing the ability for black market profiteering as financial transactions across society have been suspended. No one goes into further debt trying to simply survive.

Create a financial savings stream for people for the next six months so that when economic activity can resume society has the means to resume it. Extend as needed, six months would be a minimum starting point and it should continue for three months after all quarantining has been lifted. Combined with suspension of all current financial transactions all businesses should remain viable as well as all jobs be there when normal economic activity resumes. There would be no need to provide cumbersome loans to keep businesses currently shutdown afloat when they still have no way to finance those loans.

Anyone still working would collect there regular salaries, unable to spend them for now and other positions could be created to meet the needs of those at risk of leaving their homes, people to deliver supplies/food etc.

When normal economic activity resumes there will be a huge pent up demand for goods and services and suspension of financial transactions combined with a monthly payment to each citizen allows for business to resume and people having the financial ability to support a resumption of economic activity. Two months after economic activity resumes all debt obligations resume. Three months after economic activity resumes government payments cease. All fixed price costs related to keeping societies needs met would be made throughout the crisis.

To recover the funds a 2% increase to the HST would be implemented until all accrued debts are resolved.

Very interesting.
The government doesnt have such a open mind though so far.
Maybe it will change.
Government loves getting paid though.

 

[OHLTG]

The Gov't has done very well in terms of helping small businesses and people. They've done more than I anticipated and it's appreciated on this end.

 

[member 71782]

Very interesting.
The government doesnt have such a open mind though so far.
Maybe it will change.
Government loves getting paid though.

Why are things getting out of control in Europe and many Western nations?

The focus has been on maintaining the economy.

The most successful nations to deal with this so far have all shut down everything as soon as possible, test and quarantine as many people as possible/needed putting the focus on the health issues and not the economic issues.

In other words, screw the neo liberal economic policy behind most of the worlds problems that started with Reagan and put people first.

Unfortunately Canada is just as guilty as any other nation when it comes to this.

 

[member 71782]

The Gov't has done very well in terms of helping small businesses and people. They've done more than I anticipated and it's appreciated on this end.

What have they done to help anyone in any significant way?

Everything they've done has prioritized neo liberal economics over treating the pandemic.

What help are they providing for small businesses? Loans? What good are loans to small businesses when everyone is told to stay away from businesses? All that does is benefit large corporate/financial interests while putting more people in financial despair as their debt piles up. Government guarantees backing so banks will loan money to businesses that can't pay. Banks get the money and collateral when small business defaults. See 2008 to see how it works.

Giving money to people is great except they will be spending it to maintain their debt and buying basics which means large financial interests keep getting paid and large manufacturing keeps getting paid in a few cases. Corporations maintain their profits at the expense of taxpayers. See 2008 again.

Government is doing nothing that isn't supported and approved by corporate interests and their concern? How to make a profit from the suffering.

 

[OHLTG]

What have they done to help anyone in any significant way?

Deferring student loans, an influx of individual government grants in the next couple of weeks, money for small businesses to keep them afloat, etc. That's just the tip. Some may not like it, but for those of us who need this help, it's huge and I stand by that. Normally, I'm pretty critical of the Gov't but they've managed to keep me calm over the last few days.

 

[member 71782]

Deferring student loans, an influx of individual government grants in the next couple of weeks, money for small businesses to keep them afloat, etc. That's just the tip. Some may not like it, but for those of us who need this help, it's huge and I stand by that. Normally, I'm pretty critical of the Gov't but they've managed to keep me calm over the last few days.

Student loans is great.

What are loans to small businesses going to do unless those businesses can benefit from the situation or things are under control in the next two weeks and everyone is prepared to spend big with money they don't have? Loans have to be paid back. That takes revenue that will take months to come back after things get back to normal. How's a small business going to generate that revenue when much of the economy has dried up? With a huge recession/depression coming from this those loans will almost all be defaulted on so who benefits when those businesses go bankrupt?

Look at 2008.

Banks were bailed out.

People got nothing, went bankrupt and banks got those properties and/or proceeds from small businesses that went bankrupt.

Big banks/financials got bailouts, free cash while everyone else lost so the banks collected again.

Do you see how that works?

There's even more to it when stock buybacks and bonuses were paid out to those at the top as well.

So, again what good is a lone to a business that isn't operating, has no revenue stream and will need six months to get back on their feet after this is done except to keep them paying their bills and nothing else.

It's called profiteering and it is what neo liberal economics is all about.

 

[OHLTG]

The money to small businesses aren't loans that I'm aware of, but a subsidy. You'll never have something that everyone likes; that's reality. Will I take this right now? Absolutely.

 

[Cherrydon]

Which facts are you speaking of? Everything in your post is your opinion... which is not wrong to have an opinion, just don't pass it off as facts.

Why can't there still be a draft? Everything is done on line. Teams can still practice social distancing. If you don't have a draft, and hockey resumes, you won't have the players to replenish the roster

Are anyone on serious? My comments were quoted from U.S. and Canadian health officials that stated to expect waves of this and it will last a few months to as many as maybe 18 months. Any fool can see if one country stops it cold and reopens borders/gets soft on social distancing, well it comes right back. Until all countries contain/ create a vaccine this will go on and on. Wait till the thousands to a few million reported overseas Canadians come home. It's only been 8 days since our 1st cancelled Spits game. 627 died in Italy just yesterday!!
As far as the priority draft, we're talking cancelling schools till next year and we're supposed to be worried about drafting kids that may or may not want to play/sign with your team? Worse yet, still alive? No interviews? That truly makes no sense to me. Wake up, hockey is not on the radar for the government right now.
500000 applied for unemployment just this week and you think the government is gonna bail out the rich for the sake of the OHL? Get real. Any of the affected millions last priority will be looking to buy entertainment/ OHL tix while they try to keep a roof over their families and feed them. My pension alone took a whooping. Lost over 30% in one week.
Hockey realistically at any level will probably never be the same as before. Trust me I truly hope we all get through this without losing family and friends. I wish nothing more than NORMAL life to be able to resume including hockey. Those that need this draft to pacify their hockey love and cope for what is coming, I understand. No league at any level has faced the current dilemma. My wish to all of you is to be safe and stay healthy, follow the restrictions and warnings. The sooner everyone gets on board with that, the sooner we will kick this horrible disaster.

 

[member 71782]

The money to small businesses aren't loans that I'm aware of, but a subsidy. You'll never have something that everyone likes; that's reality. Will I take this right now? Absolutely.

So here's the breakdown, it doesn't add up to much.

We all knew it was coming: there was no way our federal and provincial governments could shut down large swathes of the economy — asking people to stay at home and closing businesses, schools and daycare centres — without putting together a mindbogglingly large aid package to help individuals and companies weather the economic storm these measures have wrought.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a headline-grabbing $82-billion aid package — a significant increase from the $1 billion he pledged last week, to say the least. And this is only the “first phase” of the government’s plan, according to Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

But that staggering $82-billion figure doesn’t tell the whole story: the bulk of it, $55 billion, is the price tag the government puts on extending the tax deadline until June 1 and allowing businesses and individuals to defer paying their taxes until Aug. 31.

Yet even this number is misleading because the government is deferring, not lowering, taxes and will therefore recoup most of the money at a later date. Yes, the government will forgo any interest it could have earned on that money, while paying interest on the debt it will have to take on to offset the temporary loss. The deficit will go up by $55 billion or so in this budget year or the next, but there will be a corresponding drop the year after that.

So what we are really left with is a $27.4-billion aid package, which is relatively small by comparison, but still nothing to scoff at.

This includes up to $10 billion to provide short-term payments to workers and parents who are unable to work and do not qualify for employment insurance (EI); up to $5 billion to provide longer-term support for people who are facing unemployment and don’t qualify for EI; $5.5 billion to provide a larger GST tax credit to individuals and families in low- and modest-income brackets; $1.9 billion to increase the Canada Child Benefit by $300 per kid; and $3.8 billion to help prevent layoffs by providing some small businesses with a temporary wage subsidy.

Is all this really necessary? Much of this aid will not reach Canadians until April or May, raising serious questions about what people who are out of work, and out of savings, are supposed to do in the meantime. It is also a fairly large sum of money, even if it’s substantially less than the $82-billion figure the government is selling us. But, seeing as we all seem to be socialists now, why the heck not? While we’re at it, why not throw a few hundred million dollars to some pet Liberal causes to appease the base?

Oh, right. That’s exactly what they did. The Liberals’ plan also includes such measures as $305 million for a new “distinctions-based” (whatever that means) Indigenous Community Support Fund, $157.5 million to support homeless people and $50 million for women and children fleeing violence.

I certainly don’t want to play down the needs of these constituencies. Many First Nations reserves have been experiencing sanitation issues and financial difficulties for years. Homeless people who are living on the streets or packed into overcrowded shelters are at increased risk of catching, and spreading, coronavirus. And with everyone facing the prospect of being cooped up in their houses for months on end, we could very easily see a significant increase in domestic violence.

But at the same time, using this as an opportunity to, say, improve water quality on reserves or provide more money to people living in communities that had little to no economic opportunities before the outbreak and were already heavily dependent on government largesse is not going to do anything to blunt the impact of the current crisis. And why specifically give money to homeless and women’s shelters, instead of offering broader supports to a range of charities and religious institutions that are facing the prospect of declining revenues and a huge increase in community needs?

It’s hard to shake the feeling that the Liberals were trying to pad this aid package with funding designed to appease their ideological base, rather than respond to a national crisis. And while some of these items may be worthy, we need to ensure that government spending is targeted toward helping us all get through the inevitable depression that will be caused by this unprecedented shutdown of the entire country.

And make no mistake about it: a reckoning is coming. John Maynard Keynes said governments should save during good times and spend during bad. We spent during good times and now we’re in for some really, really bad times.

But what the heck, we’re all socialists now.

National Post

It'll be interesting to see which businesses get these subsidies, how long they last and what comes next.

As I said, most of this is simply designed to keep people paying their bills, the banks get their money while nothing of substance is done for people.

The biggest chunk is no payments at all, simply deferring tax payments for a couple of months which will hurt as much in the end as it helps near term. People who have no money now and owe anything will have even less and still owe.

This is a really brutal package.​

 

[Cherrydon]

P.s. my heart goes out to OHL insiders who was laid off and his girlfriend in 14 day self isolation. Wish you the best!!! Your inside track on things has always been awesome and I cannot thank you enough for what you do for the OHL fans.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

So here's the breakdown, it doesn't add up to much.

It'll be interesting to see which businesses get these subsidies, how long they last and what comes next.

As I said, most of this is simply designed to keep people paying their bills, the banks get their money while nothing of substance is done for people.

The biggest chunk is no payments at all, simply deferring tax payments for a couple of months which will hurt as much in the end as it helps near term. People who have no money now and owe anything will have even less and still owe.

This is a really brutal package.​

I would agree any subsidy or payment merely helps keep the lights on, or say pay rent for the month etc.. One thing people forget about especially in the service industry is some business can't strictly run a takeout service. It's a lot easier when you have a restaurant and you people are coming in and you do takeout orders because people are ordering different things so you can service many needs. If you strictly go takeout how do you know how many orders you will have? What will they order? How much do they want??? This is a good way for a restaurant to get rid of stock for instance if some things would go stale. Of course when you run out do you continue takeout? What do you order if it's only takeout??? The package won't make much of a difference overall. Any loans still have to get repaid etc...

 

[windsor7]

LOL awww... you missed disagreeing with me. That's funny

Whatever makes u sleep at nite.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Are anyone on serious? My comments were quoted from U.S. and Canadian health officials that stated to expect waves of this and it will last a few months to as many as maybe 18 months. Any fool can see if one country stops it cold and reopens borders/gets soft on social distancing, well it comes right back. Until all countries contain/ create a vaccine this will go on and on. Wait till the thousands to a few million reported overseas Canadians come home. It's only been 8 days since our 1st cancelled Spits game. 627 died in Italy just yesterday!!
As far as the priority draft, we're talking cancelling schools till next year and we're supposed to be worried about drafting kids that may or may not want to play/sign with your team? Worse yet, still alive? No interviews? That truly makes no sense to me. Wake up, hockey is not on the radar for the government right now.
500000 applied for unemployment just this week and you think the government is gonna bail out the rich for the sake of the OHL? Get real. Any of the affected millions last priority will be looking to buy entertainment/ OHL tix while they try to keep a roof over their families and feed them. My pension alone took a whooping. Lost over 30% in one week.
Hockey realistically at any level will probably never be the same as before. Trust me I truly hope we all get through this without losing family and friends. I wish nothing more than NORMAL life to be able to resume including hockey. Those that need this draft to pacify their hockey love and cope for what is coming, I understand. No league at any level has faced the current dilemma. My wish to all of you is to be safe and stay healthy, follow the restrictions and warnings. The sooner everyone gets on board with that, the sooner we will kick this horrible disaster.

Yes in certain areas it will get worse before it gets better. Sports still have to make plans for the present and moving forward now. They have their business and bottom line to worry about. They have to trust the people in their organization, friends and family, players etc.. are taking the proper precautions. They aren't going to bail out OHL teams but that doesn't preclude the OHL from going through with an online draft which is 3 weeks away. Yes the interview process would suck but you can still video chat, face time, talk on phone with said prospects. Those prospects most likely will be at home doing said interviews with many teams.

Like it or not a lot of the future prognosis of individuals etc.. Depends on those 300,000 that went on vacation during March Break. Approximately 66% of people exposed either comes from travelling or being in contact with said traveller. So practice that social distancing, stay away from people that traveled. The ones getting back from vacation don't go out grocery shopping, don't go eat at some restaurant(like I know some did) get the heck into your house, quarantine and self isolate for 2 weeks. Give the health specialists a chance to get more kits, ventilators, masks etc... So it gives them a fighting chance to help you.

 

[Cherrydon]

Now Covid officially here in Windsor. Not that many didn't think it was already. Symptoms on the 11th and tested the 16th, results on the 20th almost 21st. Not good enough.

 

[OHLTG]

That's one of the biggest issues - the unknown and the delays.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Now Covid officially here in Windsor. Not that many didn't think it was already. Symptoms on the 11th and tested the 16th, results on the 20th almost 21st. Not good enough.

The results of the tests for citizens have always been taking 4 days. It will take up to 7 now but this just isn't like a blood test when you go to the doctors and can get the results in 24-48 hours. It may not be perfect but lets look at the numbers.

Total number of patients approved for COVID-19 testing to date in Ontario 23384
Negative 15768
Currently Under Investigation 7239
Confirmed Positive 369
Resolved 6
Deceased 2

The number of negative tests compared to tests performed is reason for optimism. There is still a few more weeks of shutdown coming most likely. Let's see where those numbers stand in 2 weeks. If the investigated ones are significantly reduced, more negative tests and fewer patients approved we should be in great shape.

 

[windsor7]

The results of the tests for citizens have always been taking 4 days. It will take up to 7 now but this just isn't like a blood test when you go to the doctors and can get the results in 24-48 hours. It may not be perfect but lets look at the numbers.

Total number of patients approved for COVID-19 testing to date in Ontario 23384
Negative 15768
Currently Under Investigation 7239
Confirmed Positive 369
Resolved 6
Deceased 2

The number of negative tests compared to tests performed is reason for optimism. There is still a few more weeks of shutdown coming most likely. Let's see where those numbers stand in 2 weeks. If the investigated ones are significantly reduced, more negative tests and fewer patients approved we should be in great shape.

Im thinking at least a month left of shutdown.

 

[Buttsy]

Lots of interesting feedback on your forum expected of course. At this point I am reasonably satisfied with the response from both our Federal and Provincial governments. With the knowledge we were given based on the fact it originated half a world away however should allow us to be proactive where some of our European friends did not have this advantage.

We are so early in this process that we will need to continue to be aggressive in our responses and also creative to try and address the fallout that will inevitably come from shutting down our countries normal basic daily activities.

Stay well everyone and may we get through the peak of the issue soon in order that we can then address the collateral damage from it which will be severe.

 

[Buttsy]

There's a simple solution to the economics of all this, freeze them.

Freeze all accounts so all financial transactions are suspended. All current obligations are frozen in place to be resumed at a specified time

I know it is drastic and I believe the plan was to try not to get the governments to involved with the banks and markets etc. But I am surprised they didn’t do something like this basically suspend all trading and freeze it in place until it makes sense to resume activities. Hmm retroactive to about 14-21 days ago in my case would be ideal! With my age and with my intended timeframe for when I need the money I should have time to weather the storm as inevitably it will bounce back. I have somewhat stopped looking or worrying about it ...... it gonna be ugly for a while!

 

[member 71782]

I know it is drastic and I believe the plan was to try not to get the governments to involved with the banks and markets etc. But I am surprised they didn’t do something like this basically suspend all trading and freeze it in place until it makes sense to resume activities. Hmm retroactive to about 14-21 days ago in my case would be ideal! With my age and with my intended timeframe for when I need the money I should have time to weather the storm as inevitably it will bounce back. I have somewhat stopped looking or worrying about it ...... it gonna be ugly for a while!

It's a question of the priority of the politics.

We have forty years of neo liberal economics that prioritizes capital above all else. Italy is in the shape it is because the first priority was the financial markets. All the BS in the US has been to protect the financial markets. In Canada they're still trying to protect the financial markets and it's the same story across nearly every Western nation.

First day it was apparent this was going to become a pandemic freeze the markets, no one loses, no one gains. Then the focus can be prioritized, health and safety first without having to cause financial panic. This gives lots of time to remove financial panic from the equation. Anyone working would still get paid but with all non essential services shutdown there's no need to spend on non essential consumerism. Any products needed, personal hygiene,food production etc all goes through the government for price controls/distribution. This ensures there is no price gouging, steady supply helps prevent hoarding and the needed businesses still have their production costs covered.

If financials have been suspended no one falls behind. People pick up where they left off and so do all businesses. Whatever time has transpired is simply wiped off the calendar when it comes to bills. If you had years worth of car payments you still have a years worth of car payments with no extra interest added on. Since no one is losing anything, people or businesses there's no need for corporate bailouts,no need for small businesses to permanently go out of business.

Giving money that can't be spent, no need to spend allows a huge kick start to getting the economy rolling. Imagine everyone waking up tomorrow with an extra $6,000 in the bank and pent up demand to go along with a return to normalcy.

No person or business is worse off financially. No controversial corporate bailouts at the expense of taxpayers, many who would have otherwise lost everything and likely a much better outcome for all in terms of health and safety.

It makes sense unless you're a neo liberal who feels life and death are just commodities to make a profit off of. Unfortunately that's the thought behind most Western governments and the corporate interests that control them.

 

[member 71782]

On the bad side of this in Windsor-Essex, we just saw our first confirmed case and from what I was told twenty minutes ago we are about to have more confirmed deaths than confirmed cases.

This morning there were three more suspected cases. Don't have the details but between then and now its gotten exponentially worse.

This is from someone who works in healthcare in an area directly affected.

 

[dirty12]

It's a question of the priority of the politics.

We have forty years of neo liberal economics that prioritizes capital above all else. Italy is in the shape it is because the first priority was the financial markets. All the BS in the US has been to protect the financial markets. In Canada they're still trying to protect the financial markets and it's the same story across nearly every Western nation.

First day it was apparent this was going to become a pandemic freeze the markets, no one loses, no one gains. Then the focus can be prioritized, health and safety first without having to cause financial panic. This gives lots of time to remove financial panic from the equation. Anyone working would still get paid but with all non essential services shutdown there's no need to spend on non essential consumerism. Any products needed, personal hygiene,food production etc all goes through the government for price controls/distribution. This ensures there is no price gouging, steady supply helps prevent hoarding and the needed businesses still have their production costs covered.

If financials have been suspended no one falls behind. People pick up where they left off and so do all businesses. Whatever time has transpired is simply wiped off the calendar when it comes to bills. If you had years worth of car payments you still have a years worth of car payments with no extra interest added on. Since no one is losing anything, people or businesses there's no need for corporate bailouts,no need for small businesses to permanently go out of business.

Giving money that can't be spent, no need to spend allows a huge kick start to getting the economy rolling. Imagine everyone waking up tomorrow with an extra $6,000 in the bank and pent up demand to go along with a return to normalcy.

No person or business is worse off financially. No controversial corporate bailouts at the expense of taxpayers, many who would have otherwise lost everything and likely a much better outcome for all in terms of health and safety.

It makes sense unless you're a neo liberal who feels life and death are just commodities to make a profit off of. Unfortunately that's the thought behind most Western governments and the corporate interests that control them.

Bail outs designed to ensure essentials are available to all does not seem a bad thing. In Utopia, the food and clean water and energy and medicine needed for survival is delivered magically?

 

[member 71782]

Bail outs designed to ensure essentials are available to all does not seem a bad thing. In Utopia, the food and clean water and energy and medicine needed for survival is delivered magically?

Bail outs don't provide essentials, they provide cash to prop up financial markets.

During the WWs there were no bail outs. There was government ensuring production was directed towards needs at a fixed price that prevented profiteering. Similar approach to what I suggested with the difference coming from modern day neo liberal economic policy, capital being prioritized over suspended market controlling monetary/economic policy which resulted in national interests being the priority.

It's not utopian, similar tactics have been used to deal with problems on this scale. It's modern priorities versus national health and safety interests and all governments still have those powers or can create them in legislation that can be drafted in under an hour.

It's basic wartime/emergency powers that every nation has.

 

[dirty12]

Bail outs don't provide essentials, they provide cash to prop up financial markets.

During the WWs there were no bail outs. There was government ensuring production was directed towards needs at a fixed price that prevented profiteering. Similar approach to what I suggested with the difference coming from modern day neo liberal economic policy, capital being prioritized over suspended market controlling monetary/economic policy which resulted in national interests being the priority.

It's not utopian, similar tactics have been used to deal with problems on this scale. It's modern priorities versus national health and safety interests and all governments still have those powers or can create them in legislation that can be drafted in under an hour.

It's basic wartime/emergency powers that every nation has.

money and tax relief and national bank backing grace periods for re-payment schedules for those affected by the crisis, and support for manufacturers willing to alter production lines in order to produce goods needed to battle the virus would be considered government interference and contrary to neo-liberal ideology.
Simply shutting it down as you have suggested just isn’t an option, goods and services are essential. More so now than 1919.